the importance and future of reliability in a complex and turbulent environment ete/grasmech’09...
TRANSCRIPT
The importance and future of Reliability
in a complex and turbulent environment
ETE/GRASMECH’09 conferenceBSMEE - Bruxelles
A strategic vision
Harry Roossien
Contents
• Importance of reliability– Complex: Forces on organisation and reliability– Turbulent: Technical and economic perspectives
• Testphylosophies in perspective– Simulation, Robustness, Virtual– Acceleration en aggrevation
• Future of Reliability– Reliability Maturity Model
(Sr) Reliability Eng. Group leader Section Manager T&V Quality Officer System Eng. SE Verification Technology Pre-Development
Member Board Chairman
Reliability WG; HALT WG; WG Mech. test
Trainer
SonyEricsson
Platform for Environmental Testing
> 2002 (<1990 Consultancy, 1990-2002 Ericsson)
> 1995
< 1995, > 2006
From Risk to Reliability Training
Harry Roossien
TAB’s TENEEST TC-104
www.sonyericsson.com
www.plot.nl
ik.verniel.nl
Quality and Reliability – terms and definitions
• Quality– much definitions/approaches– broad– perception
• Reliability– explicit study (models & literature)– quality for a given period of time– quantification (MTTF etc.)– margin
1. Transcedent2. Product oriented3. User oriented4. Production oriented5. Value oriented
1. Arrhenius, Hallberg & Peck2. Weibull, distributions 3. FMECA4. Failure rate/availability5. Standards (MIL, IEC etc.)
Q is the ability of the product to meet required performance under stated conditions … (R) for a specific period of time and to determine the margin to required performance
Test programmes
Basic Q/R program
Field complaint
Basic Q/R program
Extra test
Field return
Basic Q/R program
Extra test
Basic Q/R program
Extra test
Basic Q/R program
Extra test
Extra test
Field INFO
Extra test
Extra test
Extra test
Extra test
• Fear - Risk averse • Many reasons for adding – even big programmes always to small• Need for speed and quality and cost reductions=> Back to basics
recall
Why testing
• Customer satisfaction
• Simulation real world use
• Determine weak spots
• Quality/Reliability assurance
• Costs
• Return rate
• Robustness
Check induced stress
SAFETY
SIMULATION
APPROVALS
KEEP WORK
Knowing product
Improve-ments
Process op-
timisation
Prevent surprises
INSECURE
PART OF DESIGN
It’s all about: - conformance- insight
Turbulence: “Porter’s forces on your organisation”
New Entrants
IndustryCompetition
SustituteProducts
Suppliers Customers
Threat of new entrants
Threat of substitue products
Bargaining power of buyers
Bargaining power of suppliers
“New” competition from South-East Asia and former Eastern block
Not only competition=complex of forces=
“Due to economical crisis more critical consumers”
Costs of Change
1 – 10 – 100 - 1000 rule
Costs/change
Possibilities/costs
Culture/attitudeContingency thinking
Quality costs (ref. Juran)
Quality level
Cost level
Inspection and Prevention Costs
100%
Fail costs
Total QualityCosts
Traditional
AB
Quality is a feature and addressed specifically.
Knowledge
Quality costs (ref. Schneidermann)
Quality level
Cost level
Inspection and Prevention Costs
100%
Fail costs
Total QualityCostsZero defects
Learning organisation
A B
Quality is working practice and integrated
throughout full company.
Understanding
Integral approach required to minimize costs.Part of daily practices, everyone, everywhere!
Organisational importance of Reliability1. Savings on Costs and Time
• Life Time Costs, efficiency and projectdelays
2. Brandname and consumer trust (loyalty)• first choice, second buy
3. Availability• reliability, repair, maintenance• contractual obligation
4. Differentiating (competitive advantage)• quality level and perception• value for money quantification and prove
5. Insight and understanding• Physics of Failure, Root Cause Analysis, Modelling prediction and control
Reliability is efficiency and competitive advantage- insight and understanding leading to pro-active approaches
- answer to forces and competitions (South-East Asia and former Eastern block)
- response to complex and turbulent environments
Summarized: importance of Reliability
Quality is free (Juran)
Reliability is the proof (…)
I’m a
Reliability Engineer
If you see me
running
try to catch up !
• Technical and economic
• Different from and additional to Quality
• Conformance or insight
• Emerging Competitive advantage
• Effective and efficient testing• faster• cheaper • better
2. Testphilosophies in perspective
• time & margin
Q is the ability of the product to meet required performance under stated conditions … (R) for a specific period of time and to determine the margin to required performance
Environmental Stress and Test Philosophies
UseUse
Env
iron
men
tal S
tres
s
Timedy mth yrswk
low
med.
high
veryhigh
Simulation testingSimulation testing
Robustness testingRobustness testing
Reliable simulationHigh temperatureLow temperatureDamp heat steady stateDamp heat cyclicThermal shocksSine vibrationRandom vibrationBump & shockLife tests (bending, switching etc.)Click ratioDust testPerspiration testDrop test etc.
Margins/time reductionStress crackingReliability stress screenDamage boundary85/85 testHT drop/LT dropStep stress free fallHigh temp. vibration
Time reduction6 axes omnidirectional vibr.Extreme thermal cyclingPower cyclingDamage boundaryCombined testing
SIM
ROSEMEOST
HALT
Aggrevated
Accelerated
time
Reliability Roadmap (II)
SingleSimulation
SimulationPrograms
CombinedTesting
SingleRobustness
Robustness Programs
HALT
HASS
production testing
Simulation Robustness Acceleration
?
Virtual??
ROSE
ESS
Q$
tR
p
PoF
Base: PLOT members / CEEES / supplier base
HASS, HAST
Testfilosophy
Mmtfocus
MEOST
“Demolition curve”
HASA
?
