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THE GRANITE STATE POLL

November 6, 2016 CLINTON LEADS TRUMP IN FINAL NH POLL, SENATE RACE TIGHT By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603‐862‐2226 UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey‐center DURHAM, NH – Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the race for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes in the final Granite State Poll. Maggie Hassan has a small lead over incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte, although her lead is within the poll’s margin of error. Colin Van Ostern leads Chris Sununu in the race for Governor although a third of the electorate has not definitely decided whom they will vote for.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred and seven (707) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 3 and November 6, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/‐ 3.7 percent.

2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Nearly all New Hampshire voters have decided whom they will vote for in the presidential election on Tuesday. 85% of likely voters say they have definitely decided whom to support, 7% are leaning towards someone, and 8% are still trying to decide. Nearly all Democrats (91%) and Republicans (86%) say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for while only 68% of Independents have definitely made up their mind.

We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

7% 10%16% 18% 36%

36%40%

60%67%

71%78% 79% 78% 79% 82% 82% 85% 84% 85%81%

73%

62% 62%

43%

33% 32%

24%19%

15% 13% 12% 14% 14% 11% 12%8% 8% 8%

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Feb.'15

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Nov3‐6

2016 US Presidential Election‐‐ Decided On Vote

Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide

2016 Presidential Election Over the final weekend of the 2016 campaign, 48% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Hillary Clinton, 38% will vote for Donald Trump, 6% will vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, 1% will vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 2% will vote for another candidate, and 7% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the results become 49% for Clinton, 38% for Trump, 6% for Johnson, 1% for Stein, 2% for someone else, and 4% undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 51% for Clinton, 40% for Trump, 6% for Johnson, 1% for Stein and 2% for other candidates. Clinton is doing better among core Democratic voters (95%‐1%) than Trump is doing among core Republican voters (86%‐3%). Swing voters are evenly divided (35% for Trump, 35% for Clinton and 14% for Gary Johnson). Clinton leads by 25 points among women (59%‐34%) while Trump only leads men 43% to 38%. Trump continues to lead among those with a high school degree or less (52%‐36%) while Clinton has a large lead among those who have completed postgraduate work (65%‐22%). Those who have completed technical school or some college (42%‐39% Clinton) and college graduates (49%‐42% Clinton) are divided.

50% 50% 48% 47%50%

39%

45%49%

46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 49% 51%

40% 42%39% 39%

31%

37% 36% 34%38% 40% 39% 38% 40% 39% 40% 41%

38% 40%

0%

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30%

40%

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60%

Vote For US President* Including Undecided but leaning voters

Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Undecided

90% 91% 93% 92% 93% 93% 94% 95% 95%

81% 84% 85% 83% 85% 82% 83% 85% 86%

37% 39% 38% 35%

29% 31% 31% 30%35%31% 29% 27%

33%

42% 40% 42% 42%35%

0%

10%

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30%

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50%

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Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov 1Oct 30‐Nov 2Oct 31‐Nov 3 Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

Clinton/Trump Support Among Core/Swing Voters

Core DEM for Clinton Core GOP for Trump Swing for Clinton Swing for Trump

Favorability of 2016 Presidential Candidates

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will end the election cycle historically unpopular among New Hampshire likely voters. Two in five (40%) have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 54% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 7% are neutral and don’t know. Clinton’s net favorability is ‐14%. Clinton is very popular among Democrats (+64%) but very unpopular among Independents (‐42%) and Republicans (‐87%).

Donald Trump is even less popular – three in ten (29%) likely New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, 65% have an unfavorable opinion, and 6% are neutral. Trump’s net favorability is ‐36%.Trump is only somewhat popular among Republicans (+33%), and is very unpopular among Independents (‐51%), and Democrats (‐95%).

38% 36%43%

38% 38% 37% 39% 40% 41% 41% 40% 40%

58% 58%53%

57% 56% 57% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54%

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Apr '16 July '16 Oct 17'16

Oct 26‐29

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Oct 29‐Nov 1

Oct 30‐Nov 2

Oct 31‐Nov 3

Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

Favorability Ratings ‐ Hillary Clinton ‐ Likely Voters

Favorable Unfavorable

21%

32%26% 28%

31% 32% 31% 33% 31% 30% 31% 29%

75%

61%69%

64% 63% 64% 64% 62% 63% 63% 62% 65%

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Apr '16 July '16 Oct 17'16

Oct 26‐29

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Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

Favorability Ratings ‐ Donald Trump ‐ Likely Voters

Favorable Unfavorable

Who Will Win Presidential Election? Three in five New Hampshire likely voters (60%) think that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election, while just 25% think Trump will win, and 16% are unsure. While nearly all Clinton voters (92%) believe that she will win, only 62% of Trump voters think he will win. This measure of electoral races has been shown to be a more accurate predictor of the winner than “horse race” questions, but not necessarily the margin of victory.

2016 US Senate Election

The race for U.S. Senator from New Hampshire is likely one of the most expensive races in the country and most voters have decided whom they will vote for. Three in four likely voters (76%) say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for, 7% are leaning toward a candidate, and 17% are still trying to decide.

70%61% 57% 56% 57% 57% 58% 60% 58% 60%

19%24% 26% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 25%

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Oct 17 '16 Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov1

Oct 30‐Nov2

Oct 31‐Nov3

Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

Who Will Win Presidential Election?

