the high north the natural resources the northeast passage
TRANSCRIPT
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The High North The Natural Resources The Northeast Passage
Jan Magne Markussen Managing Director, Senior Research Fellow
Ocean Futures, Oslo
Norwegian Business Delegation to The Republic of Korea Seoul 15 May 2012
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Part 1: Introduction
Ocean Futures, Oslo © 2012. All rights reserved
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Natural Resources – Oil and gas
Possibilities – 22% of the Undiscovered petroleum resources
in the High North
– New Border with Russia in the Barents Sea
– New Petroleum Province in the Barents Sea due to recent, major petroleum discoveries
– 5 May 2012: Agreement between Rosneft and Statoil
Uncertainties – The remaining 78%
– Shale gas
– Cost
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Northeast Passage
Possibilities – Strong Increase in the Number of Sailings – Increased Sailing Season – Improved Ice Conditions – Significantly Bigger Ships – Increased International interest
Uncertanties – Commercial TEST sailings
Major Shipping Focus in the High North
– Destinational Shipping – Intra Arctic Shipping
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Environment
Major Paradox – Global Climate Change has created the
opportunities
Necessary Focus on the Environment – We are witnessing the fastest and biggest changes
in the Climate in the High North
– Resources explotation and transit sailings must be done in an environmentally sustainable way
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Part 2: Ocean Futures
Ocean Futures is co-located with the FAFO research center in Oslo
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Ocean Futures Competence
• Independent, multidisciplinary research institute
• Polar regions, oceans and seabed
• International projects
• Holistic approach
• Cooperation with foreign and Norwegian research communities - and with representatives of industry and shipping.
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Ocean Futures Projects (High North Projects 2012-2011)
• November 2012: The Shipping in Arctic Waters-report will be published as book on Springer Verlag
• September 2012: Circumpolar Maps
• May 2012: Planning Document for “The First International Narvik Conference on Arctic Ports”, to be Organized 9-11 April 2013
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• April 2012: The Fishing Fleets Future Framework Conditions
• May 2011: Arctic Wiki
• April 2011: Arctic Shipping – The Effects for Northern Norway
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• April 2011: Arctic Shipping – Status and Research Gaps
• March 2011: Natural Resources in the High North
• March 2011: Safety at Sea in Northern, Ice-Covered Waters
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New Ocean Futures High North Programme from October 2012 Focusing on:
• Natural Resources • Trade Flows • Ports • Shipping • Logistics • Environment • Safety at Sea • Industrial Development
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Ocean Futures organisational CV
• The org CV is available by contacting [email protected]
(temporary address)
• Ocean Futures new web site will be available July 2012
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Part 3: Northeast Passage
Danish vessel Nordic Barents sailing through the Northeast Passage Oct 2010
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Part 3 A Some Introductory Remarks
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Research on Arctic Shipping
1. The International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) was a six- year (1993-1999) international research programme (Russia, Japan and Norway) that produced 167 working papers, and several articles, reports and books.
2. Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) report (2009), Arctic Council.
3. Ocean Futures completed in May 2010 a multi-disciplinary 339-pages study, Shipping in Arctic Waters, to be published by the Springer publishing house in November 2012.
The study compares the Northeast, Northwest, and Trans Polar Passages, and includes natural resources, infrastructure, geopolitics, legal issues and environmental aspects.
Initiated by Ocean Futures, commissioned by CHNL, financed by Innovation Norway, CHNL and Ocean Futures.
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Northeast Passage
• Northeast Passage (NEP): connects the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean on the northern coast of Eurasia, from Murmansk to the Bering Strait.
• Northern Sea Route (NSR): The main stretch is known by its Russian name, the Northern Sea Route.
• The difference between NEP and NSR is that the former consists of NSR in addition to the Barents Sea.
