the interconnected biosphere- science at the ocean’s tipping points

8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 115

Oceanography June 2010 115

E L E V E N H A N N U A L R O G E R R E V E L L E C O M M E M O R A I V E L E C U R E

Te Interconnected Biosphere

Science at the Oceanrsquos ipping PointsB Y J A N E L U B C H E N C O A N D L A U R A E P E E S

INRODUCION

Numerous studies have documented

the depletion and disruption o ocean

ecosystems at local to global scales the

consequences o these changes to human

well-being and the need or new atti-

tudes policies and practices to recover

and sustain healthy ocean ecosystems

and the variety o human activities

that depend upon them (Pew Oceans

Commission 2003 US Commission

on Ocean Policy 2004 Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment 2005 United

Nations Environment Programme

2006) Depleted fisheries endangered

turtles and marine mammals dead

zones bleached corals and outbreaks

o jellyfish harmul algal blooms and

diseases are all symptoms o the popula-

tion and ecosystem changes underway

Tese changes are the result o myriad

interacting stressors including over-

fishing chemical and nutrient pollution

use o destructive fishing gear climate

change ocean acidification habitat loss

and introduction o invasive species

However they also reflect the ailure

o current management and policy as

well as a lack o general awareness o the

causes and consequences o depletion

and disruption Te prospect o signifi-

cantly more disruption rom climate

change and ocean acidification looms

large and lends urgency to an already

serious situation

Many ocean ecosystems appear to be

at a critical juncture Like other complex

nonlinear systems ocean ecosystems

are ofen characterized by thresholds

or ldquotipping pointsrdquo where a little more

Remarks from the Eleventh Annual Roger Revelle Commemorative Lecture This lecture was created by the Ocean Studies

Board of the National Academies in honor of Dr Roger Revelle to highlight the important links between ocean sciences

and public policy Jane Lubchenco this yearrsquos speaker was introduced by Senator John Kerry and the lecture was held on

March 2 2010 at Baird Auditorium at the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum of Natural History

ABSRAC Advances in social and natural sciences provide hope or new

approaches to restore the bounty and resilience o ocean ecosystems From new

interdisciplinary approaches and conceptual rameworks to new toolsmdashsuch as

catch shares ecosystem-based management marine spatial planning and marine

reservesmdashto new insights into strategies or adapting to the impacts o climate

change and designing resilient and effective institutions new knowledge is beginning

to inorm policies and practices Tis decade is a pivotal one or the uture o the

ocean Te confluence o local regional and global changes in the oceanmdashdriven

by stressors including nutrient pollution habitat loss overfishing and climate

change and ocean acidificationmdashis rapidly transorming many once bountiul and

resilient ocean ecosystems into depleted or disrupted systems Degraded ecosystems

cannot provide key ecosystem services such as production o seaood protection

o coastlines rom severe storms and tsunamis capture o carbon and provision o

places or recreation Te accelerating pace o change presents daunting challenges

or communities businesses nations and the global community to make a transition

toward more sustainable practices and policies In this paper we highlight new

interdisciplinary approaches tools and insights that offer hope or recovering the

bounty and beauty o the ocean and the ongoing benefits that they provide to people

T i s a r t i c l e h a s b e e n p u b l i s h e d i n O c e a n o g r a p h y V o

l u m e 2 3 N u m b e r 2 a q u a r t e r l y j o u r n a l o f T e O c e a n o g r a p h y

S o c i e t y copy 2 0 1 0 b y T e O c e a n o g r a p h y S o c i e t y A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d P e r m i s s i o n i s g r a n t e d t o c o p y t h i s a r t i c l e f o r u s e i n t e a c h i n g a n d r e s e a r c h R e p u b l i c a t i o n s y s t e m m a t i c r e p r o d u c t i o n

orcol l ecti vered i sti rb uti onof anyporti onof th i sarti cl eb yph otocopymach i nereposti ngoroth ermeansi sperm

i tted onl ywi th th eapproval of TeOceanograph ySoci etySend al l correspond encetoi nf otosorgorTeOceanograph

ySoci etyP OB ox1 9 3 1 R ock vi l l eMD2 0 8 4 9 1 9 3 1 USA



Oceanography Vol23 No2116

change in a stressor can result in a

sudden and precipitous loss o ecological

unctionality Some marine systems have

already crossed a threshold resulting in

changes such as a rapid fishery collapse

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment2005 Biggs et al 2009) Others may well

be approaching tipping points Actions

taken now and in the coming decade

will likely determine the uture health o

most i not all ocean and coastal ecosys-

tems In turn the state o these ecosys-

tems will affect economic and social

well-being Existing scientific knowledge

is not being acquired or incorporated

rapidly enough into public understandingor into management and policy decisions

Tis essay seeks to ocus on some recent

advances in social and natural sciences

that are relevant to a transition toward

more sustainable practices and policies

Some o the advances are beginning to be

implemented but need to be scaled up

others have yet to be employed or trans-

lated into usable tools New knowledge in

high-priority areas is also needed

Te goal o this essay is to catalyze

interest in using scientific knowledge to

maximize the likelihood o achieving

healthy productive and resilient coastal

and ocean ecosystems and enabling a

vibrant suite o sustainable human uses

Jane Lubchenco (janelubchenconoaa

gov) is Under Secretary of Commerce

for Oceans and Atmosphere and

Administrator of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Washington DC USA Laura E Petes

