the great recession and developing countries
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
1/664
OQUPJYMJ B. GJFCD, A@DPKV
PMA HVAJPVAEAUUDKG
AE
KGKODE
DOYJEP
JG@
HVKXPM
YV
KUYAEPU
@A
^ACKY
DGH
EK
QGPVDAU
jg`
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
2/664
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
3/664
PMA HVAJP
VAEAUUDKG@A^ACKYDGHEKQGPVDAU
jg`
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
4/664
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
5/664
OQUPJYMJ B. GJFCD, A@DPKV
AEKGKODE DOYJEP JG@
HVKXPM YVKUYAEPU
PMA HVAJP
VAEAUUDKG@A^ACKYDGH
EKQGPVDAU
jg`
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
6/664
69:: Pma Dgtargjtdkgjc Fjgb nkr Vaekgstruetdkg jg` @avackpoagt/Pma Xkrc` Fjgb
:=:= M Utraat GXXjsmdghtkg @E 69055
Pacapmkga< 696-085-:999
Dgtargat< www.wkrc`fjgb.krh
Jcc rdhmts rasarva`
: 6 5 0 :5 :6 :: :9
Pmds vkcuoa ds j prk`uet kn tma stjnn kn tma Dgtargjtdkgjc Fjgb nkr Vaekgstruetdkg jg`
@avackpoagt / Pma Xkrc` Fjgb. Pma g`dghs, dgtarpratjtdkgs, jg` ekgecusdkgs axprassa` dg
tmds vkcuoa `k gkt gaeassjrdcy rastaet tma vdaws kn tma Axaeutdva @draetkrs kn Pma Xkrc`
Fjgb kr tma hkvargoagts tmay raprasagt.Pma Xkrc` Fjgb `kas gkt hujrjgtaa tma jeeurjey kn tma `jtj dgecu`a` dg tmds wkrb. Pma
fkug`jrdas, ekckrs, agkodgjtdkgs, jg` ktmar dgnkrojtdkg smkwg kg jgy ojp dg tmds wkrb
`k gkt dopcy jgy lu`haoagt kg tma pjrt kn Pma Xkrc` Fjgb ekgeargdgh tma cahjc stjtus kn
jgy tarrdtkry kr tma ag`krsaoagt kr jeeaptjgea kn suem fkug`jrdas.
Vdhmts jg` Yarodssdkgs
Pma ojtardjc dg tmds pufcdejtdkg ds ekpyrdhmta`. Ekpydgh jg`/kr trjgsodttdgh pkrtdkgs kr jcc
kn tmds wkrb wdtmkut parodssdkg ojy fa j vdkcjtdkg kn jppcdejfca cjw. Pma Dgtargjtdkgjc
Fjgb nkr Vaekgstruetdkg jg` @avackpoagt / Pma Xkrc` Fjgb agekurjhas `dssaodgjtdkg
kn dts wkrb jg` wdcc gkrojccy hrjgt parodssdkg tk raprk`uea pkrtdkgs kn tma wkrb prkoptcy.
Nkr parodssdkg tk pmktkekpy kr raprdgt jgy pjrt kn tmds wkrb, pcajsa sag` j raquast
wdtm ekopcata dgnkrojtdkg tk tma Ekpyrdhmt Ecajrjgea Eagtar Dge., 666 Vksawkk` @rdva,
@jgvars, OJ 9:465, QUJ2 tacapmkga< 48=-819-=0992 njx< 48=-819-00892 Dgtargat< www.
ekpyrdhmt.eko.
Jcc ktmar quardas kg rdhmts jg` cdeagsas, dgecu`dgh sufsd`djry rdhmts, smkuc` fa j``rassa`
tk tma Knea kn tma Yufcdsmar, Pma Xkrc` Fjgb, :=:= M Utraat GX, Xjsmdghtkg, @E 69055,
QUJ2 njx< 696-166-60662 a-ojdc< pufrdhmtsIwkrc`fjgb.krh.
DUFG< 48=-9-=6:5-=1:5-1
aDUFG< 48=-9-=6:5-=1:0-6
@KD< :9.:14>/48=-9-=6:5-=1:5-1Cdfrjry kn Ekghrass Ejtjckhdgh-dg-Yufcdejtdkg @jtj
Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` tma `avackpdgh ekugtrdas < aekgkode dopjet jg` hrkwtm
prkspaets.
p. eo.
Dgecu`as fdfcdkhrjpmdejc ranarageas jg` dg`ax.
DUFG 48=-9-=6:5-=1:5-1 DUFG 48=-9-=6:5-=1:0-6 (acaetrkgde)
:. Ndgjgedjc erdsas@avackpdgh ekugtrdasEjsa stu`das. 6. Hckfjc Ndgjgedjc Erdsds,
699=6994. 5. Aekgkode nkraejstdgh@avackpdgh ekugtrdasEjsa stu`das.
0. @avackpdgh ekugtrdasAekgkode ekg`dtdkgs6:st eagtury. 1. Aekgkode
`avackpoagt@avackpdgh ekugtrdasEjsa stu`das. D. Xkrc` Fjgb.MF5866.H80> 69:9
559.4:86'0`e66
69:9901000
Ekvar `asdhg
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
7/664
v
Ekgtagts
Yranjea xvdd
Ekgtrdfutkrs xdx
Jffravdjtdkgs xxddd
: Dgtrk`uetdkg :
Ktjvdjgk Ejgutk jg` Lustdg Tdnu Cdg
6 Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc
Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas :5
Oustjpmj B. Gjfcd
Ekooagt
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
8/664
vd Ekgtagts
> Dg`dj< Vjpd` Vaekvary jg` Utrkghar
Hrkwtm jntar tma Erdsds 651 @dpjb @jshuptj jg` Jfmdldt Uag Huptj
Ekooagt
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
9/664
Ekgtagts vdd
Fkxas
5.:. Ndgjgedjc Uaetkr Vankros, :441699= :96 0.:. Hrkwtm Jeekugtdgh nkr Emdgj :>1
0.6. Emdgjs Ndsejc Utdoucus Yjebjha :=6
1.:. Utrueturjc Vankros Pmjt Ekuc` Upur Hrkwtm 666
>.:. Xjs Mdhm Hrkwtm Uustjdgjfca; 615
8.:. Ojcjysdj< Kc` jg` Gaw Aekgkode Ok`acs 558
=.:. Astdojtdgh Yktagtdjc Kutput 581
4.:. Oa`duo-Paro Vankro Jhag`j 05=
:9.:. Vasdcdagea kn Ykcjg`s Aekgkoy dg 6994< Dg`dejtdva
Zujgtdejtdkg kn Uacaeta` Njetkrs 0>:
:9.6. Ekgtjhdkg Vdsbs nrko Ukvaradhg @aft Ekgeargs
dg tma Aurk Jraj 0>8
:9.5. Udoucjtdgh tma Ukedjc Dopjet kn tma Uckw`kwg 0>4
:9.0. Ykcjg`s Ndsejc Ekgskcd`jtdkg Utrjtahy 086
:9.1. Pma Hkvargoagts ^dsdkg 6959 080
:9.>. Jssuoptdkgs nkr Ojerkaekgkode Yrklaetdkgs 080 :9.8. Hrkwtm Dopjet kn AQ Nug`s 08>
:9.=. Vankro Dssuas dg Ykcjg`s Cjg` Prjgspkrt Uaetkr 088
:9.4. Pma Uckvjb Vapufcdes Vankros kn 6996 0=9
:9.:9. Hrkwtm Dopjet kn Cjfkr Yjrtdedpjtdkg Oajsuras 0=:
:6.:. Nkk`-Nuac Erdsds dg datgjo, 69989= 11=
Ndhuras
:.:. Utkeb Ojrbat Dg`ax 5
:.6. Emjgha dg Axpkrt ^kcuoas kvar tma Yravdkus
:6 Okgtms 0
6.:. Axeass kn Jetujc H@Y Hrkwtm kvar Yktagtdjc
H@Y Hrkwtm :=
6.6. Hrkss Ndxa` Ejpdtjc Nkrojtdkg `urdgh
Yraerdsds Yardk`s 60
6.5. Axemjgha Vjtas J`lusta` Vjpd`cy 5>
6.0. Pma Dopjet kn tma Erdsds kg H@Y Hrkwtm 09
6.1. Jfskcuta jg` Vacjtdva Kutput Hjps, 6994 0:
6.>. Jetujc vs. Astdojta` Kutput Hjp, 6994 06
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
10/664
vddd Ekgtagts
6.8. H@Y nkr Oaxdek jg` tma Qgdta` Utjtas 05
6.=. Ojcjysdj< Ekgtrdfutdkgs tk Hrkwtm fy Uaetkr 01 6.4. Fjgb Era`dt dg Purbay 0>
5.:. Hrkwtm jg` Frjzdcs Ukvaradhg Vdsb, :4406994 45
5.6. Hrkwtm, Dgstjtdkg, Utjfdcdzjtdkg Ycjgs, jg` @aft
Erdsas, :4=941 41
5.5. Ekgtrdfutdkg tk Hrkwtm fy @aojg` Ekopkgagt,
:4406996 4>
5.0. Hrkwtm jg` Umjra kn H@Y fy Uaetkr, :4406996 4=
5.1. Ekook`dty Yrdeas nkr Axpkrts jg` Gat Prj`a,699694 ::9
5.>. Gat Axtargjc Cdjfdcdtdas, 699:94 ::6
5.8. Ekgtrdfutdkg tk Hrkwtm fy @aojg` Ekopkgagt,
699694 ::0
5.=. Hrkwtm jg` Umjra kn H@Y fy Uaetkr, 69969= ::1
5.4. Ykvarty Vjtas jg` Ekg`dtdkgjc Ejsm Prjgsnars,
:446699= ::=
5.:9. Ukvaradhg Upraj`s, Axemjgha Vjta, UtkebOjrbat Dg`ax, Ekook`dty Yrdeas, Axpkrts,
jg` Axtargjc Fjcjgeas :66
5.::. Ejpdtjc Dgstkws, 699694 :61
5.:6. H@Y Hrkwtm, Dg`ustrdjc Yrk`uetdkg, Qgaopckyoagt,
jg` Dgstjtdkg :6>
5.:5. Xjhas jg` Ykvarty dg Oatrkpkcdtjg Jrajs, 699694 :59
5.:0. H@Y Hrkwtm @aekopksdtdkg, 6995:9 :59
5.:1. Ojrbat Axpaetjtdkgs nkr 6994 H@Y Hrkwtm :5=
@5.:. Dg`ustrdjc Yrk`uetdkg (Ymysdejc Zujgtdtdas) fy
Axpkrt Dgtagsdty (Jggujc Jvarjhas) :1>
@5.6. Jraj Ycjgta` :1=
@5.5. Vajc H@Y Hrkwtm< Frjzdc jg` Uacaeta` Ekugtry
Hrkups :14
@5.0. Vajc H@Y par Ejpdtj :>9
0.:. Emdgj H@Y Hrkwtm Vjta, :4416998 :>5 0.6. Ujvdgh jg` Dgvastoagt dg Emdgj :>8
0.5. Dg`ustry Mjs @rdvag Hrkwtm :>=
0.0. Cjfkr Yrk`uetdvdty dg Dg`ustry Mjs Ukjra` :>=
0.1. Emdgjs (Aaetdva) Axemjgha Vjta Prag`s :89
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
11/664
Ekgtagts dx
0.>. Jetujc jg` Yktagtdjc H@Y Mjva Hrkwg Utaj`dcy
dg Vaeagt Tajrs :8: 0.8. Pma Xjha Umjra Mjs @aecdga` :85
0.=. Axpkrt Hrkwtm (Tajr-kg-Tajr) fy Ekook`dty Hrkup :88
0.4. Nkradhg Axemjgha Vasarva Jeeuoucjtdkg :8=
0.:9. Gaw Fjgbdgh Cag`dgh :=9
0.::. Gaw Oa`duo- tk Ckgh-Paro Fjgbdgh Cag`dgh,
699>94 :=5
1.:. Mkw Dgtahrjta` Ds Atmdkpdj wdtm tma Hckfjc
Aekgkoy; (Erkss-Ekugtry vs. Pdoa Uardas) 691 1.6. Atmdkpdjs Oaremjg`dsa Prj`a Uckwa` Ekgsd`arjfcy
jntar tma Hckfjc Erdsds 698
1.5. Prj`a dg Uarvdeas Jcsk Uckws jntar tma Erdsds, Jcfadt
wdtm j Cjh 694
1.0. Nckw kn Yrdvjta Prjgsnars jg` N@D Jra Jcsk Jaeta`
fy tma Hckfjc Erdsds 6:9
1.1. Atmdkpdjs H@Y Ekgtdguas Hrkwdgh Utrkghcy jod`
tma Hckfjc Erdsds 6:6 1.>. Atmdkpdjs Vjpd` Hrkwtm dg Jhhrahjta @aojg`
Gkt Eurfa` fy tma Hckfjc Erdsds 6:6
1.8. Uaetkrjc Ekgtrdfutdkg tk Atmdkpdjs Hrkwtm Vjta 6:0
1.=. Ajsy Okgay jg` Dgerajsa` Vaodttjgeas Yjrtcy
Ndgjgea Atmdkpdjs Aekgkode Fkko 6:1
1.4. Kvarvjcua` Axemjgha Vjta Agekurjhas Dopkrts
kvar @koastde Yrk`uetdkg 6:8
1.:9. Atmdkpdj Uaas Umjrp Vdsa dg Axtargjc Jd` Yksterdsds 669
1.::. Atmdkpdjs Oa`duo-Paro Hrkwtm Yrkspaets ug`ar
Pwk Ueagjrdks 661
>.:. Dg`dj< Apdsk`as kn Ckgh-Paro Hrkwtm 658
>.6. Dg`dj< Ykvarty Prag`s 65=
>.5. Dg`dj< Prag`s dg Yar Ejpdtj Dgekoa 654
>.0. Uaetkrjc Umjras kn H@Y 609
>.1. Dg`dj< Vdsdgh Dgvastoagt Vjtas jg` H@Y Hrkwtm 60: >.>. Dg`dj< Ekgtrdfutdkgs tk H@Y Hrkwtm 60:
>.8. Dg`dj @aekupcdgh; Dg`dj jg` Q.U. H@Y Hrkwtm Vjtas 60>
>.=. Dg`dj< Dgvastoagt Eyecas js tma Yrdoa @rdvar kn
Njstar Hrkwtm 608
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
12/664
x Ekgtagts
>.4. Dg`dj< Hrkss Ejpdtjc Dgstkws jg` Nkradhg
Vasarvas J``dtdkg 60= >.:9. Dg`djs Prj`a Hrkwtm 604
>.::. Dg`djs Eyecdejc Hrkwtm Uckw`kwg Yrdkr tk
Ndgjgedjc Erdsds 616
>.:6. Dg`djg Ekrpkrjta Yarnkrojgea Yrdkr tk tma Erdsds 611
>.:5. Aaetdva Axemjgha Vjtas Yrdkr tk tma Erdsds 61>
>.:0. Era`dt Hrkwtm Xajbags 6>5
>.:1. Aaets kn tma Erdsds kg Dg`djs Ndgjgedjc Ojrbats 6>1
>.:>. Vajc Uaetkr Dopjet kn tma Hckfjc Erdsds 6>8 >.:8. Dg`ustrdjc Yrk`uetdkg Uurhas tk Yraerdsds Cavacs,
js @kas Dgstjtdkg 686
>.:=. Ejpdtjc Nckws Vaturg jg` Utkeb Ojrbats Doprkva 685
8.:. Vajc H@Y Hrkwtm, :4896994 591
8.6. J Frajb dg tma Ojcjysdj Hrkwtm Prag` 59>
8.5. J Ekccjpsa dg Dgvastoagt jod` Mdhm Ujvdghs 59=
8.0. Ekgtrdfutdkg tk H@Y Hrkwtm 5:9
8.1. Jhrdeucturjc Ekgtrdfutdkg tk H@Y 5:: 8.>. Axpkrts Hrkwtm 5:6
8.8. Ejpjedty Qtdcdzjtdkg 5:5
8.=. Ojgunjeturdgh Axpkrts Hrkwtm jg` Vajc Aaetdva
Axemjgha Vjta 5:0
8.4. Ndsejc Yksdtdkg kn tma Ojcjysdjg Hkvargoagt 5:>
8.:9. Yufcde @aft jg` Fu`hat Fjcjgea js Yareagtjha
kn H@Y 5:8
8.::. Axpkrt @astdgjtdkgs nkr Ojcjysdjs Ojgunjetura`
Yrk`uets 5:=
8.:6. Ekgtrdfutdkg tk Axpkrts Hrkwtm fy @astdgjtdkg 5:4
8.:5. Gat Nug`s Dgstkw 569
8.:0. Dgtargjtdkgjc Vasarvas jg` OTV/QU$ Axemjgha Vjta 56:
8.:1. Cjfkr Nkrea jg` Qgaopckyoagt 566
8.:>. Pma Ckss kn Kutput jg` tma Uckw`kwg dg Hrkwtm 565
8.:8. BCDFKV jg` Na` Nug` Vjta 56> 8.:=. Ckjg Hrkwtm jg` Ckjg @apksdt Vjtdk 568
8.:4. Q.U. Gaw Kr`ars jg` Ojcjysdjs Dg`ustrdjc
Yrk`uetdkg Hrkwtm 56=
8.69. AOFD Hckfjc Utrdp Upraj` 559
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
13/664
Ekgtagts xd
8J.:. ^jrdjgea @aekopksdtdkg 506
8J.6. DYD Dopucsa Vaspkgsa tk Uuppcy Umkeb 505 8J.5. DYD Dopucsa Vaspkgsa tk Vajc @aojg` Umkeb 505
8J.0. DYD Dopucsa Vaspkgsa tk Gkodgjc Umkeb 500
=.:. Dgekoa par Xkrbar jg` PNY Jggujc Hrkwtm,
:4=96998 5>1
=.6. Jggujc Hrkwtm kn Nkradhg Prj`a (Dopkrts jg`
Axpkrts), :44669:9 5>>
=.5. Oaxdek jg` tma Qgdta` Utjtas< Dg`ustrdjc
Jetdvdty Dg`axas, :4=969:9 5>8 =.0. Pjrhat Dgtarast Vjtas dg tma Qgdta` Utjtas jg`
Oaxdek, 699=94 58:
=.1. H@Y Hrkwtm Vjta, :4=:6994 586
=.>. Kutput Hjps, :4=46994 580
=.8. Kutput, Ejpdtjc, jg` PNY, :4196994 588
