the german electricity market - current state and issues€¦ · · 2013-01-24the german...
TRANSCRIPT
| www.gtai.com
The German Electricity Market -
Current State and Issues
Heiko Staubitz
Germany Trade & Invest
15.01.2013
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Main Objectives
The Energy Concept (2010)
Energy efficiency measures
Increase in energy productiveness 2.1% p.a.
Reduction of energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008)
Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008)
Renovation rate 2% p.a.
Reduction of energy for transportation -40% (2050 vs. 2005)
Climate protection measures 2020 2050
CO2 cuts vs. 1990 -40% -80%
Renewable share of… 2020 2050
Total energy consumption 18% 60%
Electricity consumption 35% 80%
Heat generation 14% 60%
2
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
Plant utilization of conventional power plants remains the highest.
Electricity Supply
Average Hours of Yearly Full Load of
German Power Plants (2010)
7.330
6.600 6.400
3.870 3.820
3.180
1.380 1.210
1.100 900
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Year: 8,760 h
3
Source: BMU 2012, BDEW 2012
Energy Source Share in Installed
Capacity (2011)
Nuclear
Power
7%
Lignite
12%
Hard Coal
16%
Natural
Gas
15% Oil and
Others
11%
Hydro-electricity
Biomass
7%
Wind
Power
17%
Photo-
voltaic
15%
Total: 167.8 GW Annual peak load: app. 80 GW wind power: 29.06 GW PV power: 24.7 GW
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
The share of renewable energy and natural gas in electricity generation
has increased substantially since 1999.
Source: BDEW 2012
Electricity Supply
Nuclear
Power
31%
Lignite
24%
Hard Coal
25%
Natural
Gas
10%
Oil,
Pumped
Storage
4%
Renewable
Energies
5%
Energy Source Share in Net Electricity
Generation (1999)
Energy Source Share in Net*
Electricity Generation (2011)
Total: 518 TWh Total: 579 TWh
4
*Reducing the gross electricity share of 614.5 TWh by the power
plants own consumption of 35,2 TWh.
Nuclear
Power
18%
Lignite
24%
Hard Coal
18%
Natural
Gas
14%
Oil and
Others
5%
Hydro-
electricity
Biomass
10%
Wind
Power
8%
Photo-
voltaic
3%
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Electricity demand
230 227 239 240 243 245 249 250 254 255 252 227 250 252
130 131 131 134 137 139 140 141 142 140 140 139
142 140
103 107 108 109 113 117 119 119 120 121 121 120
124 124 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 17
16 17 17
8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
9 9 9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry Households Trade, Commerce & Services Transportation Agriculture
Net Electricity Consumption by Consumer Group in Germany (1998-2011,
in TWh)
5
The German industry is the main consumer of electricity.
Source: BDEW 2012 Note: * estimated ** preliminary, estimated
487.5 488.4 501.4
507.7 516.2 525
531.9 534.2 539.6 538.4 541.2 540.8
541.1
510.6
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
9,15 8,51
5,46 5,62 5,99 6,17 7,02
7,65
9,26 9
10,7
8,7 8,63 8,83 8,52
0,11
0,11
0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11
0,11 0,11
0,11 0,11
0,11
0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11
0,08
0,09
0,2 0,24
0,35
0,42
0,51 0,69
0,88 1,02
1,16
1,31 2,05
3,53 3,59
0,13
0,19
0,05 0,05
0,05 0,05
0,05 0,205
0,05
0,05 0,05
0,03 0,04
0,15
0,26
0,31 0,36 1,23
1,23 1,23
1,23 1,23
1,23
1,23 1,23
1,54 1,54 0,07
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Generation, Transport, Distribution Concession levy Renewable Energy Act contribution
CHP-allocation Electricity tax §19 allocation
1. Source: IE-Leipzig 2010
2. Note: *Estimations based on BDEW
Components of the Electricity Price
6
Development and Composition of Electricity Prices for Industrial Customers in
Germany (1998-2012, in EUR ct/kWh)*
Electricity prices for the industry have been rising almost without interruption -
mainly due to taxes and duties.
