the global energy transition: exploring the …...2018/12/03 · the global energy transition:...
TRANSCRIPT
The Global Energy Transition: Exploring the Uncertainty
International Symposium, University of Tokyo, December 2018
Paul Appleby– BP Group Strategic Planning
How to handle the energy transition?
• Track the transition
• Explore the uncertainty – scenarios
• Get on board: “Advancing the energy transition”
• Get into action – do, learn, do
Tracking the transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 1978 1991 2004 2017
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew.
Annual change, Mtoe
Consumption growth by fuel Shares of primary energy consumption
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006-16 2016 2017
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Oil
Renew.
Gas
Primary energy fuel mix
Note: Oil includes biofuels
© BP p.l.c. 2018
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Coal Non-fossil Oil & gas
Fuel shares in power generation
Share
Exploring the uncertainty
“Scenarios are not about predicting the future,
rather they are about perceiving futures in the
present. …The end result is not an accurate
picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about
the future.”
Peter Schwartz, ‘The Art of the Long View’
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20
2016 ET ICEban
Lessgas
switch
REpush
FT EFT
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
7
Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition (ET)Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban)Less gas switchingRenewables push (RE push)Faster transition (FT)Even faster transition (EFT)
2040
Alternative scenarios
Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20 Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
8
0
5
10
15
20Renewables
Hydro
NuclearCoalGas
Oil
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20Transport
Industry
Non-combusted
Buildings
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Three windows on the energy transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Energy demand by sector
9
Primary energy consumption by end use sector
Final energy consumption growth: non-combusted versus industry
% per annum
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
TransportIndustryNon-combustedBuildings
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
Non-combusted
Industry
Billion toe
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Energy demand in buildings
10
Billion toe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity
Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Energy demand in buildings and transport sector
11
Billion toeBillion toe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity
0
1
2
3
4
5
2016 2040
Income per head
Efficiency gains
Population growth
Contributions to transport energy consumption growth
Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20 Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
12
0
5
10
15
20Renewables
Hydro
NuclearCoalGas
Oil
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20Transport
Industry
Non-combusted
Buildings
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Three windows on the energy transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Regional energy demand
13
Primary energy consumption by region Primary energy growth and regional contributions
% per annum
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
Billion toe
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Energy mix by region
14
Primary energy demand by fuel and regionBillion toe
0
1
2
3
4
5
2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables
India China Middle EastEUUS
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20 Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
15
0
5
10
15
20Renewables
Hydro
NuclearCoalGas
Oil
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20Transport
Industry
Non-combusted
Buildings
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Three windows on the energy transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Global energy by fuel
16
Shares of primary energy
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Oil GasCoal NuclearHydro Renewables
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion toe
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Diversified fuel mix
17
Shares of primary energy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Oil
Gas
Coal
Non-fossil
© BP p.l.c. 2018
0
5
10
15
20 Other
Africa
Other Asia
India
China
OECD
18
0
5
10
15
20Renewables
Hydro
NuclearCoalGas
Oil
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20Transport
Industry
Non-combusted
Buildings
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Three windows on the energy transition
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Five key questions
19
• Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough?
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• Just how fast will renewable energy grow?
• How resilient is the outlook for natural gas?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Five key questions
20
• Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough?
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• Just how fast will renewable energy grow?
• How resilient is the outlook for natural gas?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Carbon emissions continue to rise in the ET scenario
21
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
0
10
20
30
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Billion tonnes CO2
0
10
20
30
40
Evolving
transitionEven faster transition
Othersectors
CCUS
Power
Fuel switching
Carbon emissions in 2040: EFT versus ET scenario
Energyintensity
© BP p.l.c. 201822
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Transport
Industry &Buildings
CCUS
Power
Billion tonnes CO2 in 2040
Reductions in carbon emissions:EFT versus ET scenario
Impact of faster transition on global energy system
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20
2016 ET FT EFT
Renew.
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
2040
Primary energy consumption under different scenarios
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Five key questions
23
• Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough?
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• Just how fast will renewable energy grow?