=.=. Oaxdeks H@Y< Kfsarva`, Yktagtdjc, jg` Nkraejsts, 584
=.4. Kutput Hjps, :4=469:1 5=9
=.:9. Yar Ejpdtj H@Y Hrkwtm jg` Emjghas dg YkvartyVjtas, :446699= 5=5
4.:. H@Y Hrkwtm jg` Dgvastoagt, :4=:6994 098
4.6. Ekgtrdfutdkg tk H@Y Hrkwtm 09=
4.5. @koastde jg` Nkradhg Ujvdghs 0:9
4.0. Ekopatdtdvagass Dg`dejtkrs 0::
4.1. Yufcde Uaetkr @aft jg` Ukureas kn @aft @ygjodes 0:0
4.>. Ndsejc Fjcjgea @aekopksdtdkg jg` Utrueturjc
Fjcjgea Ekopkgagts 0:1
4.8. @apckyoagt kn Kvarsajs Xkrbars jg`
Vaodttjgeas 0:>
4.=. Agtry kn Nkradhg @draet Dgvastoagt dg Uacaeta`
Ajst Jsdj Ekugtrdas 0:8
4.4. Hrkwtm @aekopksdtdkg jg` Frajb`kwg kn Dts
Utrueturjc Ekopkgagts 0:4
4.:9. Hrkwtm @aekopksdtdkg fy Njetkrs 06: 4.::. Pktjc Axtargjc @aft jg` Vasarva Ekvar 066
4.:6. Pktjc Ckjgs jg` Gkgparnkrodgh Ckjgs 065
4.:5. Vaodttjgeas Jra Yrklaeta` tk @k Xacc js
@apckyoagt Dgerajsas jg` tma Yask Xajbags 050
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
14/664
xdd Ekgtagts
4.:0. Cdodta` Ndsejc Upjea wkuc` Ekgstrjdg Yufcde
Dgvastoagt 051 4.:1. @aft @ygjodes Xkrsag js j Vasuct kn Mdhm @aedt,
Xajb Hrkwtm, jg` Vdsdgh Upraj`s 058
4.:>. Hrkwtm Yjtm ug`ar Vankro Ueagjrdk 054
4.:8. Vankro Ueagjrdk Hrkwtm Yjtm, Prjgsdtdkg jg`
Vaekvary 009
:9.:. H@Y par Ejpdtj Hrkwtm 01:
:9.6. H@Y par Ejpdtj dg Yuremjsdgh Ykwar Utjg`jr`s 016
:9.5. Hrkwtm Njetkr @aekopksdtdkg fy Hrkwtm Yardk` 010 :9.0. Ekopksdtdkg kn Axpkrts fy Njetkr Dgtagsdty 011
:9.1. Ekopksdtdkg kn Ojgunjeturdgh Axpkrts fy
Paemgkckhy Dgtagsdty 01>
:9.>. Jggujc Uaetkrjc Hrkwtm Vjtas kn Hrkss jcua
J``a` (H^J), :441699= 01>
:9.8. Jggujc Hrkwtm Vjtas kn H^J, Mkurs Xkrba`,
jg` H^J par Mkur, :441699= 018
:9.=. Vajc Qgdt Cjfkr Eksts 01= :9.4. Ujvdghs jg` Dgvastoagt, :444699= 014
:9.:9. Yufcde jg` Yrdvjta Ujvdghs jg` Dgvastoagt Hjps,
:444699= 0>9
:9.::. H@Y Hrkwtm varsus Fjgb-Vacjta` Dgstkws, Eurragt
Jeekugt Fjcjgea, jg` Dgstjtdkg Vjta 0>6
:9.:6. Ekgtrdfutdkg kn Gat Axpkrts jg` @koastde
@aojg` tk H@Y Hrkwtm 0>0
:9.:5. Hrkwtm Vjtas kn Yufcde, Yrdvjta, jg` Pktjc
Dgvastoagt 0>0
:9.:0. Jssat Ecjss Yarnkrojgea dg Ykcjg` 0>>
:9.:1. Aopckyoagt Hrkwtm nkr :1- tk >0-Tajr-Kc`s
fy Ubdcc Cavac 0>4
:9.:>. Ykcjg` jg` AQ:1 Hrkwtm @daragtdjc 085
::.:. H@Y Hrkwtm Vjtas 048
::.6. Umjra kn Ekgsuoar Era`dts dg Pktjc Era`dt 199 ::.5. Dgstjtdkg jg` Ykcdey Vjtas, Vajc Aaetdva
Axemjgha Vjta Dg`ax 19:
::.0. Pma Aoarhdgh Ojrbats Fkg` Dg`ax (AOFD)+
Purbay Upraj`s 196
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
15/664
Ekgtagts xddd
::.1. H@Y Hrkwtm jg` Ekgtrdfutdkg fy Axpag`dturas 195
::.>. Axpkrts kn Uacaeta` Uaetkrs 190 ::.8. @aekopksdtdkg kn Dgtaroa`djta Dgputs dg
Yrk`uetdkg kn Ojgunjeturdgh Ndros 191
::.=. Ujvdgh jg` Dgvastoagt Vjtas jg` tma
Ujvdghs-Dgvastoagt Hjp 198
::.4. Cjfkr Yrk`uetdvdty jerkss Uaetkrs 194
::.:9. Yrdvjta Dgvastoagt, Yufcde Axpag`dturas, jg`
H@Y Hrkwtm Vjtas, Jggujcdza` 1::
::.::. Ekg`agea Dg`axas jg` Ejpdtjc Jeekugtjntar 699> 1:6
::.:6. Cjfkr Ojrbat Dg`dejtkrs `urdgh tma Hckfjc Erdsds 1:0
::.:5. Cjfkr Yrk`uetdvdty jg` Xjhas Dg`axas dg Dg`ustry
jg` Uarvdeas Uaetkrs 1:1
::.:0. Xkrc`wd`a Yuremjsdgh Ojgjhars Dg`axas jg`
Purbdsm Axpkrts jg` Dopkrts `urdgh tma Erdsds 1:>
::.:1. Dg`ustrdjc Yrk`uetdkg jg` Dgvagtkry Jeeuoucjtdkg 1:8
::.:>. Ndgjgea Emjggac 1:4 ::.:8. Eagtrjc Hkvargoagt Fjcjgea 16:
:6.:. ^datgjo H@Y Hrkwtm Vjta, :4496994 119
:6.6. N@D dg datgjo, :449699= 111
:6.5. ^datgjo Dgvastoagt-Ujvdghs Hjp, :44>699= 11>
:6.0. Ojdg Axpkrt Ojrbats, 699= 189
:6.1. @dvarsdejtdkg kn Axpkrt Ojrbats 18:
:6.>. Dgstjtdkg jg` Ekst kn Ejpdtjc, Jetujc jg` Yrklaeta`
tk 69:1 180
:6.8. Fu`hat Ekccaetdkgs jg` Axpag`dturas 181
:6.=. H@Y Hrkwtm jg` Dgvastoagt 188
:6.4. Dgvastoagt Utruetura fy Kwgarsmdp 18=
Pjfcas
:.:. Emjgha dg Vajc Hrkwtm Vjta fatwaag 6998jg` 6994 1
:.6. Eurragt Jeekugt jg` Hrkwtm Yarnkrojgea >
:.5. Pma @dstrdfutdkg kn Hckfjc Aekgkode Jetdvdty :9
6.:. H@Y Hrkwtm `urdgh tma Yraerdsds Fkko Yardk` :>
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
16/664
xdv Ekgtagts
6.6. Ykcdey Vaspkgsa tk tma Erdsds< Okgatjry Ykcdey 58
6.5. Ykcdey Vaspkgsa tk tma Erdsds< Ndsejc Utdoucus 5= 6.0. Hckfjc Ueagjrdk 11
6.1. Oa`duo-Paro H@Y Hrkwtm Yrkspaets jntar
tma Erdsds >9
6J.:. Vahrassdkg Vasucts< Pma Dopjet kn tma Hckfjc
Ndgjgedjc Erdsds 88
5.:. @aekopksdtdkg kn H@Y Hrkwtm, :4406996 4>
5.6. Axpkrts, Dopkrts, jg` Paros kn Prj`a, :4406996 48
5.5. Hrkwtm @aekopksdtdkg, :440699= 44 5.0. Frjzdcs Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs, :4406996 :91
5.1. Axpkrts, Dopkrts, jg` Paros kn Prj`a, 69969= ::9
5.>. @aekopksdtdkg kn H@Y Hrkwtm, 699694 ::5
5.8. Frjzdcs Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs, 69969= ::4
5.=. @aekopksdtdkg kn Na`arjc Hkvargoagt Yrdojry
Fjcjgea Va`uetdkg, 699=94 :55
5.4. Uuoojry Dopjet kn tma Erdsds :5>
5.:9. @aojg`-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs :06 5.::. Uuppcy-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs :00
0.:. Okgatjry Dg`dejtkrs, 699=94 :=9
0.6. Emdgj< Oa`duo-Paro Ueagjrdk, 69:9:1 :49
1.:. Atmdkpdj< Oa`duo-Paro Ueagjrdk, 69:9:5 665
>.:. Dg`dj< Bay Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs, NT4=NT:9 605
>.6. Dg`dj< Bay Ykcdey Vjtas jg` Dgstjtdkg 61=
>.5. Nckw kn Gkgfjgb Vaskureas tk tma Ekooaredjc
Uaetkr 6>6
>.0. Axtargjc Ndgjgedgh nkr Aoarhdgh Jsdj 6>5
>.1. Okgatjry Ykcdey Oajsuras 6>4
>.>. Ndsejc Utdoucus Oajsuras 689
>.8. Dg`dj< Jetujc jg` Yrklaeta` Hrkwtm dg tma
Oa`duo Paro 680
>.=. Nkraejst Jggujc Hrkwtm Vjtas< Fjsa Ejsa 680
>.4. Uuppcy-Ud`a Njetkrs famdg` Dg`djs Hrkwtm Yrkspaets 6=9 >J.:. Dg`dj< Fjsde Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs 6=1
>J.6. Dg`dj< @aekopksdtdkg kn H@Y Hrkwtm 6=4
>J.5. Dg`dj< @koastde jg` Dgtargjtdkgjc Ndgjgedjc
Dgtaroa`djtdkg 649
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
17/664
Ekgtagts xv
>J.0. Dg`dj< Axtargjc Prj`a 64:
>J.1. Dopjet kn tma Erdsds< Uuoojry 646 >J.>. @aojg`-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs 645
8.:. Ojcjysdjs Vajc H@Y Hrkwtm 59>
8.6. Ukureas kn Hrkwtm, Pktjc Aekgkoy, :4=86998 598
8.5. Hrkwtm dg tma kcuoa kn Xkrc` Oaremjg`dsa
Prj`a fy Uacaeta` Vahdkg jg` Aekgkoy, 69999= 5:6
8.0. Ndgjgedjc Uaetkr Dg`dejtkrs 5:1
8.1. Pma Ekst kn tma Erdsds Ds Mdhm, Oajsura` dg Kutput Hjp 560
8.>. Kutput Hjp 560 8.8. Fjsa Ejsa Jssuoptdkgs 550
8.=. Ckgh-Paro Ueagjrdk 551
8.4. Fjsa Ejsa Vasucts 55>
8.:9. Vasucts< Ueagjrdk wdtm Vankros 558
Jgg. 8F. Ojcjysdj Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs 501
=J.:. Fjsde Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs 5=>
=J.6. @aekopksdtdkg kn H@Y Hrkwtm (Ekgtrdfutdkg
tk H@Y Hrkwtm) 54: =J.5. Hrkwtm Njetkr @aekopksdtdkg 546
=J.0. @koastde jg` Dgtargjtdkgjc Ndgjgedjc Dgtaroa`djtdkg 545
=J.1. Axtargjc Prj`a 540
=J.>. Uuoojry Dopjet kn tma Erdsds 541
=J.8. @aojg`-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs 54>
=J.=. Uuppcy-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs 548
4.:. Cjfkr jg` Aopckyoagt Dg`dejtkrs, 699994 0:6
4.6. Ndgjgedgh Ukureas 06>
4.5. Gjtdkgjc Hkvargoagt Ejsm Jeekugts, 699>:9 05:
4.0. Fjsacdga Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs, 699>:1 055
4.1. Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs dg tma Vankro Ueagjrdk, 699>:1 054
:9.:. Uacaeta` Utrueturjc Hrkwtm Dg`dejtkrs 084
::.:. Fjsde Ojerkaekgkode Dg`dejtkrs jg` Pmadr kcjtdcdty 048
::.6. Fjsde Dg`dejtkrs kn Yufcde Uaetkr Fjcjgea 044
::.5. Uacaeta` Fjgbdgh Uaetkr Dg`dejtkrs 199 ::.0. Uacaeta` Dg`dejtkrs dg Mdhm-Ujvdgh Ekugtrdas
jg` Purbay 19>
::.1. Ndgjgedgh kn Ujvdgh Dgvastoagt Hjp dg Purbay 19=
::.>. Uacaeta` Dg`dejtkrs dg Cjfkr Ojrbat 1:9
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
18/664
xvd Ekgtagts
::.8. @aojg`-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs 168
::.=. Uuppcy-Ud`a Hrkwtm Yrklaetdkgs 164 ::.4. Uuoojry kn tma Dopjet kn tma Erdsds 159
::.:9. Ukureas kn Hrkwtm 15:
::.::. Ekgtrdfutdkg kn Muojg Ejpdtjc tk PNY jg` H@Y 15:
::.:6. Hrkwtm Njetkr @aekopksdtdkg 15:
::.:5. @aekopksdtdkg kn PNY Hrkwtm 156
:6.:. H@Y Utruetura fy Uaetkr jg` Kwgarsmdp, :441699= 11:
:6.6. H@Y @aekopksdtdkg, :44>699= 115
:6.5. Utruetura kn Dgvastoagt fy Kwgarsmdp, :441699= 11> :6.0. Hrkwtm Jeekugtdgh, :4=>6994 118
:6.1. Fjsde Zujrtarcy Ojerkaekgkode @jtj `urdgh
tma Erdsds 114
:6.>. Uuoojry kn tma Hckfjc Aekgkode Erdsds kg
^datgjos Aekgkoy 1>6
:6.8. Yrkpkrtdkg kn Utdoucus Yjebjha tk H@Y 1>0
:6.=. ^datgjos Ndsejc Utdoucus Yjebjha 1>1
:6.4. Yrklaetdkgs kn Bay Axtargjc jrdjfcas 185 :6.:9. Dgstjtdkg, Dgtarast Vjta, Eurragt Jeekugt, jg`
Axemjgha Vjtas, Jetujc jg` Yrklaeta` tk 69:1 18>
:6.::. Oa`duo-Paro Hrkwtm @aojg`-Ud`a H@Y
Yrklaetdkg 1=:
:6.:6. Oa`duo-Paro Yktagtdjc Kutput Yrklaetdkg 1=6
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
19/664
xvdd
Yranjea
Dg tma okra tmjg twk yajrs sdgea tma aruptdkg kn tma gjgedjc erdsds dg
j`vjgea` ekugtrdas jg` dts spraj` tk faekoa j hckfjc aekgkode erdsds,
jttagtdkg mjs faag jcokst sdghucjrcy nkeusa` kg smkrt-taro `avackp-
oagts, tjetdes nkr ag`dgh tma gjgedjc emjks jg` aekgkode ekccjpsa jg`
dgdtdjtdgh j raekvary, jg` annkrts tk j``rass tma dooa`djta aekgkode jg`
skedjc `dsruptdkgs ejusa` fy tma erdsds. Ouem cass jttagtdkg mjs faag pjd`
tk tma oa`duo- jg` ckgh-taro dopcdejtdkgs kn tma erdsds nkr hrkwtm, pkv-arty ra`uetdkg, jg`okra frkj`cy`avackpoagt dg ckw- jg` od``ca-
dgekoa ekugtrdas. Pk cc tmds hjp, tma Xkrc` Fjgbs Ykvarty Va`uetdkg
jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt Gatwkrb (YVAO) jg` dts @avackpoagt Aek-
gkodes (@AE) ^dea Yrasd`agey lkdgtcy cjugema` j prklaet tk axpckra mkw
tma kghkdgh erdsds, tma pkcdey raspkgsas tk dt, jg` tma pksterdsds hckfjc
aekgkoy wkuc` smjpa tma oa`duo-taro hrkwtm prkspaets kn `avackpdgh
ekugtrdas. J sacaetdkg kn :9 ekugtrdas wjs stu`da` dg kr`ar tk (j) ug`ar-
stjg` tma njetkrs tmjt jnnaeta` tma axtagt kn tma aekgkode dopjetfktm
dg tma smkrt jg` oa`duo tarorasuctdgh nrko tma hckfjc erdsds jg` (f)
macp d`agtdny pkcdey oajsuras tmjt ekuc` suppkrt j okra dgecusdva jg`
sustjdgjfca hrkwtm pjtmj suflaet tmjt ds kn hrajt dgtarast tk tma Xkrc`
Fjgb jg` tma `avackpoagt ekoougdty jt cjrha. Pma hkjc wjs gkt tk nkra-
ejst kr pra`det hrkwtm jg` aekgkode `avackpoagts dg tma ekugtrdas stu`-
da`, fut rjtmar tk ckkb jt mkw tma oa`duo- tk ckgh-taro prkspaets nkr
hrkwtm dg `avackpdgh ekugtrdas odhmt fa jnnaeta` fy tma wjy tma erdsdsjg` tma raekvary pcjy kut jg` fy pksterdsds hckfjc ekg`dtdkgs.