Source: BDEW, VEA, 2012 * electricity consumption from 100 kW/1600H up to 4000 kW/5000h
13,87
9,34
8,86
6,16
6,47 6,86 7,98
8,92
9,73
11,53
11,56 13,25
11,4
12,07 14,04
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
There are several hardship provisions available from the government to
cope with the electricity costs.
Source: BAFA 2012
Means to Reduce the Cost
Chemicals 27%
Paper
17% NE-Metals
11%
Steel &
Ferric Industry
15%
Others
30%
Hardship Provision According to EEG by
Sector (2011, % of privileged electr.)
7
EEG can be lowered depending on energy
consumption:
• 1–≤10 GWh/a: 10% of regular EEG
•10-≤100 GWh/a: 1% of regular EEG
•>100 GWh/a: 0.05 cent/kWh
Focus on energy-intensive industry
Reguirements:
Consumption of more than 1 GWh/a
Electricity cost/gross value added: 14%
Certificate for potentials to lower energy
consumption (ISO 50001)
Electricity tax for companies is lowered to 75% of
regular tarif: 1.54 ct/kWh
In addition, companies can be refunded with up to
90% of the paid electricity taxes
Requirement: Consumption of more than 48 MWh/a
Reduced Electricity Tax and Recompensation
Hardship Provision According to §§ 40 EEG
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
Industrial Electricity Prices
8
European comparison shows that annual industrial electricity tariffs in
Germany are in the upper range.
Source: Eurostat 2012; Note: Prices incl. taxes, without VAT *latest data available refers to 2008
Avge. annual industrial electricity tariffs (€-
Cent/kWh, incl. taxes, without VAT, 2009)*
Electricity Prices for Industry (2011,
EUR ct/kWh, 0.5-2 GWh)
Electricity Prices for Industry (2011,
EUR ct/kWh, 20-70 GWh)
6,48
8,03
8,49
8,93
9,52
9,82
9,92
10,14
10,25
10,68
10,98
11,08
11,37
11,55
12,48
12,76
15,28
0 5 10 15 20
Bulgaria
Romania
France
Sweden
Hungary
UK
Denmark
Poland
Netherlands
Austria*
Belgium
Czech Rep.
Spain
Ireland
Germany
Slovak Rep.
Italy
5,14
6,28
7,15
7,18
7,69
7,84
7,89
8,12
8,39
8,42
8,82
8,88
8,95
10,02
10.20
10,67
12,2
0 5 10 15
Bulgaria
Romania
France
Sweden
Ireland
Netherlands
Spain
Poland
Belgium
UK
Denmark
Hungray
Austria*
Germany
Czech Rep.
Slovak Rep.
Italy
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
Germany offers slightly higher electricity prices for households.
Source: Eurostat 2012; Note: Consumption: 2,500 kWh < 5,000 kWh
Electricity Prices for Private Households
9
Average annual electricity prices for private households (2011, EUR-cent/kWh, incl.
all taxes)
8,26
10,82
12,5
13,84
14,33
14,71
14,95
15,4
16,81
16,82
17,43
19,01
19,47
19,86
20,13
20,92
21,33
21,36
25,28
29,08
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Bulgaria
Romania
Greece
France
UK
Poland
Czech Rep.
Finland
Hungary
Slovak Rep.
Netherlands
Ireland
Spain
Austria
Italy
Sweden
Norway
Belgium
Germany
Denmark
15.01.2013 www.gtai.com
Electricity Supply
10
The German electricity grid is one of the most secure in Europe.
Source: Umweltbundesamt 2011, Bundeskartellamt, 2011 *including electricity from renewable energies
Power Plants with more than
100 MW Capacity (2011)
Nuclear Power
Hard Coal
Lignite
Natural Gas
Heating Oil
Smeltery Gas
Refinery Gas
Furnace Gas
Oil Residues
Wind Power
Hydroelectricity
Biomass 276,04
133,86
95,1
91,9
88,84
81,42
33,7
31,77
19,27
0 100 200 300
Portugal
Spain*
France
Sweden
Italy
UK
Netherlands
Austria
Germany
Minutes lost per Customer
(2010)**
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Power balance 2012
New power structure in 2022 will lead to bottle necks in Germany
Offshore- Wind parks
The Smart Grid Market Overview
Power balance 2022
Source: Netzentwicklungsplan 2012
11
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
More than 1.000 market participants are active in the fully liberalized
German electricity market.