Clinton Trump Other Don't Know

6%10% 8%

19% 21% 20%41%

50%59% 60% 59%

63% 65% 67%72% 74% 76%

87%81% 84%

73%68% 69%

43%

35%30% 28% 28% 26% 26% 24%

20% 18% 17%0%

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May'15

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Oct 17'16

Oct26‐29

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Nov 2‐5

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2016 US Senate Election ‐‐ Decided On Vote


2016 US Senate Election – Ayotte vs. Hassan This race has been very close for more than a year and looks to remain close heading into Election Day. Currently, 48% will vote for Maggie Hassan, 43% would vote for Kelly Ayotte, 1% would vote for someone else, and 8% are undecided. After including undecided voters who have indicated the candidate to whom they are leaning toward, the percentages become 49% for Hassan, 45% for Ayotte, 1% for someone else, and 4% remain undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 52% for Hassan, 47% for Ayotte, and 1% for other candidates. Ayotte and Hassan both have the support of 95% of their core voters while swing voters favor Ayotte 46%‐39%. Ayotte has a double digit lead among men (53%‐40%) but Hassan has a slightly larger lead among women (57%‐38%).

Who Will Win Senate Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the U.S. Senate election, 37% of likely voters think Ayotte will be re‐elected, 40% think Hassan will win, and 23% are unsure. A majority of Republicans (69%) think Ayotte will win, a majority of Democrats (64%) think Hassan will win and a 28% of Independents are unsure. 71% of Ayotte voters think that she will win and 69% of Hassan voters believe that she will win.

43% 41%43%

41% 42%

45% 44%48%

45% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 49%52%

45% 47% 45% 45% 43%

42% 42%39%

44% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 44% 45% 45% 47%

0%

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60%

US Senate ‐ Ayotte vs. Hassan* Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters

Hassan Ayotte Other Undecided

33% 32% 32% 33%

36%39% 39% 39% 40%37% 36% 36% 36%

35% 35% 36% 37% 37%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov1

Oct 30‐Nov2

Oct 31‐Nov3

Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

Who Will Win Senate Election?

Hassan Ayotte Other Don't Know

NH Gubernatorial Election With high profile presidential and Senate races, the race for New Hampshire Governor has flown under the political radar. Only 63% of New Hampshire likely voters say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for, 7% are leaning towards someone, and 30% are still trying to decide. If the election was held today, 45% of New Hampshire likely voters would vote for Democrat Colin Van Ostern, 35% would vote for Republican Chris Sununu, 2% would vote for someone else, and 19% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the percentages become 48% for Van Ostern, 37% for Sununu, 2% for someone else, and 13% remain undecided. Van Ostern is doing better amongst Core Democratic voters (92%‐1%) than Sununu is among Core Republican voters (85%‐4%) and Van Ostern has a slight edge among swing voters 34%‐30%. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 55% for Van Ostern, 44% for Sununu, and 2% for other candidates.

44% 42% 43% 44% 43%46% 47% 47% 47% 48%

55%

38%41% 40% 40% 40% 38% 37% 37% 38% 37%

44%

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Oct 17'16*

Oct 26‐29*

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Oct 28‐31*

Oct 29‐Nov 1*

Oct 30‐Nov 2*

Oct 31‐Nov 3*

Nov 1‐4* Nov 2‐5* Nov 3‐6* Prediction

NH Governor ‐ Van Ostern vs. Sununu* Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters

Van Ostern Sununu Other Undecided

33%

50% 50% 49%54% 56%

60% 62% 61% 63%

54%

38% 39% 39%35% 35% 32% 30% 31% 30%

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Oct 17 '16 Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov1

Oct 30‐Nov2

Oct 31‐Nov3

Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

2016 NH Governor Election ‐‐ Decided On Vote


Who Will Win NH Governor Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the Gubernatorial election, more than a third (36%) of likely voters are unsure. 35% think Sununu will win while 28% think Van Ostern will win. Seven in ten (70%) Sununu voters believe he will win compared to only 54% of Van Ostern voters predicting his victory.

21% 20% 22%22%

25%

29% 28% 28% 28%

33% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32% 34% 34%35%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Oct 26‐29 Oct 27‐30 Oct 28‐31 Oct 29‐Nov 1

Oct 30‐Nov 2

Oct 31‐Nov 3

Nov 1‐4 Nov 2‐5 Nov 3‐6

Who Will Win Gubernatorial Election?

Van Ostern Sununu Other Don't Know

Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred and seven (707) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 3 and November 6, 2016. If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent birthday was selected to be interviewed. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/‐ 3.7 percent. These MSE’s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.1%. The random sample used in the Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non‐working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non‐usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Additionally, data were weighted by respondent sex, age, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non‐sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non‐response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross‐tabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. For more information about the methodology used in the Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862‐2226 or by email at [email protected].

Granite State Poll, November 6 2016 ‐ Likely Voter Demographics

Sex N % Region N %

Male 381 49% North Country 55 8%

Female 399 51% Central/Lakes 118 17%

Connecticut Valley 112 16%

Age N % Mass Border 186 26%

18 to 34 163 24% Seacoast 113 16%

35 to 49 170 25% Manchester Area 122 17%

50 to 64 218 32%

65 and Over 132 19% Party Registration N %

Democrat 220 31%

Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg. 272 39%

High School or Less 103 15% Republican 212 30%

Some College 162 23%

College Graduate 261 37% Party Identification N %

Post‐Graduate 167 24% Democrat 298 43%

Independent 111 16%

Republican 277 40%

Firmness of Presidential Vote “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for President … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”

Definitely Decided

Leaning Toward Someone

Still Trying To Decide (N)

Nov 3 ‐ 6 85% 7% 8% (707)

