the impact of covid-19 on micro, small and medium...

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Talent Development & Excellence

Vol.12, No.2s, 2020, 3454-3469

ISSN 1869-0459 (print)/ISSN 1869-2885 (online)

© 2020 International Research Association for Talent Development and Excellence

http://www.iratde.com

The Impact of Covid-19 on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)

in East Java Province, Indonesia and Strategies for Overcoming: Ad Interim

Oscarius Yudhi Ari Wijaya

Office Management Study Program,

Akademi Sekretari dan Manajemen Indonesia (ASMI) Surabaya

Jln. Menganti Kramat 133, Surabaya-60228, Indonesia

E-mail : [email protected] / [email protected]

Abstract

This qualitative study seeks to present the impact of Covid-19 on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises

(MSMEs) in East Java Province, Indonesia. The author believes and tries to capture the phenomenon of

the impact of an outbreak on the micro economy in a region. From interviews with several informants

namely MSME entrepreneurs and conducting literature studies, it was found that a pandemic such as

Covid-19 had a very significant impact on reducing sales revenue from MSME entrepreneurs even by up

to 80%. This research found that the impact of the pandemic is very large on the economy due to a sharp

fall in sales revenue and excessive concern will worsen the impact of the pandemic which can result in

worsening economic conditions on a more massive scale. With the facts found in this study it is hoped

that better strategies can be found in anticipating or at least minimizing the impact of a pandemic such as

Covid-19, therefore the author use the term "Ad Interim" in the title of this article.

Keywords: Covid-19, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), Economy, Ad Interim.

Introduction

Covid-19 now seems to be the scariest thing for everyone. How could it not? considering that this

Corona virus attack can cause fatal consequences to take lives in a relatively short time, especially for

vulnerable groups due to age factors and factors of comorbidities, not to mention the highly contagious

nature to other humans. Inevitably, the Covid-19 epidemic has an extraordinary multiplier effect on the

lives of humanity. Not only the health sector, but it also threatens all aspects of life, from security, social,

culture and even the economy.

In the economic sector, fear of life-threatening terror has become a part of daily life amid the

outbreak of Covid-19 caused by the Corona virus. Remembering to this day, news of an increase in

infections due to Covid-19 continues to increase and an increasing number of sufferers are dead. There is

no factor that has the most influence on the economic downturn except terror of intense fear, which

threatens the lives of economic actors (human beings). "Fear usually helps us avoid harmful and

potentially dangerous situations. However, if we let it gain control, it can cause great harm,” writes

Patrick W. Watson (2018), a Senior Editor of Mauldin Economics and Senior Forbes contributor on the

heading "It's Fear That Is Crippling Our Economy". In line with this, a founder of the Financial

Psychology Institute, Brad Klontz (2019), who is also the author of "Mind Over Money", emphasized

When we get scared, our rational brain shuts down and our emotions take over.

The "fear" theory in the economy has at least been quipped by the online Newsweek Business

Daily (2008), with the headline "The Anatomy of Fear, and Its Effect on the Economy" when the United

States economy faced a wave of crisis threat in 2008. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,"

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asserted Franklin Delano Roosevelt in March 1933, amid the worst prolonged financial crisis in the

country's history. The banking system is a mess and unemployment reaches 25 percent. When comparison

between the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Depression had become commonplace, it became clear

that fear itself was Wall Street's biggest fear (Newsweek, 2008).

Regarding the pandemic, empirically, it can be seen how the 1918 Flu Pandemic threatened the

economic life as a whole in its time. Not enough there, learning from previous pandemic occurences that

still fresh from the mind, such as the case of EBOLA, SARS, and MERS which also had haunted the

economies of several affected countries, seemed to be a valuable lesson of the psychological effects of

excessive pandemic fear has on the economy .

This paper tries to trace the effects of several epidemics / pandemics on the economy of the

affected countries, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy of MSMEs in our country, and

how to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic proportionally according to the manner and degree of the virus

transmission threat without having to have an excessive impact on the economy.

