the job market and placement, 1999-2001

The Job Market and Placement, 1999-2001Author(s): Sue DavisSource: PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 35, No. 3 (Sep., 2002), pp. 605-609Published by: American Political Science AssociationStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1554699 .

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The Job Market and Placement, 1999-2001

Sue Davis, Denison University

s I started working on the placement report, I asked myself-as

well as many friends and colleagues- what do we want to know about the job market and why do we want to know it? I rapidly followed with the questions, "Are there enough data to answer these questions?" and "How can we have better data so that future answers will be better than what I can provide here?" But we'll come back to those last two questions at the end.

The quick answer to the question "What do we want to know about the job market" is: EVERYTHING! The reasons we want to know about the job market are so that we can get jobs; so that we can help our students and colleagues get jobs; so that we can determine how mobile we might be if we start thinking about moving jobs; so we can gauge the health and vitality as well as the direction of the discipline; and so on. Among the questions we would all like answers to are: What are the jobs? Where are the jobs? At what level are the jobs? How can I maximize my chances of getting a job? In what fields might there be more opportunities when I finish my degree? Are there jobs at the more senior levels or are most at the level of assistant professor? Unfortu- nately, since I do not have substantial amounts of data on the topic, I cannot report substantially on nonacademic jobs and the nonacademic job market. But this is a topic that APSA wants to fol- low and will make greater efforts to report on in the future.

But with limited time and data, I had to come up with a more refined and operationalized set of questions (with accompanying answers) than that. The consensus was that what we need to know about the academic job market can be divided into two parts: (1) information about what colleges and universities are looking for in a new or replacement hire that will be of use to grad students, their advisors, and other job seekers; (2) information about who was placed this year so that we can have an evolving view of what the discipline looks like demographically, so

Sue Davis is a former APSA staffer who is now a professor at Denison University. She was a program director at APSA from 1999 to 2002.

we can gauge whether we are competi- tive on the market, and judge whether supply and demand are roughly equiva- lent or whether there are imbalances between those on the job market and the jobs that are out there.

What Colleges and Universities Are Looking For

In trying to determine what colleges and universities are looking for, the best data we have are job ads. So I looked at the APSA jobs newsletter, Personnel Service Newsletter, from 1999 through 2001 to see if I could come up with a picture of the trends in the market, and then tried to capture some of the longer-term trends by calculating the average number of jobs listed for the first time in PSN from 1985 to 1994. I have done this in two ways, each of which has limitations, but can still tell us something. First, I looked at the total number of jobs listed in PSN for the first time over the entire academic year. Second, I took a snapshot approach, looking at the month of October in each of the three years.

The first method of analyzing PSN is to look at how many jobs were listed in the newsletter in each academic year, August through July. Since some jobs are listed more than once, I only counted "first listings" of jobs to avoid double counting. Figure 1 shows these numbers for three academic years: 1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2. These data comprise all first listings in PSN, including administrative posts, visiting positions, and applied jobs.

In 1998-99, there were 880 first listings; in 1999-2000 there were 1002 first listings; in 2000-2001 there were 1119 listings; and in 2001-2 I estimate there to be 1050 first listings.' There has been a steady growth in first listings in PSN since 1995-96 when there were only 616 first listings. However, we still have not reached the record of 2012 jobs listed in 1988 or the average 1668 first listings per year from the years 1985 to 1994. In 2001-2, job listings will likely be between the levels for 1999-2000 and 2000-2001, and it is too early to see a trend developing.

These data come a little more into focus when one considers the number of doctorates earned each year (see Figure 2). In 1999, there were

1016 doctorates awarded in political science and related fields. Of that number, 653 were in political science or government, 120 in international relations or international affairs, 119 in public administration, and 124 in public policy. In 2000, 986 doctorates were awarded, of which 670 were in political science or government, 77 in international relations or international affairs, 102 in public administration, and 137 in public policy (NORC 2002). Data for the graduating class of 2001 are not yet available.

