the global gridded crop model intercomparison...ag-grid • organizing hub for gridded crop modeling...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Global Gridded Crop Model
Intercomparison – Approaches, insights and caveats of modeling
climate change impacts on agriculture at the
global scale.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott
& the Ag-GRID team
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Climate, Agriculture, Markets
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Nelson et al. 2013
Consumer
preferences
Population
GDP
Market
flexibility
Planting
dates
Varieties
Fertilizers
Irrigation
Crop mix
GHG
GCM
bias-
correction
interpolation
Modeling choices
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www.ISI-MIP.org
www.isimip.org
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www.AgMIP.org
Rosenzweig et al. 2013a
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ISI-AgMIP fasttrack
• 7 GGCMs – EPIC, GEPIC, IMAGE-AEZ, LPJ-GUESS, LPJmL,
pDSSAT, PEGASUS
• ~500 scenarios – 5GCM * 4 RCP * 2 irrig * 2 CO2 *7GGCM
• 3-16 crops
• Rainfed & fully irrigated
• With and without CO2 fertilization
• 67420 locations (0.5°*0.5° grid)
Rosenzweig et al. 2013b
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IPCC AR4 update for AR5
Rosenzweig et al. 2013b
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IPCC AR4 update for AR5
Rosenzweig et al. 2013b
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CO2 fertilization
Deryng et al. under review;
Rosenzweig et al. 2013b
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Water consumption
Deryng et al. under review
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Elliott et al. 2013
Indirect impacts
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ISI-MIP: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation
water availability on agricultural production under
climate change (Elliot et al., under review)
Elliott et al. 2013
Limits to adaptation
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Waha et al. 2013
Adapted sowing dates
Adapted cropping sequence
kcal/ha
Adaptation options
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Piontek et al. 2013
Adaptation challenges
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Piontek et al. 2013
Adaptation challenges
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Nelson et al. 2013
Economic response
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Spatial patterns
Müller & Robertson 2014
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IMPACT DSSAT EPIC LPJmL pDSSAT PEGASUS
Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize
Millet Maize ** Sorghum Millet *** ****
Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice ****
Sorghum Maize ** Sorghum Millet *** ****
Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
… … … … … …
Sub-tropical fruit * * * *** ****
Sugar beet * * Sugar beet *** ****
Sugar cane Maize Sugar cane Sugar cane *** ****
Sweet potatoes * * * *** ****
Temperate fruit * * * *** ****
Vegetables * * * *** ****
Other crops * * * *** ****
Commodity mapping
Nelson et al. 2013
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Nelson et al. 2014
Commodity mapping effects
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Schmitz et al. 2012
Externalities
Ch
an
ge
of IF
F s
ha
re p
er
ce
ll
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Schmitz et al. 2012
Externalities
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Ag-GRID
• Organizing hub for gridded crop modeling and data within AgMIP.
• Includes >18 modeling groups so far and >10 data partners
• Helps coordinate global and regional multi-model assessments.
• Synthesis platform for AgMIP data, expertise, IT, etc.
• GGCMI: flagship project of Ag-GRID
• 3 distinct model types: 1) Gridded process models, 2) Dynamic global vegetation and land-surface models, 3) Empirical/process model hybrids
22
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• Nine reanalysis-based historical weather
products spanning 1948-2012
• Harmonized on fertilizer, sowing, maturity, etc.
• Additional focus on large-scale
extreme drought/heat events in
the historical record.
Phase I: Historical evaluation
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• Phase II: CTWN
– Multi-dimensional sensitivity study of model response
to carbon, temperature, water, and nitrogen.
• Phase III: Coordinated assessment
– Vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptations
– New set of future climate forcings from CMIP5 and
CORDEX
– Detailed set of adaptation scenarios developed in the
AgMIP Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs)
framework
Future phases
Thanks