Literature Review

1. Prior Research

McKibbin and Fernando (2020) examined the global impact of Covid-19 on Macroeconomic

(The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios). The research found that in the

short term, the central bank and the finance department need to ensure that the disrupted economy

continues ito ifunction iwhile ithe iepidemic icontinues. iIn ithe iface iof ireal iand ifinancial

ipressure, ithere iis ian iimportant irole ifor ithe igovernment. iWhile icutting iinterest irates iis ia

ipossible iresponse ifor ithe icentral ibank, ithe ishock iis inot ionly ia imatter iof idemand

imanagement ibut ia icrisis iof ivarious iaspects ithat iwill irequire ia imonetary, ifiscal, iand ihealth

ipolicy iresponse. iQuarantining iaffected ipeople iand ireducing ilarge-scale isocial iinteractions iare

ieffective iresponses. iThe iwidespread iof igood ihygiene ipractices ias ioutlined iin iLevine iand

iMcKibbin i(2020) ican ibe ia ilow icost iand ivery ieffective iresponse ithat ican ireduce

itransmission irates iand ihence ireduce isocial iand ieconomic icosts.

Long-term iresponse iis ieven imore iimportant. iDespite ithe ipotential iloss iof ilife iand ithe

ipossibility iof ilarge-scale idisruption to a large number of people, many governments are reluctant to

invest sufficiently in the health care system, especially ias ithe ipublic ihealth isystem iin iless

ideveloped icountries iwhere imany iinfectious idiseases iare ilikely ito ioriginate. iExperts ihave

ibeen iwarning iand icontinue ito iwarn ithat izoonotic idiseases iwill icontinue ito ibe ia ithreat ito

ithe ilives iof imillions iof ipeople iwith ithe ipotential ifor imajor idisruptions ito ithe iintegrated

iworld ieconomy. iThe iidea ithat iany icountry ican ibecome ian i(separate) iisland iin ian iintegrated

iglobal ieconomy iis iproven iwrong iwith ithe ilatest ioutbreak iof iCOVID-19. iGlobal icooperation,

iespecially iin ithe ifields iof ipublic ihealth iand ieconomic idevelopment, iis ivery iimportant. iAll

imajor icountries imust iactively iparticipate. iIt's itoo ilate ito iact iafter ithe idisease ihas ispread iin

imany iother icountries iand ithen itrying ito iclose ithe iborders ionce ithe ipandemic starts.

2. Macroeconomics and Microeconomics

Macroeconomics (Greek macro = 'big') describes and explains economic processes as a whole

(aggregate). Aggregates are many economic subjects which are divided into several general ones. In

contrast, microeconomics treats economic processes that are of individual concern (Kunst, 2006).

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Microeconomics focuses on the actions of individual agents in the economy, such as

households, workers, and businesses. Macroeconomics views the economy as a whole. It focuses on

broad issues such as production growth, the number of unemployed people, rising inflation prices,

government deficits, and the level of exports and imports. Microeconomics and macroeconomics are

not separate subjects, but rather complementary perspectives on the subject of the economy as a

whole (Greenlaw, 2011: 14).

3. Psychological Aspects and Economic Behavior

Microeconomic perspective explains the relationship between psychological aspects with

consumer behavior, which can be based on marketing theory. According to Engel et al. (1990: 22)

and Schiffman & Kanuk (1997: 8), consumer behavior is considered a relatively new field of study.

Therefore, it is sometimes borrowed from other disciplines, such as psychology (individual studies),

and sociology (group studies), social psychology (studies of how individuals operate in groups),

anthropology (the influence of society on individuals) and economics.

Kotler (2000: 172) states that Freud assumes that the psychological forces that shape people's

behavior are largely unconscious, so people cannot fully understand their own motivations. Foxall

(1990: 10), presents a sophisticated integration of psychological influences and various social and

marketing influences on consumer choices, into coherent information processing sequences, by trying

to explain rational choice behavior within the limits of incomplete information and limited individual

capacity , and provides a description of behavior that can be empirically tested about behavior, related

to cognitive (psychological) functions together with their effects.

In a macroeconomic perspective, familiar psychological aspects are often associated with

capital market behavior, although this does not always have to be the case (Nugroho, Oktavio &

Kartika, 2019). Keynes (2016) argues that the psychology of the human mind causes unexpected

volatility and fluctuations in the stock market. Keynes calls spontaneous impulses to act rather than

not act affect behavior, this is what really affects the equity market.

4. Disasters and Infectious Diseases

According to the National Law No.24 Year 2007 Regarding Disaster Management, a disaster

is an event or a series of events that threaten and disrupt people’s lives and livelihoods caused by,

either natural or non-natural factors or human factors, resulting in human casualties, environmental

damage, property loss and psychological impact.

According Ministerial Decree No. 17 / kep / Menko / Kesra / x / 95, a disaster is an event or

series of events caused by nature, humans, and/or both that cause human casualties and suffering, loss

of property, damage to the environment, damage to infrastructure and public facilities and cause

disruption to people's lives and livelihoods.