Nkr tma ekugtry stu`das, j sdghca dccustrjtdva hckfjc seagjrdk nkr tma
oa`duo taro mjs faag usa` tk axpckra tma dopjet kn hckfjc aekgkode
ekg`dtdkgs kg hrkwtm dg avackpdgh ekugtrdas. Dt wkuc` mjva faag usanuc
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
20/664
xvddd Yranjea
tk axpckra tma dopjet kn jctargjtdva seagjrdks2 mkwavar, `kdgh sk wjs
faykg` tma sekpa kn tmds prklaet. Dg j``dtdkg, tma erdsds ds kghkdgh jg`tma raekvary ds tagtjtdva. Pma ekgecusdkgs rajema` wdtmdg tmds vkcuoa
oust tmarankra fa ug`arstkk` wdtmdg tma ekgtaxt kn tmasa cdodtjtdkgs
jg` ugeartjdgtdas. Gkgatmacass, wa facdava tmjt tmasa stu`das frdgh j rdem
sat kn `jtj jg` jgjcysas jfkut tma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` dts dopjet kg
`avackpdgh ekugtrdas tmjt wdcc fa usanuc nkr fktm tma jej`aode jg` avac-
kpoagt ekoougdtdas.
Pmds vkcuoa ds j prk`uet kn j prklaet ug`artjbag ug`ar tma caj`ar-
smdp jg` hud`jgea kn Ktjvdjgk Ejgutk, ^dea Yrasd`agt nkr YVAO, jg`Lustdg Tdnu Cdg, Uagdkr ^dea Yrasd`agt jg` Emdan Aekgkodst jt tma Xkrc`
Fjgb (@AE)2 jg` wdtm tma jetdva suppkrt kn Ejrcks Jcfartk Frjhj,
Umjmrkbm Njr`kust, Gj`dr Okmjooa`, jg` Uu`jrsmjg Hkkptu. J
guofar kn ekccajhuas nrko ekugtry tajos jt tma Xkrc` Fjgb prkvd`a`
suppkrt nkr tma prk`uetdkg kn tma ekugtry pjpars< Lkzan @rjjdsoj kg
Oaxdek, Odrdj Ydhjtk kg Dg`dj, jg` Zujgh Mkgh @kjg jg` Ojrtdg
Vjoj kg ^datgjo. Jg`raw Furgs, Ojgskur @jdcjod, jg` @dcdp Vjtmj
prkvd`a` `jtj jg` j`vdea jfkut tma hckfjc seagjrdk. Pmadr macp jg` sup-
pkrt jra hrjtanuccy jebgkwca`ha`. Xa fagata` nrko usanuc suhhastdkgs
jg` ekooagts oj`a fy pjrtdedpjgts `urdgh twk saodgjrs mac` dg
Xjsmdghtkg, @E, @aeaofar :8:=, 6994, jg` Lucy :469, 69:9, `urdgh
wmdem tma pjpars wara ravdawa` jg` `dseussa`. Pma ekooagts nrko
tmasa sassdkgs wara tjbag dgtk ekgsd`arjtdkg dg prapjrdgh tma gjc
pjpars dgecu`a` dg tmds vkcuoa. Pma Lucy saodgjr sassdkgs wara emjdra`
fy Ejrcks Jcfartk Frjhj, Umjmrkbm Njr`kust, Dg`arodt Hdcc, Ojreack
Hduhjca, ^dbrjo Gamru, jg` \dj Okmjooa` Zurasmd2 tma ekooagts
nrko tmasa sassdkgs mjva faag dgecu`a` dg tmds vkcuoa js `dseussjgt
pjpars. Pmrkuhmkut tma prklaet, Vdtj Jbwacay Cjrtay prkvd`a` axeaccagt
j`odgdstrjtdva suppkrt jg` Qtbu Buoru prkvd`a` jfca jg` annaetdva
rasajrem jssdstjgea. Dg j``dtdkg, Utapmag OeHrkjrty, Edg`y Ndsmar, jg`
Gkrj Vd`kc nrko tma Knea kn tma Yufcdsmar prkvd`a` suparf a`dtkrdjc
jg` prk`uetdkg suppkrt.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
21/664
xdx
Ekgtrdfutkrs
A`dtkr
Oustjpmj B. Gjfcd ds Uagdkr J`vdsar, @avackpoagt Aekgkodes, Xkrc`
Fjgb.
Emjptar Jutmkrs
Ghuyag Ghke Jgm ds Emdan Aekgkodst, @avackpoagt jg` Ykcdedas
Vasajrem Eagtar, ^datgjo.
Armjgnj`cd O. Jzrjdds Jssdstjgt ^dea Yrasd`agt, Bmjzjgjm Vasajrem jg`
Dgvastoagt Utrjtahy, Ojcjysdj.
Nargjg`k `a Mkcjg`j Fjrfksj Ndcmk ds Yrknasskr, Nug`jk Hatucdk
^jrhjs, Frjzdc.
Nargjg`k Fcjgek ds Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Jnrdej Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg`
Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ktjvdjgk Ejgutkds ^dea Yrasd`agt jg` Maj` kn tma Ykvarty Va`uetdkg
jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt Gatwkrb, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ghuyag @dgm Emue ds Uagdkr Vasajremar, @avackpoagt jg` Ykcdedas
Vasajrem Eagtar, ^datgjo.
@dpjb @jshuptj ds Caj` Aekgkodst, Ukutm Jsdj Aekgkode Ykcdey jg`Ykvarty Uaetkr, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Harjr`k Asqudvac ds Yrknasskr kn Aekgkodes, Ac Ekcahdk `a Oxdek,
Oaxdek.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
22/664
xx Ekgtrdfutkrs
Jfmdldt Uag Huptj ds Jsskedjta Yrknasskr, Ljwjmjrcjc Gamru Qgdvarsdty,
Dg`dj.Jr`k Mjgsskg ds Caj` Aekgkodst, Ajst Jsdj jg` Yjede Ykvarty
Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ojedal Brzjb ds Ekkr`dgjtkr kn tma Ojerkaekgkode Pajo, Eagtar nkr
Ukedjc jg` Aekgkode Vasajrem, Ykcjg`.
Cuds Budlsds Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Ajst Jsdj jg` Yjede Ykvarty Va`uetdkg
jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Arde Ca Fkrhga ds Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Ajst Jsdj jg` Yjede Ykvarty
Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Lustdg Tdnu Cdg ds Emdan Aekgkodst jg` Uagdkr ^dea Yrasd`agt,
@avackpoagt Aekgkodes, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Jcvjrk Ojgkac ds Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Aekgkode Ykcdey jg` @aft
@apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
@aapjb Odsmrj ds Caj` Aekgkodst, Ajst Jsdj jg` Yjede Ykvarty
Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Umarycc Gjodghdt ds Jgjcyst, Ajst Jsdj jg` Yjede Ykvarty Va`uetdkg
jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ghuyag @ue Gmjt ds Axaeutdva @draetkr, @avackpoagt jg` Ykcdedas
Vasajrem Eagtar, ^datgjo.
Ujouac Yassjds Yrknasskr, Nug`jk Hatucdk ^jrhjs, Frjzdc.
Bjspjr Vdemtards Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Aurkpa jg` Eagtrjc Jsdj Ykvarty
Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ghuyag Pmjgh ds @draetkr, Eagtar nkr Jgjcysds jg` Nkraejstdgh,
^datgjoasa Jej`aoy kn Ukedjc Uedageas, datgjo.
Ojrb Vkcjg` Pmkojs ds Caj` Aekgkodst, Ojerkaekgkodes Qgdt,
Aurkpa jg` Eagtrjc Jsdj Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt
@apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Hjccdgj J. ^dgeacatta ds Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Aekgkode Ykcdey jg` @aft
@apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
23/664
Ekgtrdfutkrs xxd
Edmjg Tjcdg ds Uagdkr Aekgkodst, Ojerkaekgkodes Qgdt, Aurkpa jg`
Eagtrjc Jsdj Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt @apjrt-oagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Jcfart H. \aunjeb ds @draetkr, Bmjzjgjm Vasajrem jg` Dgvastoagt
Utrjtahy, Ojcjysdj.
@dseussjgt Yjpar Jutmkrs
Odcjg Frjmofmjttds Uagdkr J`vdsar, Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode
Ojgjhaoagt Gatwkrb, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Dsmje @dwjgds Ekugtry @draetkr, Xastarg Jnrdej Vahdkg, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Umjmrkbm Njr`kust ds @draetkr, @avackpoagt Aekgkodes Kparjtdkgs
jg` Utrjtahy, Xkrc` Fjgb.
A`hjr`k Njvjrk ds Caj` Aekgkodst, Aekgkode Ykcdey jg` @aft
@apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Dg`arodt Hdccds Emdan Aekgkodst, Aurkpa jg` Eagtrjc Jsdj Knea kn tma
Emdan Aekgkodst, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Uu`jrsmjg Hkkptu ds Uaetkr Ojgjhar, Aekgkode Ykcdey jg` @aft
@apjrtoagt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Frdjg Ydgtk ds Uagdkr J`vdsar, Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode
Ojgjhaoagt Gatwkrb, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ojrtdg Vjoj ds Caj` Aekgkodst, Ukutm Jsdj Knea kn tma Emdan
Aekgkodst, Xkrc` Fjgb.
@jvd` Vksagfcjtt ds Aekgkode J`vdsar, Knea kn tma Uagdkr ^dea
Yrasd`agt, @avackpoagt Aekgkodes, jg` Emdan Aekgkodst, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Cuds Uarvgds Uagdkr J`vdsar, @avackpoagt Aekgkodes Vasajrem Hrkup,
Xkrc` Fjgb.
Ojgu Umjrojds Lugdkr Yrknassdkgjc Jsskedjta, Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg`
Aekgkode Ojgjhaoagt Gatwkrb, Xkrc` Fjgb.