Nov 2 – 5 84% 8% 8% (659)

Nov 1 – 4 85% 7% 8% (600)

Oct 31 – Nov 3 82% 6% 12% (522)

Oct 30 – Nov 2 82% 7% 11% (473)

Oct 29 – Nov 1 79% 8% 14% (478)

Oct 28 – 31 78% 9% 14% (527)

Oct 27 ‐ 30 79% 9% 12% (477)

Oct 26 ‐ 29 78% 8% 13% (530)

Oct 17 ‘16 71% 14% 15% (764)

Aug ‘16 67% 15% 19% (432)

July ‘16 60% 16% 24% (465)

Apr ‘16 40% 28% 32% (549)

Feb ‘16 36% 31% 33% (620)

Jan ‘16 36% 21% 43% (885)

Sept ‘15 18% 21% 62% (743)

July ‘15 16% 22% 62% (650)

May ‘15 10% 18% 73% (625)

Feb. ‘15 7% 13% 81% (768)

US President “Thinking about the presidential election will you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican … Hillary Clinton, the Democrat… Gary Johnson, the Libertarian… Jill Stein of the Green Party… some other candidate …. or will you skip this election?” ROTATE CANDIDATES *Johnson and Stein included starting in July 2016 July ’15 Sept ’15 Jan. ’16 Feb ’16 Apr ’16 July ’16 Aug ’16 Oct 17 ’16 Trump 40% 42% 39% 39% 31% 37% 32% 33% Clinton 50% 50% 48% 47% 50% 37% 43% 48% Johnson 10% 12% 7% Stein 5% 4% 2% Other 2% 3% 10% 10% 15% 5% 3% 4% Undecided 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% (N=) (619) (692) (839) (578) (533) (460) (417) (755) Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Trump 37% 39% 38% 37% 38% 37% 39% 39% 38% Clinton 45% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% 46% 46% 48% Johnson 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% Stein 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% Other 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Undecided 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% (N=) (518) (463) (513) (468) (466) (515) (590) (646) (693)

US President With Leaners “Would you say you are leaning towards Donald Trump, the Republican … Hillary Clinton, the Democrat… Gary Johnson, the Libertarian… or Jill Stein of the Green Party?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Prediction Trump 34% 38% 40% 39% 38% 40% 39% 40% 41% 38% 40% Clinton 49% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 49% 51% Johnson 8% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% Stein 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% Other 5% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% Undecided 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% (N=) (755) (516) (463) (513) (468) (466) (515) (588) (645) (692)

Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings – Likely Presidential Election Voters "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates who are running for President. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person ‐ or if you have never heard of him or her." "First, how about ... ROTATE CANDIDATES “Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?”

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N)Nov 3‐6 40% 6% 54% 1% ‐14% (701)Nov 2‐5 40% 4% 55% 0% ‐15% (652)Nov 1‐4 41% 4% 55% 0% ‐14% (594)Oct 31‐Nov 3 41% 4% 55% 0% ‐14% (522)Oct 30‐Nov 2 40% 5% 55% 0% ‐15% (473)Oct 29‐Nov 1 39% 5% 56% 0% ‐17% (480)Oct 28‐31 37% 5% 57% 0% ‐20% (528)Oct 27‐30 38% 6% 56% 0% ‐18% (476)Oct 26‐29 38% 5% 57% 1% ‐19% (532)Oct 17 ‘16 43% 4% 53% 0% ‐10% (767)July ‘16 36% 5% 58% 0% ‐22% (468)Apr. ‘16 38% 3% 58% 0% ‐20% (553)

“Businessman Donald Trump?”

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N)Nov 3‐6 29% 6% 65% 0% ‐36% (703)Nov 2‐5 31% 6% 62% 0% ‐31% (655)Nov 1‐4 30% 7% 63% 0% ‐33% (598)Oct 31‐Nov 3 31% 6% 63% 0% ‐32% (523)Oct 30‐Nov 2 33% 5% 62% 0% ‐29% (474)Oct 29‐Nov 1 31% 4% 64% 1% ‐33% (480)Oct 28‐31 32% 4% 64% 1% ‐32% (529)Oct 27‐30 31% 5% 63% 1% ‐32% (477)Oct 26‐29 28% 5% 64% 2% ‐36% (533)Oct 17 ‘16 26% 4% 69% 1% ‐43% (767)July ‘16 32% 6% 61% 1% ‐29% (466)Apr. ‘16 21% 4% 75% 0% ‐54% (553)

Who Will Win Presidential Election? “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the presidential election?” Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Trump 19% 24% 26% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 25% Clinton 70% 61% 57% 56% 57% 57% 58% 60% 58% 60% Johnson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Stein 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 11% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 16% 14% 15% 14% (N=) (762) (531) (477) (529) (480) (474) (522) (596) (655) (703)

Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Senate – Likely Voters

“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Senate election … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”

Def. Decided Leaning Trying to Decide (N=) Nov 3 ‐ 6 76% 7% 17% (693)

Nov 2 – 5 74% 8% 18% (647)

Nov 1 – 4 72% 8% 20% (590)

Oct 31 – Nov 3 67% 9% 24% (520)

Oct 30 – Nov 2 65% 9% 26% (470)

Oct 29 – Nov 1 63% 11% 26% (479)

Oct 28 – 31 59% 13% 28% (529)

Oct 27 ‐ 30 60% 12% 28% (478)

Oct 26 ‐ 29 59% 11% 30% (534)