Infectious diseases that cause significant deterioration in health and health services that

require extraordinary assistance from outside parties can be categorized as a disaster. According to

the Indonesian Ministry of Health (2001), the definition of disaster is an event or an occurence in an

area that results in ecological damage, loss of human livelihood, as well as deteriorating health and

significant health services that require extraordinary assistance from outside parties.

The development of Corona virus transmission became a pandemic on a global scale and

until now the transmission of the virus continues to increase in the country day by day confirms that

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the Covid-19 case is included in the category of disasters related to health problems, as defined by the

Indonesian Ministry of Health.

Research Methodology

This study uses a qualitative approach with two approaches, namely literature and descriptive

studies using a sample of informants from several real-sector business actors, especially MSMEs in East

Java (Surabaya, Sidoarjo, Tuban, Gresik) with accidental sampling as the sampling technique, where

accidentally meeting business actors then interviewed them related to the condition of their businesses in

the midst of the health disaster caused by Covid-19.

The factors (variables) that are the focus of the study in this research concern with

macroeconomic and/or microeconomic aspects, psychological aspects in the economy, and infectious

disease disasters, which are closely related to health disasters due to the spread of epidemics/pandemics

globally (Influenza 1918, Asian Flu 1957-1958, HIV/AIDS, Ebola, and SARS), and the impact of the

spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia.

Discussion

Various research perspectives due to health disasters both in the form of epidemics and

pandemics have been carried out, including looking at macro and micro impacts based on economic

perspectives. This research globally wants to investigate how the impact of the epidemic/pandemic before

Covid-19 with a literature study approach, then explore qualitative data in the field regarding the impact

of Covid-19 on the MSME sector domestically, and try to elaborate it into a solutive construction in

dealing with the concerns about Covid-19 transmission proportionally so that it does not have an

excessive impact on the economy by mapping the ways and potential threats of Covid-19 transmission

from person to person.

1. The Impact of the Pandemy on the Economy

Disasters, in the least, always positively correlated with economic aspects, at least related to

disaster mitigation financing. And more than that if the disaster has a significant scale of impact on

human life in the affected area, it is not uncommon or almost certain to be followed by economic losses

both macro and micro. Some infectious disease pandemics can be used as basic reference parameters to

understand this concept.

a. Influenza 1918

The 1918 influenza pandemic which swallowed almost every part of the world, also known as the

"Spanish Flu", first appeared in the US and in April of the same year in the French city of Rouen.

During 1918, Europe was destroyed by the First World War, and Spain as a neutral country had all

the time to deal with the disease and its effects. Therefore the most reliable scientific fact for this

disease comes from Spain, giving the international community the false impression that Spain is the

most affected zone. The flu had spread with military forces throughout France and from there

throughout Europe, until it reached the US (Gregory Tsoucalas and Markos N Sgantzos, 2016).

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Little iRock, iArk." i“How iInfluenza iAffects iBusiness.” iThe iArkansas iGazette, iOct. i19,

1918, ihal i4 i(Thomas iA. iGarrett, 2007).

1) Traders iin iLittle iRock isay itheir ibusiness ihas ideclined i40%. iOthers iestimate ia ireduction

iof 70%.

2) The iretail iwholesale ibusiness ihas idecreased iby ione ithird.

3) I One idepartment istore, iwhich ihad ia i$15,000 ibusiness ievery iday i($ i200,265 iin i2006

dollars), did not do more than half.

4) Bed irest iis iemphasized iin iinfluenza itreatment. iAs ia iresult, ithere ihas been an increase iin

idemand ifor ibeds, imattresses iand ispringbeds.

5) I The iLittle iRock ibusiness loses $10,000 a day on average ($ 133,500 in 2006 dollars). This is

an actual loss, inot ia idecrease iin ibusiness ithat ican ibe iborne iby iincreased isales iwhen ithe

iorder iquarantine iis icompleted. iCertain iitems icannot ibe isold later.

6) The ionly ibusiness iin iLittle iRock iwhere ithere ihas ibeen ian iincrease iin iis idrug ishop

activity.Memphis, Tenn. I

"Memphis iIndustries iInfluenza iCrippling." iThe iCommercial iAppeal, iOct. i5,1918, ip. i7

1) Doctors ireport ithey iare itoo ibusy ifighting idisease ito ireport ithe inumber iof itheir ipatients

iand ihave ilittle itime ito idevote ito iother ithings.

