The Impact of Globalization, Trade Agreementsand Emerging Trade Blocs on U.S. Industry

As we enter into the 21st century, a new era is approaching at warp speed that is affectingvirtually every aspect of our lives. As a result, many economic assumptions no longer seemto apply yet new realities still need to be defined. These ambiguities are causing us toquestion our business tactics and reassess our strategies.

Ushered in with this new era are dynamic trends toward globalization, the proliferation oftrade agreements and the resulting emergence of competing trade blocs that are taking usby storm. They affect every nation, every level of industry, and virtually every business.Keeping up with these changes is extremely difficult. And basing decisions on oldassumptions undoubtedly will lead to undesirable outcomes.

Every country in the world is touched by the globalization trend. In order to survive in the 21st century, companies in every industryare taking steps to expand internationally through trade and investment. And those companies that do not recognize this trend willlikely become a fatality of globalization.

For many years, the United States enormous internal market has more than satisfied the needs of U.S. industry. But today, this isno longer the case. The world is quickly becoming economically integrated, forcing unprecedented changes at every level of industry.As a result, U.S. companies, small and large, are facing record levels of foreign competition. Consequently, for companies to surviveand remain competitive in this environment, it takes more than a quality product at an attractive price. Today, it requiresinternational expansion.

A primary economic goal of the United States is to maintain a high and rising standard of living. To achieve this, the United States,which accounts for only 4 percent of the worlds population, must sell and to the other 96 percent. Many U.S. firms have come tounderstand this and are developing strategies designed to support worldwide exportation and investment. In fact, in just the lastdecade, the number of companies exporting especially small and medium-size companies has increased significantly.According to President Clinton, Exports now account for almost one-third of real U.S. economic growth and are expected to growfaster than overall economic activity for the remainder of this decade.

From 1988 through 1997, U.S. exports of goods and services increased from $430.2 billion to $932.3 billion, an increase of 117percent. In 1997, the Office of Economic Affairs, Executive Office of the President, reported that U.S. exports of goods and servicessupported 12 million American jobs. Predictions indicate that by the year 2000, exports will support 16 million jobs. In fact, thenumber of export-related jobs has grown six times faster than total U.S. employment. Whats more, according to the Office of theChief Economist, Office of International Macroeconomic Analysis, Department of Commerce, workers in jobs supported directly byexports are paid 20% higher than the average national wage. Workers in jobs supported directly in high-technology industries arepaid 34% more. And workers in jobs supported both directly and indirectly by exports are paid 13% more.

The non-traditional export of services also will become a major generator of economic growth in the future for many U.S. sectors.Typically, services now account for 60 to 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for industrial members of the Organization forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD). And because services are not yet internationally traded on a large scale, thebenefit to their trade balances is not yet evident. Currently, international trade in services is growing at a faster rate than trade ingoods, almost 13 percent faster from 1985 through 1996. As this trend continues, service exports will have a greater and greaterpositive impact on a companys and countrys trade balance.

There is no doubt that companies that export generally fare better than companies that do not. According to a report published bythe Institute for International Economics and The Manufacturing Institute, research organizations based in Washington, D.C.,

The Trend Toward Globalization

U.S. Trade and Investment Is Rising

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By John Manzella Thursday, January 01, 1998 | Topic: U.S.

