the human and economic consequences of kenya's 2007 post...

The Human and Economic Consequencesof Kenya's 2007 Post-Election Violence

Pascaline Dupas Jonathan RobinsonStanford UC Santa Cruz

Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012

Kenya's political history

I 1895-1963: British Rule

I 1964: Presidential Representative Republic

I De facto one-party state until 1991

I Party KANU in power from 1963 to 2002

I Jomo Kenyatta (15 years)I Daniel Arap Moi (24 years)

I 2002: Mwai Kibaki (Rainbow coalition) elected president

I Election judged free and fair by most observers


Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis

I Intense campaigning

I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)

I Election held on December 27, 2007

I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won

I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007

I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency

I 2 months of civil con�ict

I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed

I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA

CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC

CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

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SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE

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BURUNDI

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GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA

SIERRA LEONEGHANA

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A L G E R I A

S U D A N

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GREECE

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boundary

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SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

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REP. OF

OF THE CONGODEM. REP.

CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

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LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger

I n d i a n O c e a n

MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis

PortLouisAntananarivo

MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India

(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)

Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca

Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria

Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg

Port ElizabethCape Town

Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan

YamoussoukroMonrovia

Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal

(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)

(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)

N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T

D E S E R TK A L A H A R I

0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000

Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection

800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y

Kenya, 2007


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y

Kenya, 2007

Guinea, 2008

Zimbabwe, 2008


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y

Kenya, 2007

Madagascar, 2009

Guinea, 2008

Zimbabwe, 2008


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y

Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010

Madagascar, 2009

Guinea, 2008

Zimbabwe, 2008


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y


Madagascar, 2009

Guinea, 2008

Zimbabwe, 2008

Nigeria, 2011


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y


Madagascar, 2009

Guinea, 2008

Mali, 2012

Zimbabwe, 2008

Nigeria, 2011


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y


Madagascar, 2009

Guinea, 2008

Mali, 2012

Zimbabwe, 2008

Senegal, 2012

Zambia, 2011

Ghana, 2008

Nigeria, 2011


MALICHAD

FASO

IRAN

TOGO

SOUTH

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

TANZANIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

ARABIA

SAUDI

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA


CAPE VERDE

THE GAMBIA

SENEGAL

NIGERIA


GABON

TURKEYSPAIN

CAMEROON

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

SOMALIA


SIERRA LEONEGHANA

BENIN

BURKINA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CÔTED'IVOIRE

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

L I B Y A

N I G E R

FRANCE

GERMANY POLAND

ITALY

GREECE

UKRAINE

U.K.IRE.RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

SYRIA

UZBEKISTANROM.

BELARUS

AZER.

LEB.

QATAR

KUWAITJORDAN

ISRAEL

CYPRUS

U.A.E

MAURIT

WesternSahara

ALB.

AUS.

TUNISIAMALTA

ZIMBABWE

COMOROS

BULG.

SLO.CRO.

SER.

MONT.

MACE.

HUNG.

CZ. REP.SLOV.

NETH.

BEL. LUX.

SWITZ.MOL.

BOS. &HER.AND.

ARM.

GEO.

IRAQ

BAHR.

NAMIBIA

YEMEN

OMAN

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

(FRANCE)

ANGOLA(Cabinda)

(YEMEN)

Sicily

LIBERIA

boundary

Socotra

SEYCHELLES

PORTUGAL

(PORTUGAL)

(PORTUGAL)

(SPAIN)

Admin.

(EQUA. GUI.)

AFG

Prov.Admin.Line

Sardinia

Corsica

REP. OF


CONGOTHE

KAZAKHSTAN

(St. Helena)

St. Helena(U.K.)

