““War isWar isGodGod’’s way ofs way ofteachingteachingAmericans Americans geography.geography.””

--Ambrose Bierce, writer (1842-1914)

THE IRAQTHE IRAQWARSWARS

Mesopotamia, Fertile CrescentMesopotamia, Fertile CrescentOrigin of some of the earliest seed agriculture, citiesOrigin of some of the earliest seed agriculture, cities

Ancient City of BaghdadAncient City of BaghdadFounded 762, became key Islamic capital, Founded 762, became key Islamic capital,

controlled by Arabs and otherscontrolled by Arabs and others

Ottoman (Turkish) Empire to WWIOttoman (Turkish) Empire to WWIIraqis welcomed 1917 British liberation, then fought Brits

British mandate, 1920British mandate, 1920--3232 Mideast dividedbetween Brits, French

Iraqis fought British mandate;

independent 1932

Iraqis ousted Hashemitemonarchy,declared

republic, 1958

King Faisal II

Oil fieldsOil fields

TurkeyTurkey

IraqIraq

Water conflictsWater conflicts

Turkey buildingdams on Tigris &Euphrates rivers

upstream from Iraq

Ethnic &Ethnic &religiousreligiousdivisionsdivisions

Ethnic:Arabs vs.Kurds

Religious:Sunnis vs.Shi’as

Rulers areSunni Arab

Ethnic/religious groups mixed in some regions.

KurdsKurds

Ethnic group in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria.

Many Kurdsfor state ofKurdistan.

States pit Kurdsagainst each other; US betrays Kurds in 1975

IraqiIraqiTribesTribes(some cross(some crossethnic or ethnic or religiousreligiousdivides)divides)

BaBa’’athath Party take power, 1968Party take power, 1968

Arab (ethnic) nationalists;want one Arab country

Against Islamic (religious) fundamentalists

Against Kurdish nationalists, Communists

Saddam took power by 1979,modeled regime on Stalinism;Favored relatives from Tikrit

IRAN (Shi’a Persian) vs.IRAQ (Sunni Arab leaders)

Iraq seized Iran’s oil fields afterIran’s Islamic revolution, but Iran fought to stalemate

Iraqi Shi’as fought for Iraq, not Iran

U.S. supported Iraq with weaponsalso later supplied weapons to Iran

IranIran--Iraq War,Iraq War,19801980--8888

Iranians

Iraqis

Chemical weaponsChemical weaponsIsrael first in Mideast to have

nuclear, chemical arms;Saddam wanted to match

Israel bombs Iraqi reactor, 1981

Both Iran and Iraq usedpoison gas in 1980-88 war

Iraq gassed Kurdish minority

U.S. continued to back Iraq; had sold bio-chemical equipment

RumsfeldmeetsSaddamHalabja 1988

Iraq invades Kuwait, 1990Iraq invades Kuwait, 1990Kuwait small oil-rich monarchy;

Iraq claimed fromOttoman days

U.S. turned againstSaddam, sent troopswith UN backing

Allies paid $52 billion;US paid $9 billion

Gulf War I, 1991Gulf War I, 1991Large coalition drove Iraqisout of Kuwait

Saddam launched missilesat Israel, Saudi Arabia

Allied bombing focusedon troops in open desert

Month of bombingfollowed by 100-hour ground war

Gulf War I, 1991Gulf War I, 1991

Iraqi troops surrender

Gulf War I, 1991Gulf War I, 1991

US bombed retreatingIraqis on “Highway of Death”

from Kuwait to Basra

Gulf War I, 1991Gulf War I, 1991

Iraqi civilians also died;Civilian infrastructure targeted

(water treatment plants)

After Gulf War I, 1991After Gulf War I, 1991“Trying to eliminate Saddam...would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible.... We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq....there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see,violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterallyexceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land.”

From George H.W. Bushand Brent Scowcroft,A World Transformed (1998), pp. 489-90

Chemical releases in Gulf War?Chemical releases in Gulf War?

Bombing of biochemical sites, 1991

Detections ofchemicals in air

Saddam had chemical weapons;did not use them due to retaliation fears

ChemicalChemicalarms bunkersarms bunkersin Iraq, 1991in Iraq, 1991

Detonation of Iraqichemical/biological storage

after end of Gulf War

Possible exposure to troops?

Kuwait oilKuwait oilwell fires, 1991well fires, 1991

Set by withdrawingIraqi forces; alsospilled oil intoPersian Gulf

Depleted Uranium (DU)Depleted Uranium (DU)Dense munitions to penetratetanks, armor. Made fromnuclear waste.

Huge cancer rates insouthern Iraq (387 tonsof DU left behind)

Releases radioactivity whenexplodes or burns, leaves behind dust

82% of U.S combat troops inIraq came in contact with DU dust

Depleted Uranium (DU)Depleted Uranium (DU)

“Agent Orange of the 1990s”

A variety of illnessesreported by military personnel

Increase in personnel cancers, 1991-97

Gulf War SyndromeGulf War Syndrome

Gulf War SyndromeGulf War Syndrome

CAUSES?