Source: www.enet.eu; BMWi 2011
Smart Grid
• Four interconnected companies operate
transmission grids (and grids in the
lower voltage level)
• High voltage (up to 220 kV): 77.000 km,
4% underground cables
• extra high voltage (380 kV): 35.000 km,
4% underground cables
• Total: 1,000 market participants: Mainly
municipal utilities (Stadtwerke)
• App. 100 small private companies
• 150 new market participants
• Low voltage (up to 230 or 400 V):
1.123.000 km, 80% underground cables
• Medium voltage (up to 60 kV): 479.000
km, 64% underground cables
Transmission Grid
869 Operators of Distribution Grids
German Transmission Grid
(2012)
German Distribution Grid
(2010)
12
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Network Expansion
Expansion requirements for the transmission and distribution grid
Grid expansion of 3,800km (2100km DC, 1700 AC) is required by 2020.
Baseline scenario with overhead lines requires:
20 bn. €
The connection of the offshore-grid is estimated to
10-12 bn. €
Transmission grid
By 2030, the expansion of the distribution grid requires investments of
€ 25 bn
Distribution grid
13
Sources: VKU, 2012; Netzentwicklungsplan 2012
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
State of the art 2040
PV - Own consumption 0.4% of the overall generated PV power is used for own consumption
2025: 20% of PV generated power for own consumption (35% in 2040).
Control reserve Required control reserve of ~14-17 GW
In 2025 the demand for control reserve increases by 50% to 2010 and by 70% in 2040.
Surplus energy Storage demand for a surplus of 150 GWh (2010)
Storage necessity 2025-2030: 3.5-8 TWh 2040-2050: 40 TWh
Potential for Energy Storage in Germany
Sources: DB Research 2012, BCG 2011, DENA Netzstudie II 2011, BAFA, Bundesnetzagentur, BMU Leitstudie 2011
14
Expected: Investment of € 25 - 30 billion in storage capacity until 2030
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com 15
The Principle of „Own-Consumption“
Wattage
Time of day
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h
Feed-in tariff: 12.00 to 19.50 €ct/kWh1
Energy from grid: Costs ~25 €ct/kWh2
Major income through cost savings on electricity from the grid, Feed-in tariff only for surplus electricity:
PV Energy
Energy Demand
„Own-Consumption“ of PV Energy
(saves ~25 €ct./kWh²)
Notes: 1) Depending on size /type of system; Min. to max . tariff in 2012 of new EEG 2012 2) Depending on electricity retail price of respective utility company.
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com 15
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com 16
The German PV Market reached „Grid-Parity“ in 2011
* Model calculation for rooftop systems >30 kWp, <100 kWp; based on 802 kWh/kWp (Frankfurt), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs
Sources: Feed-in Tariffs: BMU 2012, pending final approval; System Prices: BSW 2012; System Price Forecast: EPIA 2011; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices 2007-2011: Eurostat 2012 [Private households with annual consumption >2500 kWh, <5000 kWh]; Electricity Price Forecast 2011-2015: Prognos 2012 [Price Forecast 2016: 28,20 €ct./kWh]
“… PV can develop within a few years from the most expensive to one of the cheapest types of power generation from renewables.” (BMU 2011)
New EEG 2012
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Control reserve
17
Easy market entry for smaller players in the field of control reserve
Primary control reserve (PCR)
Secondary control reserve (SCR)
Tertiary control reserve (TCR)
Time for activation 30 s 5 min 15 min
Availability Up to 15 min 15 min to 1hr Minimum of 15 min
required min. bids by regulator
1 MW 5 MW 5 MW (10 MW**)
Tendering period weekly daily
Focus on new technologies
Flexible/controllable plants, battery storage systems, renewable energy systems at direct marketing
Today for energy storage and control reserve only hydro pump and gas power
Plants attending at the Balancing Energy Market in Germany.
Legislative framework has been changed to open the market for innovative storage
technologies.