2) Industrial ifactories iare irunning iunder ihuge iobstacles. iMany iwho ihave idone iso ilack

assistance ibecause iof ithe idesign.

3) Of ia itotal iof iabout i400 iemployees iworking iin ithe iMemphis iStreet iRailway itransportation

department, i124 imen iare iparalyzed, iwhich icause ilimited iservices.

4) The iCumberland iTelephone iCo. ireports imore ithan ione ihundred ioperators iabsent ifrom their

workplaces. iThe itelephone icompany irequests ithat icalls ithat ido inot ineed ito ibe iremoved.

"Tennessee Mines May Shut Down." The Commercial Appeal, October 18, 1918, p. 12.

1) A ififty ipercent idecrease iin iproduction iwas ireported iby icoal imine ioperators.

2) Mines ithroughout ieastern iTennessee iand isouthern iKentucky iare ion ithe ibrink iof iclosure

because ithe iepidemic irages iin imining icamps.

3) Coalfield, iTenn iwith ia ipopulation iof i500 ihas ionly i2% iof ihealthy ipeople.

b. Asia Flu 1957-1958

The first case was reported in Guizhou in late 1956 or February 1957 and reported in

neighboring Yunnan province before the end of February. On April 17, the Times ireported ithat ithe

iinfluenza iepidemic ihad iaffected ithousands iof iHong iKong iresidents. iIn ithe isame imonth,

iSingapore ialso iexperienced ia inew iflu iepidemic. iIn iTaiwan, i100,000 iwere iaffected iin imid-

May iand iIndia isuffered ione imillion icases iin iJune. iAt ithe iend iof iJune, ithe ipandemic

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ireached iEngland. iIn iJune i1957 iit ireached ithe iUnited iStates, iwhere iit iinitially icaused

iseveral iinfections.

The ieconomic iimpact iin ithe iUnited iStates ishows ithe iDow iJones iIndustrial iAverage

ilost i15% iof iits ivalue iin ithe isecond ihalf iof i1957 i(Pinsker, i2020). iIn ithe ilast itrimester iof

i1957, ithe igrowth irate i(on ian iannual ibasis) iwas i-4% iand iin ithe ifirst itrimester iof i1958, i-10

i%, ithe ibiggest idecline iin ihistory ipost iWorld iWar iII, ieven ibigger ithan iin ithe ifinancial

icrisis. iHowever, iin ithe ithird iand ifourth iquarters iof i1958, ithe igrowth irate ihad ijumped iback

ito inearly i10% iand ifor ithis iyear iwhen iall iGDP ideclined iby iless ithan i1%, ia ibad irecession,

ithe i3rd iworst iin ihistory ipost-World War II, inever ihappened ibefore i(Alex, i2020).

c. HIV/AIDS

Three imillion ipeople idied iof iAIDS iin i2001, imaking iit ithe ifourth ilargest icause iof

ideath iin ithe iworld, iafter iheart idisease, istroke, iand iacute ilower irespiratory itract iinfections.

iMore ithan i70% iof ithe i40 imillion ipeople iin ithe iworld iliving iwith iHIV/AIDS iare iin iAfrica.

iIn iaddition ito ihuman icosts, iHIV/AIDS ihas ia iprofound ieffect ion ithe idevelopment iof ithe

iAfrican ieconomy iand ibecause iof iits iability ito iovercome ipandemics i(Dixon, iSimon,

iMcDonald, iand Roberts, 2002).

Long illnesses associated with AIDS reduce labor productivity. One review reported that

annual costs associated with illness and reduced productivity as a result of HIV/AIDS ranged from

$17 (£12 - €19) per employee in a Kenyan car manufacturing company to $ 300 in the Uganda

Railroad Company. These costs reduce competitiveness and profits. Government income also

decreases, when tax revenue falls, and the government is pressured to increase spending, to face the

increasing AIDS prevalence, thus creating a potential fiscal crisis (Dixon, Simon, Scott McDonald,

and Jennifer Roberts, 2002).

d. Ebola

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) or Ebola Hemorrhage Fever (EHF) is a disease in humans

caused by the Ebola virus. The incubation period usually starts two days to three weeks after

contracting the virus, with fever, sore throat, muscle aches, and headaches. These symptoms are

usually accompanied by nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea, as well as decreased liver and kidney

function. In these conditions, people who are exposed to the Ebola virus begin to experience bleeding

problems. (World Health Organization, 2014).

Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone lost $2.2 Billion in GDP in 2015 as a result of the

epidemic. The biggest losses occurred in the growth of the private sector, agricultural production and

trade. A more recent study published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases estimates the total

economic and social costs of the epidemic to be $53 Billion (Corps, 2019).

