Seminario Global de Formación Prospectiva El Estado

del Arte en los Estudios del Futuro

Videoconferencias 2013April 26

Faculty of Political and Social Sciences National Autonomous University of Mexico

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Think Tanks and Think Tanks and FuturesFutures

Think Tanks and Think Tanks and FuturesFutures

Vahid V. MotlaghVahid V. MotlaghVahid V. MotlaghVahid V. Motlagh

Contents

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Relationship between Think Tanks and FuturistsRelationship between Think Tanks and Futurists

Essential Attributes of Futurists Essential Attributes of Futurists

Building a Wisdom HouseBuilding a Wisdom House

Some questions

1 Relationship between think tanks and futuristsRelationship between think tanks and futurists

A professional futurist emerges from a thinktank or end up there?

Which term is more broader in terms of coverage: a place where futurists work or a think tank?

Futurists emerge from think tanks?A think tank is a network of scholars committed to

effective and systemic policy analysis both for the current issues and the long term challenges

Institutes that are instrumental in launching aspiring futurists

They help graduate students (Master and PhD) better select a topic and complete their thesis projects

They help scholars publish their first book

Futurists emerge from think tanks?They are incubators for the next social innovators and

provide global landscape for researchers. They offer sabbaticals and areas of concentrated learning opportunities, introducing/creating new professional networks

Scholars and activists may return to think tanks to find institutional home

Most think tanks are ideologically-affiliated

They convene and coordinate major campaigns

They holds conferences, do research, publish a blog, do behind-closed-doors lobbying work

Futurists emerge from think tanks?

Not all people who work in think tanks are futurists

High profile former civil servants may join think tanks as credible sources of deep practical insight

Based on the pressing current issues in the society like job creation, economic growth, elections, etc. chances to do actual futures work maybe limited in some think tanks

The ideas of professional futurists are useful in times of dramatic change

Futurists emerge from think tanks?

A typical scholar or analyst at a think tank does not necessarily apply the Futures Research Methodology while addressing the future

But professional futurists often use known methods while addressing the alternative futures and the prospect of change

RAND was the home of Herman Kahn, perhaps the best-known futurist of his time

Futurists emerge from think tanks?

Think tanks (or the people in them) are in the knowledge industry, just as futurists are.  But their scope can be quite broad, from pure analysis, like RAND, to advocacy, like CAF

An ideal think tank is the most perfect environment for futurists

All think tanks are financed by rich funders, and those funders set the priorities

Futurists emerge from think tanks?

If there is much complexity and uncertainty involved, call professional futurists in to facilitate some strategic conversation and multiple scenarios

Typical scholars are much focused on their discipline or field of expertise and cannot discuss strategic futures or facilitate “collaboration” among scholars from different disciplines

The approach of futurists broadens and 'stress-tests' their thinking, augments regular desk research and analysis, and adds another dimension to the output

Futurists emerge from think tanks?

Futurists should have and encourage others to adopt an unshakable belief in the possibility of a better world

Typical scholars usually deal with the outcome of trends and actions and focus on “risky prospects” i.e. probable worlds yet professional futurists often deal with the images and events, technically speaking, on “uncertain prospects’’, i.e. possible worlds ahead

It is reported that there are about 4,500 think tanks in the world. 

About 30 of them are considered Futures oriented think tanks.

Futurists emerge from think tanks?

“Futurists bring a specific set of skills for understanding change, describing long-term alternative futures and encourage people to envision and act on their preferred future.  Many think tanks do those things as well but they often do more in issue and policy analysis and advocacy that goes beyond what professional futurists do.  Some can be quite present-oriented, in fact, focusing on more near-term futures than most futurists would.”

---- Dr. Peter C. Bishop (2012)

Contents

2 Essential Attributes of Futurists Essential Attributes of Futurists

Essential Attributes of Futurists

It may appear that being a university graduate is both necessary and sufficient for the purpose of becoming or training an influencing futurist. But my own observations only partly support such an argument. Formal education and the usual academic skills even though necessary are not sufficient. Therefore, from a human resource perspective people who want to become able futurists and people who want to hire them need to pay attention to some essential characteristics

1. They think the unthinkable

Sometimes when you tell some experts or analysts that we want to address a big and unusual issue their answer is simply a big no, they say that is impossible to address. These people are used to a mental model that is too concentrated on probable futures and not accommodate possible futures sufficiently. The circle of possible futures, if existing in this mental model at all, is too small.

2. They have T-shaped knowledge

Some scholars overly respect the order of the things, guard the boundaries set in the human knowledge enterprise, and recommend to others not to look or go beyond their cherished department

If an economist is shown the proceedings of the latest conference of biology or psychology and is not even willing to take a look at the abstracts you would rather recommend him or her to work in an institution that is assessing the present or perceiving the past and not necessarily the futures

2. They have T-shaped knowledge

Able futurists should throw some little anchors in the great ocean of human knowledge in addition to the big anchor which is their field of graduation, expertise, or profession

T-shaped persons: a metaphor used in job recruitment to describe the abilities of persons in the workforce. The vertical bar on the T represents the depth of related skills and expertise in a single field, whereas the horizontal bar is the ability to collaborate across disciplines with experts in other areas and to apply knowledge in areas of expertise other than one's own.