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Displaying two shipping routes. The Northeast Passage (red) compared to the Suez Canal route
(yellow)
Source: PAME 2006
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Types of Shipping
• Intra-Arctic shipping is shipping between
destinations within the Arctic Ocean, for example between Dudinka and Murmansk.
• Destination-Arctic shipping is shipping from the Arctic to destinations outside the region, for example between Murmansk and Rotterdam.
• Transit-Arctic shipping is transit sailings between ports in the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans via the Arctic Ocean, for example sailings from ports in Japan to ports in Germany, via the NEP.
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Ice Conditions in the Arctic
• The extent of the Arctic sea ice was at its second lowest in the satellite record, on 9 September 2011.
• The minimum extent was only slightly above 2007, the record low year, even though weather conditions this year were not as conducive to ice loss as in 2007.
• Northeast Passage had a record long sailing season in 2011, spanning from 29 June to November 18 (Barents Observer, accessed 20 December).
• The Northwest Passage was open for a period during September.
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Sea ice extent in the Arctic September 18 2011.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO
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Part 3 B Northeast Passage
Status and Prospects
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Northeast Passage Sailings Some Transit-/Destination Sailings Summer Seasons 2009 og 2010
Source: Ocean Futures 2011
Owner Ship Dwt Destinations(Date)
Cargo Comments
BelugaShippingGroup
MVForesight 12000 Ulsan(21.08.09)-NovyPort(07.09.09)-Murmansk-
Componentstopowerplant
Firstforeignshipintransitthroughthe
NortheastPassage(NEP)
MVFraternity 12000
BelugaShippingGroup
MVHouston 12000 Norrkoping-NovyPort(26.07.10)
Componentstopowerplant
Destinationalshipping,wherepartsoftheNEPare
used
MVFortitude 20000
MurmanskShippingCompany
Indiga 16000 Murmansk(14.07.10)-Pevek(22.07.10)
Dieselfuel Startetthetransitseason2010Varzuga 16000
Sovcomflot SCFBaltica 100000 Murmansk(14.08.10)-Pevek(25.08.10)-Ningbo(Kina)(06.09.10)
Gascondensate ThebiggestgastransportintransitthroughNEPin2010
season
NordicBulkCarriers MVNordicBarents 41000 Kirkenes(04.09.10)-Kina(30.09.10)
Ironoreconcentrate
Firstforeignbulkshipintransit
throughNEP
NorilskNikkel Monchegorsk 18000 Murmansk(15.09.10)-Dudinka-Shanghai(17.10.10)
Metalconcentrate Firstshipwithouticebreakingassistance
intransitthroughNEP
Russianstateowned GeorgOts 12600 Murmansk(09.09.10)-Anadyr(26.09.10)-Petropavlovsk-Vladivostok(10.10.10)
Passengership Firstpassengershipintransitthrough
NEP
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Northeast Passage Sailings Cont. Some Transit-/Destination Sailings Summer Seasons 2011
Cont.
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Some Transit-/Destination Sailings Summer Seasons 2011 Cont.
Sources: Ocean Futures 2012 and CHNL 2012
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VolumeoftransitcargoestransportedontheNortheastPassagein2011Cargo Volumeton VoyagesGascondensate 600607 9Kerosene 64500 1
Dieselfuel 21409 5Iron-oreconcentrate 109950 3
Fish 27535 4Generalcargo 10930 4Total 834931 26
Source:CHNL’sHighNorthLogisticsInformationOffice
Volume of transit-Arctic shipping cargoes transported on the Northeast Passage
in 2011
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Part 3 C Northeast Passage
Some Additional Comments
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Developments Last Year Within Transit Sailings
• The number of transit sailings have increased considerably (32/34 in 2011)
• The ships are becoming increasingly bigger – cf the 162.000 Capesize “Vladimir Tikhonov”
• Different types of raw materials are still being transported • Ice conditions have been extremely good last two seasons • The sailing season has increased due to the ice conditions • Russian sailings versus Western and Asian sailings • We are still talking about commercial test sailings • Test sailings without ice breaker support cause
environmental challenges – how safe is this?