Deaths from pandemics of those infected are 60 percent. The per capita mortality rate is 5

per 10,000, and the impact of GDP per capita has decreased by an average of $ 125 per person in

three countries. Prices of bauxite, iron ore, and gold have declined 30 to 60 percent compared to their

peak values in the past few years (Word Bank, 2016).

The economic and fiscal impacts have surpassed epidemiological impacts due to severe

shocks to investment, production and consumption throughout the region, coupled with commodity

price shocks. Deaths from pandemics of those infected are 60%. The per capita mortality rate is 5 per

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10,000, and the impact of GDP per capita has decreased by an average of $125 per person in three

countries. Prices of bauxite, iron ore, and gold have declined 30-to-60% compared to their peak

values in the few years beforehand (Word Bank, 2016).

e. SARS

There are at least three important points that can be stated related to the economic impact of

SARS on the affected area or even the world at large (Jong-Wha Lee and Warwick J. McKibbin,

2004). First, the fear of SARS infection caused a substantial decline in consumer demand, especially

for travel and retail sales services. The speed of transmission is fast making people avoid social

interaction in the affected area. Adverse demand shocks are becoming more substantial in regions that

have far greater service-related activities and higher population densities, such as Hong Kong or

Beijing, China. Psychological shocks are also raging throughout the world, not only to local SARS

transmission countries, because the world is so closely linked to international travel.

Second, the future of uncertain illness reduces confidence in the economic future of the

affected areas. This effect appears to be potentially very important, especially as shocks reverberate

through China, which has become a major center of foreign investment. The Chinese government's

response to the epidemic was fragmented and not transparent. Greater exposure to unknown diseases

and less effective government responses to disease outbreaks should raise concerns about the quality

of Chinese institutions and the potential for future growth. Although it is difficult to measure directly

the impact of disease on decision making by foreign investors, the loss of foreign investor confidence

will potentially have a large impact on the flow of foreign investment, which in turn will have a

significant impact on China's economic growth.

Finally, SARS undoubtedly increases disease prevention costs, especially in the most

affected industries such as the travel industry and retail sales services. These costs may not be much,

at least in global terms, as long as the disease is transmitted only by close human contact. However,

global costs can be very large if the disease is found to be transmitted through other channels such as

through international cargo.

2. Covid-19 Economic Impact on MSMEs in East Java, Indonesia

The same thing applies to the Covid-19 pandemic, which seems to show no signs of stopping. In

the case of the Covid-19 pandemic which is currently taking place, domestically alone, complaints after

complaints of economic actors in various sectors continue to emerge as an impact and an indication of the

increasingly gloomy economic outlook amid the Covid-19 pandemic attack. The economy is slowing

down as a result of communication, interaction and economic transactions continue to decline amid fears

of the transmission of the virus from one person to another through socio-economic interactions.

Take the complaints of some business actors in the country and think of it as part of the quotation

test to get just a picture of the impact of Covid-19 on the economy of MSMEs, especially in East Java.

1) There are Frozen Food sellers whose buyers are fried foods (sausages, dumplings, etc.) where the

customers are fried food sellers in elementary schools, but due to the issue of corona schools are

closed so that fried food sellers it doesn't buy anymore. The seller of frozen food dropped his sales

turnover and could not pay the bank installments, even though he only paid the interest he could not

afford it now.

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2) There are entrepreneurs of Chinese food restaurants experiencing a declining revenue of up to 80%

because none of their customers come because of restrictions on activities outside the home. To help

increase sales the entrepreneur offers food delivery services for customers who order at restaurants.

3) Contractor of a hotel building, is no longer continuing its construction due to existing restrictions.

There is an appeal not to congregate a mass of people in a location to avoid the more massive spread

of the corona virus. With the cessation of development activities, of course the contractor is certainly

having financial difficulties because the payment installments cannot of course be disbursed because

there is no progress in development.

4) The hotel businessman was forced to close his hotel due to the occupancy rate of 0 (zero) after the

corona virus issue, even when management gave a price of IDR 100k per day, no one visitor came to

stay at his hotel. All guest reservations received far in advance, are all canceled and reservation must

be returned 100%.

If these excerpt facts are not enough, it is appropriate to look at how the economic impact of

disease outbreaks on economic life in several research journals that confirms the severe consequences of a

pandemic, then there will be no shortage of material to obtain a pandemic economic impact as mentioned

earlier, including a pandemic due to SARS and Covid-19.

