the great balancing act - cambridge consultants€¦ · optical sensor for subsea oil pipelines the...
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9 October 2015
Nathan Wrench
Innovation Day 2015
The great balancing act
Making the Important, Measurable
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9 October 2015 2
Optical sensor for subsea oil pipelines
The word “sensor” means different things
to different people.
At one end of the scale, we have this
ruggedised optical instrument, that our Oil
and Gas group has produced for our client.
Measures water-to-oil ratio on sea bed in
3000m deep water and is the size of an
SUV – it allows well management to be
optimised in real time
We used our expertise in NIR
spectroscopy to develop a patentable
sensing system with a 50 fold increase in
accuracy
Then engineered it to work reliably in a
harsh environment for 25+ years
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9 October 2015 3
The unprecedented rate of progress in sensing and connectivity make this “ the
fourth Industrial Revolution”
http://prd.accenture.com/microsites/digital-industry/digital.html
18th Century 20th Century 70s Today
Industry 1.0 Mechanical
production powered
by water and steam
Industry 2.0 Mass production
based on the division
of labour and powered
by electrical energy
Industry 3.0 Electronics and IT for
a further atomization
of production
Industry 4.0 Cyber physical
production Systems
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Industrial internet
“The world is on the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of
the Industrial Internet”
- Jeff Immelt
CEO of GE (2012)
• GE moving away from “big iron”
towards intelligent connected
systems to enable predictive
maintenance and the provision of
“thrust hours” rather than locos.
• It is taking place through the
convergence of the global industrial
system with the power of advanced
computing, analytics, low cost
sensing and new levels of
connectivity permitted by the
internet.
• The catchphrase he used that
day, the "Industrial Internet,"
has by now become
commonplace in technology
circles, even though it has
been barely realized in terms
of impact.
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The “Industrial Internet” is creating data
more than twice as fast as any other
sector
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The potential value of improved operational efficiency across the industrial
sector is vast…
http://gereports.com.my/post/114013103539/the-industrial-internet-is-already-changing-our
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9 October 2015 7
Better measurement gives you
better control
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I’m going to start with an anecdote from my personal history, as a graduate engineer,
when I first became aware of the gap between what was measurable and what was
important. I’ll call this chapter:
Resist the temptation to “turn it up to eleven”
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http://www.ssi.shimadzu.com/products/literature/LC/ELSD_SteviaAnalysis.PDF
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http://www.ssi.shimadzu.com/products/literature/LC/ELSD_SteviaAnalysis.PDF
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We observed that
“good” nebulisers
often generated a
small vacuum
Whereas “bad”
ones were
associated with
positive pressure
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An end of line test was introduced, and
the vacuum levels were logged as part
of the QA procedures
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Vacuum = “good”
More vacuum
= “better”
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The effect was to make the more volatile samples undetectable….necessitating
urgent repairs out in the field
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Our mistake was to make the
Measurable, Important
So, how to start?
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There are two basic methods to approaching
the challenges of “Industry 4.0” and adding
intelligence to a product or service
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Method 1
Method 1 – the “honeypot method”…..One of the temptations to avoid is the classic
“take our old product, dip it in honey and then roll it in the sensors drawer.” Wherever
the sensors stick, you design them into the product and see what you can do with the
data.
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The current A350 model has a total of close to 6,000 sensors across the entire
plane and generates 2.5 Tb of data per day, while the newer model – expected to
take to the skies in 2020 – will capture more than triple that amount.
The forthcoming A380-1000 – the supersized airliner capable of carrying up to
1,000 passengers – will be equipped with 10,000 sensors in each wing.
MORE sensors – MUCH MORE data
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Having collected the vast quantity of data that such a sensor network creates,
this data must be analysed for patterns using modern data analytic techniques
99.26% correlation
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This can be massively insightful…but is also fraught with difficulties.
Correlations are much easier to track down after events, rather than before
95.45% correlation
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44 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 bytes of data per year by 2020….