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Part 4: Natural Resources
Foto: Allan Klo. Melkøya, Finnmark
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Why Are Northern and Arctic Areas Attracting so Much Interest?
1. Resources, especially oil and gas - plentiful
2. Climate change and global warming – easier access
3. The new boundary line in the Barents Sea
between Norway and Russia
4. Military-strategic issues - less prominent
5. Increasing interest in northern and Arctic affairs on the part
of non-Arctic states
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The New Boundary Line in the Barents Sea
© Ocean Futures 2012. All rights reserved.
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Petroleum Exploitation in the
Norwegian Part of the Barents Sea
• In 2007, Norwegian LNG plant in Melkøya in the Barents Sea started to produce and ship liquefied gas from Snøhvit field for export.
• The oil field Goliat is expected to start producing in 2013, but it is still uncertain how much it will produce and thus how much will be transported at sea.
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• Two more discoveries in April and August 2011:
– Skrugard, a large oil field and Norvarg, a significant gas field in the Barents Sea, respectively.
• In January 2012, Statoil announced that they had found another oil field, Havis, only 7 kilometers Southwest of Skrugard.
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• Combined, Skrugard and Havis are the 16th largest discovery on the Norwegian continental shelf all-together and the volume lies in the range of 400-600 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalents (statoil.com and e24.no, 9 January 2012, ).
• Havis is the second most significant oil discovery in the Barents Sea in nine months. It has approximately the same volumes and reservoir properties as that of its twin Skrugard.
• With these two significant findings, a new petroleum province opens in the Norwegian part of the Barents Sea.
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Share of World Reserves of Oil and Gas 2010
Country Oil (bbs) % World Gas (tcm) % World
___________________________________________________________________
United States 30.9 2.2 7.7 4.1
Canada 32.1 2.3 1.7 0.9
Russia 77.4 5.6 44.8 23.9
Norway 6.7 0.5 2.0 1.1
Arctic states 147.1 10.6 56.2 30.0
total
World total 1383.2 100.0 187.1 100.0
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
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Arctic Areas Share of Oil and Gas
Reserves of Arctic States in 2007
At end 2007
billion
barrels Oil
Arctic share
total
reserves Oil
At end 2007
tcm
Natural Gas
Arctic share
total
reserves
Natural Gas
United States 4.2 20.0 % 0.18 3 %
Canada 2.0 0.1 % 0.16 10 %
Russia 59.2 75.0 % 38.07 90 %
Norway 0.2 2.0 % 0.21 7 %
Arctic total 65.6 5.3 % 38.41 22 %
Source: BP Statistical Review World Energy June 2008 and Arctic Oil and Gas 2007
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Arctic Proven Reserves of Oil and Gas
• Oil: 5.3% of world reserves
• Gas: 22.0% of world reserves
Arctic Production of Oil and Gas • Oil: 10.0% of world production
• Gas: 25.0% of world production of which
Russia produces 80% of the oil and 99% of the gas
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Oil and Gas in the Barents Sea
© Ocean Futures 2012. All rights reserved.
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Arctic Undiscovered Oil and Gas
US Geological Services estimated in 2008 that
22 % of world undiscovered O&G (o.e.)
are to be found in the Arctic
- 13% of undiscovered oil
- 30% of undiscovered natural gas
- 20% undiscovered NGL
(Arctic defined as all land and sea territory north of the Arctic Circle)
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In the Arctic, but where?
