the irish economy: october 2009
TRANSCRIPT
Snapshot of the Irish Economy
October 2009
The Sesame Street Introduction
Today’s presentation is brought to you with the letters Y, C, I, G, X and M, some numbers and lots of pictures!
Y = C + I + G + (X – M)
Then and Now
Standardised Unemployment Rate (September): 1984: 15.8%2009: 12.9%
CPI Annual Inflation Rate (September): 1984: + 5.9%2009: – 6.5%
Interest Rate (September): 1984: 13.00% (Central Bank Rediscount Rate)2009: 1.00% (ECB Main Refinancing Rate)
Exchequer Deficit (%GDP):1984: 10.50%2009: 10.75%
Where Next?
Davy Forecasts (Rossa White)
GDP Component
2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
Consumer Spending
-1.0 -7.0 1.5 3.8
Investment -15.5 -27.0 -11.5 2.8
Government Spending
2.6 -1.0 -3.0 -1.5
Exports -1.0 -2.0 3.5 6.0
Imports -2.1 -7.5 1.4 4.9
GDP -3.0 -6.3 1.2 4.1
GNP -2.8 -9.6 0.5 3.9
% Change in Volume
ESRI Forecasts for 2010
Quarterly Economic Forecasts
GDP Component Spring 2009 Summer 2009 Autumn 2009
Consumer Spending
-3.0 -3.0 -2.0
Investment -11.6 -17.2 -15.5
Government Spending
-2.0 -3.0 -2.0
Exports -5.2 -1.4 1.1
Imports -1.1 -4.8 -1.2
GDP -1.2 -2.3 -1.1
GNP -1.4 -2.3 -1.7
Real Annual Growth %
Retail Sales Index (All Businesses)
Earnings
Savings0
10000
20000
30000
40000
savin
gs
2006:Jul 2007:Jan 2007:Jul 2008:Jan 2008:Jul 2009:Jandate
Household Savings in Accounts of 2 Years or less
Source: Central Bank
Borrowings
Source: Central Bank
Unemployment Rates in Ireland
Inflation in Ireland-5
05
10
15
20
25
inflat
1980 1990 2000 2010date
Monthly Annual Inflation Rate
Investment
Investment
Government Balance
The Public Finances
The God That Failed
2007 2008 2009 E
Value Added Tax
Income Tax
Excise
Stamps
Corporation Tax
Capital Gains Tax
Customs
Training & Employment Levy
Unallocated
14,496,588
13,572,410
5,837,878
3,185,602
6,390,625
3,105,495
265,904
2,501
0
13,429,602
13,176,857
5,443,338
1,650,792
5,065,894
1,430,080
248,001
1,032
0
11,420,000
12,475,000
4,634,000
980,000
3,740,000
625,000
230,000
1,000
0
Total 47,249,352 40,777,196 34,400,000
Tax Revenue (€000s)
Jan-Sept 2008 Jan-Sept 2009
Value Added Tax
Income Tax
Excise
Stamps
Corporation Tax
Capital Gains Tax
Customs
Training & Employment Levy
Unallocated
10,998,485
8,690,515
4,150,996
1,358,084
2,121,951
623,926
194,303
692
30,034
8,657,291
7,873,515
3,312,225
679,587
2,601,266
219,482
151,125
988
16,711
Total 28,478,147 23,705,608
Tax Revenue for Period Jan – Sept 2009, €000
Expenditure (€000s)Vote or Group of Votes 2007 2008 2009E
Health & Children 12,448,835 13,745,317 13,426,037
Social & Family Affairs 8,180,934 9,399,098 10,915,679
Education & Science 8,443,974 9,031,516 8,900,030
Other 15,534,992 17,136,863 14,162,658
Total 44,608,735 49,312,794 47,404,404
National Debt
Balance of Trade
Balance of Payments