Oct 17 ‘16 50% 15% 35% (748) Aug ‘16 41% 16% 43% (422) July ‘16 20% 11% 69% (460) Apr ‘16 21% 10% 68% (538) Feb ‘16 19% 8% 73% (588) Oct ‘15 8% 8% 84% (506) July ‘15 10% 9% 81% (464) May ‘15 6% 7% 87% (518)

US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan – Likely Voters “Thinking about the US Senate election, will you vote for Kelly Ayotte, the Republican … Maggie Hassan, the Democrat … some other candidate… or will you skip this election?” ROTATE CANDIDATES May ‘15 July ‘15 Oct ‘15 Feb ‘16 Apr ’16 July ’16 Aug ’16 Oct 17 ’16 Ayotte 45% 47% 45% 45% 43% 42% 42% 38% Hassan 43% 41% 43% 41% 42% 45% 44% 46% Other 2% 1% 1% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% Undecided 9% 12% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% (N=) (501) (468) (498) (597) (527) (448) (412) (725) Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Ayotte 43% 44% 42% 41% 39% 39% 42% 43% 43% Hassan 43% 43% 44% 44% 45% 45% 46% 45% 48% Other 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Undecided 12% 11% 12% 13% 14% 14% 11% 10% 8% (N=) (514) (461) (510) (464) (461) (511) (581) (634) (679)

US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan – Likely Voters – With Leaners “Would you say you are leaning towards Kelly Ayotte, the Republican … or Maggie Hassan, the Democrat?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Prediction Ayotte 39% 44% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 44% 45% 45% 47% Hassan 48% 45% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 49% 52% Other 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Undecided 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 4% (N=) (724) (514) (461) (509) (462) (460) (509) (581) (634) (679)

Who Will Win Senate Election? “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the US Senate election?” Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Ayotte 37% 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 36% 37% 37% Hassan 33% 32% 32% 33% 36% 39% 39% 39% 40% Other 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Undecided 30% 32% 31% 30% 28% 25% 25% 24% 23% (N=) (530) (477) (528) (479) (473) (520) (593) (647) (696)

Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Governor – Likely Voters

“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Gubernatorial election… are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”

Def. Decided Leaning Trying to Decide (N=) Nov 3 ‐ 6 63% 7% 30% (695)

Nov 2 – 5 61% 8% 31% (646)

Nov 1 – 4 62% 8% 30% (587)

Oct 31 – Nov 3 60% 9% 32% (515)

Oct 30 – Nov 2 56% 9% 35% (465)

Oct 29 – Nov 1 54% 11% 35% (477)

Oct 28 – 31 49% 12% 39% (526)

Oct 27 ‐ 30 50% 12% 39% (476)

Oct 26 ‐ 29 50% 11% 38% (532)

Oct 17 ‘16 50% 15% 35% (748) Aug ‘16 41% 16% 43% (422) July ‘16 20% 11% 69% (460) Apr ‘16 21% 10% 68% (538) Feb ‘16 19% 8% 73% (588) Oct ‘15 8% 8% 84% (506) July ‘15 10% 9% 81% (464) May ‘15 6% 7% 87% (518)

NH Gubernatorial Election “Thinking about the Gubernatorial election, will you vote for Chris Sununu, the Republican … Colin Van Ostern, the Democrat … some other candidate …. or will you skip this election?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Sununu 35% 36% 36% 35% 36% 33% 33% 34% 35% 35% Van Ostern 41% 39% 38% 39% 40% 41% 43% 44% 43% 45% Other 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Undecided 21% 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 21% 21% 19% (N=) (676) (505) (454) (503) (461) (457) (507) (574) (631) (672)

NH Gubernatorial Election With Leaners “Would you say you are leaning towards Chris Sununu, the Republican … or Colin Van Ostern, the Democrat?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov Oct 17 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Prediction Sununu 38% 41% 40% 40% 40% 38% 37% 37% 38% 37% 44% Van Ostern 44% 42% 43% 44% 43% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 55% Other 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% Undecided 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 13% (N=) (673) (503) (452) (501) (460) (455) (505) (572) (628) (671)

Who Will Win Gubernatorial Election? “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Gubernatorial election?” Oct Oct Oct Oct 29‐ Oct 30‐ Oct 31‐ Nov Nov Nov 26‐29 27‐30 28‐31 Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 1‐4 2‐5 3‐6 Sununu 33% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32% 34% 34% 35% Van Ostern 21% 20% 22% 22% 25% 29% 28% 28% 28% Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Undecided 45% 46% 45% 44% 42% 38% 38% 38% 36% (N=) (530) (477) (528) (479) (471) (517) (590) (646) (696)

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Will Definitely Vote

Will Vote Unless Emergency

Extremely Interested in Election

Very Interested

Somewhat/Not Very Interested

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less

Technical school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

First Cong. District

Second Cong. District

8%

12%

2%

5%

12%

4%

87%

76%

94%

8%

16%

4%

6%

15%

5%

86%

68%

91%

6%

18%

3%

6%

13%

4%

88%

69%

93%

28%

7%

22%

6%

50%

87%

22%

14%

3%

18%

6%

6%

60%

80%

91%

3%

9%

6%

12%

5%

6%

6%

11%

92%

85%

88%

78%

4%

12%

7%

7%

89%

81%

6%

15%

2%

10%

8%

11%

7%

5%

87%

74%

91%

85%

3%

11%

5%

14%

8%

6%

6%

9%

89%

83%

89%

77%

9%

5%

11%

8%

5%

9%

6%

10%

87%

86%

83%

82%

5%

12%

8%

12%

2%

9%

6%

5%

8%

11%

1%

9%

88%

83%

84%

77%

97%

82%

8%

8%

7%

7%

85%

85%

212

272

220

277

111

298

240

177

290

40

667

68

191

446

132

218

170

163

367

339

136

131

227

202

236

192

127

138

167

260

162

103

113

55

186

122

112

118

358

349

(N)