There are limitations on what these data can tell us. Though nominally, the number of jobs and the number of Ph.D.'s granted are roughly equal, we cannot simply compare the number of jobs listed and the number of students earning doctorates in a given year. For example, ABDs on the market are not included, so the number of job seekers is higher than earned doctorate figures might imply. Senior scholars also apply for jobs, ranging from advanced assistant professors to full professors; those seeking administrative positions further swell the job-seeking ranks. Some Ph.D.s choose to seek nonacademic or postdoc- toral opportunities-including programs like the Presidential Management Intern (PMI) program-or do not go on the market the fall after they graduate for myriad reasons. In addition, public administration and public policy are fields that have alternative job listing services. Thus, the PSN listings do not adequately capture opportunities available in these fields. These are but a few of the limitations we have to consider in drawing conclusions about what these numbers tell us.

The job market today is not as ro- bust as it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In addition, there are far more graduate students today. Com- pared to the current Ph.D. production of over 1000 doctorates per year, an average of 719 doctorates were awarded per year from 1990-94 in political science and related fields (NORC 2002). So 20 years ago, there were more jobs for fewer Ph.D.s.

While interesting, this aggregate method obscures information about which many of us care deeply, including whether listed positions were tenure track; at what rank or level the position was advertised; the field in which the

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Figure 1 First Listings in PSN 1998-2001

Figure 2 Earned Doctorates in Political Science

Ph.D.s Awarded 1200 _- -j

1000 Z i _

800

600

400

200

/ I i /

1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002

I Job Listings Source: PSN, 1998-2002. Note: Data for the year 2001-2 is an estimate accounting for actual first listings from August 2001 through May 2002 plus average first listings for June and July (three-year average of 49 per month).

position was listed; and so on. So to add some dimension to these data, we look more closely at one month in each year. According to the Survey of Earned Doctorates, the vast majority of graduate students, regardless of field, assert a preference for a tenure-track academic job. While that is not a universal desire, it is the operating assumption here so we focus only on tenure-track and tenured positions in the U.S. and Canada, ex- cluding endowed chairs, administrative positions, directorships, and applied jobs. Since October is typically one of the largest issues of PSN, it is October I analyze in depth. (These data include first and subsequent listings and only one month of those, so the data are not comparable to the first-listings or earned- doctorate data above.)

In October 1999, PSN listed 237 jobs. In October 2000, it listed 398 jobs, and in October 2001, 351 jobs. Table 1 shows how many jobs were listed by rank and field. The vast majority of jobs are at the assistant professor level, with between 64% and 65% of jobs listed at that rank in each year. Open and multi- ple-rank listings were the next most common ranging from 18% of listings in 1999 to 30% in 2001. This may be part of a growing trend to "cast a wide net," but the evidence presented here is inconclusive to draw that conclusion. Senior positions (only 16 listings for full professor) are rare. However, there is substantial anecdotal evidence to suggest that most senior positions are not filled in this way. Instead senior scholars tend either to

700 600 500 400 300 200 100

0

Politcal Science and Related Fields

MS oirar

1999 2000

* PolSci/Govt * Int Rel/Affairs * PA * Public Policy

Source: NORC 2002. Data for 2001 graduates not yet available.

be recruited by a university, or the scholar courts the universitv to elicit an offer.

By field, the largest percentage of job listings is in American politics, followed by comparative, international relations, and political theory. The next largest category is usually "other," which includes many listings that are multi field and so don't fit easily into one of the other cate- gories.2 In addition, ethnic-, racial-, and gender-politics jobs are often found under "other" as are urban politics, criminal justice, open-field positions, technology and politics, and more.