Depleted Uranium?

Chemical releases?

Oil well fires?

Pesticides?

A combination?

Iraqi civiliansalso affected:leukemia victimin Basra hospital.

Children of U.S. troops affected

ShiShi’’aa Rebellion against Saddam, 1991Rebellion against Saddam, 1991Bush stopped war when Kuwait goals met

Shi’as revolted as he had urged,but US watched as rebels killed

US felt that Shi’as would form Pro-Iran Islamic state;Saddam meant stable Sunni rule

A democratic Iraq could takecontrol of its oil

SaddamSaddam’’s draining s draining of southern Iraqof southern Iraqmarshes, 1992marshes, 1992

Area was haven for Marsh Arabs, Shi’a rebels

Kurdish Rebellion against Saddam, 1991Kurdish Rebellion against Saddam, 1991Saddam also crushed Kurds in north

U.S. created safe havensfor Kurds, grew intomini-state

Turkey fears examplefor its Kurds, sent troops

Splits among Iraqi Kurds

NoNo--Fly Zones, 1990sFly Zones, 1990s

Iraq cannot send aircraftover Kurdish north andShi’a south

Iraq fires on US, British aircraft

Aircraft often bombIraqi military sites

Economic sanctionsEconomic sanctionsLack of medicines, sanitation,diet led to high infant mortality

Iraq had been modern, educatedtechnological society

Resignations by UN officials;perceive civilians as victims

Iraqi civilians trying to survive;less likely to organize revolt.Saddam can blame US for economy

Economic sanctionsEconomic sanctions

500,000 + children diedsince Gulf War(UN Food & AgricultureOrganization)

Sec. Albright: “price is worth it.”

One reason for less global support for war to oust Saddam

Infant mortality since sanctions

UN weapons inspections, 1990sUN weapons inspections, 1990s

Inspectors destroyednearly all chemical weapons

Inspectors destroyed Iraqinuclear capability (IAEA)

Biological weapons moredifficult to track

Clinton bombing, 1998Clinton bombing, 1998

Iraq blocked some inspections

UN ordered out inspectors

US bombed for 4 days

Inspectors could not return,track developments

Project for a New American Century, 1990sProject for a New American Century, 1990s

Later leaders of Bush IIAdministration(Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Perle etc.)

Pre-emption Doctrine(Don’t need immediate threatto invade)

Start with Iraq, extend to others

Outgoing Defense Sec. Cohen (R):Iraq kept at bay

Former inspectors:Need to return to confirmdisarmament

New cabinet leaders:Regime change no matterwhat weapons Saddam has

G.W. Bush AdministrationG.W. Bush Administration

Hijackers almost all Saudi(none were Iraqis); allIslamic fundamentalists

Some nearly accused Iraq,but no evidence found

Bush decision:Afghanistan first, Iraq later

Intelligence led to decision, or decision led to intelligence?(Clarke, O’Neill on 9/11, WMD)

September 11th, 2001September 11th, 2001

Saddam could aid Bin Laden?Saddam could aid Bin Laden?Bin Laden wanted to fightSaddam on his own in 1991,resented US bases left behind

Bin Laden wants a (religious)Islamic state

Saddam wants a (secular)ethnic Arab state

Bin Laden sees Saddamas “infidel” enemy;Al Qaeda group in Kurdish zone

New U.S. military basesNew U.S. military basesBASE CLUSTERS

1. Gulf War, 1991

2. Yugoslav Wars,1995-99

3. Afghan War,2001

4. Iraq War,2003

“Next to the U.S. nuclear monopoly, there was no more universally recognized symbol of the nation’s superpower status than its overseas basing system.”-- James Blaker, former Senior Advisor to the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1990

Originally unilateralpre-emptive “regime change,”not internal coup

Objections from someformer Gulf WarCommanders (Zinni, Schwarzkopf)

Powell urges Bush to go to UN, appeal on weapons of mass destruction,but little new information

Moves toward war, 2002Moves toward war, 2002

IAEA confirmed nuclear disarmament views(aluminum tube, Niger uranium stories not hold)

No evidence of biochemical arms

Iraq violated ballistic missile ban,ordered to dismantle

If Saddam had chemical weapons,why not used when cornered?

UN inspectors return, 2002UN inspectors return, 2002

Bin Laden opposes Bush and Saddam

Sees war as chance for new Islamiccaliphate in Baghdad

Recruiting new followers,planning attacks?

War might radicalize Muslims,especially if quick and successful?