3. Understanding the Methods and Threats of Transmission and Recovery Method of Covid-19,

in Developing Attitudes and Behavioral Rational Economics

It is common in the face of any threat that has the potential to bring substantial economic losses,

economic stimulus policies in both the monetary and fiscal sectors are taken as the main strategy policy

way, besides of course financing in sectors directly affected by the pandemic, such as the health sector.

However, what is equally crucial is how to manage psychological factors or aspects that play a

very large and very significant role in the movement of the economy. Therefore, it should be just enough

to live under fear and worry. It is time to think that if the economy collapses it is as bad as the health

threat from the Covid-19 pandemic. It is still warm in memory and hard to forget how the economic

devastation caused by a crisis can damage almost all aspects of life for a long time. It should now not only

focus on one health problem, but both should be prevented simultaneously. How to?

Maintain economic activity as it should, but by implementing strict and disciplined health

protocols established by the government. It just needs to change habits, culture and behavior without

having to cause excessive economic impacts. When interacting, keep a safe distance (1-2 meters), avoid

crowds as much as possible, apply a healthy lifestyle (including wearing masks, exercise, washing hands,

paying attention to nutritional balance, basking in the sun between 8-10am until sweating) for disinfecting

the external body (European Commission, 2017) and increasing the formation of vitamin D3 to 80% in

the body, as well as self-isolation if already exposed to Covid-19 or have interacted directly with people

who are Covid-19 positive, including applying the proper manners for coughing and sneezing. Continue

to loudly spread this health protocol propaganda to everyone until it is truly done at any time all the time.

Once again, counter Covid-19 with self discipline strictly based on health protocols and

economically active as usual. Covid-19 need not be feared, but it must be watched out. People ican icatch

iCOVID-19 ifrom iothers iwho ihave ithe ivirus. iThe idisease ican ispread ifrom iperson ito iperson

ithrough ismall idroplets ifrom ithe inose ior imouth iwhich iare ispread iwhen ia iperson iwith iCOVID-

19 icoughs ior iexhales. iThese idroplets iland ion iobjects iand isurfaces iaround ithe iperson. iOther

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ipeople ithen icatch iCOVID-19 iby itouching ithese iobjects ior isurfaces, ithen itouching itheir ieyes,

inose ior imouth. iPeople ican ialso icatch iCOVID-19 iif ithey ibreathe iin idroplets ifrom ia iperson

iwith iCOVID-19 iwho icoughs iout ior iexhales idroplets. iThis iis iwhy iit iis iimportant ito istay imore

ithan i1 imeter i(3 ifeet) iaway ifrom ia iperson iwho iis isick. i(World iHealth iOrganization, i2020).

Covid-19 will not be transmitted without going through a droplet, so all must be disciplined with

these two basic things: First, do not let yourself or others carelessly sneeze, cough or talk too excited to

"spout" a splash of liquid from the mouth; Second, do not let the hands touch any part of the face directly

before making sure the hands are free of Covid-19 droplets by washing hands frequently. These droplets

are the source of the Covid-19 disaster. The catastrophic spread of the plague is only started with the two

very basic things: from droplets and/or contaminated hands with Covid-19 droplets.

It is a mistake to think of the Corona virus as not heat-resistant in tropical climates in areas

crossed by the equator even though there is empirical evidence about it being carried out by several

leading universities in the country. This is because: First, empirical evidence like that has been

misinterpreted. Second, the Corona virus has a degree of heat susceptibility starting at a minimum

temperature of 56 degrees Celsius. So, the correct interpretation is not related to the hot weather, but the

intensity of ultraviolet (UV) rays that affect the area around the equator is clearly much higher than the

subtropical region which has 4 seasons. And, of course, the intensity of UV rays will be higher in the dry

season in the tropics or summer in the 4 seasons compared to the rainy season or in winter.

This is to explain why influenza viruses more often attack when entering rainy season or winter,

compared to the dry season or summer. Flu is the name commonly used to describe symptoms of the

influenza virus, which is an air-borne infectious viral disease. Whilst you can catch flu at any time of

year, it is more common in winter. (Alexandra Phelan, 2015). UV light is a natural disinfectant to kill

microorganisms, including viruses and bacteria (European Commission, 2017). This understanding also

has the consequence that spraying disinfectants during the day in open places easily exposed to the sun

feels in vain, because the logic of bacteria or viruses will not last long amid the onslaught of ultraviolet

rays from the sun.