Ascension

St. Helena

AFRICA

(St. Helena)

Strait of Gibraltar

O c e a n

A t l a n t i c

N o r t h

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea

Sea ofAzov

Danube

Nile

Nile

Red

Sea

Volga

Persian

S o u t h

A t l a n t i c

O c e a n

Gulf of Guinea

ArabianSea

I n d i a n

O c e a n

Gulf ofAden

LakeVictoria

NyasaLake

TanganyikaLake

BlueNile

Whi

teN

ile

Congo

BenueVolta

Niger


MozambiqueChannel

Zambezi

Orange

AralSea

CaspianSea

Gulf

Equator

40 20 0 20 40 60

Tropic of Cancer

40

20 2

0

2

Tropic of Capricorn

20

Jerusalem

Berlin Warsaw

Minsk

KyivPrague

AmsterdamLondon

Dublin

Brussels

ViennaBudapest

Bratislava

LjubljanaZagreb

Belgrade

Chisinau

Bucharest

Sofia

Skopje

Sarajevo

Athens

Valletta

TunisAlgiers

TripoliCairo

Beirut

Nicosia

Damascus

AmmanBaghdad

Riyadh

Bern

Rabat

Tashkent

AshgabatBaku

Doha Mus

Manama

Kuwait

SanaaAsmara

AbuDhabi

Djibouti

Mogadishu

Nairobi

AbabaAddis

N'Djamena

Bangui

Kinshasa

YaoundéMalabo

Lomé

São Tomé

Brazzaville

Libreville

Niamey

Abuja

NovoPorto-

Victoria

Moroni

St. Denis


MaputoPretoria

Maseru

Mbabane

Gaborone

Windhoek

Luanda

Lusaka

Harare

Dar esSalaam

Laayoune(El Aaiún)

Nouakchott

PraiaDakar

BanjulBamako

BissauOuagadougou

Conakry

Freetown

Accra

Island

Glorioso Islands

Mayotte

Bassasda India


Juan de Nova Island

Tromelin Isla

OranConstantine

FèsCasablanca


Kano

OgbomosoIbadan

Lagos

Douala

Pointe-Noire

Kisangani

Mbuji-Mayi

Lubumbashi

Bukavu

Kitwe

Durban

Johannesburg


Beira

Mombasa

Hargeysa

Omdurman

Moundou

LubangoNamibe

Walvis Bay

Medina

MeccaJiddah

PortSudan

AswanAl Jawf

Tombouctou

Blantyre

Naples

Milan

Mashhad

Esfahan

Ankara

AdanaIzmir

Istanbul

.