Next I look at breakdowns of how often certain specialties or subspecialties were mentioned in PSN ads. I have done this for each field that had at least 15% of the overall job listings-American, comparative, and IR. Most ads listed more than one specialty or subspecialty. This information can be of some limited utility in determining market trends and what the hot subfields are, but no con- crete conclusions can be drawn from this (see Table 2) While few conclusions can be drawn from Table 2, it is interesting to see what the most commonly mentioned specialties are in these issues of PSN for the three largest fields in the

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Meeting; broadening listings in PSN to include more nonacademic job opportunities; offering information through the Careers in Political Science booklet about a wide variety of uses for under- graduate and graduate degrees in the discipline; and encouraging Ph.D.-granting departments to broaden their train- ing to include careers oriented towards teaching and nonacademic jobs through APSA's website6 and through programs such as Preparing Future Faculty.7

Graduate directors were also asked what kinds of jobs their students took. These responses are problematic since an average of 33% of students are reported as "don't know," or the response is missing during 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. Graduate directors report that 28% of students in 1999-2000 and 23% of students in 2000-2001 found jobs in Ph.D.-granting institutions. M.A. departments accounted for an additional 6% and 10% respectively. Undergradu- ate departments hired 17% of the class of 1999-2000 and 20% of the class of 2000-2001. The high level of missing data makes any conclusions extremely tenuous (see Table 3).

discipline; this information may be of use to faculty and students trying to determine the hot areas on the market.

Who Was Placed: Charac- teristics and Outcome of the Placement Classes of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001

Each year, APSA does a placement survey in which we ask placement directors or directors of graduate study to tell us about the placement experiences of their students. For the 1999-2000 placement year (termed the 2000 placement survey), 81 schools reported on 830 students.3 For the 2000-2001 placement year (termed the 2001 placement survey), 82 schools reported on 771 students.4

During the 1999-2000 placement sea- son, 78% of students were reported as placed. Of students placed, 49% found permanent jobs, 42% found temporary jobs, and 9% found jobs outside the United States. In 2000-2001, the placement rate was 73%. Slightly more students were reported with permanent jobs. Of those placed, 55% found permanent jobs and only 34% found temporary jobs. The number of people taking jobs outside the U.S. rose from 9% to 11% (see Figure 3).5

The large number of temporary jobs, and that fewer than half of those on the market find permanent jobs, are causes

for concern. APSA has been following the issue of part-time and adjunct faculty for a number of years and is a founding member of the Coalition on the Academic Work- force, a multidisciplinary working group that col- lects information on the issue and works to address the problem. In addition, the APSA Council and staff, and faculty around the coun- try have been discussing and working on issues related to placement, including short courses and panels on profes- sional development of- fered through the Annual

Figure 3 Placement Success

by percentage 40 35 30- 25 - 20 -

15- 10- 5- 0- L

1999

*I permanent outside US don't know

;I I.

a.

2000

m

2000-2001

23% 10: % : 20%

4% 35% Know

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2001

temporary not placed

1999-2000

17%

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12% of faculty as well. And APSA membership statistics for 2001 showed 9% minority membership.

By field, the placement classes for these two years are roughly 30% American, 26% comparative, 21% IR, 11% political theory, and less than 10% public administration, public policy, methodology, and other. While the comparison may be imperfect, some tentative conclusions may be drawn by comparing the percentage in each field from the Placement Survey with job listings in PSN. So in Table 5, you see the results. The percentages line up pretty well, with the exception of comparative politics where there is a six or seven percentage point spread between job listings and job candidates. This may indicate an overproduction of Ph.D.s in that field, but the evidence is inconclusive. We also have no way of knowing how subspecialties match up, but still, I think the comparison is interesting.

Conclusions The job market is a difficult and

complicated phenomenon. However, I can offer some tentative conclusions from what was presented above.

Though it has been improving over the past several years, the job market has not recovered to the levels common a decade ago. Job ads are not an ideal indicator but are comparable over time. Between 1998-99 and 1999-2000, there was a 14% increase in the number of jobs listed in PSN. Between 1999-2000 and 2000-2001, there was another 12% increase in listings. Although 2001-2 is

The demographic characteristics of these two placement classes are quite similar (see Table 4); both classes are mostly white and predominantly male. Approximately two-thirds of the students are U.S. citizens. Women accounted for 34% and 36% of the placement classes respectively. The percentage of African Americans on the market dipped slightly in 2000 to 4% but recovered to 6% in 2001. This has been very stable over the past few years. The percentage of Latinos on the job market is unchanged at 3%. Asian Americans seem to be climbing slightly as a percentage of the job market. In 1998, only 1% of those on the market were Asian American, in 1999 they were 2%, and in 2000 they were 3%. Very few Native Americans/American Indians, under 1%, are looking for jobs in political science.