707


NH Likely Voters 8%7%85%

Decided on Vote For US President

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Definitely Decided

Leaning Towards Someone

Still Trying To Decide




Very Interested


18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



8%

12%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

4%

10%

1%

7%

44%

91%

79%

32%

5%

7%

18%

4%

1%

3%

1%

1%

1%

6%

15%

1%

7%

33%

91%

79%

30%

2%

4%

19%

4%

2%

3%

1%

0%

1%

6%

12%

0%

3%

32%

94%

85%

34%

0%

67%

25%

1%

4%

3%

1%

3%

3%

0%

10%

15%

4%

7%

28%

53%

9%

26%

41%

30%

6%

4%

2%1%

15%

5%

34%

48%

17%

39%

21%

12%

3%

3%

3%

1%1%

6%

5%

5%

23%

44%

53%

47%

36%

37%

4%

9%

5%

9%

3%

1%

1%

3%

1%

0%

1%

3%

1%

6%

11%

57%

50%

49%

38%

32%

38%

40%

38%

6%

8%

1%

2%

0%

1%

2%

9%

57%

37%

33%

42%

8%

8%

5%

9%

2%

3%

1%

2%

0%

1%

1%

1%

15%

2%

6%

59%

30%

57%

41%

30%

44%

35%

42%

5%

7%

9%

10%

2%

4%

1%

0%

1%

0%

2%

1%

7%

2%

12%

64%

41%

47%

31%

28%

40%

41%

45%

9%

5%

10%

8%

2%

3%

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

5%

3%

9%

4%

63%

47%

41%

36%

21%

41%

38%

50%

5%

12%

8%

8%

3%

9%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

8%

2%

4%

4%

1%

10%

54%

57%

41%

41%

64%

39%

31%

24%

44%

44%

29%

40%

8%

7%

2%

2%

0%

1%

5%

6%

51%

45%

34%

41%

210

263

219

273

107

296

237

168

288

53

50

591

39

655

68

183

440

130

214

166

162

362

331

135

127

223

200

233

187

125

137

164

256

158

103

110

55

185

118

110

115

354

340

(N)

693

Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided

NH Likely Voters 7%2%1%5%48%38%

Vote for US President

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Definitely Decided






Very Interested


18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



4%

8%

0%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

5%

11%

1%

9%

46%

91%

81%

32%

6%

3%

12%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

1%

6%

19%

1%

9%

36%

92%

80%

30%

2%

2%

12%

1%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

6%

14%

1%

3%

35%

95%

86%

35%

1%

47%

7%

0%

4%

3%

1%

3%

6%

0%

16%

19%

4%

17%

33%

53%

13%

32%

41%

19%

4%

4%

2%1%

19%

5%

34%

50%

24%

39%

18%

6%

1%

3%

3%

1%

1%

1%

6%

7%

5%

24%

46%

54%

49%

36%

38%

2%

5%

4%

5%

3%

1%

1%

3%

1%

0%

1%

1%

3%

3%

6%

13%

57%

52%

49%

38%

33%

39%

40%

39%

3%

6%

1%

2%

0%

1%

2%

10%

59%

38%

34%

43%

5%

7%

2%

5%

2%

3%

1%

2%

0%

1%

1%

1%

2%

15%

2%

7%

60%

31%

59%

42%

31%

44%

36%

42%

2%

4%

5%

8%

2%

4%

1%

0%

1%

1%

0%

2%

1%

8%

3%

13%

65%

43%

48%

32%

29%

41%

43%

45%

4%

2%

8%

4%

2%

3%

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

6%

4%

10%

5%

65%

49%

42%

36%

22%

42%

39%

52%

12%

7%

4%

1%

5%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

10%

2%

5%

4%

1%

11%

55%

57%

42%

43%

65%

41%

33%

24%

44%

46%

30%

40%

5%

4%

2%

2%

1%

1%

6%

6%

52%

45%

34%

42%

210

261

219

273

107

294

237

168

286

53

50

589

39

653

68

182

440

130

214

166

160

360

331

133

127

223

200

233

187

123

137

164

256

158

102

110

55

185

118

108

115

352

340

(N)

692

Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided

NH Likely Voters 4%2%1%6%49%38%

Vote for US President With Leaners

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP




Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



18%

19%

6%

1%

0%

31%

60%

89%

52%

20%

5%

19%

20%

8%

0%

0%

29%

63%

89%

51%

17%

3%

20%

18%

7%

1%

0%

25%

56%

92%

54%

24%

1%

18%

14%0%0%

70%

60%

12%

26%

19%

20%

11%

1%

0%

0%

56%

57%

62%

24%

22%

26%

29%

31%

11%

7%

20%

4%

1%

61%

69%

73%

92%

18%

6%

15%

1%

62%

19%

15%

14%

11%

0%0%57%

58%

62%

65%

23%

27%

24%

24%

15%

14%0%

0%63%

58%

22%

28%

17%

16%

15%

13%

1%

0%

0%64%

59%

62%

57%

19%

25%

23%

31%

12%

14%

22%

13%

1%

0%

69%

63%

53%

51%

19%

22%

26%

36%

17%

11%

17%

16%

1%

0%

71%

63%

55%

46%

11%

26%

27%

37%

9%

11%

10%

17%

16%

25%

1%

0%

68%

68%

58%

59%

64%

50%

23%

21%

31%

24%

20%

24%

14%

15%

0%0%62%

59%

24%

26%

212

268

220

277

110

298

240

175

289

40

664

68

190

444

42

5

41

338

265

131

217

170

163

368

336

137

131

227

200

236

190

127

138

166

260

162

103

112

55

185

122

112

117

357

346

(N)

703

Trump Clinton Johnson Other Dont Know

NH Likely Voters 14%0%0%60%25%

US President - Who Will Win?