Umjmd` Tusunds Ekgsuctjgt, Xkrc` Fjgb.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
24/664
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
25/664
xxddd
Jffravdjtdkgs
J@F Jsdjg @avackpoagt Fjgb
J@CD jhrdeucturjc `avackpoagtca` dg`ustrdjcdzjtdkg
(kn Atmdkpdj)
JUAJG Jsskedjtdkg kn Ukutmajst Jsdjg Gjtdkgs
FEF Eagtrjc Fjgb kn Frjzdc
FG@AU Na`arjc Aekgkode jg` Ukedjc @avackpoagt Fjgb
(kn Frjzdc)FGO Fjgb Gahjrj Ojcjysdj
FYE Yarojgagt Fagat nkr Ac`arcy Yakpca (kn Frjzdc)
FYK fusdgass prkeass kutskuredgh
fps fjsds pkdgts
FUA Fkofjy Utkeb Axemjgha
FUA Uagsax Fkofjy Utkeb Axemjgha Uagsdtdvdty Dg`ax
FUY Fjghbk Uagtrjc gh Ydcdpdgjs
FUVJ Fjgbdgh Vahucjtdkg jg` Uuparvdsdkg Jhagey (kn Purbay)
FPr Furaju kn tma Prajsury (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)
EJ eurragt jeekugt
EF-FKC Eagtrjc Fjgb Fkjr` kn Cdqud`jtkrs (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)
EFVP Eagtrjc Fjgb kn tma Vapufcde kn Purbay
EEP ekg`dtdkgjc ejsm trjgsnar
E@U era`dt `anjuct swjp
EAG JP eagtrjc vjcua j``a` tjxEN Emrdstdjgk-Ndtzharjc` (ctar)
EKGA JC Ekgsalk Gjedkgjc `a Avjcujedg `a cj Ykctdej `a
@asjrrkcck Ukedjc (kn Oaxdek)
EKGhr ekgsuoptdkg hrkwtm
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
26/664
xxdv Jffravdjtdkgs
EGD Ekgna`arjk Gjtdkgjc a Dg`strdjs (kn Frjzdc)
EYD ekgsuoar prdea dg`axEVV ejsm rasarva rjtdk
EUK Eagtrjc Utjtdstdejc Krhjgdzjtdkg (kn Dg`dj)
@FO @apjrtoagt kn Fu`hat jg` Ojgjhaoagt (kn tma
Ymdcdppdgas)
@@Y @avackpoagt @jtj Ycjtnkro (kn tma Xkrc` Fjgb)
@KN @apjrtoagt kn Ndgjgea (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)
@KU @apjrtoagt kn Utjtdstdes (kn Ojcjysdj)
A&A acaetrdejc jg` acaetrkgdesAE Aurkpajg Ekoodssdkg
AEFs axtargjc ekooaredjc fkrrkwdghs
AO aoarhdgh ojrbat
AOFD Aoarhdgh Ojrbats Fkg` Dg`ax
AVY Aekgkode Vasdcdagey Ycjg (AVY)
akp ag` kn pardk`
AYQ Aekgkode Vapkrts jg` Aekgkode Ycjggdgh Qgdt (kn
Ojcjysdj)
AQ Aurkpajg Qgdkg
N@D nkradhg `draet dgvastoagt
NH^ Hatucdk jrhjs Nkug`jtdkg
NDD nkradhg dgstdtutdkgjc dgvastoagt
NVC Ndsejc Vaspkgsdfdcdty Cjw (kn Frjzdc)
NUJ Ndgjgedjc Uuparvdsdkg Jutmkrdty (kn Ykcjg`)
NT sejc yajr
H@Y hrkss `koastde prk`uet
HAY Hckfjc Aekgkode Yrkspaets(kn tma Xkrc` Fjgb)
HNEN hrkss xa` ejpdtjc nkrojtdkg
HNU Hkvargoagt Ndgjgea Utjtdstdes (kn tma DON)
HkA Hkvargoagt kn Atmdkpdj
HUK Hagarjc Utjtdstdes Knea (kn ^datgjo)
HUP hkk`s jg` sarvdeas tjx
H J hrkss vjcua j``a`MY Mk`rdeb-Yrasektt (ctar)
DFHA Frjzdcdjg Dgstdtuta kn Hakhrjpmy jg` Utjtdstdes
DON Dgtargjtdkgjc Okgatjry Nug`
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
27/664
Jffravdjtdkgs xxv
DGAHD Dgstdtutk Gjedkgjc a Astj`stdej y Hakhrjnj a Dgnkrotdej
(kn Oaxdek)DG^hr dgvastoagt hrkwtm
DYAJ Dgstdtuta kn Jppcda` Aekgkodes Vasajrem
DYD dg`ustrdjc prk`uetdkg dg`ax
DYK Dopkstk skfra Yrk`utks Dg`ustrdjcdzj`ks (kn Frjzdc)
DYY Dgvastoagt Yrdkrdtdas Ycjg (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)
DP dgnkrojtdkg taemgkckhy
BCDFKV Bujcj Cuopur dgtarfjgb knnara` rjta
BVDU Bmjzjgjm Vasajrem jg` Dgvastoagt Utrjtahy (kn Ojcjysdj)CEQ ckejc eurragey ugdt
CHQ ckejc hkvargoagt ugdt
CKJU Krhjgde Cjw kn Ukedjc Yrktaetdkg (kn Frjzdc)
CP ckgh taro
O: okgay suppcy
O6 O: pcus qujsd-okgay
ooj okgtmcy okvdgh jvarjha
OKN Odgdstry kn Ndgjgea (kn Ojcjysdj)
OkNA@ Odgdstry kn Ndgjgea jg` Aekgkode @avackpoagt
(kn Atmdkpdj)
OKKA ojdgtagjgea jg` ktmar kparjtdgh axpagsas
OYD Odgdstry kn Ycjggdgh jg` Dgvastoagt (kn ^datgjo)
OUOAs oderk, sojcc, jg` oa`duo agtarprdsas
GJNPJ Gkrtm Joardej Nraa Prj`a Jhraaoagt
GFY Gjtdkgjc Fjgb kn Ykcjg`
GFU Gjtdkgjc Furaju kn Utjtdstdes (kn Emdgj)
GAJE Gjtdkgjc Aekgkode J`vdskry Ekugedc (kn Ojcjysdj)
GAAV gkodgjc annaetdva axemjgha rjta
GAO Gaw Aekgkode Ok`ac (kn Ojcjysdj)
GNU gkgnjetkr sarvdeas
GDEs gawcy dg`ustrdjcdza` ekugtrdas
GYC gkgparnkrodgh ckjg
GUEF Gjtdkgjc Utjtdstdejc Ekkr`dgjtdkg Fkjr` (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)GUK Gjtdkgjc Utjtdstdes Knea (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)
K@J knedjc `avackpoagt jssdstjgea
KAE@ Krhjgdsjtdkg nkr Aekgkode Ek-kparjtdkg jg`
@avackpoagt
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
28/664
xxvd Jffravdjtdkgs
KAN Kxnkr` Aekgkode Nkraejsts
Y@DE Ymdcdppdgas @apksdt Dgsurjgea EkrpkrjtdkgYDUJ Yrkhrjooa nkr Dgtargjtdkgjc Utu`agt Jssassoagt
YYH-A@ pufcde jg` pufcdecy hujrjgtaa` axtargjc `aft
YYD prdvjta pjrtdedpjtdkg dg dgnrjstruetura
YYY puremjsdgh pkwar pjrdty
YUFV pufcde saetkr fkrrkwdgh raqudraoagt
V&@ rasajrem jg` `avackpoagt
VFD Vasarva Fjgb kn Dg`dj
VAAV rajc annaetdva axemjgha rjtas.j. sajskgjccy j`lusta`
UOAs sojcc jg` oa`duo agtarprdsas
UKA stjta-kwga` agtarprdsa
UPG Gjtdkgjc Prajsury Uaeratjrdjt (kn Frjzdc)
U JV strueturjc vaetkr jutkrahrassdkg
P&E trjgspkrt jg` ekoougdejtdkg
PNY tktjc njetkr prk`uetdvdty
PVY Pjrdnn Vankro Yrkhrjo (kn tma Ymdcdppdgas)
JUU ^datgjo Jej`aoy kn Ukedjc Uedageas
JP vjcua j``a` tjx
X@D Xkrc` @avackpoagt Dg`dejtkrs @jtjfjsa (kn tma Xkrc`
Fjgb)
XAK Xkrc` Aekgkode Kutckkb(kn tma DON)
XPK Xkrc` Prj`a Krhjgdzjtdkg
yky yajr-kg-yajr
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
29/664
:
:
Xmdca hckfjcdzjtdkg mjs faag j pkwarnuc aghdga kn aekgkode hrkwtm kvar
tma pjst tmraa `aej`as, dt mjs jcsk pksa` gaw prkfcaos jg` emjccaghas,
aspaedjccy nkr dgtargjtdkgjc aekgkode pkcdey ekkr`dgjtdkg. Dg tma pjst
`aej`a, tma cjrha jg` rjpd` dgerajsas dg trj`a, raodttjgeas, jg` dgtargj-
tdkgjc gjgedjc stkws jerkss fkr`ars mjva faag j strkgh dgeagtdva nkr
aekgkode hrkwtm, gkt kgcy dg Ajst jg` Ukutm Jsdj fut jcsk dg Cjtdg
Joardej jg` Uuf-Ujmjrjg Jnrdej. Jg` rjpd` jg` sustjdga` aekgkode
hrkwtm dg savarjc ckw- jg` od``ca-dgekoa aekgkodas mjs faag staj`dcyjctardgh tma aekgkode wadhmts kn `dnnaragt rahdkgs dg tma wkrc` aekgkoy.
Udgea tma ajrcy :4=9s, savarjc dgtargjtdkgjc erdsas mjva ravajca` gaw
rdsbs jsskedjta` wdtm cjrha dgtargjtdkgjc ejpdtjc stkws, aekgkode fkkos
(Vadgmjrt jg` Vkhknn 69:9j), su``ag stkps(Ejcvk, Dzqudar`k, jg` Oaldj
(6990), jg` aekgkode fusts. Pma `aft erdsds dg Cjtdg Joardej dg tma
:4=9s, tma Oaxdek fjcjgea kn pjyoagts erdsds kn :440, tma Ajst Jsdj erdsds
kn :448, jg` tma Vussdjg Na`arjtdkg erdsds kn :44= jcc ug`arsekra tma
dopjet kn ejpdtjc stkws. Umkrt-taro ejpdtjc dgstkws mjva suppkrta`
Ktjvdjgk Ejgutk jg` Lustdg Tdnu Cdg
Dgtrk`uetdkg
Ktjvdjgk Ejgutk ds ^dea Yrasd`agt jg` Maj` kn tma Ykvarty Va`uetdkg jg` Aekgkode
Ojgjhaoagt Gatwkrb, Xkrc` Fjgb, jg` Lustdg Tdnu Cdg ds Emdan Aekgkodst jg` Uagdkr
^dea Yrasd`agt, @avackpoagt Aekgkodes, Xkrc` Fjgb.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
30/664
6 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
dgvastoagt jg` jeeacarjta` aekgkode hrkwtm, fut tmay mjva jcsk pksa`
prkfcaos nkr axemjgha rjta jg` jhhrahjta `aojg` ojgjhaoagt jt tmaekugtry cavac. Umjrp smkrt-taro kutstkws, dg ekgtrjst, pksa emjccaghas nkr
aekgkode stjfdcdty jt tma hckfjc-aekgkoy cavac.
Gkwmara mjva tma emjccaghas faag okra vdsdfca tmjg dg tma Qgdta`
Utjtas jg` dg ktmar mdhm-dgekoa aekgkodas jntar tma ekccjpsa kn tma
sufprdoa okrthjha ojrbat jg` dts spraj` tk ktmar gjgedjc ojrbats jg`
ekugtrdas. Pma erdsds mjs faag ugpraea`agta` dg dts krdhdgs jg` ugdqua dg
dts dgtagsdty. Dt krdhdgjta` dg j mdhm-dgekoa aekgkoy jg` spraj` rjpd`cy tk
tma rast kn tma wkrc` tmrkuhm gjgedjc jg` trj`a emjggacs. Pma erdsds ca` tkj >.1 pareagt njcc dg tma oa`djg H@Y hrkwtm rjta kn tma Hrkup kn Uavag
(H8) ekugtrdas fatwaag 6998 jg` 6994, jg` dt mjs mj` prktrjeta` annaets dg
savarjc ckw- jg` od``ca-dgekoa aekgkodas dg tma rast kn tma wkrc`.
Pma dgtagsdty kn tma erdsds mjs jcsk mdhmcdhmta` tma dofjcjgea fatwaag
tma `aptm jg` fraj`tm kn tma prkfcaos jg` tma dgjfdcdty kn trj`dtdkgjc
dgtargjtdkgjc ekkr`dgjtdkg oaemjgdsos tk ekgtjdg jg` raskcva tmao.
J` mke oaemjgdsos erajta` tk jvkd` `dsruptdkg kn tma hckfjc pjyoagts
systaoca` fy tma Q.U. Na`arjc Vasarva, tma Aurkpajg Eagtrjc Fjgb,
jg` tma eagtrjc fjgbs kn Emdgj, Ljpjg, jg` savarjc ktmar ekugtrdas
wara annaetdva dg jvartdgh j ekccjpsa kn tma dgtargjtdkgjc pjyoagt systao
jg` j `aapar hckfjc aekgkode raeassdkg. Fut tma axpardagea mjs cant
ojgy trajsury jg` eagtrjc fjgb knedjcs jrkug` tma wkrc` ekgearga`
tmjt tma gaw rdsbs mjva yat tk fa ekgstrjdga`.
Pma :9 ejsa stu`das dg tmds vkcuoa dccustrjta tma wd`a rjgha kn annaets
kn, jg` raspkgsas tk, tma hckfjc erdsds dg ckw- jg` od``ca-dgekoa aekgk-
odas. Xmdca tma ejsa stu`das `k gkt ekgstdtuta j stjtdstdejccy raprasagtjtdva
sjopca kn tma hckfa, tmay dccustrjta j frkj` rjgha kn axpardageas dg tma
wjba kn tma erdsds jg` hdva dgsdhmts dgtk fktm tma fagats jg` emjccaghas
kn hckfjcdzjtdkg. Pma usa kn j ekookg oatmk`kckhy dg prapjrdgh tma
ejsas ugquastdkgjfcy njedcdtjtas erkss-ekugtry ekopjrdskgs jg` macps
d`agtdny jrajs wmara okra stu`y ds gaa`a` tk dgerajsa kur ug`arstjg`dgh
kn tma eurragt prkfcaos kn, jg` prkspaets nkr, `avackpdgh ekugtrdas.
Pma Erdsds jg` Agsudgh Vaeassdkg
Js gkta` ajrcdar, tma sufprdoa okrthjha erdsds frkba kut dg tma Qgdta`
Utjtas jg` wjs trjgsodtta` rjpd`cy tk ktmar gjgedjc ojrbats dg tma Qgdta`
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
31/664
Dgtrk`uetdkg 5
Utjtas jg` ktmar j`vjgea` ekugtrdas. Dt trdhhara` j rjpd` `acavarjhdgh kn
gjgedjc jg` gkggjgedjc ros jg` mkusamkc`s, wmdem smjrpcy ra`uea`aekgkode jetdvdty `urdgh tma cjst qujrtar kn 6998 jg` tma rst mjcn kn 699=.
Pma trjgsodssdkg kn tma erdsds wkrc`wd`a keeurra` tmrkuhm fktm
gjgedjc jg` trj`a emjggacs. Pma gjgedjc emjggac wjs dopkrtjgt
gkt kgcy jokgh j`vjgea` aekgkodas fut jcsk dg skoa od``ca-dgekoa
ekugtrdas tmjt sunnara` jg jfrupt ravarsjc kn dgtargjtdkgjc ejpdtjc dgstkws.
Pma ravarsjc wjs dg`uea`, dg pjrt, fy j rusma` cdqud`jtdkg kn aoarhdgh-
ojrbat gjgedjc pksdtdkgs fy prdvjta gjgedjc nug`s `asparjtacy trydgh
tk oaat tmadr ecdagts cdqud`dty `aojg`s. Pmasa pkrtnkcdk smdnts trdhhara`j pcugha dg tma stkeb ojrbats kn savarjc aoarhdgh ojrbats (hura :.:)
jg` ca` tk smjrp `apraedjtdkgs kn tma axemjgha rjtas kn savarjc aoarhdgh
:441O
9:
899
>99
199
099
599
699
:99
9
dg`ax,
Ljg.
69:9?:99
:441O
98
:44>O
9:
:44>O
98
:448O
9:
:448O
98
:44=O
9:
:44=O
98
:444O
9:
:444O
98
6999O
9:
6999O
98
699:O
9:
699:O
98
6996O
9:
6996O
98
6995O
9:
6995O
98
6990O
9:
6990O
98
6991O
9:
6991O
98
699>O
9:
699>O
98
6998O
9:
6998O
98
699=O
9:
699=O
98
6994O
9:
6994O
98
69:9O
9:
69:9O
98
Jrhagtdgj Frjzdc Emdgj Bkraj, Vap.Dg`kgasdj Dg`dj
Ndhura :.:. Utkeb Ojrbat Dg`ax
Ukurea
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
32/664
0 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
aekgkodas (dgecu`dgh Frjzdc jg` Oaxdek) dg 699=. Ekkr`dgjta` jetdkg
fy eagtrjc fjgbs wjs erdtdejc nkr prasarvdgh tma nugetdkgdgh kn tmadgtargjtdkgjc pjyoagts systao jg` sokktmdgh tma j`lustoagt. Nkr
axjopca, dg 6998 jg` 699=, tma Q.U. Na`arjc Vasarva astjfcdsma` j systao
kn raedprkejc eurragey jhraaoagts dg ekkr`dgjtdkg wdtm ktmar eagtrjc
fjgbs tk j``rass tma hckfjc `dsruptdkg dg `kccjr nug`dgh ojrbats.
J smjrp njcc dg dgtargjtdkgjc trj`a stkws jnnaeta` jcc ekugtrdas dg tma
wkrc`. Jeekr`dgh tk raeagt astdojtas (Xkrc` Fjgb 69:9), hckfjc trj`a
vkcuoas nacc fy ::.> pareagt dg 6994 racjtdva tk 699= (hura :.6). Dg
hagarjc, ekugtrdas tmjt wara okra `apag`agt kg axtargjc ojrbats waradgdtdjccy okra jnnaeta` tmrkuhm tma trj`a emjggac fut wara jcsk jfca tk
rafkug` okra qudebcy.
Pma dopjet kn tma trj`a smkeb kg tma aekgkodas kn ckw- jg` od``ca-
dgekoa ekugtrdas vjrda` `apag`dgh kg wmatmar tma ekugtry wjs ojdgcy
jg axpkrtar kn ekook`dtdas (odgarjcs, kdc, jg` jhrdeucturjc prk`uets)
kr jg axpkrtar kn cjfkr-dgtagsdva ojgunjetura` hkk`s (js dg Ajst Jsdj
51
61
:1
1
1
:1
61
51
01
:44>O
9:
:44>O
98
:448O
9:
:44
8O98
:44=O
9:
:44=O
98
:444O
9:
:444O
98
6999O
9:
6999O
98
699:O
9:
699:O
98
6996O
9:
6996O
98
6995O
9:
699
5O98
6990O
9:
6990O
98
6991O
9:
6991O
98
699>O
9:
699>O
98
6998O
9:
699
8O98
699=O
9:
699=O
98
6994O
9:
6994O
98
69:9O
9:
69:9O
98
wkrc (Xkrc` Fjgb Hrkup oaofars) `avackpdgh ekugtrdas
mdhm-dgekoa ekugtrdas od ca-dgekoa ekugtrdas ckw-dgekoa ekugtrdas
%e
mj
gha
Ndhura :.6. Emjgha dg Axpkrt kcuoas kvar tma Yravdkus :6 Okgtms
Ukurea
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
33/664
Dgtrk`uetdkg 1
jg` Oaxdek). Dg tma rst ejsa, tma gahjtdva smkeb `d` gkt praedpdtjta
jg dooa`djta njcc dg aekgkode jetdvdty2 dg tma saekg` ejsa, cjyknns jg` jrjpd` `aecdga dg kutput qudebcy nkcckwa` tma njcc dg axtargjc `aojg`.