So, logically during the day if you remain disciplined in applying health protocols, people around

the equator like Indonesia will be far safer from the Corona virus disorders, and the same with other

chronic respiratory diseases, fatal Covid-19 infection happens when attacking the lower respiratory tract

(lungs or alveoli of the lungs / lower respiratory end), causing acute pneumonia.

Although medical facilities do not yet have anti-virus and Covid-19 drugs, they should use the

Supporting System strategy implemented by Vietnam that has succeeded 100% in healing Covid-19

patients without death. First, the doctors are required to treat the symptoms, like fever. Second, the

patients are placed on a strict, nutritious diet. The third step, according to Nguyen, is to closely monitor

the oxygen saturation level in the blood of the patients (Sen Nguyen, 2020).

Basically, this strategy is carried out by maintaining the strength of the immune system and

endurance of the patient to fight the virus attack, namely by keeping the body fit and when experiencing

fever symptoms, fever is immediately treated with medical intervention, then supported by a nutritious

diet and continue to monitor the saturation levels of patient's blood to ensure enough oxygen in the blood.

Medical action like this clearly focus on the basic principle of maintaining endurance in responding to

potentially damaging attacks, so that the immune system in the body is able to work optimally against

viruses because it is supported by a fit body condition (such as overcoming fever to avoid complications).

Some groups of patients are more at risk from complications associated with flu than others They include

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the elderly, younger children, pregnant women, patients with chronic health issues such as heart or kidney

disease, and those with breathing problems such as COPD or asthma (Alexandra Phelan, 2015 ), adequate

nutritional and oxygen intake as a source of intracellular combustion energy for cell regeneration and self

defense, so as to be able to maintain all organ systems working optimally to support the body's

physiological performance, including against macrophage cells that are in the forefront of eradicating

pathogenic microorganisms .

To help delay medical treatment, when experiencing symptoms of Covid-19 at home that are not

or have not yet been put into an emergency, there is no need to worry, it is enough to take basic principles

based on the actions implemented in Vietnam, where flu symptoms are treated as if treating the flu with

medicines containing paracetamol, continue to strengthen the immune system by consuming nutritiously

balanced food, regular exercise, sunbathing outside the hours 10am to 4pm. The sun’s UV rays are the

strongest between these hours. To the extent possible, limit exposure to the sun during these hours (World

Health Organization, 2009), and even add to the first aid kit at home, with herbal medicines, the World

Health Organization (2010). The Indonesian Ministry of Health also recognizes the existence of herbs in

helping modern medicine, which is proven to be able to help expedite the airway in the lungs, before

finally getting treatment from the nearest medical installation, if the symptoms of shortness of breath

don't end.

There have been many herbal medicines that have been proven in the community to be able to

overcome shortness of breath in a short time. There are many shortness of breath herbal medicines that

have proven to be very effective, and even contain antiviral and anti-bacterial natural chemical

ingredients that are actually very strong with proven efficacy through various health journals, such as

ginseng, turmeric, red ginger, noni (mengkudu) juice, soursop (sirsat) leaf extract, and others.

Therefore the recovery of patients infected with Corona should be improved. Do not let an

incident in an Indonesian hospital in which only because of shortness of breath eventually the patient

died. Many herbal medicines can overcome shortness of breath quickly by working to relieve

inflammation of the pulmonary alveoli that blocks the airway. Pneumonitis occurs when an irritating

substance causes the tiny air sacs (alveoli) in your lungs to become inflamed. This inflammation makes it

difficult for oxygen to pass through the alveoli into the bloodstream (Mayo Clinics, 2018), relaxing the

lung channels and pulmonary blood vessels. Inflammation of the bronchioles develops and causes smooth

muscles in the lung tissue to contract (SPASM), further obstructing airflow. Inflammation also causes

swelling of the airway passages and secretions in them, further limiting airflow ”(MSD Manual, 2007).

More often than not, the test solves the mystery of unexplained breathlessness. Up to a quarter of

cases are due to pulmonary hypertension, which occurs when the arteries serving the lungs become stiff

and thick (Havard Health Publishing, 2019) or generally relieve chronic obstruction lung symptoms

(COPD) which have some chronic symptoms similar to acute pneumonia, such as ginseng (Charlie C Xue

et al., 2011; Lei Wu et al., 2014; Xuedong An et al., 2011) or curcumin / turmeric (Matthew C. Fadus et

al, 2011; Pranay Wal et al, 2019, Susan J. Hewlings et al, 2017) or even have anti-viral or anti-bacterial

pathogenic abilities in the respiratory tract such as ginseng (Hamid Iqbal, 2000), Noni juice (P. Selvam et

al, 2009; Rivera A. et al, 2011) Mangosteen skin extract (FA Bernal et al, 2015; BH Mithun Pai et al,

2016) and Sirsat leaf extract (Conso Lacion Ragasa, 2010; Silva Beltrán Norma Patricia et al, 2019),

while to overcome the virus in the upper respiratory tract (colds) can consume ginger (Chang JS et al,

2013; Abimbola Pius Okiki et al, 2015) or even red ginger (Kepmenkes RI, 2017).