(laurapetesnoaagov) is an American

Association for the Advancement of Science

(AAAS) Science and Technology Policy

Fellow NOAA Climate Program Office

Silver Spring MD USA

Roger Revelle

For almost hal a century Roger Revelle

was a leader in the field o oceanography

Revelle trained as a geologist at PomonaCollege and the University o Caliornia

Berkeley In 1936 he received his PhD

in oceanography rom the Scripps

Institution o Oceanography As a young

naval officer he helped persuade the Navy to create the Office o Naval

Research (ONR) to support basic research in oceanography and was

the first head o ONRrsquos geophysics branch Revelle served or 12 years

as the Director o Scripps (1950ndash1961 1963ndash1964) where he built up a

fleet o research ships and initiated a decade o expeditions to the deep

Pacific that challenged existing geological theoryRevellersquos early work on the carbon cycle suggested that the sea could

not absorb all the carbon dioxide released rom burning ossil uels

He organized the first continual measurement o atmospheric carbon

dioxide an effort led by Charles Keeling resulting in a long-term

record that has been essential to current research on global climate

change With Hans Suess he published the seminal paper demon-

strating the connection between increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide

and burning o ossil uels Revelle kept the issue o increasing carbon

dioxide levels beore the public and spearheaded efforts to investigate

the mechanisms and consequences o climate change

Revelle lef Scripps or critical posts as Science Advisor to the

Department o the Interior (1961ndash1963) and as the first Director o

the Center or Population Studies at Harvard (1964ndash1976) Revelle

applied his knowledge o geophysics ocean resources and population

dynamics to the worldrsquos most vexing problems poverty malnutrition

security and education

In 1957 Revelle became a member o the National Academy

o Sciences to which he devoted many hours o volunteer service

He served as a member o the Ocean Studies Board the Board on

Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and many committees He

also chaired a number o influential Academy studies on subjects

ranging rom the environmental effects o radiation to understanding

sea-level change

Photo credit SIO Archives UCSD





o oceans and coasts In the ollowing

pages we (1) highlight new scientific

understanding in the broad areas o

ecosystem services coupled natural and

social systems and resilience (2) ocus

on a ew promising tools and approachesto address the challenges ahead and

(3) describe areas or urther work

ECOSYSEM SERVICES

LINK HUMAN WELL983085BEING

O HE ENVIRONMEN

Managed and unmanaged ecosystems

provide the lie-support systems or

people and all lie on Earth (Daily et al

2000) Physical chemical and biologicalperturbations o the ocean land and

atmospheremdashespecially over the last ew

decadesmdashhave significantly altered the

unctioning o ecosystems and thus the

delivery o their lie-supporting services

(Vitousek et al 1997 Lubchenco

1998 National Research Council 1999

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

2005 United Nations Environment

Programme 2006 Carpenter et al

2009a) Te Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment (2005) documents the

dependence o human well-being on

healthy ecosystems the global loss o

ecosystem services and the options or

reversing this trend In short human

well-being depends upon services

provided by ecosystems but human

activities have so utterly transormed

ecosystems and altered their unctioningthat 60 o ecosystem services are

currently at risk (Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment 2005 United Nations

Environment Programme 2006)

However in most cases viable options

exist or recovering and sustaining the

delivery o services

Ecosystem services are the benefits

provided by ecosystems they result

rom interactions o plants animals andmicrobes with one another and with the

environment Services vary according

to the type o ecosystem (eg coral ree

mangrove kelp orest open ocean)

Each ecosystem provides multiple

types o services provisioning services

such as seaood regulating services

such as coastal protection or climate

regulation cultural services such as

recreation and supporting services such

as nutrient cycling and primary produc-

tion (able 1 Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment 2005)

For example a mangrove ecosystem

provides wood fiber uel and nursery

habitat or numerous species (provi-

sioning services) it detoxifies and seques-

ters pollutants coming rom upstream

stores carbon traps sediment and thus

protects downstream coral rees andbuffers shores rom tsunamis and storms

(regulating services) it provides beau-

tiul places to fish or snorkel (cultural

services) and it recycles nutrients and

fixes carbon (supporting services)

Ecosystem unctioning and the

delivery o services are affected by

changes in biodiversity habitat ragmen-

tation and conversion climate change

and alterations to biogeochemical cyclesWhen an ecosystem is converted to

another use some services may be lost

and others gained For example when

mangroves are converted to shrimp

ponds airports shopping malls agri-

cultural lands or residential areas ood

production space or commerce or

transportation or housing services are

obtained but the natural services are

lost Similarly when river direction and

flow are modified to obtain navigation

and flood-control services the replenish-

ment o coastal wetlands and barrier

islands is diminished resulting in loss

able 1 Ecosystem services provided by the ocean Provisioning regulating and cultural services provide

direct benefits to humans supporting services are necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 United Nations Environment Programme 2006)