Kutput raspkgsas tk tma j`varsa axtargjc smkebs pksa` fy tma hckfjc
erdsds mjva faag qudta matarkhagakus (tjfca :.:). Pma mdhm-dgekoa ekug-
trdas, kwdgh prkfjfcy tk tmadr tdhmtcy dgtarekggaeta` gjgedjc ojrbats,
wara mdt tma mjr`ast, wdtm jg jvarjha njcc dg tma rjta kn H@Y hrkwtm kn 8.8
pareagtjha pkdgts. Od``ca-dgekoa aekgkodas nkcckwa`, pkstdgh jg jvar-
jha hrkwtm rjta `aecdga kn >.4 pareagtjha pkdgts. Jg` ckw-dgekoa ekug-
trdas sunnara` tma cajst, axpardagedgh j :.1-pareagtjha-pkdgt njcc dg H@Yhrkwtm. Aurkpa jg` Eagtrjc Jsdj jg` Cjtdg Joardej jg` tma Ejrdffajg
pksta` tma cjrhast `aecdgas dg hrkwtm (::.= jg` >.0 pareagtjha pkdgts,
raspaetdvacy), nkcckwa` fy Ajst Jsdj jg` Yjede.:Fut tma dsparsdkg dg par-
nkrojgea (oajsura` js tma stjg`jr` `avdjtdkg kn tma rjta kn hrkwtm kn
H@Y `dvd`a` fy tma oajg) jokgh od``ca- jg` aspaedjccy ckw-dgekoa
ekugtrdas wjs ouem mdhmar tmjg jokgh mdhm-dgekoa ekugtrdas.
Pma gjgedjc jg` aekgkode erdsds strueb `aapar dg ekugtrdas tmjt
mj` cjrha eurragt jeekugt `aedts js kn 6998.6Ekugtrdas wdtm eurragt
Pjfca :.:. Emjgha dg Vajc Hrkwtm Vjta fatwaag 6998 jg` 6994
Fy dgekoa cavac
Utjtdstde
Jcc
ekugtrdas H8
Mdhm-dgekoa
ekugtrdas
@avackpdgh
ekugtrdas
Od``ca-dgekoa
ekugtrdas
Ckw-dgekoa
ekugtrdas
Oa`djg 1.:8 >.16 >.46 5.46 >.:> :.11
Oajg 1.40 >.:= 8.85 1.59 >.4: :.04
Ut`. `av. 1.== :.0: 5.4> >.56 >.05 0.90
Kfs. :=5 8 0= :51 41 09
@avackpdgh ekugtrdas fy rahdkg
Utjtdstde
Ajst Jsdj
jg` Yjede
Aurkpa jg`
Eagtrjc
Jsdj
Cjtdg Joardej
jg` tma
Ejrdffajg
Od``ca Ajst
jg` Gkrtm
Jnrdej Ukutm Jsdj
Uuf-Ujmjrjg
Jnrdej
Oa`djg 5.=> 4.>5 >.04 9.>6 5.04 :.41
Oajg 1.69 ::.=: >.0: :.04 5.:4 6.14
Ut`. `av. 0.:1 8.48 5.5: 5.65 >.>4 1.0:
Kfs. := 60 6= :6 = 01
Ukurea
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
34/664
> Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
jeekugt hjps dg 6998 tmjt ojgjha` tk ckwar tmadr `aedts dg 6994 par-
nkroa` racjtdvacy pkkrcy ekopjra` tk tma rast kn tma ekugtrdas (tjfca :.6,tkp saetdkg)2 j twk-tjdca` oajgs tast dg`dejtas tmjt tma `dnnaragea ds
stjtdstdejccy sdhgdejgt jt : pareagt.
Dg skoa ejsas, kwdgh tk tma smjrp ravarsjc dg ejpdtjc stkws, tma emjgha
dg tma eurragt jeekugt fjcjgea fatwaag 6998 jg` 6994 jokugta` tk okra
tmjg 59 pareagtjha pkdgts kn H@Y. (Pma fkttko saetdkg kn tjfca :.6
smkws ekugtrdas tmjt axpardagea` tma cjrhast swdghs dg tmadr eurragt
jeekugts fatwaag 6998 jg` 6994, nrko aedt tk surpcus.) Jeekopjgydgh
tma smdnt dg tma eurragt jeekugt, kutput hrkwtm `aecdga` jfruptcy, wdtmAstkgdj, Cjtvdj, jg` Cdtmujgdj pkstdgh `aecdgas dg rajc hrkwtm kn jt cajst
69 pareagtjha pkdgts.
Qgeartjdgtdas Uurrkug`dgh tma Vaekvary
Xkrc` kutput ds prklaeta` tk hrkw fy 0.> pareagt dg 69:9 jntar njccdgh fy
9.> pareagt dg 6994 (DON 69:9j). Udodcjrcy, tmkuhm okra `rjojtdejccy,
Pjfca :.6. Eurragt Jeekugt jg` Hrkwtm Yarnkrojgea
Emjgha dg rajc hrkwtm fatwaag 6998 jg` 6994
Ekugtrdas wdtm j EJ-tk-H@Y rjtdk 39 dg
6998 jg` rjtdk dg 6998 3rjtdk dg 6994 Vast kn tma ekugtrdas
Oa`djg >.8= 0.01
Oajg 8.08 0.41
Ut`. `av. >.9= 1.1>
Kfs. 86 :::
Oajgs tast< t-stjtdstde ? 6.=4
Ekugtrdas tmjt axpardagea` j cjrha swdgh dg tma EJ fjcjgea, nrko aedt dg 6998 tk surpcus dg 6994
Ekugtry
Emjgha dg rajc hrkwtm
fatwaag 6998 jg` 6994
EJ-tk-H@Y
rjtdk dg 6998
EJ-tk-H@Y
rjtdk dg 6994
@dnnaragea fatwaag rjtdks
dg 6998 jg` dg 6994
Cjtvdj 68.44 66.55 4.00 5:.88
Astkgdj 6:.64 :8.=: 0.>9 66.0:
Deacjg` :6.00 :>.64 5.84 69.9=
Cdtmujgdj 60.=9 :0.1> 5.=6 :=.5=
Mughjry 8.59 >.=: 9.0: 8.6:
Ukurea
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
35/664
Dgtrk`uetdkg 8
wkrc` trj`a vkcuoa ds nkraejst tk rdsa fy ::.5 pareagt dg 69:9 jntar aecdg-
dgh fy 4 pareagt dg 6994. Pma prklaeta` hrkwtm rjta kn aoarhdgh-ojrbataekgkodas (>.= pareagt) ds strkgh, aspaedjccy dg Jsdj (4.6 pareagt), fut dt
ds wajb jokgh j`vjgea` aekgkodas (6.> pareagt) jg` aspaedjccy dg tma
aurk jraj (:.9 pareagt).
Uckwar aekgkode hrkwtm dg okst j`vjgea` ekugtrdas ds tma rasuct kn
kghkdgh `acavarjhdgh kn gjgedjc jg` gkggjgedjc ros jg` mkusa-
mkc`s, jg` kn gaw ekgeargs jfkut tma cavac jg` pjea kn dgerajsa dg tma
pufcde-`aft-tk-H@Y rjtdks dg savarjc j`vjgea` aekgkodas.
Pma hckfjc erdsds mjs ugekvara` tma vucgarjfdcdtdas kn tma dgtargjtdkgjcgjgedjc systao. Dg tma Qgdta` Utjtas, tma fjgbdgh systao mjs stjfdcdza`
fut era`dt stkws mjva gkt raekvara`. Jg` raeagt `avackpoagts dg Aurkpa
ekgeargdgh tma sustjdgjfdcdty kn tma skvaradhg `aft kn savarjc ekugtrdas
ca` tk gjgedjc turokdc dg tma sprdgh kn 69:9 jg` tk j smjrp dgerajsa
dg tma skvaradhg hkvargoagt fkg` spraj`s kn savarjc ekugtrdas (saa DON
69:9j, hura 5). Pk `jta, tma emjccagha mjs faag oat sueeassnuccy fy
tma ekkr`dgjta` raspkgsas kn ekugtrdas dg tma rahdkg jg` dgtargjtdkgjc
gjgedjc dgstdtutdkgs, fut tma aurk erdsds ds jg dg`dejtkr kn aoarhdgh
hckfjc gjgedjc jg` aekgkode emjccaghas tk tma ejpjedty nkr ekkr`dgjta`
jetdkg fy tma dgtargjtdkgjc ekoougdty.
Pma hkvargoagt gjgeas kn savarjc j`vjgea` aekgkodas mjva ecajrcy
wkrsaga`. Pma ojdg rajskg ds tma njcc dg tjx ravagua ejusa` fy tma `aecdga
kn kutput kr tma sckw`kwg kn aekgkode hrkwtm. Ndsejc `aedts jg`
`aft-tk-H@Y rjtdks mjva skjra` tk wkrrdskoa cavacs, jg` dg skoa ejsas,
skvaradhg `aft ekgeargs mjva rajema` pardckuscy rdsby cavacs (Vadgmjrt jg`
Vkhknn 69:9f). Pma wajb stjta kn savarjc aekgkodas ecajrcy cdodts tma ejpje-
dty kn trajsurdas tk `rjstdejccy ra`uea sejc `aedts wdtmkut lakpjr`dzdgh
aekgkode raekvary. Fut cjrha sejc `aedts kvar tma oa`duo taro `k gkt
agekurjha gaw dgvastoagt jg` aekgkode hrkwtm. Pma emjccagha kn rastkr-
dgh pufcde gjgeas tk aqudcdfrduo wdcc gkt fa oat fy smkrt-taro `aedt
ra`uetdkg oajsuras jckga2 j sueeassnuc ckwardgh kn sejc `aedts, jg` kn
`aft-tk-H@Y rjtdks, jcsk raqudras rankros jdoa` jt ugcajsmdgh prdvjta sae-
tkr dgvastoagt jg` aekgkode hrkwtm kvar tma oa`duo taro (Ejcvk 69:9).Xmdca tma raekvary dg aoarhdgh-ojrbat aekgkodas ds strkgh, tma
ckw-dgtarast-rjta pkcdey pursua` fy tma ojdg eagtrjc fjgbs dg tma wkrc`
jcsk mjs dopcdejtdkgs nkr ejpdtjc stkws tk, jg` tma sustjdgjfdcdty kn
aekgkode hrkwtm dg, tmasa aekgkodas. Ckw dgtargjtdkgjc dgtarast
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
36/664
= Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
rjtas agekurjha ejpdtjc dgstkws dg pursudt kn mdhmar ydac`s dg aoarhdgh
aekgkodas jg` pksa suem ekopcdejtdkgs js rajc axemjgha rjta jppraedj-tdkg, rjpd` hrkwtm kn era`dt tk tma prdvjta saetkr, jg`, kntag, j smjrp rdsa
dg jssat prdeas (DON 69:9f).
Oa`duo-Paro Yrkspaets
Hckfjcdzjtdkg mjs kpaga` up kppkrtugdtdas tk gjrrkw tma par ejpdtj
dgekoa hjp fatwaag ckw- jg` od``ca-dgekoa ekugtrdas jg` j`vjgea`
aekgkodas. Ukoa ekugtrdas mjva sueeassnuccy axpckdta` tmasa kppkrtugd-tdas wmdca ktmars mjva gkt. Oaofars kn tma rst hrkup mjva sustjdga`
mdhm rjtas kn dgvastoagt jg` prk`uetdvdty doprkvaoagt kvar `aej`as2
oaofars kn tma saekg` hrkup mjva gkt. Jctmkuhm gk kga sat kn pkcdedas
jg` dgstdtutdkgs ejg hujrjgtaa tmjt j ekugtry wdcc njcc dg tma rst kr
saekg` hrkup, tma jfdcdty tk axpckdt kppkrtugdtdas `kas gkt `avackp rjg-
`kocy. Pma ekugtrdas tmjt sueeaa` jra tmksa tmjt jra jfca tk d`agtdny jg`
jssass tmadr prkfcaos jg` tk nkroucjta sueeassnuc strjtahdas nkr skcvdgh
tmaojg` tmjt ekrraet pkcdey odstjbas wmag tmay faekoa avd`agt.
Pma jssassoagt kn tma dopjet kn tma hckfjc erdsds kn 699894 jg` tma
ejsa stu`das dg tmds vkcuoa knnar skoa hagarjc casskgs nkr okst aoarhdgh
aekgkodas. Pmasa casskgs jra fjsa` kg tma wd`a rjgha kn axpardageas
nkcckwdgh tma erdsdskg tma njet tmjt tma njcc dg H@Y mjs faag ouem
mdhmar dg skoa ekugtrdas tmjg dg ktmars, jg` tmjt tma raeassdkg mjs faag
ckghar jg` tma raekvary wajbar dg skoa ekugtrdas tmjg dg ktmars. Jokgh
tma ojgy njetkrs tmjt mjva ekgtrdfuta` tk tmasa `dnnarageas dg parnkr-
ojgea, kga stjg`s kut< ekugtrdas tmjt mj` ckw axtargjc vucgarjfdcdty
jt tma kgsat kn tma erdsds sunnara`, kg jvarjha, sojccar `aecdgas dg kutput
tmjg tma rast. Jctmkuhm oajsurdgh vucgarjfdcdty ds j skpmdstdejta` ug`ar-
tjbdgh (DON 69:9f), strjdhmtnkrwjr` dg`dejtkrssuem js tma eurragt
jeekugt fjcjgea jg` `koastde era`dt hrkwtmprkvd`a j skcd` stjrtdgh
pkdgt. Pma ejsa stu`das dg tmds vkcuoa ecajrcy dccustrjta tma dopkrtjgea kn
tmasa dg`dejtkrs.
Pmds vkcuoa d`agtdas tmraa ojdg casskgs kr tmaoas tmjt ejg fahcajga` nrko tma axpardagea kn tma :9 ekugtrdas stu`da`9 pareagt kn hckfjc kutput. Jg avag okra prk-
gkugea` emjgha aoarhas dn wa usa ekgstjgt puremjsdgh pkwar pjrdty
(YYY) `kccjrs dgstaj`< H8 ekugtrdas smjra kn hckfjc H@Y wjs jfkut
19 pareagt dg :449, fut fy 699= tmadr smjra mj` njccag tk rkuhmcy
09 pareagt.
Qg`arcydgh tmds emjgha dg smjra ds tma njet tmjt `avackpdgh ekugtrdas
mjva faag hrkwdgh kg jvarjha jt j njstar pjea tmjg mdhm-dgekoa ekug-
trdas dg tma pjst `aej`a. Pma `dnnaragea wd`aga` kvar tma pardk`, jvarjh-
dgh 5.8 pareagtjha pkdgts. Avary rahdkg kn tma `avackpdgh wkrc` hraw
njstar tmjg tma mdhm-dgekoa ekugtrdas. Nkeusdgh kg tma Hrkup kn Pwagty
(H69) avackpdgh ekugtrdaswmdem raprasagt =9 pareagt kn hckfjc H@Y
dg ekgstjgt Q.U. `kccjrs, jg` 81 pareagt kn hckfjc H@Y dg ekgstjgt YYY
dgtargjtdkgjc `kccjrs nkr :449699=jg` `dsjhhrahjtdgh tma ekgtrdfu-
tdkg kn `avackpdgh jg` `avackpa` ekugtrdas tk hckfjc hrkwtm, j strdbdgh
pdetura aoarhas< dg :449, H69 `avackpdgh ekugtrdas prk`uea` cass
tmjg :: pareagt kn hckfjc H@Y2 fy 699=, tmadr smjra mj` rajema` jcokst:8 pareagt.
Ecajrcy, wmdca tma fucb kn tma wkrc`s H@Y ekgtdguas tk fa prk-
`uea` dg H8 ekugtrdas, tma hckfjc aekgkode pkwar fjcjgea ds emjghdgh
rjpd`cy.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
38/664
:9 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
Pjfca :.5. Pma @dstrdfutdkg kn Hckfjc Aekgkode Jetdvdty
Umjra dg wkrc` H@Y
H@Y dg ekgstjgt 6999 Q.U. kccjrs H@Y dg ekgstjgt 6991 YYY dgtargjtdkgjc kccjrs
Tajr H8
H69
`av.
H69
mdhm H69 Xkrc` H8
H69
`av.
H69
mdhm H69 Xkrc`
:449 >8.4: :9.8> 89.40 =:.89 :99.99 19.10 69.>0 15.4= 80.>: :99.99
:441 >>.86 ::.>9 89.:6 =:.86 :99.99 04.4= 6:.5> 15.=> 81.66 :99.99
6999 >1.05 :6.08 >=.40 =:.0: :99.99 0=.>= 66.>4 16.>5 81.55 :99.99
6991 >6.>0 :0.0: >>.5> =9.88 :99.99 00.=> 61.=: 0=.== 80.>4 :99.99
699= 14.40 :>.06 >5.85 =9.:1 :99.99 0:.>: 6=.>4 01.1= 80.68 :99.99
H@Y hrkwtm
H@Y dg ekgstjgt 6999 Q.U. kccjrs H@Y dg ekgstjgt 6991 YYY dgtargjtdkgjc kccjrs
Yardk` H8
H69
`av.