“There will be over 50 billion machines online by 2020. The storage
space alone will be staggering. Gigabytes will be a thing of the
past. Terrabytes will be a memory. Exabytes will be floating around
in the every day.
By 2020, the human race will be producing over 44 zettabytes of
digital data annually. That’s 44, with 21 zeros. That really is Big
Data. But how will the world cope with that much information? And
more importantly, how can the industry make it work for them?”
GE.
http://gereports.com.my/post/128690900559/ge-predix-article-the-industrial-cloud-is-here
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Sensors are about information, not data
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Method 2
Make the Important, Measureable
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Step 1
1. Consider the business case
Rather than just “adding smarts” to your old product, production line or
service….consider it as part of its overall eco-system. Can you:
Make your product or service unique?
Make you better perceived by your customers?
Reduce warranty claims, materials costs or cost of ownership?
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Can you generate an ROI?
Implementing a new sensor system can be expensive – it can
be disruptive…
Is the potential up-side >10x the probable cost of development?
Can you pay back in 3 years…or less?
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Step 2
2. Get the criteria right
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Consider your
system in context
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Consider your system in context
Who needs the information?
– WHEN do they need it?
Real-time? Daily updates? Once a week?
Who owns the problem?
Manufacturing / Service / Customers / Operators?
– Who is prepared to pay for it?
How can you ensure security over your information?
– If it has value to you, there will be hack attempts
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Step 3
3. Build ‘the simplest experiment to
show the hardest aspect’ then define
your product architecture accordingly.
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Here are some practical experiences in trying to implement a distributed sensor network
for the logistics industry – one of our own developments, that I know some of you are
already familiar with.
The challenge here for us is to reduce wastage of perishable goods where the
temperature has to be tightly controlled.
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Why do this?
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The other important industry using cold chain
logistics is life sciences and pharma – goods
such as biological vaccines, where the efficacy
of the drug is strongly determined by how it’s
handled in transit.
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DropTag® is a simple-to-use, low-cost
condition-monitoring system, comprising
smart sensor pucks, an app and a secure
server.
It allows individuals and businesses to
understand how goods have been treated
at any given point in their journey.
– Temperature
– Humidity
– Acceleration
– Pressure
– Flight detection
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DropTag is affixed to individual cold-chain
packages prior to despatch
Critical events are logged in DropTag’s
memory
Adding wireless sensing means the measurements are taken INSIDE the
insulation, but can be read from OUTSIDE
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Truck Journey – Temperature and Humidity
Temperature and Humidity traces provide a wealth of data…
Driving Refrigeration Motor
Human
Classification
Time / hrs
Can see the cooling /
heating cycles correlate
with the vibrations seen.
When the refrigeration unit
cools down the load the
humidity also drops and
fresh dry air supplied.
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But remember – we want information, not data.
The value of this sensing system is not in the volume of data it can produce, but in
the immediacy of the way it answers the question: Is this shipment OK?
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Knowing AFTER the event that a shipment is damaged, or not fit for use is
helpful….but is it a solution?
The greatest benefit comes from solving the problem, not from diagnosing it
Max
Min
time
temp At this point, the
shipment is left in
direct sun
By this point, the
shipment is
damaged
The alert needs to
be raised HERE –
based on rate of
change and “in-
context sensing”
Normal cooling
cycles
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In order to maximise the usefulness of a distributed sensor network, we must
employ some localised sensor intelligence
Distil the data into useful, actionable information
– Learn what’s important
– Prevent data-overload
Urgent – provide near real-time access to the information
– Securely, with appropriate access controlled within the relevant organisations
– Remote access, for operators in different regions
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Consider, from the beginning, the value
of the information…
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…and the value of the immediacy of the
information
AND THE EFFECT THIS CAN HAVE ON
YOUR BOTTOM LINE
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Intelligent sensing is the art of
measuring what’s important
This isn’t just about logistics; it could be a sensor on your production
line, or on your airbus or locomotive….
No amount of data is sufficient to replace some aspects of
management - but the overall task is much easier when you measure
what’s important
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9 October 2015
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