Provisioning

Seafood habitat fuel wood

genetic resources

Regulating

Climate regulation disease and

pest regulation coastal protection

detoxification sediment trapping

Cultural

Aesthetic spiritual educational

recreational

Supporting

Nutrient cycling primary production




o habitat nursery areas carbon storage

and protection rom storms ypically

conversion or other alterations are

implemented without consideration o

the tradeoffs

Te importance o a service is ofennot appreciated until it is lost Post

Hurricane Katrina residents o New

Orleans speak openly about the need

to restore barrier islands and coastal

wetlands so they can unction as ldquospeed

bumpsrdquo or hurricanes Tis assertion

is also borne out elsewhere in the 2004

Indian Ocean tsunami areas o India

with intact mangroves suffered ewer

losses o human lives and property thandid areas where mangroves had been

cleared demonstrating the importance

o the buffering capacity provided by

these plants (Kathiresan and Rajendran

2005) At the global scale the loss o

species rom large marine ecosystems

has led to a reduction in the oceanrsquos

capacity to provide ood improve water

quality and recover rom disturbance

(Worm et al 2006)Although people will readily articulate

some o the benefits they derive rom

the ocean (Figure 1) they are usually

unaware o many others and they

ofen miss the key points that most o

those benefits depend on healthy ocean

ecosystems and that these ecosystems are

already degraded or threatened Clearly

translating general scientific knowledge

about the importance o ecosystemservices into useul guidance and tools

or decision makers is a high-priority

challenge Educating citizens and deci-

sion makers about the importance o

services is necessary but it is not suffi-

cient without tools and inormation to

translate that knowledge into practices

and policies Understanding assessing

and measuring ecosystem services can

be difficult (Carpenter and Folke 2006Carpenter et al 2009a) Moreover

most o the research on ecosystem

services has been conducted in terres-

trial systems In addition ecosystem

services need to be explicitly linked to

socioecological scenarios to demonstrate

how ecosystems benefit humans (allis

and Kareiva 2006)

Te utility o understanding and

communicating tradeoffs was demon-strated in the Catskill Mountains where

changes in watershed management to

improve water quality or New York

City were based on knowledge o the

Figure 1 Ecosystem services as articulated by the general public Photos used with permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration




value provided by ecosystem services In

1996 when drinking water quality ell

below Environmental Protection Agency

standards due to degradation o the

watershed the City o New York aced

the dilemma o whether to invest inCatskill watershed ecosystem restoration

($1ndash15 billion) or a water filtration plant

($6ndash8 billion Chichilnisky and Heal

1998) Te decision to invest in ldquonatural

capitalrdquo (in the orm o ecosystem resto-

ration) saved money and restored both

the ecosystem services o interest (water

purification and filtration) as well as

other services such as carbon storage

and opportunities or recreation noneo which would have been obtained

through building a new filtration plant

(Heal et al 2001)

Tere are several emerging scientific

efforts to enhance our understanding

o the benefits that humans obtain rom

ecosystems and to apply that knowledge

in decision making Te challenge o

determining measuring and communi-

cating the values o ecosystem services

is being addressed through efforts such

as the Natural Capital Project (http

wwwnaturalcapitalprojectorg) a part-

nership among Stanord University

Te Nature Conservancy and the

World Wildlie Fund to develop tools

or acilitating incorporation o natural

capital (ie valuation o ecosystem

services) into decision making Teir

first tool InVES (Integrated Valuation

o Ecosystem Services and radeoffs)

can model and map the delivery

distribution and economic value o

ecosystem services into the uture

InVES allows users to visualize the

impacts o their potential decisions

which enables identification o tradeoffs

among environmental economic and

social benefits Tis tool has already been

applied successully using stakeholder-

defined scenarios to predict changes in

land use and associated tradeoffs in the

Willamette Valley Oregon (Nelson et al

2009) Although InVES was initiallyocused on terrestrial ecosystems it

is now being applied to coastal and

marine ecosystems to provide maps and

projections o ecosystem services under

different management alternatives or

issues such as tradeoffs associated with

large-scale implementation o desalina-

tion plants in Caliornia (Ruckelshaus

and Guerry 2009) Marine InVES

offers a promising new approach or

incorporating scientific inormation

about ecosystem services into decision

making and resource management

Effective valuation o ecosystem

services requires acknowledging that

global social change and global envi-

ronmental change interact with one

another (Young et al 2006) When

acing decisions that affect ecosystem

services tradeoffs between social values

and environmental outcomes can either

be win-win win-lose or lose-lose and

the challenge is to develop solutions

that are winndashwin where both social and

environmental goals are achieved (allis

et al 2008) Increased emphasis should

be placed on incorporating social data

and projections o social distributional

effects into ecosystem services valuation

in order to determine and maximize

win-win outcomes (allis and Polasky

2009) and on obtaining basic inorma-tion about the undamental workings

o coupled human-natural systems

(Carpenter et al 2009a)

One major obstacle to ecosystem

services valuation is that detailed inor-

mation on how people benefit rom

specific services at scales useul or deci-

sion making is currently sparse (urner

and Daily 2008) In addition because

ecosystem services valuation is a rela-

tively new field o science there are ew

examples o ldquolessons learnedrdquo to inorm

new efforts Databases are a useul

tool or providing centralized publicly

accessible sources o inormation Te

Natural Capital Database (httpwww

naturalcapitalprojectorgdatabase

html) currently under development

will be a compilation o strategies and

outcomes rom conservation projects

that have ocused on ecosystem services

Tis inormation clearinghouse will

allow decision makers and managers to

learn lessons rom previous efforts that

they may be able to apply to their own

planning processes

ldquo

HE ACCELERAING PACE OF CHANGE PRESENS

DAUNING CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNIIES

BUSINESSES NAIONS AND HE GLOBAL COMMUNIY

O MAKE A RANSIION OWARD MORE

SUSAINABLE PRACICES AND POLICIES

rdquo




COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Cultures

Institutions

Individuals

SOCIALDOMAIN

ECOLOGICALDOMAIN

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

LocalEcosystems

RegionalSeascapes

Large MarineEcosystems

UNDERSANDING COUPLED

SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS

COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS

Until recently studies o social systems

and o natural systems proceeded inde-

pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently

emerged or studying human and

natural systems as coupled systems (Liu

et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom

2009) Tese efforts seek to understand

the interconnectedness o people

and ecosystems the bases o decision

making and perceptions o risk equity

and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999

Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie

2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches

will enable the changes in practices

and policies needed to use ecosystems

sustainably and to acilitate human well-

being (Figure 3)