H69
mdhm H69 Xkrc` H8
H69
`av.
H69
mdhm H69 Xkrc`
:44940 6.94 5.00 6.6: 6.5= 6.50 6.9> 6.5= 6.6> 6.64 6.94
:44144 6.89 0.54 6.88 5.99 5.:9 6.=5 0.06 6.49 5.55 5.50
699990 6.9= 1.01 6.69 6.86 6.=> 6.:: 1.4> 6.64 5.05 5.18
69919= :.=6 8.89 :.45 6.44 5.61 :.=0 8.4> 6.9: 0.:: 0.59
Ekgtrdfutdkg tk wkrc` H@Y hrkwtm
H@Y dg ekgstjgt 6999 Q.U. kccjrs H@Y dg ekgstjgt 6991 YYY dgtargjtdkgjc kccjrs
Yardk` H8
H69
`av.
H69
mdhm H69 Xkrc` H8
H69
`av.
H69
mdhm H69 Xkrc`
:44940 :.0: 9.5= :.18 :.41 6.50 :.90 9.19 :.66 :.8: 6.94
:44144 :.=9 9.16 :.45 6.01 5.:9 :.09 9.4> :.11 6.1: 5.50
699990 :.51 9.89 :.1: 6.6: 6.=> :.9: :.54 :.:4 6.1= 5.18
69919= :.:0 :.:5 :.6= 6.0: 5.61 9.=6 6.94 9.4= 5.98 0.59
Ukurea
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
39/664
Dgtrk`uetdkg ::
Ejcvk, Hudccarok J., Jcaljg`rk Dzqudar`k, jg` Cuds-Nargjg`k Oaldj. 6990. Kg tma
Aopdrdes kn Uu``ag Utkps< Pma Vacavjgea kn Fjcjgea-Umaat Annaets. Xkrbdgh
Yjpar :9169, Gjtdkgjc Furaju kn Aekgkode Vasajrem, Ejofrd`ha, OJ.
DON (Dgtargjtdkgjc Okgatjry Nug`). 69:9j. Xkrc` Aekgkode Kutckkb< Qp`jta.
DON, Xjsmdghtkg, @E.
. 69:9f. Mkw @d` Aoarhdgh Ojrbats Ekpa dg tma Erdsds; mttp:1:9.p`n.
Vadgmjrt, Ejroag O., jg` Baggatm U. Vkhknn. 69:9j. Pma Jntarojtm kn Ndgjgedjc
Erdsas.Joardejg Aekgkode Vavdaw44 (Ojy)< 0>>86.
. 69:9f. Hrkwtm dg j Pdoa kn @aft. Joardejg Aekgkode Vavdaw :99 (6))2 Harjr`k
Asqudvac (Oaxdek, em. =)2 Ojedal Brzjb jg` Bjspjr Vdemtar (Ykcjg`, em. :9)2 Arde Ca
Fkrhga jg` Umarycc Gjodghdt (Ymdcdppdgas, em. 4)2 @aapjb Odsmrj (Atmdkpdj, em. 1)2
Hjccdgj J. ^dgeacatta, Jcvjrk Ojgkac, Jr`k Mjgsskg, jg` Cuds Budls (Emdgj, em. 0)2 jg`
Edmjg Tjcdg jg` Ojrb Vkcjg` Pmkojs (Purbay, em. ::). Pmasa ekgtrdfutdkgs jra
hrjtanuccy jebgkwca`ha`. Pmds wkrb mjs jcsk fagata` nrko tma ekgtrdfutdkg kn Gj`dr
Okmjooa`, ek-caj`ar kn tma prklaet. Gj`aao Qc Mjqua (ekgsuctjgt) oj`a sdhgdejgt
ekgtrdfutdkgs tk tma pjpar jg` Cuds Uarvg oj`a vary macpnuc jg` dgsdhmtnuc eko-oagts. Pma pjpar fagata` jcsk nrko `dseussdkgs kn jcc pjpars dgecu`a` dg tmds fkkb
`urdgh j saodgjr mac` jt tma Xkrc` Fjgb dg Xjsmdghtkg, @E, Lucy :469, 69:9. Qtbu
Buoru prkvd`a` annaetdva jg` jfca rasajrem jssdstjgea.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
42/664
:0 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
pkcdey ojbars mjva nkeusa` kg eurragt smkrt-taro `avackpoagts, kg
mkw tk stkp tma gjgedjc emjks jg` aekgkode ekccjpsa jg` dgdtdjta jraekvary, jg` kg mkw tk `ajc wdtm tma dooa`djta aekgkode jg` skedjc
`dsruptdkgs ejusa` fy tma erdsds. Ouem cass jttagtdkg mjs faag pjd` tk tma
oa`duo- jg` ckgh-taro dopcdejtdkgs kn tma erdsds nkr hrkwtm, pkvarty
ra`uetdkg, jg`, okra frkj`cy, tma `avackpoagt kn tma ckw- jg` od``ca-
dgekoa `avackpdgh ekugtrdas. Pma prklaet tmjt hjva rdsa tk tmds vkcuoa
wjs `asdhga` tk cc tmds hjp tmrkuhm j guofar kn ekugtry stu`das.
Pma hkjc kn tma stu`das wjs gkt tk nkraejst kr pra`det hrkwtm jg`
aekgkode `avackpoagts dg tma ekugtrdas stu`da`, fut rjtmar tk ckkb jtmkw tma oa`duo- tk ckgh-taro prkspaets kn hrkwtm dg `avackpdgh ekug-
trdas ojy fa jnnaeta` fy tma wjy tma erdsds jg` tma raekvary pcjy kut jg`
fy tma pksterdsds hckfjc ekg`dtdkgs. Qg`arstjg`dgh tmasa njetkrs dg j naw
ekugtrdas ejg macp d`agtdny pkcdey oajsuras tmjt ojy macp suppkrt j
okra dgecusdva jg` sustjdgjfca hrkwtm pjtmj suflaet tmjt ds kn hrajt
dgtarast tk tma Xkrc` Fjgb jg` tma `avackpoagt ekoougdty jt cjrha.
Pma prklaet wjs dgtag`a` tk axpckra tmasa dssuas tmrkuhm :9 ekugtry
ejsa stu`das. Pma ekugtrdas dgecu`a< (ckw-dgekoa) Atmdkpdj jg` ^datgjo2
(ckw- tk od``ca-dgekoa) Emdgj, Dg`dj, jg` tma Ymdcdppdgas2 jg` (uppar-
od``ca-dgekoa) Frjzdc, Ojcjysdj, Oaxdek, Ykcjg`, jg` Purbay. Uacaeta`
ekugtrdas jra okra dgtahrjta` wdtm mdhm-dgekoa ekugtrdas tmrkuhm trj`a
dg ojgunjeturas jg` gjgedjc stkws, jg` tmay jra gadtmar ekook`dty
`apag`agt gkr ojlkr kdc prk`uears. Xmdca tmds sjopca kn :9 ekugtrdas ds
gkt stjtdstdejccy raprasagtjtdva kn tma hrkup kn jcc `avackpdgh ekugtrdas, dt
dgecu`as ekugtrdas nrko tma nucc rjgha kn dgekoa cavacs jg` j vjrdaty kn
rahdkgjc axpardageas kn trjgsodssdkg kn tma dopjet kn tma erdsds.
Pma ekugtry stu`das stjrt fy ravdawdgh tma hrkwtm axpardagea `urdgh
tma praerdsds fkko pardk` tk rjw casskgs jg` dopcdejtdkgs nkr tma oa`duo
taro. @urdgh tmds pardk`, hckfjc ekg`dtdkgs, aspaedjccy dg tma gjgedjc sae-
tkr, mj` j cjrha dopjet kg hrkwtm dg `avackpdgh ekugtrdas. Qg`arstjg`dgh
mkw tmasa hckfjc njetkrs dopjeta` `avackpdgh ekugtrdas wdcc macp ug`ar-
stjg` jg` jssass mkw nutura emjghas ojy dopjet hrkwtm js wacc. Pmay
prkeaa` tk jgjcyza tma dooa`djta dopjet kn tma hckfjc erdsds kg tma `avac-kpdgh ekugtrdas, tmadr pkcdey raspkgsas, jg` tmadr raekvary. Pmds wdcc jcsk
macp rjw skoa ekgecusdkgs jg` dopcdejtdkgs jfkut avackpoagts urdgh
tma erdsds tmjt ojy mjva jg dopjet dg tma oa`duo taro. Ndgjccy, tma stu`das
ojba prklaetdkgs kn oa`duo-taro hrkwtm fjsa` kg jg dccustrjtdva hckfjc
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
43/664
Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas :1
seagjrdk jg` jssass mkw tmasa prkspaets ojy fa jnnaeta` fy tma erdsds. Dg
tmds wkrb tma nkeus wjs kg jvarjha H@Y hrkwtm, jg` tma stu`das axpckradssuas kn hrkwtm vkcjtdcdty jg` tma dopcdejtdkgs kn ugeartjdgty jfkut tma
pkssdfca jctargjtdva pjtms kn raekvary nrko tma erdsds. Dg ojgy ekugtrdas,
hrkwtm vkcjtdcdty fankra tma erdsds wjs mdhm, jg` dt wkuc` fa kn dgtarast tk
axpckra wmatmar suem vkcjtdcdty wkuc` fa dgerajsa` kr ra`uea` jntar tma
erdsds, fut tmasa dssuas wara faykg` tma sekpa kn tma stu`y.
Pma Yraerdsds Fkko< Casskgs jg` Dopcdejtdkgs nkrOa`duo-Paro Hrkwtm
Pma ravdaw kn axpardagea fankra tma hckfjc erdsds ds dgtag`a` tk prkokta
ug`arstjg`dgh kn mkw hckfjc aekgkode ekg`dtdkgs jnnaeta` hrkwtm dg
`avackpdgh ekugtrdas fankra tma erdsds jg` `rjw usanuc casskgs jfkut tma
dopcdejtdkgs kn emjgha` hckfjc ekg`dtdkgs jntar tma erdsds. Kur rasucts
jg` jgjcysds jra fjsa` kg twk skureas. Ndrst ds j erkss-ekugtry jgjcysds kn
tma axpardagea kn j sjopca kn jfkut 10 `avackpdgh ekugtrdas, nkr wmdem
wa mjva ekgsdstagt `jtj kg tma racavjgt vjrdjfcas. Pma saekg` skurea ds j
sat kn :9 ekugtry ejsa stu`das, dgecu`a` dg tmds vkcuoa, tmjt trjea tma
aekgkodas fankra, `urdgh, jg` jntar tma erdsds.
Aekgkode Hrkwtm
Pma pardk` dooa`djtacy prdkr tk tma kutfrajb kn tma sufprdoa erdsds kn
699=94 (rkuhmcy 699598) wjs kga kn rjpd` hckfjc hrkwtm jg` cjrha
ejpdtjc stkws nrko tma j`vjgea` tk tma aoarhdgh ekugtrdas. Xa ejcc tmds
tma fkko pardk`. @urdgh tma prafkko pardk` (:4486996), twk erd-
sas jnnaeta` jcokst jcc ekugtrdastma Ajst Jsdj erdsds kn :4484= jg`
tma taemgkckhy erdsds kn 699:.
Nkr tma cjrhar sjopca kn 10 `avackpdgh ekugtrdas, tma jeeacarjtdkg kn
jetujc H@Y hrkwtm nrko tma prafkko tk tma fkko pardk` wjs 6.95.5
pareagtjha pkdgts, `apag`dgh kg wmatmar kga usas j sdopca jvarjha, tma
oa`djg, kr j wadhmta` jvarjha (tjfca 6.:).:Pma njstar-tmjg-jvarjha jeeacarj-
tdkg dg Dg`dj jg` Emdgj, jg` tmadr cjrha wadhmt, rasuct dg jg dgerajsa kn tmawadhmta` jvarjha H@Y hrkwtm nrko 0 pareagt urdgh :4486996 tk 8.6 par-
eagt urdgh 699598. Pma axecusdkg kn tma tmraa Ajst Jsdjg ekugtrdas (Dg`k-
gasdj, Ojcjysdj, jg` Pmjdcjg`), wmdem wara mjr`ast mdt fy tma :4484= Ajst
Jsdj erdsds, `kas gkt emjgha tma pdetura fut ojbas tma hrkwtm jeeacarjtdkg
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
44/664
Pjfca 6.:. H@Y Hrkwtm `urdgh tma Yraerdsds Fkko Yardk`
Ekugtrdas
H@Y hrkwtm (%) Yktagtdjc
:4486996 699598 699>98
Emjgha
(699598/:44896) :4486996 6995
Ujopca 10 `avackpdgh ekugtrdas
Udopca jvarjha 5.1 1.1 >.5 6.: 5.= 1.
Oa`djg 5.> 1.8 >.5 6.6 5.= 1
Xadhmta` jvarjha 0.9 8.6 8.4 5.5 0.0 >
Xadhmta` jvarjha (axecu`dgh AJ-5
ekugtrdas)
0.6 8.0 =.: 5.6 0.> >.
Xadhmta` jvarjha (AJ-5 ekugtrdas) :.5 1.> 1.> 0.5 6.0 1
Ujopca :9 ekugtry ejsa stu`das
Udopca jvarjha 0.6 >.= 8.0 6.> 0.8 >
Oa`djg 5.> >.0 >.0 6.4 0.0 1.
Xadhmta` jvarjha 1.9 8.8 =.1 6.8 1.5 8.
Frjzdc 6.9 5.= 0.> :.= 6.0 5.
Emdgj =.0 ::.9 :6.5 6.> =.8 :9
Atmdkpdj 5.0 =.4 ::.9 1.1 0.0 =
Dg`dj 1.: =.4 4.0 5.= 1.= =.
Ojcjysdj 5.5 >.9 >.: 6.8 0.0 1.
Oaxdek 5.= 5.5 0.9 9.1 5.0 6.
Ymdcdppdgas 5.5 1.= >.5 6.0 5.= 1Ykcjg` 5.4 1.: >.0 :.6 0.5 0
Purbay 6.6 >.4 1.= 0.8 6.= 1
^datgjo >.> =.: =.0 :.1 >.8 8.
Ukurea
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
45/664
Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas :8
jppajr skoawmjt wajbar kg jvarjha. Nkr tma sojccar hrkup kn :9 ekugtrdas,
tma wadhmta` jetujc H@Y hrkwtm jvarjha dgerajsa` nrko 1 pareagt tk8.8 pareagt, wmdca tma oa`djg dgerajsa` nrko 5.> pareagt tk >.0 pareagt.
Xmag usdgh j oajsura kn pktagtdjc H@Y hrkwtm, astdojta` usdgh jg MY
(Mk`rdeb-Yrasektt) ctar,6tma hrkwtm jeeacarjtdkg nkr tma :9 ekugtrdas wjs
jfkut :.8 pareagtjha pkdgts, kr jfkut mjcn tma jetujc H@Y hrkwtm jeeacarj-
tdkg. Jcc ekugtrdas axpardagea` hrkwtm jeeacarjtdkgs, wdtm tma gktjfca
axeaptdkg kn Oaxdek. Pma jeeacarjtdkg dg pktagtdjc kutput hrkwtm dg Ykcjg`
wjs dgsdhgdejgt.
Nkr tma 10 ekugtrdas, jetujc H@Y hrkwtm wjs jfkut 9.1 pareagtjhapkdgt mdhmar tmjg pktagtdjc hrkwtm `urdgh 699598.5Dg tma ejsa kn tma
:9 ekugtrdas stu`da`, jcc ekugtrdas wara axpardagedgh jetujc H@Y hrkwtm
hrajtar tmjg pktagtdjc fy j ojrhdg kn fatwaag 9.0 pareagtjha pkdgt
(Frjzdc, Oaxdek, jg` ^datgjo) jg` :.6 pareagtjha pkdgts (Purbay). Fut
tkwjr` tma ag` kn tma fkko pardk`, 699>98, tma ojrhdg fatwaag jetujc
jg` pktagtdjc faekoas jfkut kufca tmjt nkr tma 699598 pardk` jvarjha
nkr okst ekugtrdas, rjghdgh nrko 9.> pareagtjha pkdgt (Ojcjysdj) tk
6.1 pareagtjha pkdgts (Emdgj). Jg axeaptdkg ds Purbay, wmdem axpard-
agea` j cjrha `rkp dg jetujc kutput fackw pktagtdjc.
