the irish economy going into 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Snapshot of the Irish Economy
January 2010
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40000
42000
44000
46000
48000
50000
€, m
illio
ns
2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1
Quarterly GDP
1
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant market prices
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
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10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
€, m
illio
ns
2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1
Quarterly GDP
1
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant market prices
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
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10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
€, m
illio
ns
1997:Q1 1999:Q4 2002:Q3 2005:Q2 2008:Q1
Quarterly GDP
1
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant market prices
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
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Components of GDP
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
€, m
illio
ns
2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1
Other Services Industry & UtilitiesTransport & Comm Building & Const.Public Admin & Defence Agri, Forest & Fish
2
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant factor cost by sector
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
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-15
-7.5
0
7.5
15
Gro
wth
Rat
e, %
2007:Q4 2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2
Other Services Industry & UtilitiesTransport and Utilities Building & Const.Public Admin & Defence Agri, Forest & Fish
3
Source: Central Statistics Office
Growth on previous quarter of GDP at constant factor cost by sector
Quarterly GDP Growth Rates
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Quarterly Growth Rates by Sector
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3Other Services 0.9 -1.6 0.5 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2Industry & Utilities -1.6 0.4 -0.6 -12.9 8.7 -0.9 3.0Building & Construction 1.2 -5.1 -7.8 -10.4 -16.0 -7.6 -11.2Public Admin & Defence 0.2 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -1.4 -2.0 -1.3Agriculture, Forest & Fisheries -5.9 -0.7 -0.3 -10.7 13.7 -0.2 -4.1Transport & Communications -0.6 -2.7 -1.5 -2.7 -4.4 -0.4 -2.0
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90
100
110
120
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Value Index Volume Index
4
Source: Central Statistics Office
Value and volume of retail sales for all businesses
Retail Sales Index
90
100
110
120
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Value Index Volume Index
4
Source: Central Statistics Office
Value and volume of retail sales for all businesses
Retail Sales Index
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90
100
110
120
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Value Index Volume Index
5
Source: Central Statistics Office
Value and volume of retail sales excluding motor trade
Retail Sales Index
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-6
-3
0
3
6
Ann
ual C
hang
e, %
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09
CPI All Items
6
Source: Central Statistics Office
12 month change in prices from Consumer Price Index
Price Inflation
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-6
-3
0
3
6
Ann
ual C
hang
e, %
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09
CPI All Items CPI excl. Mortgage Interest
6
Source: Central Statistics Office
12 month change in prices from Consumer Price Index
Price Inflation
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-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Ann
ual C
hang
e, %
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09
Goods Services
7
Source: Central Statistics Office
12 month change in prices, broad sub-indices
Price Inflation
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-10
0
10
20
Ann
ual C
hang
e, %
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09
Energy Utilities
8
Source: Central Statistics Office
12 month change in prices, broad sub-indices
Price Inflation
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30000
40000
50000
60000
€, m
illio
ns
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Current revenue Current spending
Source: Department of Finance
Current receipts and expenditure
Current Account Projections
-20
-10
0
10
20
Ann
ual C
hang
e, %
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09
FoodClothingHousingTransportCommunications
Source: Central Statistics Office
12 month change in prices, detailed sub-indices
Price Inflation
-20
-10
0
10
20
Annua
l Cha
nge,
%
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09
InsuranceHealthEducationAlcoholChildcare
8
Source: Central Statistics Office
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3
6
9
12
15
% o
f la
bour
for
ce
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Unemployment Rate
9
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted standardised unemployment rate
Unemployment Rate
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600
700
800
900
1000
€, g
ross
per
wee
k
2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2
All sectors Private sector Public sector
10
Source: Central Statistics Office
From the Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey
Gross Weekly Earning
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200
400
600
800
1000
1200
€, g
ross
per
wee
k
2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2
Finance, ins. & real estate (K,L)Prof., science & tech. (M)Admin & support (N)Public admin & defence (O)Education (P)Health & social work (Q)Arts & entertainment (R to U)
11
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
€, g
ross
per
wee
k
2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2
Industry (B to E)Construction (F)Motor trades (G)Transportation & storage (H)Accomm. & food service (I)Information & comm (J)
Source: Central Statistics Office
From the Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey
Gross Weekly Earning
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50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Num
ber
of e
mpl
oyee
s
2008:Q1 2008:Q3 2009:Q1
Industry (B to E)Construction (F)Motor trades (G)Transportation and storage (H)Accommodation and food service (I)Information and communication (J)
Source: Central Statistics Office
From the Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey
Employment Numbers
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2008:Q1 2008:Q3 2009:Q1
Financial, insurance and real estate (K,L)Professional, scientific & technical (M)Administrative and support (N)Public administration and defence (O)Education (P)Human health and social work (Q)Arts, entertainment and other recreation (R to U)
12
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80
90
100
110
Num
ber
of e
mpl
oyee
s
2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2
Industry (B to E)Construction (F)Motor trades (G)Transportation & storage (H)Accomm & food service (I)Information & comm (J)
Source: Central Statistics Office
From the Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey
Total Earning Index, by sector
80
90
100
110
2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2
Finance, insur & real estate (K,L)Prof, scientific & technical (M)Admin & support (N)Public admin & defence (O)Education (P)Health & social work (Q)Arts & entertainment (R to U)
13
Source: Central Statistics Office
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50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
€, m
illio
ns
Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Loans to Irish Residents Deposits from Irish Residents
14
Source: Central Bank of Ireland
Data from balance sheets of Irish financial institutions
Loans and Deposits of Irish Residents
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20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
€, m
illio
ns
Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Agreed Maturity Accounts Demand AccountsCurrent Accounts Notice Accounts
15
Source: Central Bank of Ireland
Data from balance sheets of Irish financial institutions
Deposits of Irish Residents
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20000400006000080000100000120000140000160000
€, m
illio
ns
Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Term/revolving loans Residential mortgagesLoans < 1 year Other mortgagesOther loans Instalment/HP/LeasesRepurchase agreements
16
Source: Central Bank of Ireland
Data from balance sheets of Irish financial institutions
Loans to Irish Residents
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-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
€, m
illio
ns
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Exchequer current and capital receiptsExchequer current and capital expenditureExchequer balance on current and capital account
Source: Department of Finance
Current and capital Receipts and Expenditure and Exchequer Balance
Exchequer Receipts, Expenditure and Balance
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30000
40000
50000
60000
€, m
illio
ns
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Current revenue Current spending
Source: Department of Finance
Current receipts and expenditure
Current Account Projections
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3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
€, m
illio
ns2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
VATIncome TaxExcise DutiesStamp DutyCorporation TaxCapital Gains Tax
Source: Department of Finance
Receipts from main tax headings
Tax Receipts
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3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
€, m
illio
ns2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
VATIncome TaxExcise DutiesStamp DutyCorporation TaxCapital Gains Tax
Source: Department of Finance
Receipts from main tax headings
Tax Receipts
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3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
€, m
illio
ns
2002 2004 2006 2008
Health & Children Social & Family AffairsEducation & Science Others
Source: Department of Finance
Expenditure under voted headings
Voted Expenditure
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National Debt