the immigration debate. revised class schedule may 28: the immigration debate may 30: the ebullience...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE
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REVISED CLASS SCHEDULE
May 28: The Immigration Debate
May 30: The Ebullience of Brazil
June 04: The Latino Experience in America
June 06: Review and Study Guide
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GUEST SPEAKER MAY 30
“The Ebullience of Brazil”
Simeon Nichter (UCSD Political Science) Ph.D. UC Berkeley Fellowships at Stanford, Harvard, and Center for
Global Development (Washington DC) Research: political voice of the poor, especially in
Latin America (and Brazil)
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The Immigration Debate: Patterns and Policies
THE NUMBERS GAME(S)FlowsStocksProportionsCosts and benefitsRates of assimilation
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Emotional Issues and Political Debates
Multiculturalism vs. melting potsDiversity vs. traditionFairness vs. efficiency
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Numerical Dimensions
• ~11 million illegal immigrants in U.S.• 55-60% from Mexico• 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now in U.S.• U.S.-Mexican wage ratio ~ 8:1 or 10:1
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Undocumented Immigrants in the United States
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Mexican-Origin Population in United States, 1900-2003
Mx-born (9.9)
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1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0° 8 6°1 14 °
3 0°
2 6°
2 2°
1 8°
E s t a d o s U n i d o s d e A m é r i c a
G o l f o d e M é x i c o
T ró p i c o d e C án ce r
B e l ic e
E sc a l a 1 :1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
O c é a n o P a c í fi c o G u a te m a la
1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0°1 14 °
3 0°
2 6°
2 2°
1 8°
Go l f o d e C a l i f o r n i a
(Ma r d e C o r t é s )
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 k m
Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants
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Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants
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Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003
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Border Patrol Agents
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Effects of Border Enforcement
1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona)2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers)3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent
stays)4. More women and families5. Increased loss of life
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Deaths at the Border
2001 = 528
2002 = 470
2003 = 478
2004 = 460
2005 > 500
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Migration and the Global Economic Crisis
Context: joblessness everywhereNew entries down (not due to border enforcement, since
95% of migrants without papers get through)Return migration growing (despite concern in Mexico
about major increase)Net migration from Mexico ~ zeroWithin USA, unemployment among Latino men >
Anglo men
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The Range of Policy Choice: Legal Migration
Revise legal quotasRevise criteria for entry
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Strategies for restriction: Building fences Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper) Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187) Punishing employers
Strategies for opening: Augmenting quotas Guest-worker programs Eliminating barriers
Strategies for reduction: Targeting economic development Circulating information Additional steps?
The Range of Policy Choice: Illegal Migration
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Initiatives on Migration
Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001)
Phase 2: Focus on Security and Border Fortification
Phase 3: The Second Bush Term • Temporary amnesty for those here and employed • Guest-worker program• Eventual path to citizenship
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OBAMA AND THE “GANG OF EIGHT”
Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth)
Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas
Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000
Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers
Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015
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A HIGHLY EDUCATED GUESS
CIR will pass in Senate with as many as 70 votes
It will fail in the House by about 7 votes
Question: What might change the odds in the House?
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What Would You Do?