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP




Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



0%

1%

0%

27%

71%

94%

9%

6%

2%

64%

22%

4%

0%

1%

0%

28%

71%

97%

11%

8%

1%

61%

20%

2%

0%

1%

0%

23%

67%

99%

11%

7%

1%

66%

25%

0%

0%

74%

65%

16%

5%

9%

30%

4%

0%

50%

66%

67%

12%

8%

4%

35%

26%

29%

4%

0%

78%

100%

81%

99%

15%

12%

3%

0%

12%

10%

11%

0%

72%

0%

0%

1%

70%

66%

66%

60%

3%

5%

5%

9%

27%

29%

29%

30%

0%

0%

68%

62%

6%

5%

25%

33%

1%

1%

69%

59%

67%

63%

7%

6%

6%

5%

23%

34%

27%

32%

1%

1%

75%

69%

57%

53%

4%

5%

11%

6%

22%

26%

31%

40%

1%

0%

84%

65%

58%

49%

3%

5%

11%

5%

13%

31%

30%

46%

0%

1%

1%

72%

78%

57%

57%

76%

64%

3%

1%

8%

5%

3%

9%

24%

21%

34%

38%

21%

27%

1%

0%

67%

63%

5%

6%

26%

31%

211

269

220

276

110

298

239

174

290

39

664

66

190

445

41

5

41

339

263

131

218

170

163

365

338

137

131

226

201

235

191

127

138

167

260

161

103

113

55

184

122

111

118

356

347

(N)

703

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know

NH Likely Voters 0%65%6%29%

Favorability - Donald Trump

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP




Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



1%

0%

1%

93%

57%

14%

10%

6%

6%

34%

79%

1%

2%

92%

64%

15%

3%

12%

6%

5%

22%

79%

1%

2%

95%

67%

12%

2%

9%

7%

2%

22%

81%

2%

1%

50%

54%

18%

5%

29%

40%

1%

1%

1%

65%

59%

50%

12%

7%

4%

21%

33%

45%

3%

1%

76%

73%

87%

13%

97%

15%

27%

8%

2%

8%

10%

79%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

47%

53%

56%

61%

3%

6%

6%

6%

49%

41%

38%

32%

1%

1%

44%

65%

6%

5%

49%

29%

1%

1%

0%

0%

45%

68%

43%

63%

7%

3%

6%

7%

46%

28%

51%

30%

1%

1%

1%

0%

40%

60%

51%

72%

5%

6%

9%

4%

55%

33%

39%

24%

1%

1%

1%

39%

56%

58%

67%

5%

6%

8%

4%

56%

38%

33%

29%

1%

1%

2%

47%

48%

58%

63%

41%

61%

6%

6%

7%

5%

4%

6%

47%

46%

34%

32%

54%

31%

1%

1%

51%

57%

6%

5%

41%

38%

211

269

218

277

109

296

240

173

288

39

662

66

188

445

41

5

41

336

264

131

218

168

163

366

336

136

131

227

199

236

189

127

138

167

258

161

103

113

54

184

122

109

118

354

347

(N)

701

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know


Favorability - Hillary Clinton

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP




Very Interested


18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



17%

21%

13%

7%

9%

6%

76%

70%

81%

18%

21%

14%

9%

13%

5%

74%

66%

82%

15%

29%

11%

6%

14%

5%

78%

57%

84%

36%

16%

19%

7%

45%

77%

44%

26%

9%

7%

8%

7%

49%

65%

83%

7%

12%

17%

29%

4%

7%

10%

10%

89%

81%

73%

61%

14%

20%

6%

9%

80%

71%

23%

32%

8%

13%

6%

10%

6%

8%

70%

57%

86%

79%

10%

14%

20%

28%

6%

8%

7%

11%

84%

78%

73%

61%

13%

12%

21%

31%

4%

9%

12%

4%

83%

80%

67%

65%

15%

25%

17%

24%

12%

14%

6%

8%

8%

6%

5%

12%

79%

67%

75%

71%

83%

74%

17%

17%

7%

8%

76%

75%

210

263

218

272

108

293

238

167

289

37

657

62

187

443

131

217

167

156

361

332

133

127

224

200

232

189

125

135

164

256

159

100

111

54

184

118

112

114

352

341

(N)

