the great depression of 1990s review
TRANSCRIPT
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Revi
ewed
by
Pir Q
asim
Sh
ah
Essential InformationTitle: The Great
Depression of 1990
Author: Dr. Ravi Batra
Book Type: Macro Economics
Price:$11.67Publisher: Simon
& Schuster New York
ISBN:0-671-64022-4
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About the AuthorBorn: Multan Jun 27 1943Occupation: Professor, Author.Education: M.A. Dehli School of EconomicsPh.D. Southern Illinois UniversityCurrent Employer: Southern Methodist University Dallas TXSpiritual Influence: Prahbat Ranjan Sarkar (Founder of Ananda Marga)Professional Heritage: Progressive utilization school
Raveendra Nath "Ravi" Batra
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1.Can it Happen again?2.The Law of Social Cycles3.The Long Run Cycle of Money and
Growth in the United States4.The Long Run Cycle of Inflation5.The Long Run Cycle of Regulation6.Concentration of Wealth and
Depressions7.The Great Depression of 1990-
19968.Strategy for Investment9.Can We Prevent Another
Depression?
Distribution of Book
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Reason for Writing this Book1. To inform the
society about the up coming recession
2. To provide guidance and advice about how to deal with it
3. To help in investment decision making in the predicted recessionary period
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Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar 21 May 1921 – 21 October 1990
Philosopher, Author, Social, Revolutionist, Poet, Composer & Linguist.Major Works:• Law of Social Cycles• Progressive Utilization Theory• Philosophy of Neohumanism• Ananda Marga Org (Path of Bliss)• PROUT Universal
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Sarkar’s PROUT
Practical alternative to the theories of Marxism (communism) and Capitalism
PROUT is based on universal values recognizing and protecting the rights of all
Protection of the environment
Dynamic, incentive-based multi-tiered economy
Cooperatively-employee-owned enterprises
Encourages a balance in the effort of satisfying individual and collective needs.
No one should be left behind as society marches forward
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Review Cont… Can it Happen again?
Yes based on the economic & socio-political analysis done by the author.Predictions made by author:1.The Shah of Iran will be overthrown
and clergy would take over 19792. In 1980’s Iran & Iraq will start long
war3.Europe would experience recession
in 1986-874.America would suffer a depression
in 1989-905.Capitalism would be overhauled in
19990’s
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The Law of Social Cycles
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Long run economic cycle
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Long run growth comparison
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LONG RUN CYCLE OF INFLATION
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GDP Change of US 1923 – 46 (Annual) 1947 – 09 (Quarterly)
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Economic Depressions• The Depression of the
1780’s • The Great Depression of
the 1840’s• The Great Depression of
the 1870’s• The Great Depression of
the 1930’s
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Economy determined by the Revolution in 1770s
Dependency on British Markets didn’t work
Peace Treaty with English Signed in Paris in 1783
Depression was caused mainly due to huge Balance of Trade
Protectionist policies of France and Britain US goods couldn’t be sold openly abroad
Depression lasted six years
The Depression of the 1780’s
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•Inflation of Land, cotton, wheat and slaves rose•Virtually the whole nation felt the effects of the panic. Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware reported the greatest stress in their mercantile districts•In some other regions business activity decreased more than 20%•Lasted about seven years
The Great Depression of the 1840’s
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The Great Depression of 1930’sWorst Depression of all timesEconomic Activity sank down to 40%
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The Great Depression of 1930’s
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Conventional Wisdom & Wealth Concentration•Changes in the
aggregate demand and
supply of goods and
services
•Total consumption
•Investment &
•Government
Expenditure
•Inept fiscal policy, tax
revenues fell, business
activity reduced, rising
tax rates reduces further
consumption.
YEAR Share of Wealth by 1%
Richest1929 36.3
1933 28.3
1939 30.6
1945 23.3
1949 20.8
1953 27.5
1956 26.0
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The Great Depression of 1990-96Assumptions:History has its own rhythmMoney, Growth and Regulations have a deterministic pathRecessions though complex have a patternCycles of Inflation, Money etc crest every third decade in a centuryDepressions occur at intervals of three or six decades
•Theory of Economic Cycles is still alive.•History repeats itself• There are a few common characteristics among recessions• Viewing society revolving around sarkar’s philosophies•Patterns could be broken through fundamental economic reforms
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Critical Analysis Lester Thurow wrote
intro but to a monograph/novel not this book.
New York times 1987 Aug 30; p.7 says sarkar was convicted of six murders
Batra talks to sarkar (LATE) via a type of meditation tantra
Forecast a great disaster & include a formula for redemption, either ways you’ll win.
Mixed ideas of Taxing & Saving Wealth Concentration
Social Science citation index 1986. 21 Ciataions
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Critical Analysis cont…•Small sample size•Data gathering issues•Focus on US only•Sarkar’s Social Cycle theory lacks in explaining Laborers Era & Transformation Process
• More than one method for forecasting violates consistency principle•Insufficient conclusions drawn from the premise•Written for Fame & Money; not for Help!
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Analysis of Economic RecessionsName: Umair HaqueNationality: Pakistani, BritishOccupation: Author, Director, Bloggers, Analyst, Business SpeakerEducation: Bachelors in Psychology (London School of Economics)MBA (Oxford University)Ph.D (Oxford University)Publications: The New Capitalist Manifesto. Regular Columnist of HBR, Economics for Humans, Building a Disruptively Better BusinessEmployer: Havas Media Lab
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Alternative perspective
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Discussion and Q/A Session Thank you