Insights rom other scientific areas

are also inorming the understanding

o coupled human and natural systems

specifically the study o complex adap-

tive systems Tese systems are defined

by the act that dynamics o interac-

tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back

to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)

Across numerous types o complex

adaptive systems the same key eatures

appear necessary or a system to be

robust and resilient (ie to have the

capacity to absorb stresses and continue

unctioning Levin and Lubchenco

2008) modular structure redundancy

o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops

(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between

elements and thereore optimum resil-

ience may be obtained at intermediate

levels o these components (Levin 1999)

Evidence suggests that ecosystems

with higher diversity are more resilient

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

2005) Tis has been documented or

areas that are recovering rom species

loss as diversity increases valu-

able ecosystem services are restored

leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary

efforts such as the Resilience Alliance

(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the

Forum on Science and Innovation or

Sustainable Development (httpwww

sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively

exploring the dynamics o socioeco-

logical systems in order to provide a

oundation or sustainability Tese

efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and

requires interdisciplinary tools creative

approaches (eg network analyses

Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations

(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and

Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie

and Kinzig 2009) New approaches

that would enhance the capacity o

management systems to adapt quickly

in response to changing condi-

tions would be beneficial (Carpenter

and Brock 2008)

Incorporating social sciences into

decision making and adaptive manage-

ment is an arena where significant new

advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel

Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom

explicitly recognizes the importance o

interdisciplinary approaches the key role

that institutions play and the multiple

scales o decision making relevant to

managing common-pool resources

(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o

human institutions can have a large

impact on ecosystem resilience and

sustainability thereore participatory

processes that acilitate experimenta-

tion learning and change will benefit

Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie

2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales

understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-

ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is

affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press






Marine Ecosystem-Based

Management (EBM)

EBM simply means taking a place-

based ecosystem approach to manage-

ment with the goal o sustaining the

long-term capacity o the system to

deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg

and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires

synthesizing and applying knowledge

rom social and natural sciences

EBM is different rom traditional

approaches that usually ocus on a single

species sector activity or concern In

contrast EBM considers the cumula-

tive impacts o different sectors and

the connections between people and

ecosystems as well as the connections

among the different components o

the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although

many EBM concepts have been codi-

fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)

they are actively employed in multiple

ecosystems around the world Recent

advances in understanding and prac-

ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod

and Leslie (2009a)

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)

MSP also called coastal and marine

spatial planning is an EBM tool or

minimizing conflicts among users

and reducing impacts on ecosystem

unctioning Increasing demands on

ocean space or diverse uses including

tourism recreation fishing shipping

national security oil and gas exploration

and wave and wind energy have led to

more and more conflicts among users

as well as additional impacts on already

stressed ocean ecosystems (United

Nations Environment Programme 2006

Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that

enables integrated orward-looking

decision making through an ecosystem-

based spatially explicit approach (Ehler

and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has

been practiced on land or centuries as

humans have determined how to allocate

specific areas or multiple uses including

orestry conservation development

and agriculture

Te concept o zoning in the ocean

is a relatively new idea Te first

comprehensive MSP was developed

in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree

Marine Park in Australia Specific areas

are zoned or different uses including

fishing and tourism and other areas are

designated as ully protected helping to

minimize user conflicts and ecosystem

impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o

the interdependency o human and

natural systems the MSP process is most

successul when it involves broad partici-

pation by stakeholder groups scientists

and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere

2008) In addition to consideration o

human uses it is important or planners

to understand the biological communi-

ties and the key processes that maintain

them in order to create plans that maxi-

mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder

and Norse 2008)

Efforts are currently underway to

develop marine spatial plans or the

United States On December 14 2009

President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean

Policy ask Force released an interim

ramework or effective coastal and

able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems

Historical Approach New Approach

Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives

Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus

Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach

Single-species management Ecosystem-based management

Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services

Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives

Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome

Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control

Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary

Static Adaptive




EBM

GoalSustainable ecosystem

services andresilient ecosystems

TransportationManagement

Sector GoalsEfcient transport

accessible ports with links to land transport minimize

impacts on protectedspecies and habitat

EnergyManagement

Sector GoalsEfcient production

accessible to marketsminimize conicts

minimize habitat impacts

ScientifcAdvisory Body

Dynamicecosystem-wide

integrated assessment

FisheryManagement

Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target

species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts

maintain coastalcommunities

marine spatial planning wo weeks later

the Commonwealth o Massachusetts

became the first US state to release a

comprehensive ocean management plan

or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)

Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more

holistic management o ocean resources

and ecosystems

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

and Reserves

MPAs provide a complementary tool

or protecting habitat biodiversity and

ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern

et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-

vation benefit Tis tool provides an

ecosystem- and place-based approach to

management as opposed to a species-

based approach MPAs may be used

alone or as part o an MSP ramework

Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)

marine reserves are a type o MPA that

are completely protected rom all extrac-

tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco

et al 2003) Marine reserves currently

constitute lt 1 o the global ocean

(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine

reserves include habitat protection

biodiversity conservation enhancement

o ecosystem services recovery o over-

exploited stocks export o individuals

outside the reserve insurance against

environmental uncertainty and sites

or scientific research education and

recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific

analyses o the hundreds o no-take

marine reserves around the world

provide compelling evidence that they

do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-

tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density

diversity biomass and size o organisms

are higher inside reserves as opposed

to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003

Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies

o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al

in press) On average these benefits are

rapid (ofen occurring within one to

three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all

species respond rapidly and the rates at

which populations change depend on lie

histories and the availability o colonists

(Babcock et al in press) as well as social

actors (Pollnac et al in press)