693



Decided on Vote for US Senate

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Definitely Decided






Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



6%

12%

4%

3%

1%

0%

7%

46%

89%

84%

41%

7%

6%

16%

6%

2%

2%

0%

7%

44%

88%

86%

38%

6%

4%

21%

3%

2%

2%

0%

1%

35%

94%

92%

42%

3%

42%

7%

0%

3%

1%

1%

24%

34%

54%

31%

58%

45%

16%

7%1%

31%

49%

53%

43%

19%

12%

5%

2%

0%

2%

25%

37%

55%

55%

50%

39%

27%

12%

5%

7%

8%

0%

2%

22%

100%

30%

86%

5%

44%

57%

9%

86%

3%

7%

9%

10%

1%

1%

1%

1%

56%

50%

50%

37%

40%

42%

40%

53%

7%

8%

0%

2%

55%

39%

37%

50%

11%

9%

4%

8%

0%

2%

1%

2%

55%

37%

55%

41%

34%

52%

40%

48%

4%

8%

12%

10%

1%

1%

4%

62%

44%

43%

32%

33%

47%

44%

54%

6%

6%

9%

15%

1%

1%

2%

2%

68%

45%

39%

34%

25%

48%

50%

49%

7%

2%

9%

10%

7%

7%

1%

3%

2%

1%

1%

58%

57%

38%

39%

62%

44%

35%

40%

51%

49%

30%

48%

9%

6%

2%

1%

49%

46%

40%

47%

208

258

211

273

102

288

237

160

282

107

52

517

37

642

60

181

437

40

4

41

330

256

128

215

165

150

356

324

130

121

221

199

229

188

122

128

162

255

155

96

112

52

183

111

109

114

346

333

(N)

679

Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided


Vote for US Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Definitely Decided






Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



3%

7%

2%

3%

1%

0%

7%

48%

91%

87%

43%

7%

3%

11%

4%

2%

2%

0%

7%

46%

90%

89%

42%

6%

2%

13%

2%

2%

2%

0%

1%

39%

95%

95%

46%

3%

24%

1%

0%

3%

1%

1%

35%

34%

54%

38%

63%

45%

10%

4%1%

34%

50%

56%

45%

10%

6%

3%

2%

0%

2%

32%

40%

55%

57%

53%

40%

20%

3%

3%

3%

8%

0%

2%

28%

100%

34%

88%

5%

44%

63%

9%

89%

2%

4%

5%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

57%

50%

51%

41%

40%

45%

43%

54%

4%

4%

0%

2%

57%

40%

38%

53%

6%

4%

2%

5%

0%

2%

1%

2%

59%

39%

57%

42%

35%

55%

41%

51%

2%

4%

8%

6%

1%

1%

4%

63%

45%

46%

34%

34%

50%

46%

56%

2%

3%

3%

13%

1%

1%

2%

2%

70%

45%

43%

36%

27%

50%

52%

49%

4%

2%

6%

8%

3%

2%

1%

3%

2%

1%

1%

59%

57%

39%

41%

62%

48%

36%

40%

52%

50%

34%

49%

5%

4%

2%

1%

52%

47%

42%

49%

208

258

211

273

102

288

237

160

282

107

52

517

37

642

60

181

437

40

4

41

330

256

128

215

165

150

356

324

130

121

221

199

229

188

122

128

162

255

155

96

112

52

183

111

109

114

346

333

(N)

679

Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided


Vote for US Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan With Leaners

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Ayotte Voter

Hassan Voter

Other/Undecided




Very Interested


18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



17%

25%

24%

1%

0%

16%

39%

63%

67%

35%

12%

16%

28%

24%1%

15%

38%

64%

69%

34%

11%

16%

31%

23%

1%

1%

13%

29%

67%

71%

39%

9%

55%

22%

16%

4%

0%

10%

69%

13%

31%

8%

71%

46%

21%0%

17%

41%

37%

37%

22%

31%

19%

2%

0%

41%

29%

44%

36%

40%

37%

22%

27%

19%

19%

0%

1%

40%

36%

43%

40%

38%

37%

37%

39%

23%

22%

1%

0%

46%

32%

30%

46%

22%

20%

23%

22%

1%

1%

46%

33%

48%

31%

31%

46%

30%

47%

22%

23%

25%

19%

0%

1%

1%

53%

36%

36%

27%

25%

41%

37%

54%

26%

20%

22%

22%

1%

1%

52%

41%

30%

34%

21%

39%

48%

43%

26%

22%

18%

29%

26%

17%

1%

1%

43%

44%

36%

34%

45%

40%

31%

34%

45%

37%

29%

42%

24%

21%

0%

0%

41%

38%

35%

41%

211

264

218

276

108

293

240

169

287

39

332

307

38

657

62

190

442

130

216

170

159

365

331

134

128

226

199

234

188

126

136

163

259

160

101

112

54

185

118

112

116

354

341

(N)

696

Ayotte Hassan Other Dont Know


US Senate - Who Will Win?

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP




Very Interested


18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



31%

36%

21%

7%

9%

5%

62%

55%

73%

32%

46%

21%

7%

6%

8%

61%

48%

71%

28%

53%

18%

7%

7%

7%

65%

40%

74%

49%

29%

13%

7%

37%

64%

56%

38%

23%

12%

7%

6%

31%

55%

70%

14%

24%

32%

49%

8%

8%

7%

6%

78%

67%

61%

46%

26%

34%

6%

8%

68%

58%

34%

50%

21%

25%

3%

6%

8%

9%

62%

44%

71%

65%

24%

27%

29%

43%

5%

8%

9%

9%

71%

65%

62%

48%

18%

31%

33%

42%

6%

7%

10%

7%

76%

63%

57%

52%

24%

42%

30%

38%

22%

30%

4%

7%

8%

11%

7%

5%

72%

51%

63%

51%

71%

64%

30%

30%

7%

8%

64%

62%

211

263

218

271

110

293

240

169

286

37

658

62

189

442

130

218

170

155

363

332

133

125

226

201

235

189

123

134

166

258

156

102

111

52

182

121

112

117

354

341

(N)