Political science still has work to do on diversifying the discipline. In the academy writ large, the average percentage of women increased from 32% to 39% between 1987-99 (American Council on Education 2001). In 2000, women composed 34%, and in 2001, 36% of the placement class. According to the 200<}2001 APSA Annual Survey, women accounted for 23% of faculty in all departments, and APSA membership

data showed 27% women. The percentage of minorities among all faculty also increased from 10% to 15% (American Council on Education 2001). In political science, the minority composition of the placement class was 9% for 2000 and slightly over 12% for 2001. According to the 2000-2001 APSA Departmental Survey, minorities accounted for around

608 PS September 2002



not yet over (June and July are missing at the time of writing this report), an increase this year is unlikely. The most likely outcome is similar or slightly decreased listings in 2000-2001.

Is the market turning? That's hard to say. One worry is short-term pressures on state budgets. Almost all states are facing budget shortfalls, and in all but three states higher education budgets have already been cut (National Asso- ciation of State Budget Officers 2002). The Chronicle of Higher Education re- ports a tightening of the job market in many fields. A number of schools- including the Universities of Arizona, Cincinnati, South Carolina, and Virginia-have already instituted hiring freezes (Smallwood 2002).

The issue of state budgets becomes of even greater concern when we look at the distribution of degree-granting institutions and the number of faculty they employ (see Tables 6 and 6a). More than 70% of colleges and universities are public institutions and they employ 36% of faculty in four-year institutions (those granting bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees) and 64% of two year or com- munity college faculty.

Notes 1. Through May 2002, there were 952 first

listings. Averaging the June and July first listings over the previous three years, an average of 49 jobs are listed for the first time in PSN during those months. This would place the yearly total for 2001-2 at 1050 falling between the first listings for 2000-2001 and 1999-2000.

2. When employers enter their job ads into PSN, they choose the category in which the job

References American Council on Education. 2001. "Facts

In Brief: Percentage of Women and Minor- ity Faculty Grew Between 1987 and 1999." <http://www.acenet.edu/hena/facts_in_brief/ 2001/05_28_01_fib.cfm> (July 3, 2002).

Karen Young Kreeger. 1999. "Preparing for Changing Roles. The Scientist. <http://209. 235.241.4/teach/resources/essays/kreeger.cfm> (July 3, 2002).

will be listed. Hence, the "other" category is highly idiosyncratic and therefore it is difficult to analyze.

3. The survey was sent to all Ph.D.-granting institutions, of which there are 129. So the response rate was 63%, and I extended effort to ensure that the top producing departments (those producing 20 or more Ph.D.s per year in political science) were included in this sample.

National Association of State Budget Officers. 2002. The Fiscal Survey of States. <http://www.nasbo.org/Publications/ fiscsurv/may2002fiscalsurvey.pdf> (July 3, 2002).

NORC. A Profile of Research Doctorates, 1960-2000. <http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/ issues/docdata.htm> (July 3, 2002).

Smallwood, Scott. 2002. "The Tightening Job

4. The response rate was 64%, with the same logic and caveats as the previous footnote.

5. In raw terms, there were 59 and 61 students respectively.

6. APSANet has information on jobs and careers including links to online job-searching tools for academic and nonacademic positions at <www.apsanet.org/jobplc/onlinejobs.cfm>.

7. For more about PFF, see Kreeger 1999; Weibl 2000.

Market." The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 11, A10.

Weibl, Ric. 2000. "Preparing Future Social Sci- ence and Humanities Faculty Program." Coun- cil of Graduate Schools Communicator 33(5): 6. Also available online: <www.apsanet. org/about/chairs/pff/participatingassociations. cfm> (July 3, 2002).

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the job market and placement, 1999-2001

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