• How resilient is the outlook for natural gas?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Penetration of electric cars in 2040
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Penetration of electric cars in 2040
Share of global car parc
~15%
Share of Vkm
~30%
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Electricity
Gas
Liquids
Trillion km
Car kilometres by fuel type
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Private - autonomous
Shared - autonomous
Shared - human driver
New mobility share of Vkm
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Liquid fuel demand from passenger cars
27
18.7
22.6 18.2
2.5
2.0
18.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2016 Growth indemand for travel
Tightening in vehicleefficiency standards
Shared mobilityEVs
2040
Switch to EVs
Other gains in fuel efficiency
Changes in liquids demand from cars: 2016-2040
Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars
28
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Electric car sales as a share of total car sales
Share of total passenger Vkm powered by electricityShareShare
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Impact of ICE ban
29
Passenger cars liquids demand
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2016 Evolving transition ICE ban
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Carbon emissions from energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
Even faster transition
2016 2040
Billion tonnes CO2Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Impact of ICE ban
30
Passenger cars liquids demand
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2016 Evolving transition ICE ban
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Carbon emissions from energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transitionICE banEven faster transition
2016 2040
Mb/d Billion tonnes CO2
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Five key questions
31
• Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough?
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• Just how fast will renewable energy grow?
• How resilient is the outlook for natural gas?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Cars TrucksNon-road Non-combustedIndustry BuildingsPower
Liquids demand
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005- 2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
Power Buildings
Industry Non-combusted
Transport Total
Mb/d, average annual growthMb/d
Liquids demand growth
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Demand for liquid fuels by scenario
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Liquids demand
Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Demand for liquid fuels by scenario
34
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Evolving transition
ICE ban
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Supply with no investment
Liquids demand
(3% decline rate)
Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Five key questions
35
• Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough?
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• Just how fast will renewable energy grow?
• How resilient is the outlook for natural gas?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Rapid growth in renewable energy
36
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000-2016 2016-2030 2030-2040
OECD
China
Other
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
TWh, average annual growth Largest gains in market share over 25 years, %pts
Growth of renewable power Pace of power market penetration
Nuclear
(1966-1991)
Gas
(1985-2010)
Renewables
(2015-2040)
© BP p.l.c. 2018
‘Renewables push’ scenario
37
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Evolvingtransition
Renewables push
Renewables share of power growth 2016-2040
© BP p.l.c. 2018
‘Renewables push’ scenario
38
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Evolvingtransition
Renewables push
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Evolvingtransition
Renewables push
Evenfaster
transition
Change in carbon intensity of power2016-2040
Renewables share of power growth 2016-2040
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Five key questions
39
• Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough?
• What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution?
• When is global oil demand likely to stop growing?
• Just how fast will renewable energy grow?
• How resilient is the outlook for natural gas?
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Growth in natural gas demand
40
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2016 2040
Transport Buildings
Power Non-combusted
Industry
Gas consumption by sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2016 2040
N America EuropeChina India & Other AsiaMiddle East CISAfrica Other
Gas consumption by region
Bcf/dBcf/d
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gasGas demand increase
2016-2040
41
Billion toe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Evolvingtransition
Less gasswitch
Industry Buildings
Transport Non-combusted
Power
Switching
Other effects
© BP p.l.c. 2018
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Evolvingtransition
Less gasswitch
Industry Buildings
Transport Non-combusted
Power
Gas demand increase2016-2040
42
-1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Evolvingtransition
Less gas switch
Renewables push
Faster transition
Even fastertransition
Gas demand growth2016-2040
Billion toe % per annum
Switching
Other effects
© BP p.l.c. 2018
The energy transition: mapping the uncertainty
43
• Some aspects of energy transition seem relatively likely:
➢ global energy demand continues to grow – driven by increasing prosperity
➢ slower growth as we learn to do more with less
➢ increasing abundance and diversification of energy supplies
➢ renewable energy growing in importance
➢ oil and gas continue to play a central role in the global energy system
• Other aspects remain far more uncertain:
➢ impact of EVs and autonomy in reshaping transport sector
➢ role of natural gas and renewables in lower carbon transition
➢ how will we achieve a more decisive break from past to achieve sharp fall in carbon emissions?
Advancing theenergy transition
www.bp.com/energytransition
Our strategy for the energy transition
45
Growinggas and
advantagedoil in the Upstream
Market ledgrowth in theDownstream
Venturing and low carbon across
multiple fronts
Modernisingthe whole
Group
Our commitment to advance a low carbon future
46
Creating and building low carbon businesses
Getting into action – Lightsource BP
Getting into action – Fulcrum Bioenergy
Getting into action – Chargemaster
Acquisition of the UK’s biggest electric vehicle charging network
The Global Energy Transition: Exploring the Uncertainty
International Symposium, University of Tokyo, December 2018
Paul Appleby– BP Group Strategic Planning