the impact of social models

8/14/2019 The Impact of Social Models

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THE IMPACT OFSOCIAL MODELS

LUKE WROBLEWSKIIDEA2009 TORONTO, CANADA

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Flickr photo bythreecee


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Flickr photo by bylaurat

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Behavior is a function of social context.

Flickr photo by Renata Deim


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Nobody smokes in church no matter howaddicted. Richard Farson

Flickr photo by stevecadman

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The Power of Context

Small features of context can produce hugedifferences in behavior.

So what is the impact of specific social modelson peoples online behavior?


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Idiots of Ants

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Social Relationships (modeled) Online

No Relationship

Community

GroupsPublic, Semi-public, PrivateSymmetrical/2-way

Asymmetrical/1-wayPermissioned, Blocked


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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?

480% increase in contribution when number ofrelationships increased by 20

NMOAWE

NUMBER OF RELATIONSHIPS

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No Relationship


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THE WEB

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No Relationship (but both on the Web)

LocationGPS: 10m (outdoors only)WiFi: 50m (now with geolocation api)Cell tower: 100-400m (triangulated)TechnologyDevice: palm, lap, desk, wallOperating SystemBrowser: capabilities availableSettings

Browser History


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A COMMUNITYTHE WEB

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A Community


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A Community (1 to many relationship)

Are users on the same siteCan interact with each otherMessaging and/or collaborationLeave visible traces of behaviorCan manage identity (profile)

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Source: Questioning Yahoo! Answers, 2007 ACM

Yahoo! Answers user base interacts witheach other as one large community

In a graph of 700k askers and 550Kanswerers

Found one connected component of1.2M nodes

And 1.6Ksmall components of2-3 nodes This indicates most users are connected

through some questions & answers Holds even for geographic categories

(Local business)


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Source: http://www.lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?448

1.8% of all users write morethan 70% of all Wikipediaarticles

.003%of diggs users areresponsible for 56% of thestories on the sites home page

.o64% creator to consumerration on YouTube

90% of eBays users are notbeing monetized according toestimates

1% Creators 10% Curators 100% Consumers

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A GROUP

THE WEBA COMMUNITY


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A Group

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A Group (1 to many relationship)

A set of people within a communityClearly defined relationshipTopic, relationship, or collaboration basedCan be long-lived or temporaryConvenient communication: one to many


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Relationship-based Support existing offline & personal relationships Communication is more personal in nature Coordinating events, meetings, etc. Lighter posting volume but more interestTopical Provides information about specific topics Allows members to stay aware/up to date Archives information Higher posting volume, but high noise to signal

ratio

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Listed & Unlisted Listed: can be found through search or

browse

Unlisted: discovered through an invitationor posted URL

Open, Restricted, or Closed Open: non- members may read and post

messages

Restricted: only members can view/post,but membership is automatically granted

Closed: only members can view/post,moderator must approve membership

Source: Preferential Behavior in Online Groups, 2007 ACM


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PublicAnyone can view & postSemi-publicAnyone can join, only members can view & postPrivateOnly members can join & post

Source: Preferential Behavior in Online Groups, 2007 ACM

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THE WEBA COMMUNITY

A GROUPA PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP


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A Personal Relationship

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Symmetrical/2-way/connection

Confirmed & controlled by both sidesSharing enabled as part of handshakeWhen either side severs, relationship is goneOften no notification when severedCan be used to mirror real world relationships


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Symmetrical/2-way/connection

10% of users account for30% of production

12% of Facebook usersupdate their status daily

40% of Facebook users haveupdated status in past 7 days

1.89% of page views arecontribution (photos,content, videos, events)

Source: Facebook statistics: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

Comscore Page View data July, 2009

Facebook app data for friend updates (300+ users)

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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow

Declared by one-sideEasy to establish (no reciprocal action required)Can maintain privacy control through permissionsSupports multiple relationship structuresOften more public than 2-way relationships


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1-way follow A follows B (one direction) B follows A (other direction) A follows B, B follows A (mutual) A nor B follow each otherBlocking A blocks B (cant follow)Private accounts A has private account, allows B

(permissioned follow)

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Categorized 1-way Flickr example A can follow B A can optionally mark B as friend,

family, or both

Friend and family categories enablepermissions (restricted photosharing)

B does not have to reciprocaterelationship to see permissionedcontent (unlike a 2-way)


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Permissioned 1-way Y! Messenger example A sends B a request B accepts, then A has to accept Once permission is given, there is no

way to revoke it (unlike 2-way)

Can only appear offline or ignore/block them

The two 1-way relationships areindependent

But may be perceived by users as 2-way

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Is Following Has a Private

Account

Has Blocked Marked as

Family

Marked as

Friend

User A Yes Yes Yes Yes

User B Yes Yes

User C Yes

User D Yes


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Twitter Users 10% of users account for 90%

of production

50% have not updated status inpast 7 days

55% are not following anyone 52% have no followers

Source: Inside Twitter study, Sysomos June 2009

State of the Twittersphere, Hubspot, June 2009

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Social Relationships (modeled) Online

No Relationship

Community

GroupsPublic, Semi-public, PrivateSymmetrical/2-way

Asymmetrical/1-wayPermissioned, Blocked


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2-way vs. 1-way

12% of all Facebook users update their status at leastonce a day (2-way model)

40.5% of Facebook users have updated status inpast 7 days (2-way model)

14.7% of all Twitter users post an update at leastonce a day (1-way model)

49.6% of all Twitter users posted an update in past7 days (1-way model)

Source: Facebook statistics: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

Inside Twitter study, Sysomos June 2009

Facebook app data for friend updates (300+ users)

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2-way vs. 1-way

30% of production comes from 10% of users on atypical (2-way model) social network

90% of production comes from 10% of users onTwitter (1-way model)

Source: Harvard Business Review research by Bill Heil and Mikolaj Piskorski, June 2009


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Community vs. 2-way .0032% page views vs. video uploads on YouTube

worldwide

1.89% page views vs. content contribution (notcounting status updates & comments) on Facebook

worldwide

58,000% more contribution?

