the humboldt county economy in 2009 by erick eschker presented to eureka old town rotary club...
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The Humboldt County Economy in 2009
By Erick Eschker
Presented to Eureka Old Town
Rotary Club
December 2, 2008
The Humboldt County Economy in 2009
By Erick Eschker
Department of Economics
Humboldt State University
Humboldt Economic Index
www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum
Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors
Six Sectors and Composite
• Energy
• Lumber-based manufacturing
• Employment
• Hospitality
• Retail
• Housing
• Composite
Gas Prices are down, and will stay lower as the Recession continues
County Unemployment Rates 3rd highest since Jan. 1994
Employment has started to fall
• Biggest drops in Construction and Financial Services (included real estate agents and lenders)
Leading Indicators:Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Help Wanted
Housing Sales
Housing Prices
Foreclosures
• Foreclosures in Humboldt County have gone from record lows to record highs
How far does Housing have to fall?
Inflation Adjusted Prices slowly falling
Price to Rent ratio falling
Overall Economic Activity is down this year
National News
• Recession officially started December, 2007
• Exports slowing due to recessions abroad
• Record or near record lows on US Treasury Bonds (flight to safety)
• Credit Crunch (credit cards and other lending)
State News
• Budget Crisis
• $11.2bil Deficit
• Governor calls for decreased spending on CSU, CalWorks, Medical and increased employer unemployment contributions
Uncertainty for Humboldt County
• How bad will national recession be?
• When will credit markets stabilize?
• Effect of past and future Bailouts/Stimulus packages
• Will state employment be cut significantly?
The Humboldt County Economy in 2009
By Erick Eschker
Department of Economics
Humboldt State University
Humboldt Economic Index
www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum