the hive think tank: talk by mohandas pai - india at 2030, how tech entrepreneurship will create a...
TRANSCRIPT
INDIA AT 2030 - HOW TECH ENTREPRENEURSHIP WILL CREATE A $10 TRILLION ECONOMYT V MOHANDAS PAI
India is ready to retake its place as a top 3 economy in the world by 2030.“
INDIA AT A GLANCE
INDIA – KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 VS. 199125 YEARS’ SNAPSHOT POST-LIBERALISATION
INDIA’S GDP GROWTH % - LAST 10 YEARS
REGAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM
Expected GDP growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.5%
INDIA – GDP PROJECTIONS
India needs to grow at 8% CAGR to be a $10 Tril economy by 2035China’s GDP grew at an average of 9.9% p.a. from 1979 to 2011
THE WORLD IS CHANGING
INDIA & CHINA AT A GLANCE - CHINA HAS GROWN FASTER
TRENDS IN INFLATION (CPI)
SPEND ON SUBSIDYFINALLY SEEMS TO BE GETTING UNDER
CONTROL
With strong reforms and the use of JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, and Mobile), subsidy leakage will be reduced
INDIA HAS A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE
WE HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION
We are NOT an aging country!
HIGHER EDUCATION (HE) INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIAGROWTH IS ABOUT PEOPLE, WE HAVE INCREASED ACCESS IN HE
WE HAVE ADEQUATE SAVINGS FOR INVESTMENT AND GROWTH
GDP BY SECTOR IN 2014 : INDIA VS CHINA
WE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT PATTERNS
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTINDIA IS SPENDING MUCH BELOW ITS NEED AND CHINA, WAY ABOVE
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTCHINA’S SPEND IS OVER TWICE THE RATE OF INDIA, ON A MUCH HIGHER GDP BASE IN THE LAST
20 YEARS
18
The Startup Ecosystem will help create a $10 Trillion GDP economy in India by 2030.“
S
3rd Largest startup
ecosystem in the World
19,400
startups
270% growth in 6 years
$80 Bil Value Created
INDIAN STARTUPS AT A GLANCE
Ind
ian
Star
tup
Ecos
yste
m3rd Largest Startup Ecosystem in the world + Fastest Growing
19,400 startups in India at present.
Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil funding in the first half of 2015 and $4.5 Bil in second half of 2015. Total investment in 10 years has crossed $50 Bil.
Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil across 815 deals in Q1, Q2 & Q3 in 2016, against $7.3 Bil that was invested across 639 deals during the same period in 2015
76.4% of startups that have raised funding in 2016 YTD are concentrated in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR-Delhi region.
NEW FLYWHEEL RAMPING UP
1998 - SW Services took
off
2015 - Startups take off
Result in 2016: - $175 Bil revenue- $110 Bil exports- 4.25 Mil People
Employed
10 year Projection: Fireflies lighting up the sky!- 100,000 Startups- Employment: 3.5
Mil - $500+ Bil in
Market Value - #2 after US- 30 Mil SMEs lifted
STARTUP LANDSCAPE BY CITY
19,400 Startups in India
Mostly concentrated in Bangalore (31.44%), Delhi (20%), Mumbai (13%) and Chennai (10%)
Bangalore strong in B2C
STARTUP VALUATIONS
B2C VALUATIONS
$9 bn
$6.5 bn
$5 bn$5 bn
$1 bn
STARTUP VALUATIONS
NASDAQ SEHK NSE BSE0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
22%
12%9% 8%
46%
16%13% 12%
Set to grow dramatically in coming years
No. of companies Market Cap
Tech
nolo
gy a
s a p
erce
ntag
e of
ove
rall
USE OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS
Startups look like?So what will the future of
AADHAAR – ZERO TO 1 BIL IN 5.5 YEARS
942M
600M
300M
100M
50M
THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIA STACK – BUILT ON JAM
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AEPS Aadhaar
Authentication
APB
Aadhaar eKyc
eSignUPI
Consent Architecture
Digilocker
GSTN
950 M
1005 M
196 M
Aadhaar
Mobile
JDY
2009
944 M
600 M
100 M
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, PMJDY, Aadhaar Web Sites
ACCELERATED BY REGULATORY INNOVATION
Source: News Reports
BANK LIBERALIZATION
19691980
1993
2001 2014
2015
+14+6
+10+2 +2
+2145 Years 14 Banks in 3 Months
Ushering in a new ERA of
DIFFERENTIATED BANKING
BANK NATIONALIZATION
PRESENCE-LESS LAYER Aadhaar AuthenticationUnique digital biometric identity with
open access of nearly a Billion users
CONSENT LAYER Open Personal Data StoreProvides a modern privacy data sharing framework
PAPERLESS LAYERAadhaar e-KYC,
E-sign, Digital LockerRapidly growing base of paperless systems with billions of artifacts
CASHLESS LAYER IMPS, AEPS, APB, and UPIGame changing electronic payment systems and transition to cashless
economy
COMMERCE(GSTn)
CREDIT(RBI)
INVESTMENTS
(SEBI)OTHERS
I N D
I A
S
T A
C K
SKILLS
JAM Jan Dhan + Aadhaar + Mobile
WE WILL GO FROM DATA POOR TO DATA RICH NATION IN 5 YEARS!