Marine reserves provide a unique

mechanism or protecting large-bodied

individuals o fish and invertebrates

Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig

old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have

much greater reproductive potential than

do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are

understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection

o BOFFs may also help to counter the

negative evolutionary impacts o fishing

that result in reproduction at smaller

sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some

cases the distortion o size structure and

social structure or fish that are sequen-

tial hermaphrodites

Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-

fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press




Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39

P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M

e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166

or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal

Oceans 2007) For example coastal

areas surrounding the Merritt Island

Florida reserve exhibited a rapid

increase in the number o world-record-

sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area

was established (Roberts et al 2001)

Reproduction within reserves

produces young that may be transported

by ocean currents outside the reserve

Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult

to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles

or adults but both processes transport

benefits rom inside a reserve to the

surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves

separated by non-reserve waters but

connected by the movement o young

juveniles or adults can be designed to

maximize transport o benefits to the

outside (McCook et al in press Pelc

et al in press) Because o spillover

export and other benefits provided by

reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs

when some areas o a region are tempo-

rarily or permanently closed (Costello

and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-

mentation o marine reserve networks

are acilitated by access to biological and

socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-

Colvert et al in press Smith et al in

press) Te availability o high-quality

spatial inormation on the location

o fish populations allows or spatial

optimization in the implementation o

marine reserve networks that lead to

increased profit margins or surrounding

fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines

et al in press b) For all o these reasons

no-take marine reserves and MPAs are

increasingly seen as useul tools in a

larger strategy to protect and restore

coastal and ocean ecosystems

Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-

sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for

Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)

Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A

23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long

Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)

Productivity within marine reserves

also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-

tion o animals rom inside the reserve

to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing

commercial and recreational fisheries

surrounding the protected area or

contributing to recovery o depleted fish-

eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership




With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T

Q s I m p l e m e n t e d

0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares

Catch shares provide an alternative

to traditional fishery management by

incorporating new understanding rom

social and economic sciences Instead

o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo

to outcompete others rights-based

fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative

solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu

o industry-wide quotas fishermen are

allocated individual quotas reerred

to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-

able catch and the goal is to provide

fishermen and communities with a

secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)

Catch shares thus align economic and

conservation incentives Tey also hold

fishermen accountable or adhering

to the rules

Te concept o catch shares

pioneered in Australia New Zealand

and Iceland has now been implemented

or hundreds o fisheries throughout

the world Effectiveness o catch shares

was documented in a global analysis o

over 11000 fisheries Results indicated

that implementation o catch shares can

halt and even reverse trends toward

widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7

Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker

2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch

shares offer a promising tool or sustain-

able fisheries management

o date 12 fisheries in the United

States have adopted this management

approach Te results have been impres-

sive sustainable fisheries improved

economic perormance o the fishery

decreased environmental impact and

increased saety at sea For example in

Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish

fisheries the length o the fishing season

was extended rom less than a week to

eight months per year bycatch dropped

by 80 and saety improved sharply

(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and

Environmental Deense Fund 2007)

In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended

or the first time in decades fishermen

are receiving higher dockside prices

or their catch and reducing costs as

they are able to better plan their trips

and discards have decreased by 70



Catch shares are not necessarily suitable

or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many

Future Possible ools

Other tools seem ripe or development

but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-

trading scheme to decrease the flow o

excess nutrients rom agricultural and

livestock areas into coastal waters Dead

zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal

oceans have spread exponentially since

the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff

due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur

over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz

and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in

the Mississippi River watershed which

drains 41 o the continental United

States leads to a severe seasonal dead

zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends

across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)

One proposed approach or combating

excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or

nitrogen where a limit would be set on

nitrogen input or each region (Socolow

1999) with regions able to trade quotas

A similar approach was successully used

by the Environmental Protection Agency

Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with

(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold

of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-

ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries

increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the

American Association for the Advancement of Science




under the Acid Rain Program to cap

emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the

occurrence o acid rain Tis program

was so effective that sulur dioxide

reductions were achieved at significantly

lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated

Another potentially useul tool would

involve better analytical methods or

detecting an approaching ecological

threshold or tipping point in time to

avert potential disaster (eg a fishery

collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide

an example o such an early-warning

indicator Te lack o relevant long-term

data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore

efforts to urther develop them will need

to occur in parallel with (and should

inorm the development o) improved

monitoring efforts In addition the

utility o such indicators will rest upon

the adaptive capacity o management to

avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the

management regime to respond rapidly

and the ability to control the appropriate

drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock

2008 Biggs et al 2009)

None o the above tools offers a

panacea but each provides useul

approaches that build on existing

understanding rom both natural

and social sciences Maintaining the

suite o ecosystem services requires

protecting the unctioning o ecosys-

tems Integrated ecosystem assessments

that elucidate how the different social

and natural components interact provide

a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive

management approaches are essential

New tools to acilitate understanding

o and decisions about tradeoffs will

be key In short effective management

o coastal and marine ecosystems will

require orward-thinking holistic and

ecosystem-based approaches that involve

users managers and scientific experts

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Continuing to educate and engage