http://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/u-s/469-the-impact-of-globalization-trade-agreements-and-emerging-trade-blocs-on-us-industry?tmpl=component&print=1&layout=default&page=http://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/component/mailto/?tmpl=component&template=rt_syndicate&link=95d06ea5df0e4ce6198faa66b851727a518a515fhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/u-s/469-the-impact-of-globalization-trade-agreements-and-emerging-trade-blocs-on-us-industryhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/advanced-searchhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-finance/966-why-ex-im-bank-reauthorization-is-essential-to-american-businesseshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-finance/954-currency-manipulation-and-the-trans-pacific-partnershiphttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-finance/932-the-myths-and-realities-of-free-tradehttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-finance/925-the-direction-of-the-u-s-mexican-partnershiphttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/manufacturing/856-is-the-revival-of-u-s-manufacturing-realhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-finance/966-why-ex-im-bank-reauthorization-is-essential-to-american-businesseshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/politics/964-all-business-is-global-what-companies-employees-and-congress-need-to-dohttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-finance/965-currency-wars-misinformation-and-trade-deficitshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/economy/963-home-ownership-reveals-much-about-the-economyhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/u-s/962-net-neutrality-why-it-s-crucial-to-every-consumer-and-businesshttp://www.manzellareport.com/http://www.manzellareport.com/http://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/u-shttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/worldhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/politicshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/trade-financehttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/laborhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/manufacturinghttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/economyhttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/home/impact-analysishttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/home/trends-forecastshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/home/strategieshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/home/videoshttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/home/speakershttps://plus.google.com/u/0/b/108194465403228667812/108194465403228667812/postshttp://www.facebook.com/TheManzellaReportcom?ref=hlhttp://www.youtube.com/user/theManzellaReporthttps://twitter.com/ManzellaReporthttp://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/u-s

manufacturing companies involved in exporting:

Are larger than non-exporting companieson average four times larger in employment and six times larger in sales;Adopt new technologies more frequently than non-exporting companies;Have an advantage in avoiding plant shutdowns compared to non-exporting companies of the same industry, size, and capitalintensity;Had an average annual failure rate of only 3 percent, as compared to 9 percent for non-exporters, during an 11-year period; andAvoided employment shrinkage to a greater extent than other similar manufacturing companies during an 11-year period.

Many companies in foreign countries already have been affected by globalization. For example, approximately 30 percent ofCanadian gross national product (GNP) is dependent on exports. Hence, in order for Canada to maintain its high standard of living,Canadian companies must operate on economies of scale that necessitate larger markets than are provided by its domesticpopulation base of only 27 million. As a result, Canadian exports are of extreme importance to Canadian companies and to theoverall well-being of the Canadian economy. Very simply, many Canadian companies must export or go out of business.

Companies in many other areas of the world, especially Belgium and Hong Kong, also have small domestic markets and need toexport to maintain their high standards of living. In many cases, what is exported are actually imports to which value has beenadded by some means.

For the first time, in 1996, world merchandise exports exceeded $5 trillion. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), theUnited States was the leader, with 11.8 percent of world merchandise export share. However, on a per capita basis, the United Statesranked low as compared to other developed countries. Germany was second with 9.9 percent; followed by Japan with 7.9 percent;France with 5.5 percent; the United Kingdom with 4.9 percent; Italy with 4.8 percent; Canada with 3.8 percent; and the Netherlandswith 3.8 percent. Interestingly, in ninth place was Hong Kong with 3.4 percent of world export market share; in 11th place wasChina with 2.9 percent, a country with a massive population compared to Hong Kong.

With the proliferation of trade agreements, which are resulting in the emergence of competing trade blocs, businesses are striving togain secure access to foreign markets, and in turn, are achieving a higher degree of economic security and competitiveness.

Since 1992, major agreements, such the North American Free TradeAgreement, as well as 200 other lesser-known trade agreements, havebeen negotiated with the United States. They are responsible forsubstantially reducing foreign trade barriers, allowing U.S. companiesto export more of their products. Numerous other trade agreements that have acted as building blocks in the establishment of trade blocs have been negotiated that do not include the United States. Theseinclude the Central American Common Market, the Asia-PacificEconomic Cooperation Forum, the Arab League, the Andean Pact, theEconomic Community of West Africa, the Association of SoutheastAsian Nations, and the East Asia Economic Caucus, to name a few.

