the islamic state: a video introduction with aaron zelin
TRANSCRIPT
The Islamic State
Aaron Y. Zelin
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The Islamic State History
● Jama‘at al-Tawhid wa-l-Jihad (2000-2004)
● al-Qa‘ida in the Land of Two River (2004-
2006)
● Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin (2006)
● Islamic State of Iraq (2006-2013)
● Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (2013-2014)
● The Islamic State (2014-Present)
The Islamic State
Breaking ‘San Remo’
The Islamic State
The Islamic State
Reasons for Resurgence
● American Withdrawal
● Continued Criminal Enterprise
● The Syrian Jihado New recruits, weapons, sources of funding
● Prison Breaks
● Iraqi Sunni Grievances
The Syrian Jihad
July 2011: Jihadi Entrance Into Syria
August 2011: Sunni Foreign Fighters Begin Coming to Syria
January 2012: Jabhat al-Nusra Officially Announces Itself
December 2012: U.S. Designation of Jabhat al-Nusra
April 2013: Islamic State of Iraq Enters Syria
May 2013: Shia Foreign Fighters Join the Syrian Conflict
January 2014: Rebel Backlash Against ISIS
February 2014: al-Qaeda Disaffiliates Itself with ISIS
The Iraq Jihad
December 2011: The United States withdraws from Iraq
July 2012: ISI’s Breaking the Walls Campaign
December 2012: Beginning of Sunni Protest Movement
April 2013: Islamic State of Iraq Enters Syria
July 2013: Prison Breaks/ISIS’s Soldier’s Harvest Campaign
December 2013: Maliki Destroys Ramadi Protest Camp
February 2014: Fall of Fallujah/Ramadi
June 2014: Fall of Mosul
Jihadi Governance
● Social Serviceso Medical
o Food
o Law and Order
o Education
Historical Foreign Fighter Mobilizations
● Afghanistan, 1979-1992: 5,000
● Chechnya, 1990s: 1,000
● Afghanistan, 1990s: 1,000
● Afghanistan, post-9/11: 1,000
● Iraq, 2003-2007: 4,000
● Syria, 2012-2015: 10,000-20,000
How Many Have Gone?
Nationalities Represented: ~90
Killed: 5,000+
Biggest Regional Draw:
Arab world and Western Europe
Three Spikes
January 2012: Official Public announcement of Jabhat
al-Nusra
May 2013: Official public announcement of Hizb Allah
fighting in Syria
June 2014: The Islamic State announces the Caliphate
Reasons For Unprecedented Mobilization
● Ease of Travel
● Legacy Facilitation and Logistics Networks
● Social Media
● Emotional Resonance
● 5-Star Jihad
● Religious: Historical and Millenarian Pull
● Anti-Shi’a
● Caliphate Project
The Caliphate Project
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, July 1:
“We make a special call to the scholars, fuqaha, and callers, especially the
judges, as well as people with military, administrative, and service expertise,
and medical doctors and engineers of all different specializations and fields.
We call them and remind them to fear Allah, for their emigration is wajib
‘ayni (an individual obligation)”
The Caliphate Project
● Larger pool of recruits
● Identity
● Empowermento Arab world
o Western Europe
● Opportunityo ‘The Jihadi Dream’
● Regaining Dignityo Agency
Priorities
● al-Qaeda:o Attack the West
● The Islamic Stateo State building
The Islamic State v. al-Qa‘ida
2005: Zawahiri and Atiyyat Allah Letters
2013: Issues Over Syrian Jihad
2014: Disaffiliation and War
War for the Future of the Global Jihadi Movement
● Generational
● Differences of Manhaj (methodology)
● Jihad of the elite vs. jihad of the masses
The Caliphate Project
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, November 14:
“We ask every individual amongst them to join
the closest wilayah to him, and to hear and
obey the wali appointed by us for it.”
August 9 January 6
Governance Is Hard
● From legitimate social services to
propaganda
● The Interview model
Inspired and external operations
So oh muwahhid wherever you may be, hinder those who want to harm your brothers and state as
much as you can. The best thing you can do is to strive to your best and kill any disbeliever,
whether he be French, American, or from any of their allies.
If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, then single out the disbelieving American, Frenchman,
or any of their allies. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over
with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him. Do not lack. Do
not be contemptible. Let your slogan be, “May I not be saved if the cross worshipper and taghut
patron survives.”
If you are unable to do so, then burn his home, car, or business. Or destroy his crops. If you are
unable to do so, then spit in his face. If your self refuses to do so, while your brothers are being
bombarded and killed, and while their blood and wealth everywhere is deemed lawful by their
enemies, then review your religion. You are in a dangerous condition because the religion cannot be
established without wala’ and bara’.
Questions?
Thank You For Your Time