Tehran

Odesa

Rostov

Lisbon

RomeBarcelona

Marseille

-

Tabriz

Abidjan


Ponta

Funchal

Las Palmas

DelgadaYerevan

Aleppo

Shiraz

DodomaZanzibar

Al Jizah

AZORES

MADEIRA ISLANDS

CANARY ISLANDS

Nouadhibou

Mahajanga

Toamasina

'Abbas-

Juba

Zinder

Agadez

Annobón

Tbilisi

ReunionEuropa

Paris

Madrid

Khartoum

Kampala

Kigali

Bujumbura

Lilongwe

Kananga

TiranaPodgorica

Bandar

de NacalaCidade

-

-

-

-

-¸

-

S A H A R A

Mt. Kilimanjaro

Lac'Assal



N A

M I B

D E

S E

R T


0

0

800 Kilometers

Scale 1:51,400,000


800 Miles

C O N G O

B A S I N G R

E A

T

R

I F

T

V

A L L

E Y


Madagascar, 2009

Guinea, 2008

Mali, 2012

Zimbabwe, 2008

Nigeria, 2011


Kenya's Post-Election Violence

Mombasa

EmbuNarok

Kisumu

Lodwar

Eldoret

KitaleBaringo

Kisii

Kakamega

KituiMachakos

GarissaSotik

Malindi

NakuruNyeri

Moyale

Mt. KenyaChuka

WESTERN

NAIROBI

NYANZA

COAST

RIFT VALLEYEASTERN

NORTHEASTERN

Mt. KenyaCENTRAL

Mombasa

Embu

NairobiNarok

Kisumu

Lodwar

Eldoret

KitaleBaringo

Kisii

Kakamega

KituiMachakos

GarissaSotik

Malindi

NakuruNyeri

Moyale

Chuka

KEY

Map 1: The main theatres of conflict

Theatres of violence


Our Study Sample: Not Directly A�ected

Mombasa

EmbuNarok

Kisumu

Lodwar

Eldoret

KitaleBaringo

Kisii

Kakamega

KituiMachakos

GarissaSotik

Malindi

NakuruNyeri

Moyale

Mt. KenyaChuka

WESTERN

NAIROBI

NYANZA

COAST

RIFT VALLEYEASTERN

NORTHEASTERN

Mt. KenyaCENTRAL

Mombasa

Embu

NairobiNarok

Kisumu

Lodwar

Eldoret

KitaleBaringo

Kisii

Kakamega

KituiMachakos

GarissaSotik

Malindi

NakuruNyeri

Moyale

Chuka

KEY

Map 1: The main theatres of conflict

Theatres of violence


Impacts on Economic Activity

100

105

110

115

120

125

nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar

Milk (250ml) Bar of Soap 50 Ksh Phone CardCooking Oil Sugar (1kg) Coke (300ml)

Retail Prices (Normalized)


Our Sample

I 3 distinct samples that we had been following for several years forvarious research projects:

1. Small-scale market and street vendors

I Very poor entrepreneursI Average daily expend ∼$1.5 per dayI Average daily investment ∼ $5 per day

2. Shopkeepers

I �Middle class�I Average daily expend ∼$6 per dayI Pro�ts closer to $10 per day

3. Women who supply transactional sex

I Average daily expenditures ∼$5 per dayI Typically get income from both transactional sex and other activity


Data

I Post-election Survey in late March 2008

I Detailed module on sexual behavior for sample of women who supplytransactional sex


Impacts on Income

400

600

800

1000


Total Income 95% CI

Market Vendors

050

0010

000


Total Income 95% CI

Shopkeepers

050

010

0015

00

050

010

00

nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar

Income from Sex Work 95% CI

Other Income (right axis)

Sex WorkersDupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012

Impacts on Food Consumption

0.2

.4

.51

1.5


Market Vendors

0.1

.2

.51

1.5

2


Shopkeepers

0.2

.4.6

02


# Days HH had Meat for Dinner 95% CI

# Days HH Skipped Lunch (right axis) 95% CI

Sex Workers

0.2

.4

.51

1.5


Market Vendors

0.1

.2

.51

1.5

2


Shopkeepers

0.2

.4.6

02


# Days HH had Meat for Dinner 95% CI

# Days HH Skipped Lunch (right axis) 95% CI

Sex Workers


Impacts on women who supply transactional sex?


Impacts on women who supply transactional sex

400

600

800

1000


Total Income 95% CI

Market Vendors

050

0010

000


Total Income 95% CI

Shopkeepers

050

010

0015

00

050

010

00


Income from Sex Work 95% CI

Other Income (right axis)

Sex Workers


Impacts on women who supply sex

350

400

450

600

700

800

nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb

Market Vendors

900

950

1000

1050

2000

2500

3000

nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb

Shopkeepers

400

500

600

700

1000

2000

3000

nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb

Total Expenditures 95% CI

Food Expenditures (right axis)

Sex Workers


Risk-taking among women who supply sex

0.2

.4.6

.81


Average 95% CI

Times Unprotected Vaginal Sex

.4.6

.81


Average 95% CI

# Unprotected Vaginal / # Clients


Risk-taking among women who supply sex

0.0

5.1

.15

.2.2

5


Average 95% CI

Times Unprotected Anal Sex

-.05

0.0

5.1

.15

.2


Average 95% CI

# Unprotected Anal / # Clients


Implications for HIV/AIDS

I Mortality rate ∼13% among our sample of sex workers, suggestinghigh prevalence of HIV

I Possibly hightened transmission of HIV to clientsI Possibly hightened risk for women not yet infected

I We only see the tip of the iceberg...

I Crisis could have led to entry into transactional sex, both during andafter violence

I Possibly violence against women in violence areas


Conclusion

I First order consequences of crisis: ∼1,200 deaths and displacement of500,000 or more people

I Even in areas not directly a�ected by ethnic clashes / violence, thepost-election crisis had large e�ects:

I on prices, income and food consumptionI �hidden� channel by which political unrest a�ects health: increase in

risky behavior in transactional sex market

I How do we make sure this does not happen again in next election(March 2013)?


the human and economic consequences of kenya's 2007 post...

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