3. They are stars in communication

Some people are used to writing, some others to lecturing. Some analysts can only share their points through the output of a software application and there are instances that there is a great preference for formulae and figures among futurists. However, an able futurist should be adaptable and flexible as per the communication channel

If it is felt that the audience (e.g. senior policymakers and planners) cannot use the written documents, a futurist should be able to use the language of figures, software outputs, or even a simple impressive graphic picture. He or she may not expect that others should adapt themselves to his or her preferred communication channel but to the contrary the aim is to share and transmit the futures idea by any available and possible tool or mode

4. They are members in diverse networks

In our network society that is growing rapidly day by day it will be a source of disgrace and embarrassment that people who want to explore the new horizons are only connected to a closed circle of old friends and colleagues who are, most likely, residents of the same region

To become global citizens and to proudly step into the planetary era we need to diversify our mental models and thus have to become multilingual.

A target: you cannot become a global person unless have a good command of at least four languages and when forty percent of your fellows are non-country men and women.

Contents

3 Building a Wisdom HouseBuilding a Wisdom House

Building a Wisdom House

Wisdom and heightened future consciousness are almost identical

Wisdom brings ethics to bear on the future; it has a holistic quality, reflecting a synergy of heart and mind (we feel about the future as much as we think about it); and it is a personal capacity that is nonetheless applied not only to the betterment of one's own future and but to the betterment of the future of others as well.

Building a Wisdom House You may qualify to enter a wisdom house if and only

if you remain committed to a set of character virtues Self-responsibility (necessary to escape perceived

helplessness about the future); Discipline and commitment (necessary to combat

chaos and relativism); Transcendence (necessary to care about the future of

humanity and not only one’s ego); Courage (necessary to face uncertainties and make

decisions); Hope and optimism (necessary to avoid depression); Love (necessary to recognize the interdependence of

all entities in reality); Temperance/Balance (necessary to synthesize

analytical skills with intuition and insight); Wisdom (necessary to make intelligent and informed

ethical decisions about the future).

Wise Cyborgs The “wise cyborg,” is the best possible update in the

early 21st century of who will qualify to be Nietzsche’s Übermensch in the future

A wise cyborg, guided by the ideals of wisdom, will draw his or her extraordinary and potentially limitless power from “intellectual, informational, and communicational capacities of computer technologies”

Wise Cyborgs

If ordinary persons in the future insert nanobots inside their brains that run advances software and stay connected to the Internet all the time then will they turn into “all-knowing people” at least as far as knowledge pertains to the physical systems. Can they for instance become able to toss a pen in a street and cause a major chain disaster in a big city by just applying their leveraged deep insight into all nonlinear differential equations that govern our chaotic and complex systems?

Wise Cyborgs

Machines are becoming able to refine and even challenge our fundamental ontology. We see or better to say want to impose taxonomies and hierarchies when there should be none. Fortunately machines objectively and automatically can correct us. We think hard and categorize things deterministically. Machines can think soft and categorize things probabilistically. Humans are skillful in dealing with linear methods. Machines can also easily absorb nonlinear ones

Will access to nano machines be an essential part of future quality of life,if yes, how and in what ways? Will it be as crucial as access to oxygenand water and food, or something like a private vehicle, or awell-equipped expensive hospital?

Acknowledgement I am grateful to distinguished members of the World

Futures Studies Federation, Association of Professional Futurists, and Foresight Network for sharing their comments, insights, and resources while preparing this presentation.

Special thanks to: Ms. Sara Robinson, Campaign for America's Future Ms. Tanja Hichert, South Africa Institute for

International Affairs Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston Mr. Andrew Curry, The Futures Company Ms. Natalie Dian, FramtidsbyggetTM

Mr. JR Dreier, DreierStrat.com

Further Reading1. Motlagh, Vahid V. (2013) The futures meme: A new

generation perspective, Futures, Volume 45, Pages S62–S72

2. Motlagh, Vahid V. (2012) Wisdom and Futures Studies, Journal of Futures Studies, Volume 16, Issue 3, pages 118-120

3. The Henley Centre (2001) Best Practice for Strategic Futures Work, A report for the Performance and Innovation Unit, the UK Cabinet Office

4. McGann, James (2002) Think Tanks and the Transnationalization of Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy Research Institute

5. Abelson, Donald E. (2002) Do Think Tanks Matter? Assessing the Impact of Public Policy Institutes, Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press

6. Kapoor R., Gidley J. (2010) Global Mindset Change, Futures, Volume 42, Issue 10, Pages 1035-1230

7. OECD, list of futures-oriented think tanks

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Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way

they are. Bertolt Brecht

Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way

they are. Bertolt Brecht