Pma ekopjrdskg kn dg`dvd`ujc ekugtry H@Y hrkwtm kvar tma twk
pardk`s:4486996 jg` 699598smkws ojgy ejsas kn parsdstagt
hrkwtm< mdhm hrkwtm rjtas ekgtdgua` tk fa strkgh (Okzjofdqua) fatwaag
pardk`s jg` avag jeeacarjta` (Emdgj jg` ^datgjo), wmdca cjrha gahjtdva
hrkwtm rjtas parsdsta` (\dofjfwa). Fut hrkwtm rjtas smkw gk parsdstagea
kg jvarjha jg` axmdfdt oajg ravarsdkg.0Pmds najtura ejg fa axpcjdga` fy
axkhagkus smkebs, kwdgh tk taros kn trj`a, hckfjc aekgkode ekg`dtdkgs,
kr d`dksygerjtde `koastde eyecdejc njetkrs jg` smkebs.1Kga suem sdtujtdkg
ds erdsds nkcckwa` fy raekvary, js dg tmraa Ajst Jsdjg ekugtrdas (Dg`kgasdj,
Ojcjysdj, jg` Pmjdcjg`) raekvardgh nrko tma savara erdsds kn :4484=.
Ekgvarsacy, tmara jra ejsas kn `koastde fusdgass eyecas wmara tma aekg-
koy wjs kparjtdgh jt kr jfkva dts pktagtdjc hrkwtm rjta, mdttdgh ejpjedty
ekgstrjdgts jg` sckwdgh hrkwtm. Pmds wjs tma ejsa dg Purbay, wmara j pajb
4 pareagt H@Y hrkwtm rjta `urdgh 699091 wjs `aeacarjtdgh fy 699>98.Dg Dg`dj, hrkwtm wjs sckwdgh fy 6998 jntar dt rajema` mdhms kn 4.1:9.9
pareagt `urdgh 69919> (hura 6.:). Atmdkpdj jg` ^datgjo wara jcsk
aglkydgh mdhm hrkwtm rjtas prdkr tk tma erdsds jg` smkwa` sdhgs kn
aekgkode kvarmajtdgh jg` j cdbacy `kwgwjr` j`lustoagt dg hrkwtm.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
46/664
:= Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
Hrkwtm @aekopksdtdkgs. Utjg`jr` `aekopksdtdkgs kn jetujc H@Y
hrkwtm fy gjc `aojg` ekopkgagts smkw j hagarjcdza` dgerajsa dg tma
ekgtrdfutdkg kn dgvastoagt `aojg` tk H@Y hrkwtmnrko jg jvarjha
kn 6961 pareagt urdgh :44896 tk 5101 pareagt urdgh 699598.>Fut
tmara ds j hrajt vjrdaty kn axpardageas jokgh tma :9 ekugtrdas stu`da`< jg
dgerajsa nrko j gahjtdva tk j cjrha pksdtdva ekgtrdfutdkg kn dgvastoagt
hrkwtm nkr Frjzdc, Ojcjysdj, jg` Purbay2 j parsdstagtcy ckw ekgtrdfutdkg
dg fktm pardk`s nkr tma Ymdcdppdgas (1= pareagt)2 j stjfca ekgtrdfutdkg
nkr Oaxdek (50 pareagt)2 jg` j cjrha `aecdga dg tma ejsa kn Atmdkpdj. Kg
tma ktmar mjg`, gk hagarjc pjttarg ds avd`agt dg tma ekgtrdfutdkgs kn
`koastde ekgsuoptdkg jg` gat axpkrts tk hrkwtm, wdtm j hrajt vjrdaty
kn ekugtry axpardageas. Fut Emdgj ds gktjfca, js dt smkws fktm j `rj-
ojtde njcc dg tma ekgtrdfutdkg kn `koastde `aojg` (nrko 1= pareagt tk
:5 pareagt) jg` rdsa dg gat axpkrts (nrko 1 pareagt tk 54 pareagt). Pmaejsa kn tma Ymdcdppdgas ds sdodcjr fut cass axtraoa. Jt tma ktmar ag` kn
tma spaetruo jra Atmdkpdj jg` Oaxdek, wmdem sjw mdhm gahjtdva ekgtrd-
futdkgs kn gat axpkrts dg fktm pardk`s, jg` Purbay, wmdem sjw gahjtdva
ekgtrdfutdkgs kgcy `urdgh tma fkko.
Ndhura 6.:. Axeass kn Jetujc H@Y Hrkwtm kvar Yktagtdjc H@Y Hrkwtm
Ukurea.:1
0.:9
6.91
9
6.91
0.:9
>.:1
6998699>6991699069956996699:6999
pareagt
Frjzdc Atmdkpdj Dg`dj ^datgjo
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
47/664
Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas :4
Xa gkw turg tk tma rkca kn njvkrjfca hckfjc aekgkode ekg`dtdkgs
dg taros kn cjrha stkws kn ejpdtjc jg` ckwar ekst kn ejpdtjc, mdhmar eko-ok`dty prdeas, okra trj`a, jg` cjrhar raodttjgeas jg` mkw tmay ekgtrdf-
uta` tk tmds hrkwtm parnkrojgea. Pma casskgs wa ejg `rjw nrko tmds
axpardagea wdcc fa macpnuc nkr jssassdgh tma dopcdejtdkgs nkr `avackpdgh
ekugtrdas kn emjgha` hckfjc ekg`dtdkgs jntar tma erdsds.
Ndgjgedjc Emjggac. Nkr j vjrdaty kn rajskgs, hckfjc ekg`dtdkgs dg gjgedjc
ojrbats ajsa` ekgsd`arjfcy nkr `avackpdgh ekugtrdas `urdgh 699598.8
Dg gkodgjc taros, ydac`s kg :9-yajr Q.U. hkvargoagt fkg`s nacc nrko jgjvarjha kn 1.1 pareagt `urdgh :4486996 tk 0.0 pareagt `urdgh 699598,
jg` nrko 1.: pareagt tk 0.9 pareagt dg tma aurk jraj. Dg rajc taros, ydac`s
`aecdga` nrko 5.6 pareagt tk :.1:.= pareagt wmag ekgsuoar prdea dg`ax
(EYD) dgstjtdkg ds usa`, fut fy cass dn ekra dgstjtdkg ds usa` (j aecdga nrko
5.: pareagt tk 6.0 pareagt kg Q.U. fkg`s).
Jt tma sjoa tdoa, gjgedjc dggkvjtdkgs axpjg`a` rjpd`cy jg` rahu-
cjtkry kvarsdhmt ckksaga` dg j`vjgea` ekugtry eagtars. Pma smj`kw
fjgbdgh systao axpjg`a` rjpd`cy wdtm tma usa kn saeurdtdzjtdkg jg`
`ardvjtdvas prk`uets. @jtj nrko tma Fjgb nkr Dgtargjtdkgjc Uattcaoagts
smkw dgtargjtdkgjc era`dt axpjg`dgh jt 6: pareagt par yajr `urdgh
699698, twdea tma rjta kn hrkwtm kn hckfjc H@Y jg` twdea tma hrkwtm
rjta dg tma pravdkus `aej`a.
Mkw d` emjghas dg hckfjc gjgedjc ekg`dtdkgs ekgtrdfuta tk tma jeeac-
arjtdkg kn aekgkode hrkwtm dg avackpdgh ekugtrdas urdgh 699598; Pma
jgswar tk tmds quastdkg ds gkt strjdhmtnkrwjr` nkr jt cajst tmraa rajskgs.
Ndrst, `avackpdgh ekugtrdas dopcaoagta` j wd`a rjgha kn rankros
kvar tma pravdkus `aej`a, aspaedjccy dg tma wjba kn tma Ajst Jsdj erdsds.
Pmds dgecu`a` cdfarjcdzjtdkg jg` fattar rahucjtdkg kn fjgbdgh saetkrs
jg` stkeb ojrbats, jg` dgerajsa` kpaggass tk nkradhg ejpdtjc. Ukoa kn
tmasa rankros wara prkopta` fy pravdkus erdsas kr cajrgdgh nrko tma
axpardageas kn ktmar ekugtrdas. Fut skoa wara prkopta` fy tma okra
fagdhg hckfjc gjgedjc agvdrkgoagt dtsacn. Pmarankra, dt ds `dneuct tk
`dsagtjghca tma `koastde nrko tma axtargjc njetkrs dg wmjt wjs kfsarva`dg taros kn dgerajsa` gjgedjc dgtaroa`djtdkg jg` emajpar jg` fattar
jeeass tk ejpdtjc.
Uaekg`, tmara ds kfvdkuscy jg dgtarjetdkg fatwaag hckfjc gjgedjc
ekg`dtdkgs jg` aekgkode jg` gjgedjc pkcdedas jg` `avackpoagts dg
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
48/664
69 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
`avackpdgh ekugtrdas. Nkr dgstjgea, tma mdhm sjvdgh rjtas dg ojgy `avac-
kpdgh ekugtrdas, pjrtdeucjrcy Emdgj, jg` tmadr ojerkaekgkode pkcdedasjnnaet hckfjc sjvdghs jg` ojerk dofjcjgeas. Pmasa dgtarjetdkgs jra eko-
pcax, fut wa wdcc jssuoa tmjt tma ojdg emjghas dg hckfjc gjgedjc ekg`d-
tdkgs wara `rdvag fy njetkrs axtargjc tk `avackpdgh ekugtrdas.
Pmdr`, `urdgh tma praerdsds pardk`, tma muha dgerajsa dg gat ejpdtjc
dgstkws tk `avackpdgh ekugtrdas ekdged`a` wdtm j cjrha dgerajsa dg gat
ejpdtjc kutstkws. Nkr ojgy ekugtrdas, eurragt jeekugt surpcusas jg`
dgtargjtdkgjc rasarvas dgerajsa` sufstjgtdjccy. Pmds wkuc` suhhast tmjt
tma dopjet kn tma okra fagdhg hckfjc gjgedjc ekg`dtdkgs ejggkt fankug` fy ckkbdgh kgcy jt tma stkws kn ejpdtjc tk `avackpdgh ekugtrdas.
Pma axpcjgjtdkg oust fa ouem okra ekopcax.
Ckwar Ekst kn Nkradhg Ejpdtjc, Dgerajsa` Jeeass, jg` j
Uurha dg Dgstkws
Jvarjha spraj`s kg aoarhdgh-ojrbat fkg`s `rkppa` smjrpcynrko
jfkut =99 fjsds pkdgts (fps) dg 699: tk jfkut 699 fps dg ajrcy 6998, jg`
nurtmar tk :>= fps fy od`-6998. Pma `koastde rankros jg` fattar aek-
gkode ojgjhaoagt dg `avackpdgh ekugtrdas oust mjva ekgtrdfuta` tk
tmds aecdga. Fut tma fucb kn tma aecdga dg rdsb praoduos jg` fkrrkwdgh
eksts nkr avackpdgh ekugtrdas oust fa jttrdfuta` tk tma sdodcjr aerajsas
saag dg dgtarast rjtas jg` rdsb praoduos dg mdhm-dgekoa ekugtrdas.
Gat ejpdtjc dgstkws (prdvjta jg` knedjc) tk `avackpdgh ekugtrdas
surha` nrko QU$665 fdccdkg (0 pareagt kn H@Y) dg 699: tk QU$:.: trdccdkg
(4 pareagt kn H@Y) dg 6998 (Xkrc` Fjgb 69:9j). Gat nkradhg `draet dgvast-
oagt (N@D) dgstkws js j smjra kn `avackpdgh ekugtrdas H@Y dgerajsa`
nrko 6.1 pareagt dg 699: tk 5.4 pareagt dg 6998, wmdca tma smjra kn axtargjc
fkg` ojrbats jg` nkradhg fjgb cag`dgh rajema` 0 pareagt kn H@Y dg 6998.
Pma surha dg ejpdtjc dgstkws tkkb pcjea dg jcc wkrc` rahdkgs, wdtm tma cjrhast
hjdgs dg racjtdva taros (js j pareagtjha kn H@Y) dg Aurkpa, Eagtrjc Jsdj,
jg` Ukutm Jsdj. Emdgj, Dg`dj, tma Vussdjg Na`arjtdkg, jg` Frjzdc jeekugta`
nkr okra tmjg 19 pareagt kn ejpdtjc dgstkws, kg jvarjha, urdgh 699:98.
Fut `d` tmds surha dg gat ejpdtjc dgstkws trjgscjta dgtk dgerajsa``koastde dgvastoagt jg` hrkwtm dg `avackpdgh ekugtrdas;
Dt ds dopkrtjgt tk gkta tmjt `avackpdgh ekugtrdas sjvdgh rjtas surha`
fatwaag 6999 jg` 6998. Dg vdaw kn tma pmagkoagjc dgerajsas dg sjvdgh dg
Emdgj (fy := pkdgts kn H@Y) jg` Dg`dj (jcokst :0 pkdgts), tma jvarjha
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
49/664
Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas 6:
dgerajsa nkr `avackpdgh ekugtrdas wjs aqudvjcagt tk jfkut :9:: pkdgts
kn H@Y. Fut avag tma oa`djg dgerajsa wjs jfkut 0 pareagtjha pkdgts knH@Y. Pmds dopcda` nkr ojgy ekugtrdas j cjrha pksdtdva dgerajsa dg eurragt
jeekugt fjcjgeas. Dg njet, `avackpdgh ekugtrdas pksta` jg jhhrahjta eurragt
jeekugt surpcus kn QU$09> fdccdkg dg 6998, varsus lust QU$>= fdccdkg dg
6996. Pma cjrhar vkcuoa kn gat ejpdtjc dgstkws jg` cjrhar eurragt jeekugt
surpcusas jcsk oajgt cjrha gat ejpdtjc kutstkws jg` dgerajsas dg rasarvas.
(Pktjc gat ejpdtjc stkwsgat dgstkws pcus gat kutstkws=ds tma racavjgt
vjrdjfca tk usa dg ekgsd`ardgh tma dopjet kg dgvastoagt jg` hrkwtm.)
Xkrc` Fjgb (69:9j) g`s tmjt j :-pareagtjha-pkdgt dgerajsa dg ejpdtjcdgstkws ds jsskedjta` wdtm j 9.01 pareagtjha-pkdgt dgerajsa dg dgvastoagt
usdgh erkss-ekugtry rahrassdkgs. Gat ejpdtjc dgstkws axpcjdg 59 pareagt kn
dgtarekugtry `dnnarageas dg dgvastoagt rjtas (::.1 pkdgts fatwaag tma tkp
jg` fkttko qujrtdcas). Jg` usdgh j pjgac rahrassdkg, tma stu`y g`s tmjt
jfkut kga-tmdr` (:.4 pareagtjha pkdgts) kn tma jvarjha dgerajsa (kn 1.0
pareagtjha pkdgts) dg dgvastoagt rjtas fatwaag 6999 jg` 6998 ds jeekugta`
nkr fy tma ra`uetdkg dg tma hckfjc ekst kn ejpdtjc, :: pareagt (9.> pkdgts) fy
doprkva` `koastde gjgedjc dgtaroa`djtdkg, jg` 61 pareagt (:.0 pkdgts)
fy doprkva` taros kn trj`a.
Pma pksdtdva ekrracjtdkg fatwaag gat ejpdtjc dgstkws jg` dgvastoagt
smkuc` rasuct dg j gahjtdva ekrracjtdkg fatwaag tma eurragt jeekugt
fjcjgea (kr tktjc gat ejpdtjc kutstkws) jg` aekgkode hrkwtm. Mkwavar, j
strjg` kn aopdrdejc avd`agea jcsk g`s j pksdtdva jsskedjtdkg fatwaag
eurragt jeekugt fjcjgeas (surpcusas) jg` aekgkode hrkwtm dg avackpdgh
ekugtrdas (Yrjsj`, Vjljg, jg` Uufrjojgdjg 6998). Pmds avd`agea suhhasts
tmjt mdhmar hrkwtm rjtas jra jsskedjta` wdtm mdhmar ejpdtjc jeekugt sur-
pcusas (kr ckwar aedts), tmjt ds, wdtm mdhmar sjvdgh rjtas wmdca dgvastoagt
rjtas cjh. Pmds wkuc` oajg tmjt dgvastoagt dg `avackpdgh ekugtrdas ds gkt
ekgstrjdga` fy tma cjeb kn `koastde raskureas jg` ds gkt ekrracjta` wdtm
tktjc gat ejpdtjc dgstkws. Pma wajbar hrkwtm dg dgvastoagt ds axpcjdga` fy
wajbar gjgedjc `avackpoagt kr rajc axemjgha jppraedjtdkg dg tma pras-
agea kn cjrha ejpdtjc dgstkws, wmdem ra`ueas tma prktjfdcdty kn dgvastoagts
dg trj`jfcas.4
Pmasa ekgstdetdgh g`dghs ejg fa raekgedca` dn kga raejccs, nrko tma
pravdkus `dseussdkg, tma ojgy emjggacs tmrkuhm wmdem hckfjc gjgedjc
ekg`dtdkgs ojy jnnaet tma `koastde aekgkoy. Gat ejpdtjc dgstkws jra
kgcy kga suem emjggac jg` tmadr dopjet ojy `apag` kg tma `koastde
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
50/664
66 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
dgvastoagt ecdojta. Pma ekopksdtdkg kn ejpdtjc dgstkws ojy fa okra
dopkrtjgt tmjg tma tktjc dgstkws nkr tma qujcdty kn dgvastoagt jg`hrkwtm. Hckfjc dgtarast rjtas jg` fattar jeeass tk era`dt ojy dgstuagea
`koastde gjgedjc dgtaroa`djtdkg jg` `koastde dgtarast rjtas wdtmkut
sdhgdejgt ejpdtjc dgstkws.