Most trade agreements owe their success, at least in part, to priorreductions in trade barriers between the parties to the agreement. Forexample, integration and cooperation in the iron, steel, coal, andnuclear energy sectors set a precedent for Western Europe to teardown barriers in other sectors. The U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement was preceded in 1965 by the Automotive Products TradeAct, which allowed duty-free trade between the United States and Canada in almost all motor vehicles and parts. The progeny ofthese agreements more internationally competitive industries have made business and government leaders in participatingcountries aware of the benefits derived by the elimination of trade barriers.

But trade agreements have affected more than just trade barriers; they have had a major impact on trade and investment worldwide.In fact, they are responsible for shaping business relationships among companies across the globe.

Today, the three largest trade blocs include the European Union, chiefly involving West European countries and spreadingeastward; the North American Free Trade Agreement, among Canada, the United States and Mexico and spreading south; and aninformal bloc in East Asia, currently dominated by Japan, but soon to be dominated by China. Based on past trade patterns andpolicies, and anticipated policies, these blocs will continue to develop, gaining increased strength and influence.

The European Union (EU) now encompasses 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland,

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Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Many other countries are waiting for fullmembership. Turkey applied in 1987; Cyprus and Malta applied in 1990; Switzerland applied in 1992; and Hungary and Polandapplied in 1994. Six countries applied in 1995: Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria. And, the Czech Republicapplied for membership in 1996. As the EU expands, it will continue to gain greater economic and political strength, in addition toan enhanced level of global competitiveness. Thus, should all Eastern European countries eventually become members of the EU, itsnumbers of consumers would swell to 850 million to 900 million.

In 1997, U.S. exports to Western Europe exceeded $155 billion, up by more than 32 percent from 1990, and far exceeded exports toEastern Europe, which barely reached $7.7 billion. U.S. direct investment throughout Europe has outpaced exports, and reachedalmost $365 billion in 1995, an increase of 54.6 percent since 1991. In fact, according to an Arthur Andersen report on internationalinvestment, Europe was the worlds largest recipient of foreign investment in 1995.

In recent years, trade among East Asian nations has increased at a much faster pace than trade outside the region. Through thedevelopment of several trade agreements such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), comprised of Malaysia,the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, and Indonesia the region is becoming more trade-cohesive. However, economicintegration is primarily influenced by Japanese investment in the region, creating an informal trade bloc. Even considering theAsian financial crisis that began in 1997, which will no doubt have a massive impact on regional developments and world growth,many predict that Asia will still become the worlds dominant region in the next decade.

Prior to the Asian financial crisis, many Asian economies were growing at the fastest rates in the world. However, as the regionemerges from the crisis, its purchasing power will again increase at favorable rates and provide a plethora of export and investmentopportunities. According to a report published by the Asian Development Bank, A modest recovery is expected in the affectedeconomies in 1999, but recovery to pre-GDP growth rates and per capita income levels will take a number of years. The reportpredicted that the Asian Development Banks 35 developing member countries would see average GDP growth decline to 4 percent,as compared to 6.1 percent in 1997. Yet, growth is expected to recover to approximately 5.1 percent in 1999.

Many U.S. companies that have watched Asian economic developments closely over the last decade do not appear to be dissuaded.Thus, many are positioning themselves to take advantage of new opportunities, while establishing new strategies to mitigate riskscaused by the economic crisis.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was implemented on January 1, 1994, creating a trade area of 360 millionconsumers and ensuring secure markets for U.S., Canadian and Mexican products. One of the primary goals of NAFTA is toencourage expansion of business partnerships to promote greater efficiency, and to counter fierce competition from the Far Eastand Europe. So far, NAFTA appears to be working.

Since the Agreements implementation, there has been a proliferation of joint ventures and strategic alliances between U.S. andMexican companies. Already strong ties with Canada also have prospered. The benefits derived from this teamwork will continue tomake the United States, Canada and Mexico more globally competitive at a time when regional trade alliances are becomingincreasingly important in the world economy.

For the first time in 1997, Mexico followed Canada as the United States second largest export destination, pushing Japan into thirdplace. And the coming Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) in which all the benefits given to Mexico and Canada underNAFTA will be extended to the rest of Central and South America will further increase cooperation among nations in the WesternHemisphere. Such an agreement will make the Americas one of the largest trading areas in the world, with a population of 750million consumers, and combined gross domestic product of more than $9 trillion.