Source: Facebook & YouTube site statics and ComScore PVs August 2009

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Top 10% of Twitter users account for 90% of content Top 15% or Wikipedia users account for 90% of content Top 30% of typical social network users users account for 90% of content

Source: Harvard Business Review research by Bill Heil and Mikolaj Piskorski, June 2009

%OFCONTRIBUTION

100%

0%

50%

100%0% 50%% OF USERS


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Yes, but theres more to it1. Relationship limits exist in all models2. Tight knit circles flourish in all models3. Communication activity can reveal tight knit circles that

matter

4. The more attention you get, the more you contribute to apoint

5. 1-way relationships are optimized for broad reach6. But real relationships drive more production7. Creation can be encouraged in other ways

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Relationship limits exist

120average number of friends per useron Facebook in Feb 2009

144 average on Facebook 2004- March2006

92.4% of people on Twitter followlessthan 100 people

148size of stable social networks thehuman brain can manage at its currentsize (Robin Dunbar)


Primates on Facebook, Economist, Feb 2009

Source: Rhythms of social interaction, HP Labs


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Relationship limits exist

Source: Rhythms of social interaction, HP Labs

State of the Twittersphere, Hubspot, June 2009

NUMBEROFUSERS

NUMBER FOLLOWING

10M

0

1k

1k 010k5k 10 100 1k 10k

NUMBER FRIENDS

100 people or lessfollowed by 92.4% of users

120avg. numberof friends per user

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Tight knit circles flourish

2-3 average clique size on Y! Answers beforesocial relationships were added

4 average people a man messages on Facebook 6 average people a woman messages on Facebook 7average friendss walls a man on Facebook

posts to

10average friendss walls a woman on Facebookposts to 13 average friends for 92% of Twitter users

Source: Questioning Yahoo! Answers, 2007 ACM

Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009

Primates on Facebook, Economist, Feb 2009


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90% of a users friends reciprocate attention by beingfriends as well.

RECIPORCALFRIENDS

NUMBER OF FRIENDS

120

0

60

0 12060

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Communication reveals relationships

90%reciprocal relationships on Twitterwhen two sides exchanged at least two@ messages

15.1% of Facebook friends exchangedirect messages

95% accuracy for detecting real friendsusing mobile call logs & location


BBC News: Mobile data show friend networks

Rhythms of social interaction, HP Labs


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65 millionactive Facebookmobile users

12 mobile platforms withFacebook applications

23 minutes of use per day spentby Facebook mobile users

Source: Facebook blog, Sept 2009

ComScore Mobile Metrix, July 2009


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More attention, more contribution

3 to 6change in average daily Twitterupdates when get 1,000 followers

10 average daily Twitter updates with1,750 followers

480% increase in questions answered onY! Answers when relationships increased

by 20


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Less attention, less contribution

Source: Crowdsourcing, Attention, and Productivity September 2008

As contributors approach their last video upload, theaverage previous views exhibited a marked linear decrease

AVERAGEVIEWS

ITH LAST VIDEO UPLOADED

3400

1400

2400

0 10050


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More contribution to a point

When relationships increased by 20, contributionincreased by 480% When relationships increased by 20 again, contribution

dropped by 35%

NMOAWE


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More contribution to a point


Though number of posts increases as followers increase, iteventually saturates

NUMBERPOSTS

NUMBER OF FOLLOWERS

1200

0

600

0 1000500


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1-way relationships optimize for reach

Like topic-based groups, 1-way allows people tostay connected with interests

Only a lightweight subscribe action is required Having followers encourages contribution (see

who likes you!) & builds audience

Though a broadcast format, still enablesconversation

Allows for asymmetrical relationships (5,000followers, 150 following)

Public updates allow information & messages toamplify

Better aligned with celebrities, brands,companies: quantity indicates popularity, orauthority

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1-way relationships optimize for reach

90% of a Facebook pages fanscan be a part of a singleconnected group

15% of all fans arrivedindependently and started theirown chain

These patterns hold for pageswith few thousand fans and thosewith more than 50,000

Source: Gesundheit! Modeling Contagion through Facebook News Feed, May 2009


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Real relationships drive production

0-1-2 effect: probability ofjoining an activity when two friendshave done it is significantly morethan twice the probability of doing it

when only one has done so

Source: Convergence of Social & Technical networks, Communications of the ACM N ov 2008

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Real relationships drive production


Total number of posts increases with friends withoutsaturating up to 3,200 posts

NUMBEROFPOSTS

NUMBER OF FRIENDS

3200

0

1600

0 250175


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Contribution as friends increase does not saturate like itdoes for followers

NUMBEROFPOSTS


3200

0

1600

0 1000500

FOLLOWERS

FRIENDS

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Its not just relationships


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Blogwww.lukew.com/ff/

Twitter@lukewdesign

[email protected]

Thank You!

the impact of social models

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