@koastde Dgtarast Vjtas jg` Fjgbdgh Dgtaroa`djtdkg
Pma ajsdar hckfjc gjgedjc ekg`dtdkgs mjva jcsk faag trjgsodtta`
tk `avackpdgh aekgkodas tmrkuhm tmadr dopjet kg `koastde fjgbdgh
dgtaroa`djtdkg. Dg ekofdgjtdkg wdtm `koastde rankros, ckwar dgstjtdkg,ckwar dgtargjtdkgjc dgtarast rjtas, ckwar spraj`s, jg` jeeass tk nkradhg
ejpdtjc mjva macpa` ra`uea `koastde dgtarast rjtas jg` tma ekst kn ejpdtjc
dg `avackpdgh ekugtrdas jg` mjva macpa` `aapag `koastde fjgbdgh
dgtaroa`djtdkg.
Fjgbdgh dgtaroa`djtdkg (js oajsura` fy ecjdos kn `apksdt okgay,
fjgbs, jg` ktmar gjgedjc dgtaroa`djrdas kg tma prdvjta saetkr) axpjg`a`
nrko 51 pareagt kn H@Y dg 6999 tk 0: pareagt dg 6998.:9Dg ojgy ejsas,
tmds wjs radgnkrea` tmrkuhm hrajtar pjrtdedpjtdkg kn nkradhg fjgbs dg
`koastde gjgedjc systaos jntar gjgedjc cdfarjcdzjtdkgs dg aoarhdgh
ekugtrdas. Pma axpjgsdkg wjs okst gktjfca dg tma rahdkg kn Aurkpa jg`
Eagtrjc Jsdj, jg` dg Ukutm Jsdj. Xkrc` Fjgb (69:9j) g`s nrko j pjgac
rahrassdkg nkr tma pardk` 699:98 tmjt j : pkdgt aecdga dg tma hckfjc prdea
kn rdsb ds jsskedjta` wdtm jg dgerajsa kn 8.1 pareagtjha pkdgts (kn H@Y) dg
gjgedjc dgtaroa`djtdkg jg` j 5.1-pareagtjha-pkdgt (kn H@Y) dgerajsa
dg ejpdtjc dgstkws nkr tma jvarjha `avackpdgh ekugtry. Pma hrkwtm dg
fjgbdgh dgtaroa`djtdkg dg okst ejsas keeurra` wmdca `koastde dgtarast
rjtas wara `aecdgdgh, wmdem suppkrta` strkgh `koastde `aojg` hrkwtm.
Fut tma axpjgsdkg kn fjgbdgh dgtaroa`djtdkg wjs ugavag jerkss
ekugtrdas. Ojgy ekugtrdas axpardagea` j cjrha axpjgsdkg fatwaag 6999
jg` 6998 (cjrhar tmjg :9 pareagtjha pkdgts kn H@Y), suem js Frjzdc,
Dg`dj, Ykcjg`, Purbay, jg` ^datgjo. Ktmars sjw j cjrha `aecdga dg
gjgedjc dgtaroa`djtdkg tk tma prdvjta saetkr, js dg Atmdkpdj, wmara hkv-
argoagt pkcdey njvkra` era`dt tk stjta-kwga` agtarprdsas nkr nug`dghdgnrjstruetura prklaets, jg` dg Ojcjysdj jg` tma Ymdcdppdgas, wmara
prdvjta dgvastoagt wjs scuhhdsm jg` `aecdgdgh `aspdta mdhm sjvdgh rjtas.
Ckwar dgtarast rjtas, axpjgsdkg kn `koastde era`dt, jg` hrajtar jeeass
tk nkradhg ejpdtjc dgerajsa tma `aojg` nkr dgvastoagt fy prdvjta jhagts.
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
51/664
Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas 65
Ekopksdtdkg kn Ejpdtjc Dgstkws jg` Ndgjgedjc Aghdgaardgh
Pma sjoa cavac kn ejpdtjc dgstkws ojy mjva j `dnnaragt annaet kg dgvast-oagt jg` hrkwtm, `apag`dgh kg dts ekopksdtdkg. Jcokst jcc kn tma
:9 ekugtry stu`das mdhmcdhmt tma rkca kn cjrhar dgstkws kn N@D dg dgerajs-
dgh tktjc njetkr prk`uetdvdty (PNY) hrkwtm, dgecu`dgh tmrkuhm fattar
jeeass tk taemgkckhy.
Pma ckwar ekst kn ejpdtjc, ok`arjta` rdsb pareaptdkgs, jg` hrajtar
jeeass tk dgtargjtdkgjc gjgedjc ojrbatstkhatmar wdtm ajsdgh rastrde-
tdkgs kg ejpdtjc stkws dg ojgy `avackpdgh ekugtrdasnjedcdtjta` jeeass
tk okra ekopcax gjgedjc aghdgaardgh jg` prk`uets tmjt stdoucjta``koastde dgvastoagt, aspaedjccy dg suem ojrbats js dgnrjstruetura. Pmds
wjs aspaedjccy tma ejsa dg Dg`dj, fut ktmar ekugtrdas oust jcsk mjva
fagata` nrko tmasa sarvdeas.
Pma cjrha dgerajsa dg pkrtnkcdk ejpdtjc dgstkws (nrko gajr zark dg 699:
tk QU$:>9 fdccdkg dg 6998) ekgtrdfuta` ekgsd`arjfcy tk tma rdsa dg tma
ojrbat ejpdtjcdzjtdkg kn avackpdgh-ekugtry stkeb ojrbatswmdem rksa
kg jvarjha nrko 5= pareagt kn H@Y dg 6999 tk =4 pareagt dg 6998.::Pmds
fkko dg stkeb ojrbats wjs j hckfjc pmagkoagkg. Pma okst `ygjode
ekugtrdas axpardagea` tma cjrhast hjdgs8> pareagtjha pkdgts dg Dg`dj
jg` 40 pkdgts dg Emdgj. Cjrha dgerajsas wara jcsk axpardagea` fy ktmar
aoarhdgh ojrbats cdba Frjzdc jg` Ykcjg`. Dg Purbay, stkeb ojrbat ejpd-
tjcdzjtdkg `kufca` nrko 6996, nkcckwdgh tma stkeb ojrbat erjsm kn tma
699: erdsds, avag tmkuhm tma rjtdk dg 6998 raturga` tk tma sjoa cavac js dg
6999. Pma ekugtrdas tmjt jra cajst `ygjode, dg taros kn dgvastoagt jg`
aekgkode hrkwtm, axpardagea` tma sojccast hjdgsOjcjysdj (raekvardgh
nrko tma Ajst Jsdj erdsds), Oaxdek, jg` tma Ymdcdppdgas.
Pma rdsa dg aqudty prdeas kn ekrpkrjtdkgs caj`s tk dgerajsas dg Pkfdgs q
jg` jcsk stdoucjtas `koastde dgvastoagt.:6Dg tma ejsa kn Dg`dj, tma stu`y
g`s j strkgh dopjet kn stkeb ojrbat ejpdtjcdzjtdkg kg `koastde dgvast-
oagt. Pmds annaet wjs cdbacy prasagt jg` sdhgdejgt dg ktmar ekugtrdas.
Jssassdgh tma Dopjet kg @koastde Dgvastoagt jg` H@Y Hrkwtm
Xmdca dt ds `dneuct tk `atarodga tma dopjet kn tma vjrdkus gjgedjcemjggacs `dseussa` jfkva kg dgvastoagt `urdgh tma praerdsds fkko
pardk`, nkr tma cjrha sjopca kn 10 ekugtrdas, tma `jtj smkw tmjt dgvast-
oagt rjtas js j smjra kn H@Y dgerajsa` fy jg jvarjha kn 1.5 pareagtjha
pkdgts `urdgh 699998, jg` avag okra (1.1 pkdgts) dn wa axecu`a tma
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
52/664
60 Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
tmraa Ajst Jsdjg ekugtrdas.:5Fut tmasa (wadhmta`) jvarjhas ekgeajc j ckt
kn vjrdjfdcdty jg` jra majvdcy dgstuagea` fy tmraa cjrha ekugtrdasEmdgj,Dg`dj, jg` ^datgjo (Jsdj-5 dg hura 6.6)wmara tma dgerajsa wjs
8:: pareagtjha pkdgts. Pmds dgerajsa ds ouem hrajtar racjtdva tk wmjt
wjs kfsarva` dg Ajst Jsdj (AJ-0< Dg`kgasdj, tma Vapufcde kn Bkraj,
Ojcjysdj, jg` Pmjdcjg`) `urdgh :4494> (fankra tma :4484= erdsds)
(hura 6.6). Pma dgerajsa nkr tma ktmar savag avackpdgh ekugtrdas, wmdem
jra pjrt kn kur :9-ekugtry sjopca, ds ouem okra ok`arjta. Dg Ojcjysdj
jg` tma Ymdcdppdgas, tma dgvastoagt rjta `aecdga` fy 0> pareagtjha
pkdgts kn [email protected] :9 ejsa stu`das suhhast tmjt ekugtrdas wara dg `dnnaragt sdtujtdkgs
dg taros kn tma axtagt kn tmadr `apag`agea kg axtargjc gjgea kr tma
`ahraa kn ekgstrjdgt tmay njea` dg gjgedgh koastde dgvastoagt. Xa g`
j hrkup kn ekugtrdas wdtm mdhm sjvdgh rjtas (hrajtar tmjg 61 pareagt kn
H@Y fy tma od`-6999s) jg` (sdhgdejgtcy) pksdtdva kr dgerajsdgh eurragt
jeekugt fjcjgeas< Emdgj, Dg`dj, Ojcjysdj, Oaxdek, jg` tma Ymdcdppdgas.
Xdtm j vary mdhm jg` dgerajsdgh sjvdgh rjta, ^datgjo ejg fa dgecu`a` dg
Ndhura 6.6. Hrkss Ndxa` Ejpdtjc Nkrojtdkg `urdgh Yraerdsds Yardk`s
Ukurea
5=
8>1056:
%H
@Y
ktmar 8 (699:98) Jsdj-5 (699:98) AJ-0 (:4494>)
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
53/664
Uygtmasds< Hrkwtm jntar tma Hckfjc Vaeassdkg dg @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas 61
tmds hrkup `aspdta dts `aecdgdgh eurragt jeekugt fjcjgea. Nkr tmasa ekug-
trdas, tma vkcuoa kn ejpdtjc stkws wkuc` mjva j cdodta` dopjet kg `koas-tde ejpdtjc jeeuoucjtdkg. J saekg` hrkup dgecu`as Frjzdc jg` pkssdfcy
Ykcjg`, wmdem mjva ckw sjvdgh rjtas fut jra adtmar gkt axtargjc-gjgea
ekgstrjdga` kr wajbcy ekgstrjdga` dg vdaw kn tmadr avag ckwar dgvastoagt
rjtas jg` doprkvdgh eurragt jeekugt fjcjgea. J tmdr` hrkup ejg fa ekg-
sd`ara` js axtargjc-gjgea ekgstrjdga` dg vdaw kn tmadr ckw sjvdgh rjtas, j
cjrha (gahjtdva) eurragt jeekugt fjcjgea (Atmdkpdj), kr j `atardkrjtdgh
axtargjc fjcjgea (Purbay). Pma vkcuoa kn ejpdtjc stkws wkuc` fa j
sdhgdejgt `atarodgjgt kn `koastde dgvastoagt nkr tmds cjst hrkup knaxtargjc-gjgea ekgstrjdga` ekugtrdas.
Nkr tma okra ygjode aekgkodas, tma dopjet kn j okra fagdhg hckfjc
gjgedjc agvdrkgoagt ds okra cdbacy tk fa nkug` dg tma ekopksdtdkg kn
ejpdtjc stkws. Cjrhar pkrtnkcdk stkws ojy stdoucjta prdvjta dgvastoagt
tmrkuhm mdhmar `koastde aqudty prdeas jg` Pkfdgs q, js dg tma ejsa kn
Dg`dj. Cjrhar N@D stkwsjs dg tma ejsa kn Frjzdc, Dg`dj, jg` ^datgjo
wkuc` jnnaet tma qujcdty kn dgvastoagt jg` prk`uetdvdty hrkwtm.
Dgerajsa` fkrrkwdgh fy tma ekrpkrjta saetkr ojy rastaet okra anedagt
dgvastoagt, wdtm jeeass tk fattar gjgedjc aghdgaardgh (js jppajrs tk fa
tma ejsa dg Dg`dj).
Prj`a Emjggac. Pma praerdsds fkko sjw j surha kn axpkrts nrko avackp-
dgh ekugtrdas. Pmds surha wjs pjrtdeucjrcy doprassdva wmag oajsura` fy
tma rjtdk kn tktjc axpkrts kn hkk`s jg` sarvdeas tk H@Y, wmdem dgerajsa`
nkr j sjopca kn 16 ekugtrdas `urdgh 699998 fy j wadhmta` jvarjha kn
jcokst :6 pareagtjha pkdgts, jg` j sdopca jvarjha kn 1 pkdgts. Pma
dgerajsa nkr tma rjtdk kn ojgunjeturdgh axpkrts tk H@Y wjs jcsk sdhgd-
ejgt fut okra suf`ua`, typdejccy 09 pareagt tmjt kn tktjc axpkrts. Nkr
ekugtrdas suem js Dg`dj, sarvdeas wara j bay ekgtrdfutkr tk dgerajsa`
trj`a smjras.
Pma aopdrdejc cdtarjtura typdejccy g`s j sdhgdejgt annaet kn trj`a
smjras kg tma cavac kn H@Y hrkwtm kr H@Y par ejpdtj (Mjrrdskg jg`
Vk`rhuaz-Ecjra 69:9). Pmds ojy fa `ua tk spdcckvar annaets tmrkuhmtaemgkckhdejc jg` ojrbatdgh axtargjcdtdas nrko prk`uetdkg nkr axpkrt-
dgh jetdvdtdas. Pma dopjet kn axpkrts kg hrkwtm ojy jcsk fa tmrkuhm
trj`jfcas js spaedjc, js tmay jcckw okvdgh dgtk mdhmar-prk`uetdvdty
jetdvdtdas. Mkwavar, suem hjdgs `k gkt raqudra jetujc axpkrtdgh, fut
-
8/7/2019 The Great Recession and Developing Countries
54/664
6> Pma Hrajt Vaeassdkg jg` @avackpdgh Ekugtrdas
rjtmar tma axpjgsdkg dg tma prk`uetdkg kn trj`jfcas. Dg tmds ejsa, tma
annaet ds ejptura` tmrkuhm tma dgerajsa dg tma smjra kn dg`ustry dg H@Yjg` gkt tma smjra kn axpkrts dg H@Y (Vk`rdb 6994).
Pma `aapar dgtahrjtdkg wdtm tma hckfjc aekgkoy tmjt mj` faag kghk-
dgh nkr tma pravdkus twk aej`as oust mjva ekgtrdfuta` tk tma doprkva`
hrkwtm parnkrojgea kn `avackpdgh ekugtrdas `urdgh tma praerdsds fkko
pardk`. Pmds ds pjrtdeucjrcy trua nkr Emdgj jg` ^datgjo, jg` pkssdfcy
Ykcjg` jg` Purbay, wmksa doprkva` ekopatdtdvagass jg` prk`uetdvdty
ojy mjva erajta` j pksdtdva naa`fjeb ckkp wdtm dgerajsa` axpkrts.
Dgerajsa` hrkwtm dg `aojg` nkr axpkrts jg` kn trj`a smjras ds j pks-sdfca emjggac kn dopjet nrko hckfjc aekgkode ekg`dtdkgs kg `avackpdgh
ekugtrdas hrkwtm. Fut tma mdhm rjta kn axpkrt hrkwtm kn `avackpdgh
ekugtrdas wjs gkt `rdvag fy dgerajsa` dopkrt `aojg` hrkwtm nrko rdem
ekugtrdas. Dg`aa`, tma rjta kn hrkwtm kn tktj