citizens provide inormation to guide

decision making and develop and

implement new tools and approaches

based on the more holistic under-

standing described above will undoubt-

edly bring significant benefits For those

approaches to be maximally effective

additional inormation about ecosystem

and human patterns and processes

is needed such as basic patterns o

biodiversity understanding the scales

over which key ecosystem processes

operate socioeconomic inormation at

relevant scales methods or identiying

thresholds and approaches or designing

resilient institutions and manage-

ment structures Tis will also require

significant advances in ecosystem-

based science ecosystem services and

resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural

system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always

available at the relevant spatial scale or

management For example the majority

o climate change scenarios have been

developed or the global scale but most

o the impacts will be elt at local to

regional scales Tis mismatch o scales

makes it difficult or managers to incor-

porate climate inormation into their

planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale

resources (eg large marine ecosystems)

requires collaboration among interna-

tional national regional state and local

levels which creates challenges (Ostrom

et al 1999) Te need to address

problems at the local to regional scale

associated with shared global resources

is increasing Globalization is occur-

ring throughout many o our coupled

human-natural systems leading to

increased connectedness with both posi-

tive and negative results (Young et al

2006) A diversity o scales is necessary

or effective resilient management by

building on local and regional institu-

tions to ocus on global problems the

likelihood o success can be increased

(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on

understanding impacts o climate change

on regions (US Global Change Research

Program 2009) is leading to increased

attention towards the ability o climate

models to resolve regional scales

Both climate change and ocean acidi-

fication are likely to transorm coastal

and ocean species ecosystems and

ecosystem services Priority should be

ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING

HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND

HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES

rdquo




given to understanding the likely impacts

o climate change and ocean acidifica-

tion as well as ways to ameliorate those

impacts Given the rapid pace at which

ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by

doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict

the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)

Even though todayrsquos challenges are

already substantial climate change and

ocean acidification will interact with

and exacerbate the other drivers o

change Hence to be relevant and useul

management and policy must ocus on

tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural

systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-

sible Likely keys to success include the

ollowing approaches

bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such

as extinctions)

bull Managing or resilience

bull Managing with the expectation

o surprises

bull Creating flexible institutions with

capacity to adapt rapidly

bull Preserving as much biodiversity

(genetic species and habitat)

as possible

bull Developing rules o thumb or

managers in lieu o precise targets

bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors

over which there is more immediate

control

bull Sharing inormation and lessons via

learning networks

bull Investing effort in scientific research

to provide knowledge or the

above strategies

bull Supporting monitoring and

analysis to guide management and

policy decisions

In short these strategies all into two

categories (1) making better use o

existing inormation and (2) acquiring

new knowledge that would enhance

more sustainable practices and poli-

cies Incorporating climate change

and ocean acidification adaptation

strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way

to integrate a number o the above-

mentioned approaches

CONCLUDING REMARK S

Our uture depends upon maintaining

healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems

and healthy human communities Both

are in flux and each is coupled to the

other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide

a ocus or understanding policy and

management Awareness that natural

systems can undergo rapid change once

a tipping point is reached lends urgency

to the need or embracing novel tools

and approaches scaling up their use

and creating new knowledge inorma-

tion and tools

Global threats to our coastal

and marine ecosystems are rapidly

increasing We are currently operating

in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which

human activities have driven global

environmental change to a point that

has never beore been observed (Steffen

et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining

our natural resources are being depleted

and habitats are being destroyed Along

with these changes come the losses o

valuable ecosystem services on which

humans depend

In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-

tems social systems can also undergo

rapid change once a tipping point is

reached Knowledge that rapid soci-

etal shifs occur can provide hope

that successes in some places can be

quickly adopted and implemented Te

plethora o new advances and effective

tools successes at the local level and

engagement o citizens businesses and

scientists around the world provide

impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in

transitioning to more sustainable prac-

tices and policies

Priority actions include educating

citizens and policymakers about the

benefits o new approaches strength-

ening interdisciplinary approaches to

problem solving reducing the stres-

sors over which we have direct control

(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o

greenhouse gases to slow down the rates


tion protecting as much biodiversity as

possible and managing or ecosystem

resilience Holistic strategies or

engaging stakeholders and or preserving

or restoring ecosystem unctioning

and resilience are critical to success

Momentum is building inormed by

scientific advances and public involve-

ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo

ACKNOWLEDGEMENS

We would like to thank the National

Academies Ocean Studies Board

particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch

Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or

organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture

the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o

Natural History or hosting the event

and Senator John Kerry or providing

a dynamic introduction to the lecture

Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture

sponsors or their generous support

Logistical support rom Frank Parker

and figure design assistance rom Mike

Walker are also greatly appreciated




REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998

Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient

or marine conservation Ecological Applications

8(1)S79ndashS92

Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala

NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty

R McClanahan and GR Russ In press

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal

differential rates o change in direct and indirect

effects Proceedings of the National Academy of

Sciences of the United States of America

Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and

J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the

evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish

Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901

Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008

Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building

Resilience for Complexity and Change

Cambridge University Press Cambridge

UK 416 pp

Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009

urning back rom the brink Detecting and

impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

of the United States of America 106826ndash831

Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive

capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40

Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology

or transormation rends in Ecology and

Evolution 21(6)309ndash315

Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard

D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz

AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah

HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or

managing ecosystem services Beyond the

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings

of the National Academy of Sciences of the

United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and

F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the

noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13

Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998

Economic returns rom the biosphere

Nature 391629ndash630

Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal

harvesting o stochastic spatial resources

Journal of Environmental Economics and

Management 561ndash18

Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008

Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse

Science 3211678ndash1681

Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo

F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network

design Proceedings of the National Academy of


Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential

ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based

management and marine spatial planning

Marine Policy 32772ndash778

Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow

P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson

B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000

Te value o nature and the nature o value


Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000

Economic pathways to ecological sustainability

Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345

Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems


Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003

Te struggle to govern the commons


Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial

planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use

management Marine Policy 32762ndash771

Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a

Sea Change Report of the First International

Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC

Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3

UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe

uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc

70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)

Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert

C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te

evolving science o marine reserves New

developments and emerging research rontiers

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

of the United States of America

Gaines SD C White MH Carr and

SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine

reserve networks or both conservation and

fisheries management Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences of the United

States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute

E Neeley and SD Gaines In press

Communicating marine reserve science to

diverse audiences Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States

of America

Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves

Do reserves work and does reserve size matter

Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137

Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine

reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology

Letters 5361ndash366

Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In

press Placing marine protected areas onto

the ecosystem-based management seascape



Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and

MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-

raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands

marine reserve network Proceedings of the


States of America

Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman

C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001

Protecting natural capital through ecosystem

service districts Stanford Environmental Law

Journal 20333ndash364

Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-

eries Nature 4551044ndash1045

Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma

2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal

Society B 36047ndash57

Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies

Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister

P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network

perspective o the study o resilience in social-

ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15

Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal

mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine

Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606

Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar

B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke

M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003

Coping with uncertainty A call or a new

science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience

science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based

Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and

HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC

Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert

J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines

S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological

effects within no-take marine reserves

A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress

Series 38433ndash46

Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the

biosphere as complex adaptive systems

Ecosystems 1431ndash436

Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity

and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp

Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience

robustness and marine ecosystem-based

management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32

Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti

C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman

Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007

Complexity o coupled human and natural

systems Science 3171513ndash1516

Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins

1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species

(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern

Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report

NMFS 87

Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the

environment A new social contract or science


Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and

S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the

ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves


McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat

RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel

P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and

others In press Adaptive management o

the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant



demonstration o the benefits o networks o

marine reserves Proceedings of the National


of America

McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-

Based Management for the Oceans Island Press

Washington DC 392 pp

McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why

ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans

KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press

Washington DC

McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and

AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus

Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based

Management Signed by 221 academic scientists

and policy experts with relevant expertise and

published by the Communication Partnership

or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online

at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files

EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed

March 28 2010)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC

National Research Council 1999 Our Common

Journey National Academy Press Washington

DC 384 pp

National Research Council 2008 Increasing

Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts

A Priority for the 21st Century National

Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp

Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky

H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan

GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and

others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem

services biodiversity conservation

commodity production and tradeoffs at

landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11

Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or

analyzing sustainability o social-ecological


Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard

and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the

commons Local lessons global challenges


Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal

Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves

2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww

piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed

February 15 2010)

Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris

In press Detecting larval export rom marine

reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of


Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living

Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew

Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available

online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_

detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)

Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton

M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and

R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as

linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of

the National Academy of Sciences of the United

States of America

Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-

ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-

ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822

Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia

2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o

Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142

Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental

Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential

for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available

online at httpredstonestrategycom

documents2007-03-2620Assessing20

the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20

US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)

Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell

JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects

o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries


Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005

Implementing ecosystem-based approaches

to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress

Series 300270ndash274

Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do

managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based



Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing

marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29

Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark

M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System

Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st

Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge

MA 468 pp

Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and

JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o

opportunity costs Proceedings of the National


of America

Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and

the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-

ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the


States of America 966001ndash6008

Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger

P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson

F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II

and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and

the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure

Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp

allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping

global environmental decisions using socio-

ecological models rends in Ecology and


allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and

valuing ecosystem services as an approach or

conservation and natural-resource manage-

ment Annals of the New York Academy of


allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang

2008 An ecosystem services ramework to

support both practical conservation and

economic development Proceedings of the


States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464

urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem

services ramework and natural capital

conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35

United Nations Environment Programme

2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and

Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based

on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment United Nations Environment

Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp

US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean

Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission

on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available

online at httpoceancommissiongov

documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_

reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)

US Global Change Research Program 2009

Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York

NY Available online at httpdownloads

globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-

impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)

Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and

JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o

Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499

Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking

Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing

World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp

Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly

2008 Assessing progress towards global marine

protection targets Shortalls in inormation and

action Oryx 42340ndash351

Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson

HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others

2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean

ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790

Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin

MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw

2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological

systems An agenda or scientific research

Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316




change in a stressor can result in a

sudden and precipitous loss o ecological

unctionality Some marine systems have

already crossed a threshold resulting in

changes such as a rapid fishery collapse

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment2005 Biggs et al 2009) Others may well

be approaching tipping points Actions

taken now and in the coming decade

will likely determine the uture health o

most i not all ocean and coastal ecosys-

tems In turn the state o these ecosys-

tems will affect economic and social

well-being Existing scientific knowledge

is not being acquired or incorporated

rapidly enough into public understandingor into management and policy decisions

Tis essay seeks to ocus on some recent

advances in social and natural sciences

that are relevant to a transition toward

more sustainable practices and policies

Some o the advances are beginning to be

implemented but need to be scaled up

others have yet to be employed or trans-

lated into usable tools New knowledge in

high-priority areas is also needed

Te goal o this essay is to catalyze

interest in using scientific knowledge to

maximize the likelihood o achieving

healthy productive and resilient coastal

and ocean ecosystems and enabling a

vibrant suite o sustainable human uses

Jane Lubchenco (janelubchenconoaa

gov) is Under Secretary of Commerce

for Oceans and Atmosphere and

Administrator of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Washington DC USA Laura E Petes