695



Decided on Vote for Governor

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Definitely Decided






Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



13%

31%

9%

2%

2%

1%

10%

38%

87%

75%

29%

4%

18%

33%

13%

2%

3%

1%

8%

35%

83%

72%

29%

3%

13%

43%

10%

2%

3%

1%

4%

28%

88%

81%

26%

1%

59%

6%

2%

1%

3%

2%

18%

53%

56%

22%

39%

40%

33%

18%

2%

2%

34%

46%

31%

35%

45%

23%

13%

4%

1%

2%

23%

38%

51%

27%

38%

35%

40%

34%

15%

18%

3%

5%

0%

2%

15%

100%

25%

82%

5%

42%

37%

3%

74%

8%

16%

19%

29%

0%

0%

3%

2%

54%

46%

47%

35%

37%

37%

31%

34%

17%

21%

1%

2%

52%

37%

30%

40%

26%

26%

11%

17%

1%

6%

1%

47%

34%

55%

39%

26%

35%

32%

43%

16%

17%

17%

25%

1%

2%

1%

2%

56%

45%

45%

26%

27%

35%

37%

47%

12%

19%

17%

28%

2%

1%

2%

2%

64%

43%

40%

28%

22%

36%

41%

43%

15%

20%

18%

23%

18%

18%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

53%

56%

40%

30%

56%

46%

31%

24%

40%

46%

23%

35%

19%

18%

1%

2%

49%

41%

31%

39%

204

255

212

267

104

287

237

151

284

190

48

428

35

637

59

178

434

39

5

38

327

256

128

213

161

149

353

319

127

119

222

196

232

184

117

129

161

254

152

94

107

52

180

116

107

111

339

333

(N)

672

Sununu Van Ostern Other Undecided


Vote for Governor - Sununu vs. Van Ostern

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP

Definitely Decided






Very Interested


Trump Voter

Clinton Voter

Johnson Voter

Stein Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



9%

22%

7%

2%

2%

1%

11%

44%

88%

78%

32%

4%

13%

22%

9%

2%

3%

1%

9%

41%

87%

76%

34%

3%

9%

33%

6%

2%

3%

1%

4%

34%

92%

85%

30%

1%

43%

1%

2%

1%

3%

2%

25%

57%

57%

31%

39%

40%

20%

13%

2%

2%

46%

48%

32%

37%

38%

15%

9%

5%

1%

2%

27%

43%

53%

30%

41%

37%

33%

24%

11%

12%

3%

5%

0%

2%

19%

100%

35%

85%

7%

46%

37%

4%

79%

5%

15%

9%

22%

0%

0%

3%

2%

56%

47%

51%

40%

39%

38%

37%

36%

11%

15%

1%

2%

55%

40%

32%

43%

17%

21%

8%

12%

1%

6%

1%

53%

35%

57%

42%

29%

38%

34%

46%

10%

11%

11%

21%

1%

2%

1%

2%

60%

48%

48%

29%

29%

39%

39%

49%

6%

14%

12%

23%

2%

1%

2%

2%

67%

47%

43%

30%

25%

38%

44%

45%

8%

18%

14%

17%

11%

14%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

57%

56%

42%

35%

58%

48%

33%

27%

42%

47%

29%

37%

14%

13%

1%

2%

51%

45%

34%

40%

204

254

212

267

104

286

237

150

284

188

48

428

34

637

58

178

434

37

5

38

327

256

128

213

161

147

352

319

125

119

222

196

230

184

117

129

161

253

152

94

107

52

180

116

107

109

338

333

(N)

671

Sununu Van Ostern Other Dont Know


Vote for Governor - Sununu vs. Van Ostern With Leaners

Registered Democrat



Democrat

Independent

Republican

Core DEM

Swing Voter

Core GOP




Very Interested


Sununu Voter

Van Ostern Voter

Other/Undecided

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Male

Female

Male, Married

Female, Married

Male, Unmarried

Female, Unmarried

Working Class Men

Working Class Women

College Educ Men

College Educ Women

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast



29%

40%

37%

2%

1%

9%

27%

48%

61%

32%

15%

30%

41%

38%

2%10%

24%

48%

58%

34%

14%

30%

43%

36%

2%

1%

6%

21%

52%

62%

35%

12%

39%

36%1%

20%

29%

40%

35%

39%

40%

34%

2%

1%

1%

24%

20%

32%

36%

39%

33%

63%

31%

26%

2%

1%

16%

54%

4%

19%

15%

70%

30%

32%

34%

46%

1%

1%

1%

32%

32%

31%

19%

37%

35%

34%

34%

38%

34%2%

33%

23%

29%

42%

45%

39%

33%

31%

3%

1%

31%

16%

35%

27%

24%

43%

32%

41%

31%

33%

49%

35%

2%

1%

39%

27%

25%

17%

31%

38%

26%

46%

38%

27%

41%

43%

1%

1%

1%

37%

32%

19%

23%

24%

40%

38%

34%

34%

25%

34%

43%

38%

36%

3%

32%

36%

24%

18%

36%

32%

34%

39%

39%

39%

26%

32%

36%

35%

1%

0%

32%

25%

31%

39%

209

266

218

274

110

293

239

171

287

38

658

64

190

440

100

319

248

130

214

170

161

363

333

134

130

224

199

233

188

126

138

163

257

160

103

112

54

185

120

111

116

353

343

(N)

696

Sununu Van Ostern Other Dont Know


NH Governor - Who Will Win?

the granite state poll - college of liberal arts · clinton leads trump in ... we ask that this...

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