the integration of common crime and organized crime in latin america by marcelo bergman cide mexico
TRANSCRIPT
Hypothesis
The rise in crime has been caused by the increasing role of criminal organizations and the development of new markets for stolen goods.
Two Causes
The growth of organized crime is explained mainly by two variables:
a)The rapid growth of consumption of illegal goods
b) The fragmentation of states’
deterrence capacities
Homicides and Violent CrimeAll Homicide Rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Years
No
. per
100
,000
Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Río de Janeiro (city)
Chile
Colombia
Colombia #2
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Mexico #2 (Zepeda, libro)
Nicaragua
Perú
Uruguay
Venezuela
Victimization rates in Latin AmericaVictimization Rate, 1995 & 2005*
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
Countries
% r
ep
ort
ing
th
ey o
r fa
mil
y V
icti
miz
ed
1995
2005
(cont.) Victimization in Mexico
Personal Theft:Selected Items
0
20
40
60
80
purse celular computer clothing bicycle money other
2005
2008
(cases per 1,000)
Crime rates in ArgentinaCrime Rates in Argentina (per 100,000)
200
700
1200
1700
2200
propert crime arg. personal crime arg.
(cont.) Crime Rates in Mexico
Presuntos Delincuentes por 100,000 (Accused Criminals Per 100,000), Fuero Común y Federal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001-2005
Periodo
Homicidio
Robo
Organized Crime: Defined
• “The predominant forms of organized crimes exist to provide goods and services that are either illegal, regulated, or in short supply. It is the presence of one or more of these limiting conditions and a desire by a large enough segment of society for the particular goods and services that make their provision a profitable business” (Finckenauer 2008 p 67)
• “[…] loosely affiliated networks of criminals who coalesce around certain criminal opportunities”
(cont.) Organized Crime: Defined
society’s Demand for goods
+
restricted Supply for goods
(through legal means)
=
Organized Crime
becomes the illegal supplier
Common Crime and Organized Crime
• Development of new markets for stolen goods
• Easy recruitment of “cheap labor”
• Multiple models and fluid connections
• Horizontal integration
Car Theft: An Example
•The structure and organization.
•Car theft as organized crime.
•Close to 1,000,000 cars are stolen every year in the region.
•A $3-5 billion dollar market.
Organized Crime in Latin America(supply side)
• structurally-differentiated by functions and trades.
• loosely connected and multiple players.
• competition and fragmentation.
• participation by state actors.
Why Organized Crime Exploded? (Economy)
• The Drug Trafficking Problem
• The proliferation of Piracy and counterfeiting (cheap technologies)
• The fragmentation of markets and the expansion and the reduction of trade barriers
• Low labor cost
Why Organized Crime Exploded? (Institutional)
• Who has the upper hand? Police or crime ring leaders?
• Critical mass and tipping point
• The “capture” of law enforcement agencies
Police Reform in Mexican States
The Effect of Police Reform on Crime Variation (average)
Reform Robo Patrimonial
None 40.7% 36.2%
Low 22.3% 34.4%
Moderate 39.1% 19.5%
Determinants of rising crime
• Police Reform: No Evidence.• Number of Police in the street: No evidence.
– (R: -.39* with DF and R: -.15 without DF)
• Unemployment: No evidence. – (R: -08 )
• Unemployment does correlate with patrimonial (vandalism) but in an unexpected direction (negatively).– (R: -37)
Initial Supporting Findings (Mexico)
• In the variation in the crime rate does correlate moderately with the crime rate at the onset.
• Crime has risen irrespective of Police Reform.
• The speed of rising criminality is faster where crime rates are higher
The role of Police Departments
• Crime increased more moderately where centralized police managed to still have a grip on its organization (Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Nicaragua)
• Crime has increased sharply where descentralization allowed for the capturing of some states´police departments (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina
• Outliers: Venezuela
Concluding Remarks
a) Crime has been increasing throughout the region.
b) The lion’s share of this increase has been property crime.
c) Violence became an additional resource used by criminal organizations.
d) Property crime was driven by a strong demand for stolen goods.