IRR is depending on the technology used and on the control reserve segment
targeted
** As transition bid amount before definitive reduction to 5 MW
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Surplus energy
18
Source: Gerhardt IWES 2011, ZSW 2011
Surplus starts at 40-50% fluctuating renewable share
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
wer in
GW
---
En
erg
y i
n T
Wh
Hours
Days
Weeks
Months
Years
hours2
days2
weeks2
month2
years2
Balancing...
Renew. Share: 43% 68% 88%
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
guaranteed feed-in tariff
electricity price
marketpremium
managementpremium
1) Feed-in tariff(EEG 2012 remuneration)
2) Direct marketing scheme
Elements of available remuneration schemes
Market PremiumDifference between electricity price and feed-in tariff (EEG 2012 remuneration). If a supplier sells its electricity at a price higher than the average price, it can make an additional profit.
Electricity PriceFor calculation, reference value is used - based on the average monthly electricity price reached at the electricity market (EEX).
Management Premium
To cover the cost of participating in trading and deviations from
forecasting. Paid as a lump sum:
Year 2012: 1.20 €ct/kWh | Year 2013: 0,65 €ct/kWh
Year 2014: 0.45 €ct/kWh | From 2015: 0.30 €ct/kWh
A higher premium is paid if plants are equipped with remote control technique.Additional profits are possible through exact feed-in calculation and management.
Operators of renewable energy facilities have two options for remuneration:
1) Feed-in tariff remuneration or 2) Direct sale under the direct marketing scheme
To improve market and system integration, incentives for direct selling
of power from renewable energy have been established.
Source: Renewable Energies Sources Act (EEG) 2012; Managementprämienverordnung MaPrV 29.08.2012
The Optional Market Premium
19
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com
Conclusion
20
1. Pressure on the grid is increasing as many additional GWs of PV and wind will
come on-line.
2. Short term: rising interest for “developing markets” like balancing energy,
direct marketing of renewable and self-consumption
3. Long term: rising interest for seasonal storage from surplus energy
4. Different players like energy traders, utilities, system integrators, project
developers are looking for “new solution” to participate in “developing
markets” and export markets.
5. Further development will depend
largely on changes in the legislation,
progress in the grid extension
and new business models
15.01.2013 | www.gtai.com 21
Mumbai Office Tokyo Office
Berlin - Headquarters
Mr. Tobias Homann Senior Manager Photovoltaics T. +49 30 200 099-391 [email protected]
Mr. Thomas Grigoleit Director Renewable Energies & Resources T. +49 30 200 099-224 [email protected]
Mr. Tobias Rothacher Senior Manager Photovoltaics and Bioenergy T. +49 30 200 099-225 [email protected]
Contact Data – GTAI Investment Consulting
Mr. Markus Hempel China Representative Beijing, China T. +86 10 6539 6725 F. +86 10 6590 6167 [email protected]
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
© 2013 Germany Trade & Invest All information provided by Germany Trade & Invest has been put together with the utmost care. However, we assume no liability for the accuracy of the information provided.
Mr. Iwami Asakawa Japan Representative Tokyo, Japan T. +81 3 5275 2072 F. +81 3 5275 2012 [email protected]
Mr. Claus Habermeier Director New York, USA T: +1 212 584 9715 F: +1 212 262 6449 [email protected]
Ms. Angelika Geiger Director San Francisco, USA T: +1 415 248 1246 F: +1 415 627 9169 [email protected]
Ms. Flérida Regueira Cortizo Senior Manager Environmental Technologies T. +49 30 200 099-230 [email protected]
Ms. Asha-Maria Sharma India Representative Mumbai, India T. +91 22 66 65 21 80 [email protected]
New York Office San Francisco Office
Beijing Office
Renewable Energy and Resources Division:
Mr. Heiko Staubitz Senior Manager Energy Storage / Smart Grid T. +49 30 200 099-226 [email protected]
Mr. Jonas Rabe Manager Wind T. +49 30 200 099-228 [email protected]
Ms. Esther Frey Manager Wind T. +49 30 200 099-253 [email protected]
Ms. Anne Bräutigam Manager Wind T. +49 30 200 099-228 [email protected]