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Now is the time to rise from unfavorable economic conditions, which should not even have

happened, by remaining vigilant, by starting to cultivate to be disciplined and to strictly implement the

health protocols that the government recommends to do for activities. Then the economy should be

running as it should, or at least the economy of MSMEs can still be the foundation to sustain everyday

life naturally.

Conclusion and recommendations

1. Conclusion

a) The impact of several endemics / pandemics before Covid-19 (Influenza 1918, Asian Flu 1957-

1958, HIV/AIDS, Ebola, and SARS) was evident globally both from a macroeconomic and / or

microeconomic perspective;

b) The development of Covid-19 transmission which caused excessive fear had a significant effect

on the movement of the MSMEs economy in East Java which caused a decrease in the intensity

of consumer buying behavior;

c) Rational and proportional understanding of the ways and threats of Covid-19 transmission from

person to person and recovery methods when dealing with the symptoms of Covid-19, are

expected to reduce or even eliminate excessive worries or fears and be replaced with high

vigilance by following strict and disciplined health and economic protocols recommended by the

government, so that the economic movement is not too greatly affected and can still support the

lives of citizens naturally.

2. Recommendations

a) The current experience of handling Covid-19 should be an important ingredient in setting

rigorous standard procedures for mitigating disasters caused by epidemics/pandemics that may be

repeated, continue to exist and will occur in the future, both in order to anticipate or overcome the

spread of contagious disease with the potential to cause health disasters;

b) Policy makers are expected to be able to put policies at the right time, when to put portfolio

considerations between economic and/or health interests simultaneously or one of them (partial)

for a while, so that the problem of epidemic/pandemic threats can be quickly and appropriately

resolved by minimizing its impact on health and at the same time as much as possible for the

economy as a whole. As a case in point, anticipation of closing access to foreign sources of

epidemics/pandemics should be done early, so that the economic impact is only localized to

certain economic sectors, while preventing transmission from abroad is easier to control;

c) Over time, ongoing evaluation is needed to continually develop a better method of dealing with

the threat of the Covid-19 pandemy to further minimize health impacts as well as unfavorable

economic impacts, including in efforts to accelerate the end of the pandemy;

d) Business actors are expected to creatively develop product/service sales services by considering

and implementing health protocol procedures in a disciplined and rigorous manner, so as to

provide safety guarantees and minimize excessive fear of the threat of Covid-19 transmission

from consumers for conducting economic transactions;

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e) Economic actors including producers and consumers are expected to learn from time to time to be

able to develop rational and proportional attitudes and behaviors in the face of

epidemic/pandemic threats, so as not to have an excessive impact on the economy.

f) Issuance of rules and enforcement of rules by prohibiting economic activities to avoid Covid-19

transmission from person to person is not an appropriate, wise and proportionate action when

understanding how the real threats of Covid-19 transmission and recovery methods. Policy

makers and law enforcement should focus more on obedience of the perpetrators to discipline and

strictly following health protocols in conducting all economic activities and transactions, such as

keeping distance by arranging seats appropriately, providing a place to wash hands, regulate

consumer queues, use masks for business owners and servants, prioritizing delivery / take-home

service, and so on.

g) It is important to anticipate the excessive impact on the economy from the threat of health

epidemics/pandemics. It is for stakeholders and policy makers to disseminate quickly, accurately,

proportionally about the ways and threats of epidemics/pandemics, and recovery methods, to

prevent irrational economic behaviors, so as to be able to establish effective health protocols

without causing a large impact on the economy;

h) Future research is expected to focus more on developing ways and strategies of the business

community, stakeholders and policy makers in building economic systems (macroeconomic

and/or microeconomic) that are not vulnerable and more resistant to any epidemic/pandemic

threats, based on empirical data on epidemic events/previous pandemics, both through the

development and application of appropriate technology, economic transaction methods including

procedures and methods at the time of the epidemic / pandemic, and the level of effectiveness of

the mitigation of health disasters themselves.

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