Production sharing occurs when various aspects of an article's manufacture are performed in more than one country. U.S.companies regard this as an important tool allowing them to improve the relative price competitiveness of their products, help themkeep higher wage jobs in the United States, and provide an important market for U.S. exports of components.

The growth in U.S. production sharing imports (primarily under HS 9802.00.80) in 1994 resulted mainly from larger shipments ofmotor vehicles and parts, televisions, and other electronic products from Mexico; apparel from the Caribbean Basin and Mexico;and semiconductors from Southeast Asia. Today, a production sharing shift is underway with more foreign assembly moving toLatin America and away from East Asia.

U.S. textile manufacturers are one group that illustrates the benefits from closer economic integration with Latin America andcooperation in production sharing. As such, the United States is one of the worlds largest and most efficient producers of textile millproducts. However, over the years, textile manufacturers output has dropped, primarily due to a reduction in apparel production inthe United States the single largest market for the textile industry. East Asian producers of apparel have become major suppliers

East Asia

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to the United States. Unfortunately for U.S. textile producers, the East Asians source their textiles in East Asia, not in the UnitedStates.

In an attempt to sustain remaining domestic market share, U.S. apparel producers have expanded their production-sharingoperations in Mexico and the Caribbean benefiting from the lower wages and tariff preferences. This activity also benefits the U.S.textile industry. Under a free trade agreement of the Americas, more U.S.-controlled apparel production will move to Latin Americafrom East Asia. U.S. textile mills will likely supply Latin apparel producers, where as Asian producers will continue to source theirtextiles in Asia. Importantly, a free trade agreement of the Americas will secure Latin American market share for U.S. firms vis-a-visEuropean and Asian firms.

Within each of the worlds trade blocs, small and large, free trade will continue to become more entrenched. Future trade betweenblocs is not so clear. Many fear that individual blocs will become inwardly focused and protectionist. Even if protectionism does notemerge outright, trade diversion could have a similar effect. Trade diversion occurs when members of a trade group buy more goodsfrom each other due to the elimination of internal trade barriers, and displace non-member goods. For manufacturers anddistributors, foreign market share may be at risk.

Should the EU or the Asian emerging bloc turn inward and establish protectionist measures, U.S. firms could be at a disadvantage.Or through trade diversion, its possible that EU and Asian bloc members will purchase more goods from their own blocs at theexpense of non-member firms. However, provided the EU or Asia does not look inward and establish protectionist measures, a moreeconomically viable Europe and Asia could result in more U.S. imports. Further integration among EU members, for example,creating one set of standards and regulations, could make the export and investment process less complex for outsiders.

Many U.S. manufacturers, small and large, have taken steps to expand internationally. However, many have not and need to orface stiffer competition for shrinking market share. In an effort to remain competitive, many U.S. firms will need to engage inproduction sharing. And many state and local governments that have not developed a strategy to accommodate these changesquickly will need to do so.

With the understanding that developing countries will continue to compete for low-technology, labor-intensive jobs, the Canadiangovernment has shrewdly positioned Canadian industry to compete well into the next century. It has identified and shiftedresources to industries where it has a competitive edge and created investment policies to suit the needs of its target market:manufacturers of high-technology goods.

Many U.S. state and local governments should heed Canada's policy direction, which has been responsible for attracting the type ofinvestment that will help make Canada and its workers competitive for years to come. If not, highly sought after foreign investmentthat is vital to creating high-paying U.S. jobs will float to more attractive locations.

This article appeared in U.S. Sites and Development, 1998

About The Author John Manzella [Full Bio]

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John Manzella, a world-recognized author and speaker on global business, competitive strategies andthe latest economic trends, is editor-in-chief of The Manzella Report, and president of Manzella TradeCommunications Inc., a strategic communications, publishing and consulting firm.

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