Oil ProvincesMMBO (Mil
barrels Oil)
•Natural Gas
MMBO (Million barrels Oil)
•Natural Gas Provinces
•vinces •MMBO (Million barrels Oil)
•Natural Gas Provinces
•SSSOurceSourceBCFG (Billion CF
Oil Provinces Million barrels of oil
Natural Gas Provinces
Billion cubic feet
Arctic Alaska 29.960.94 West Siberian Basin 651,498.56
Amerasia Basin 9,723.58 East Barents Basin 317,557.97
East Greenland Rift
Basin
8,902.13
Arctic Alaska
221,397.60
East Barents Basin 7,406.49
West Greenland-
East Canada
7,274.40
Sub total (70.3%) 63,267.54 Sub total (71.3%) 1,190,454.10
Total Arctic
89,983.21
Total Arctic
1,668,657.84
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Source: US Geological Survey
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Will the 22% undiscovered Arctic
petroleum resources be found and
recovered?
Probably yes
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BUT
Let’s not forget the other 78% of the world’s
undiscovered oil and gas!
Where are they?
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In areas of the world that are climatically friendlier
and much less costly to develop.
Some Examples
1. Four West African geological provinces from Senegal in the northwest, almost uninterrupted to Namibia in the south. OIL – 72 billion barrels. GAS – 187 trillion cubic feet. NGL – 11 billion barrels.
2. 22 geological provinces in Southeast Asia. OIL – 22 billion. GAS – 299 trillion cubic feet.
3. Geological provinces in the eastern Mediterranian and Egypt. OIL – 3,5 billion barrels. GAS – 345 trillion Cubic feet.
Source: EIA, US Dept of Energy
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Costs
Estimates suggest that costs of developing onshore gas
projects in Alaska can be 50-100% more than similar
projects in Texas.
Estimates of cost of offshore exploration and
development in the Arctic vary from twice to four times
or more as financially demanding as elsewhere.
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To be profitable Arctic oil and gas activities are
dependent on high prices and strong demand, or, put
differently, weak or insufficient supply from other
sources.
This is precisely the «condition» that does not obtain
today as far as Arctic offshore gas is concerned.
The main reason:
US Shale Gas
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Potential Shale Gas Producers (onshore)
(Select countries)
• UK 200 trillion cubic feet
• Poland 187 - « -
• France 180 - « -
• Norway (existing offshore
• gas reserves 72) 83 - « -
• Ukraine 42 - « -
• Sweden 41 - « -
• China 1,275 - « -
• US 862 - « -
• Canada 388 - « -
Source: Energy Information Admnistration (EIA), US Dept of Energy
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When and how fast Arctic petroleum resources will be
developed will depend on
1. The state of the world economy.
2. On economic growth in the big energy consuming countries that
now experience little or anaemic growth, for instance in the US and
Europe.
3. On demand in emerging market economies like China and India
that now grow somewhat less strongly than in past years.
4. On availability of sources of supply not located in the Arctic of
which there are plenty.
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Part 5: Announcements
Port of Narvik
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First International Narvik Conference on Arctic Ports
Narvik 9-11 April 2013
The Conference will be focusing on Resources, Trade Flows, Shipping, Ports,
Logistics, Environment and Industrial Development.
For further information please contact:
• Rune Arnøy, Port of Narvik, Conference Co-Chairman [email protected]
• Jan Magne Markussen, Ocean Futures,
Conference Co-Chairman/responsible for the programme [email protected] (temporary address)
• The planning document for the conference is available by contacting Jan Magne Markussen
Conference organizers
In coop with
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New Book November 2012
SHIPPING IN ARCTIC WATERS written by
Willy Ø streng, Karl Magnus Eger, Arnfinn Jørgensen-Dahl, Brit Fløistad,
Lars Lothe, Morten Mejlæ nder-Larsen and Tor Wergeland
Approx. 500 pages
To be published by Springer Verlag
in cooperation with Ocean Futures
Available from Springer.com and book shops
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A special thanks to my colleagues
Senior Research Fellow, Dr. Arnfinn Jørgensen-Dahl, Ocean Futures
Researcher Ø ystein Russ Kristiansen,
Ocean Futures
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Thank you for your attention
(temporary address)