• Failure HotelTest only on the known failure mechanisms. Reliability database
• Life Cycle AnalysisBase the test(criteria) on the real world conditions the product will face. Eventually with a safety margin.
• Fix allNo base quality levels, but intention to fix all failures.Trade off and impact analysis per observed failure.
• Virtual testing / Zero verification Based on simulation and modelling confidence on end quality
• Quality Supply Chain and appropriate Quality LevelsBase the end result on the sum of all part verifications. Determine the quality erosion and related that to end user quality expectations in time.
• Tailored testingDefine the tests based on (personal) experiences, feelings and analysis and decide which approach is most effective. This based on end user quality expectations.
Developments• p/f levels• single test system thinking• simulation robustness• test customer• standards tailored
• UNDERSTANDING– more info
– margins
• Note: OK for compliance testing
Not for the future
Margins and ROSE CONCEPT
TESTS
REQ: BASE (QUALITY LEVEL)
LEV
ELS
PASS
FAIL
MO
NIT
OR
ING
RELIABILITY GROWTH
• Robustness Specification for Environmental Testing• Method to determine and quantify product robustness
REVISION
What is ROSEThe levels correspond to accumulation of failures which disclose the factthat the technological limit is reached (= state of the art = excellence)
Summary ROSE• more insight in product quality and robustness (understanding)• quantification of product quality & comparisons (progress/competitors)• time reduction: faster testing and “better” results• cost reduction: prevent overkill• mmt summary: one page overview
• Acknowledged by CEEES for technology• Pre-decessor of HALT
No HALT/HASS• ROSE is in between
• standard equipment• margins
• HALT/HASS is other tests• 6 axis omnidirectional vibration• forced temperature changes• power cycling• incl. combined stresses
Hippix ES series W604
EXAMPLEValues are edited for reference and education
Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset
ROSE GRAPH W04
Hippix TP series W609
EXAMPLEValues are edited for reference and education
Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset
ROSE GRAPH W09
Hippix RTL series W628
EXAMPLEValues are edited for reference and education
Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset
ROSE GRAPH W28
Robustness Growth
130%
88%
114%
136%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
Target ES W604 TP W609 PP W628 TTC Wxx
HIPPIX ROBUSTNESS PROGRESSReliability Level per Revision (RLR)
HALT testing
• Highly Accelerated Life Testing (design – engineering)• Highly Accelerated Stress Screen (production)
• 6 axis omnidirectional vibration• combined with rapid temperature change• combined with on/off cycling
Comparison test philosophies
Simulation testing ROSE/MEOST testing HALT testing
– longer testing,– pass/fail,– proven, – standards,– non-destructive– RCA when necessary– existing tests– Sinle stress– good simulation– field experiences– 3 weeks
– fast testing, – levels, – “new”– based on standards– destructive (TTF)– RCA always necessary– existing tests– single stress
– 1 week
– fast testing, – levels, – “new”– no standards– destructive (TTF)– RCA always necessary– new test– combined stress
– 1 day *
* except preparations
3. Toekomst van Reliability
A paperless office has about as much chance as a paperless bathroom (anonymous)
• Benchmark industy development
• Reliability Maturity
time
1. Reliability Roadmap
SingleSimulation
SimulationPrograms
CombinedTesting
SingleRobustness
Robustness Programs
HALT
HASS
production testing
Simulation Robustness Acceleration
?
Virtual??
ROSE
ESS
Q$
tR
p
PoF?
Base: PLOT members / CEEES / supplier base
HVS, HASS, HASTTestfilosophy
Mmtfocus
MEOST
Utmost dynamic environments
RAFTING ORGANISATIONS
• flat structure – minimum mmt layers• structure organised around core*• 3 to 5 core processess• outsourcing of non-core processes• multifunctional and multi employable teams• simple directive structure with clear
tasks, responsibilities and targets• orderly, manoeuvrable (flexible), sober unit,
but extremely good organised for task
* core processes, core activities, core competencies.
Sources: Van der Hart and Gelderman, Business Marketing, 2003Gelderman, Management competencies
RAFT TESTING
• speed – fast testing • tailored testing, based on life cycle • appropriate test methods• early testing or early analysis • immediate feedback• prediction (mixed models, calculations)
Analysis, Modelling or Test
VIRTUAL
FMECA
CALC
LCA
physics
…
P/F
Reliability Maturity Model
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… .…
TargetCompiterPartner
Match
Analyseren en testen= breed mogelijk inzicht= selektie test filosofie
VIRTUAL
FMECA
CALC
LCA
physics
…
P/F
What’s your point today … and tomorrow?
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Reliability Maturity Model
Reliability Maturity Model
• Insight current position– SWOT – focus areas, analysis or testing
• Benchmark your position– with suppliers/test houses– with competitors
• Strategy development– current and wanted position– vision (how to develop, which direction)
© www.reliability-test.nl
Importance of Reliabilityno longer voluntary – it’s a must!
The future• Industry need fast, controlled and low cost tools
– competitive advantage
• Predictions and control – and Life Cycle Analysis
• Role of Virtual Simulation and Modelling – combined with physical measurement and testing (replace?)– as design tool – interactive & intepretation -
• Tailored Testing– based on LCA and rapid test techniques
• Green environment– new failmodes and approaches
• Communication in the complex and turbulent environment– fragmentation, outsourcing, freelancing
Review and tips
1. Importance of reliability – adapt to contingency, total picture & forces
(follow tendencies) PLOT
2. Test phylosophies– start with levels testing already now
(insight, prevent underperformance AND overkill) ROSE - HALT
3. Reliability maturity– find your and partners position and help/use each other
(strategy) RMM