the global food security challenge ( gldn for eca, dec 18th

The Global Food Security Challenge

(www.worldbank.org/wdr2008)

GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th

World Development Report 2008

Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security

In ensuring adequate food supply Global food supply and demand (and shocks) National food supply and demand for many

countries (Africa, China, India) In providing means for poor to access to

food 75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and

most depend on agriculture for livelihoods Essential role of agriculture in providing

subsistence and incomes of the poor

2


Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing Incomes of the

PoorMajor conclusion

of World Development Report 2008: Agricultural growth is two to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth coming from other sectors

33

Agriculture

Non-agriculture

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Low est 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HighestExpenditure deciles

Expe

nditu

re g

ains

indu

ced

by 1

%

GD

P gr

owth

(%)

Agricultural growth is especiallybeneficial to the poor


WHITHER GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND?

4


5

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

SubSaharanAfrica

SouthAsia

East Asia MiddleEast

Europe &Central

Asia

LatinAmerica

Perc

ent

(%)

Latin America

Europe & Central Asia

Middle East

East Asia

South Asia

Sub Saharan Africa

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

Inde

x of

cro

plan

d pe

r ag

pop

ulat

ion

(196

1=10

0)

Critical land and water constraints

% of population in absolute water scarcity

Cropland per capita of agricultural population

Global Markets ; Supply Side


6

Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

(%)

maize

rice

wheat

Global Markets ; Food Supply


Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change

Price of Urea Fertilizer ($US/t)

Climate change will negatively affect yields in the tropics, 2080

7

Source: Cline (2007)Doubling of oil prices increases

grain prices by at least 20%

Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by at least 20%


8

Traditional exports

Meat

Horticulture

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2004

Val

ue o

f ex

port

s (1

980=

100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Kca

l con

sum

ptio

n/ca

pita

/day

(1

981=

100)

Changing diets ; Rising demand for high value products (and feed grains)

Developing and transitional country exports

Developing and transitional country consumption

Meat

Cereals

Horticulture

Global Markets: Demand Side


Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New Factor in Global

Markets

9Source: OECD and FAO, 2008


Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with Current Investment

Trends

050

100150200250300350400450

2000 2008 2025 2050 2050 with 0.4% higher growth in

yields

Average and projected price of cereals ($US2000/t)

10Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008


11

Food Production—Continuing Challenges in the 21st Century

A greater global challenge More from less The end of long-term falling food prices? Trade offs with the environment

Increased volatility Climate change, energy prices Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export

bansInclusive growth

Sharing benefits between producers and consumers

Connecting smallholders to emerging markets


INVESTING FOR FOOD SECURITY

12


13

Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and Institutional

Innovations:

Technological innovations Higher yield potential to revamp productivity

growth Overcoming key resource constraints (water,

drought) Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers Substitution of fossil energy use Adaptation to climate change and reduced

GHGsInstitutional innovations

More efficient and inclusive supply chains Collective action by farmer organizations Risk management for more frequent price

shock


Agricultural R&D Intensity 2000 (% AgGDP)

Agricultural R&D as a Share of Budget, 2000-04

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Agriculture based Transforming Urbanized

perc

ent

Public Spending on Ag (% of Ag GDP)

Spending on Ag R&D (% of Ag GDP)

More and Better Investments in R&D to Bridge Growing

Divide

Source: Pardey and Beintema,


Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for R&D to Reverse

Trends

15


Implications for the Global Community

Do no harm Reform farm and biofuel subsidies Mitigation of climate change

Invest in global public goods R&D (CGIAR)

Get agriculture back on the agenda Reverse trend in foreign assistance Revamp national food and agricultural

strategies

16

the global food security challenge ( gldn for eca, dec 18th

Documents

poor slide

global supply

global food security

falling food prices

agricultural growth

shocks national food

frequent price shock

grain prices