(laurapetesnoaagov) is an American

Association for the Advancement of Science

(AAAS) Science and Technology Policy

Fellow NOAA Climate Program Office

Silver Spring MD USA

Roger Revelle

For almost hal a century Roger Revelle

was a leader in the field o oceanography

Revelle trained as a geologist at PomonaCollege and the University o Caliornia

Berkeley In 1936 he received his PhD

in oceanography rom the Scripps

Institution o Oceanography As a young

naval officer he helped persuade the Navy to create the Office o Naval

Research (ONR) to support basic research in oceanography and was

the first head o ONRrsquos geophysics branch Revelle served or 12 years

as the Director o Scripps (1950ndash1961 1963ndash1964) where he built up a

fleet o research ships and initiated a decade o expeditions to the deep

Pacific that challenged existing geological theoryRevellersquos early work on the carbon cycle suggested that the sea could

not absorb all the carbon dioxide released rom burning ossil uels

He organized the first continual measurement o atmospheric carbon

dioxide an effort led by Charles Keeling resulting in a long-term

record that has been essential to current research on global climate

change With Hans Suess he published the seminal paper demon-

strating the connection between increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide

and burning o ossil uels Revelle kept the issue o increasing carbon

dioxide levels beore the public and spearheaded efforts to investigate

the mechanisms and consequences o climate change

Revelle lef Scripps or critical posts as Science Advisor to the

Department o the Interior (1961ndash1963) and as the first Director o

the Center or Population Studies at Harvard (1964ndash1976) Revelle

applied his knowledge o geophysics ocean resources and population

dynamics to the worldrsquos most vexing problems poverty malnutrition

security and education

In 1957 Revelle became a member o the National Academy

o Sciences to which he devoted many hours o volunteer service

He served as a member o the Ocean Studies Board the Board on

Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and many committees He

also chaired a number o influential Academy studies on subjects

ranging rom the environmental effects o radiation to understanding

sea-level change

Photo credit SIO Archives UCSD












ECOSYSEM SERVICES


O HE ENVIRONMEN





























delivery o services















Assessment 2005)

































Provisioning


genetic resources

Regulating




Cultural


recreational

Supporting









the tradeoffs












































and Kareiva 2006)


























(Heal et al 2001)























































































planning processes

ldquo






rdquo





Cultures

Institutions

Individuals

SOCIALDOMAIN

ECOLOGICALDOMAIN

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

LocalEcosystems

RegionalSeascapes





















being (Figure 3)
















































and Brock 2008)




























Management (EBM)
























and Leslie (2009a)
























and agriculture






















and Norse 2008)


















Static Adaptive




EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America












































































ECOSYSEM SERVICES


O HE ENVIRONMEN





























delivery o services















Assessment 2005)

































Provisioning


genetic resources

Regulating




Cultural


recreational

Supporting









the tradeoffs












































and Kareiva 2006)


























(Heal et al 2001)























































































planning processes

ldquo






rdquo





Cultures

Institutions

Individuals

SOCIALDOMAIN

ECOLOGICALDOMAIN

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

LocalEcosystems

RegionalSeascapes





















being (Figure 3)
















































and Brock 2008)




























Management (EBM)
























and Leslie (2009a)
























and agriculture






















and Norse 2008)


















Static Adaptive




EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America









































































the tradeoffs












































and Kareiva 2006)


























(Heal et al 2001)























































































planning processes

ldquo






rdquo





Cultures

Institutions

Individuals

SOCIALDOMAIN

ECOLOGICALDOMAIN

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

LocalEcosystems

RegionalSeascapes





















being (Figure 3)
















































and Brock 2008)




























Management (EBM)
























and Leslie (2009a)
























and agriculture






















and Norse 2008)


















Static Adaptive




EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America





















































































(Heal et al 2001)























































































planning processes

ldquo






rdquo





Cultures

Institutions

Individuals

SOCIALDOMAIN

ECOLOGICALDOMAIN

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

LocalEcosystems

RegionalSeascapes





















being (Figure 3)
















































and Brock 2008)




























Management (EBM)
























and Leslie (2009a)
























and agriculture






















and Norse 2008)


















Static Adaptive




EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America






































































Cultures

Institutions

Individuals

SOCIALDOMAIN

ECOLOGICALDOMAIN

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES

LocalEcosystems

RegionalSeascapes





















being (Figure 3)
















































and Brock 2008)




























Management (EBM)
























and Leslie (2009a)
























and agriculture






















and Norse 2008)


















Static Adaptive




EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America








































































Management (EBM)
























and Leslie (2009a)
























and agriculture






















and Norse 2008)


















Static Adaptive




EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America





































































EBM







EnergyManagement







FisheryManagement











and ecosystems


and Reserves

























































tial hermaphrodites






Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America





































































Average

BiomassN = 55

DensityN = 118

SizeN = 51

DiversityN = 39


e a s u r e s

3000

2000

1000

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

446

2128

166




























































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America





































































With ITQ

Without ITQ

Number of

ITQ Fisheries

Year

C

o l l a p s e d

I T


0

10

20

30

100

75

50

25

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Catch Shares


















to the rules





















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America


















































































































CHALLENGES AHEAD






























































rdquo




















ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America





















































































ollowing approaches


as extinctions)



o surprises





as possible





control


learning networks



above strategies



policy decisions











CONCLUDING REMARK S













tion and tools













humans depend














tices and policies



















ACKNOWLEDGEMENS





















8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America








































































8(1)S79ndashS92
















UK 416 pp















































































of America

















States of America
































Series 38433ndash46


















NMFS 87


















of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America







































































of America







Washington DC










March 28 2010)





DC 384 pp























February 15 2010)















States of America
































MA 468 pp





of America


































































the interconnected biosphere- science at the ocean’s tipping points

Documents