Fears of terrorismFears of terrorism

War debate in U.S.War debate in U.S.Largest antiwar movement before a war in U.S. history;

Also some pro-war protests

War debate around worldWar debate around world

U.S., Britain, Australia send combat troops;support from 27 smaller governments

Largest protests in capitals backing war

Germany, France, Russia, China, opposed to war, had most votes in UN

Canada, Mexico, most other countriesopposed to US war without UN backing

““Shock and AweShock and Awe””1000+ Cruise missiles in 2 days; more intense bombardment than all 1991

U.S. strategy for Iraqi military to surrender

Civilian casualties & refugeesCivilian casualties & refugees

Kurds fled cities in fear of Saddam

Civilian neighborhoods bombed;Thousands dead or injured.Cluster bombs hit civilians

Reception for U.S. troopsReception for U.S. troopsShi’a Arabs opposed Saddam(yet hostilities greater in south than expected)

Kurds opposed Saddam and Turks

Sunni Arabs in Baghdad, central Iraqfear Shi’ite (& Kurdish) rule

BaghdadBaghdad5 million = 2 x Twin Cities metro area

Capital of Sunni Arab heartlandHalf of population under 15

Winning was the easy partWinning was the easy partNo WMDs found.

Many Iraqis want U.S. to leave now that Saddam captured--the job is done

How to keep together such an ethnically and religiously fragmented country?

Humiliation of foreign occupation?“You have humiliated us more thanour enemies” --Umm Qasr Shi’ite“If [Bush] stays here, he is justanother Saddam” -- Baghdad Shi’ite

ThumbsThumbs--up to thumbsup to thumbs--downdown

Iraqis glad that Saddam gone, andusing newfound freedoms

Shi’ites hated Saddam, but mistrustU.S.-British intentions on oil.

U.S. failure to provide water, power, security from looters, museum looted,but oil ministry guarded.

Shi’ites sensitive to holy sites.

Tensions increase, 2004Tensions increase, 2004

Iraqi “sovereignty” June 2004,but U.S. troops/bases staying

Is Occupation preventing a civil war or worsening internal conflicts?

Sunni & Shi’ite opponentsof U.S. banding together?

Interim GovernmentInterim Government

Lack of democratic history orforeign support for democracy

U.S.-backed exiles divided &unpopular (elite did not suffer)

Training new Iraqi police andtroops has been difficult

Poor Shi’ites are majority; Sunni Arabs & Kurds nervous

Paul Bremer (U.S. administrator)

Iyad Allawi(Secular Shi’itePrime Minister)

Insurgents: Insurgents: BaBa’’athistsathists

Support Saddam’s Ba’ath Party

Secular Arab nationalists(win over with threat of Iran?)

Former military/police whowent underground during war

Stronghold: Sunni TriangleSaddam’s general

Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri

Insurgents: Al Insurgents: Al QuedaQueda in Iraqin Iraq

Support Bin Laden’s Jihad(Struggle) using suicidebombings, kidnappings, terror

Want Sunni religious state

Iraqis, some foreign fighters;not active in Saddam’s Iraq

Stronghold: Fallujahin Sunni Triangle

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

Insurgents: Insurgents: ShiShi’’iteite MahdiMahdi ArmyArmySupport Shi’ite Cleric Al-Sadr,fought U.S. at holiest mosque

Al-Sadr’s dad was killed by Saddam, who saw him as pro-Iran

Anti-U.S. Occupation, want stateled by poor Shi’ite majority

Strongholds: South (Najaf, Kufa),Baghdad (Sadr City)

Moqtada al-Sadr atImam Ali Mosque

in holy city of Najaf

Insurgents: Iraqi nationalistsInsurgents: Iraqi nationalistsSome tribes hated Saddam & oppose foreign occupation

Lost family or friends toU.S. bombing or troops

Do not want U.S. bases orsupport for Israel

U.S. fought Saddam’sworst enemies in 2004: Shi’ites & Iraqi nationalists

Iraqis protest U.S.decision to let Ba’athists

in new police force

Election 2005Election 2005Large turnout by Shi’ite Arabs, Sunni Kurds to elect parliament

Sunni Arabs boycott election, largely left out of government(internal conflict may intensify)

Shi’ites majority in parliament;leaders had been exiled in Iran

Iran ends up with influence inIraq, without firing a shot

PremierIbrahim

al-Jaafari(Shi’ite)

PresidentJalal

Talabani(Kurd)

The TollThe Toll

2000+ U.S. military

200+ U.S. allies

50,000+ Iraqi civilianswww.IraqBodyCount.net

15,000–20,000+ Iraqi military

Countless injured

Domestic Debates in U.S.Domestic Debates in U.S.

Anti-war veterans’ rally, Sept. 2004

How long should U.S. forces stay?

Iraq diverting from anti-terrorism?

Losing international support?(Spain, Central America, East Europe)

Will new gov’t bring freedomor more centralized rule?

Will occupation prevent civil waror cause a civil war?

Pro-war rally,March 2003

How to overcome economic disastersof Saddam, sanctions, and wars?

The Future of IraqThe Future of Iraq