Digital Identity
Paperless Process
Commerce
Payment
Social
Machine Intelligence & Automation
TO INCREASE MARKET SIZE BY 10X TO 50X,
THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS MUST BE BROUGHT DOWN!
Need a loan
Sees loan
offers
Accepts best offer
Receives loan
Gets paid
digitally
Repays loan
Agrees to share data
Data sharing norms &
tech
Credit marketplace
app
Credit market-place
paperless contract
Transaction a/c & app
Payment app
Payment app
Aadhaar/eKYC
digilocker
API for loan
offers
eSign Digilocker
UPI
authorization
api
UPI
UPI
Credit without friction will bring millions into the formal economy!
Paperless instant credit markets based on digital exhaust
● Digitize their supply chains
● Increase consumption of digital infrastructure - payments, logistics, etc.
● Leave digital footprints for service providers, and customers alike.
● Digitize their customers
● The best aggregators use these digital footprints to enhance their services!
NEW AGE PLATFORMS ARE DIGITIZING THEIR ECOSYSTEMS
Customers
Platforms
Service Providers Product
Providers
Partners
Jobs / Provide
rJobs = Service
Providers ×
Only 6,500 Employees
1.5 Mil Cars & Drivers
New Age PlatformsCreate a few, high-value jobs that can be leveraged to enable service providers.
Service ProvidersLarge number of service providersEach service provider creates multiple jobs
10,000 Hospitals200,000 Doctors,
Labs, etc.
1.5 Mil Cars 0.25 Mil Cars 100,000+ Merchants
5,000 Employees
6,500 Employees
8,000 Employees
4,500 Employees
100,000+ MerchantsLogistics, Support
23,000 Employees
Market E
stimates Only
Global
ACCELERATING CHANGE!
1. Bharat embracing Smartphones- Stayzilla sells more hotel rooms than
MakeMyTrip- Newshunt is bigger than Times of
India in readership
Aadhaar: open digital biometric identity
Paperless: E-sign, Digi-Locker and eKYC
Payment layer: IMPS and UPI
Country commercial transaction layer: GSTn
Open Privacy Consent Network: Dec launch
2. Open API “India Stack”- Aadhaar is 900 Mil – Bhamashah
huge opp.- IMPS bigger than Visa/MC- GSTn will see 3 Bil invoices/month- India will have largest e-sign user
base by Dec 2016- Democratized innovation
India Stack as Digital Infrastructure
Regulatory Policy
Market Making Policy via Challenge Grants
100s of Experiments - Low barriers to entry - Level playing field - Aligned to national issues - Rapid success/failure cycle
A robust
foundation to
enable innovative
solutions to
India’s hard
problems
Innovative Solutions to India’s Hard Problems - Commercially Viable - Far reaching consumer impact - Reinforces experimentation
India is optimizing to empower problem solvers. Startups will be the force multiplier to catapult the country into a $10 Trillion economy by 2030.
“