TAJIKISTAN

MARCH-APRIL 2010

Prof. Saodat Olimova*Bimonthly article

Highlights

The transport blockade introduced by Uzbekistanis one of the highlights of March-April. Since Januarycargo cars heading to Tajikistan have been stoppedunder different excuses on the territory ofUzbekistan. Currently there are more than 2000cargo railway cars waiting to leave on the territoryof Uzbekistan. They contain oil products, food,construction materials, equipment, and othersmaterials that are vital for Tajikistan. The blockadeof the cargo trains in Uzbekistan led to complicationsof diplomatic relations between the two countries.

On March 22 the Ministry for Foreign Affairs ofTajikistan handed over to the ambassador ofUzbekistan a note of protest regarding the delay ofcargo trains on the territory of Uzbekistan. TheUzbek party declared that the reasons of delays oftransiting cargo trains through the territory ofUzbekistan are technical problems that are relatedto «an increase in traffic of goods and a bigcongestion of the railway infrastructure of Uzbekistandue to its obligations to ensure transit of nonmilitaryand humanitarian cargoes heading to and fromAfghanistan».

The transport blockade led to a rise in prices fordifferent commodities in Tajikistan and to a threatof shut down of a number of enterprises operatingin Tajikistan. In particular, farmers cannot conductsome agricultural activities because of a lack of fueland fertilizers. In order to resolve the conflictsituation, the prime minister of Tajikistan AqilAqilov, while being in the United Nationsheadquarters, addressed the general secretary of theUnited Nations Pan Gi Moon and asked him to assistin the prompt resolution of the Tajik-Uzbek crisis.The issue regarding the blockade of railway cargo

trains was resolved during Pan Gi Moon's visit toUzbekistan and Tajikistan. In the end of March thefirst trains were allowed to pass from Uzbekistan toTajikistan. Currently Uzbekistan lets 4-5 trains toTajikistan, retaining all the other cargo trains on itsterritory.

On April 27th the government delegation of Tajikistanvisited Tashkent. The focus of the negotiations wasthe transit of cargo trains through the territory ofUzbekistan. The Uzbek party offered that Tajikgovernment suspends construction of RogunHydroelectric Power Plant (Rogun HPP) in returnfor letting the cargo trains to pass to Tajikistan. Thus,it has become clear that the transport blockadeinitiated by Uzbekistan is a part of the hydro-powerconflict in Central Asia. The current stage of theconflict is related to the ongoing of construction ofRogun HPP and to the fund-raising campaign forfinancing of this construction project. Tajikauthorities hope to end the energy crisis and toexpand the national economy by completing theconstruction of Rogun HPP. In order to achieve this,officials have collected more than $180 million dollarsthrough compulsory and voluntary sales of RogunHPP's shares among the population of Tajikistan.

Uzbek authorities demand the suspension ofconstruction of Rogun HPP until implementation ofevaluations by an international examinationcommission. According to Uzbek officials, the erectionof Rogun dam will cause deficit of water on theterritory of Uzbekistan and will lead to an ecologicaldisaster. This position voiced by the president ofUzbekistan Islam Karimov was supported by thehead of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, whereasthe intention to continue construction of Rogun HPPexpressed by the president of Tajikistan EmomaliRahmon was supported by the president of

*Deputy Director, Research Center Sharq, Dushanbe.

http://www.asiacentral.es

The Central Asia Observatory (CAO)was established in 2007 by threeinstitutions that are interested in thearea: Casa Asia, CIDOB Foundationand Royal Institute Elcano

1

May 2010

Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. Itis necessary to recognize that these opposingpositions of the presidents of Kazakhstan andTurkmenistan are not determinate. In addition,Russian officials express support for the officialposition of Uzbek authorities. Therefore, the only"true" ally of Tajikistan in its "water" conflict withUzbekistan is Kyrgyzstan.

The issue of the ongoing and the projectedconstruction of Rogun HPP was discussed with theIMF and the World Bank officials. It was decidedthat an independent construction feasibility reportand socially-ecological evaluation of consequencesof construction of the plant should be conductedfirst. The government of Tajikistan also made adecision to stop advertising the fund-raisingcampaign for construction of Rogun HPP. Accordingto the memorandum which was signed by thegovernment of Tajikistan and the World Bank, theWorld Bank should assist in financing theconstruction of Rogun HPP if the independentexamination commission concludes thatconstruction of Rogun HPP entails no negativeconsequence.

Internal affairs of the country

Main events of internal policy of Tajikistan in March-April were parliamentary elections and the annualpresidential address in the parliament.

At the end of March elections in the upper chamberof parliament of Tajikistan (Majlisi Milli Majlisi Oli)took place. Majlisi Milli consists of 33 members: 25of them are elected by local governmental authoritieson the basis of territorial division, and 8 membersof upper chamber of parliament are assigned by thepresident of Tajikistan for the period of service ofthe chamber. According to the voting legislation,each member of Majlisi Milli is in service for 5 years.

After the elections, on April 24, 2010, presidentRahmon gave a speech at the first joint session ofboth chambers of parliament of Tajikistan. In hisspeech, president Rahmon named major directionsand prospects of domestic and international politicsof Tajikistan. At the beginning of the speech Presidentanalyzed how social and economic activities of thecountry helped to achieve three major goals:achievement of independence in the sphere of energy,development of communications, and achievementof food security. President Rahmon expressedgratitude to the people of Tajikistan for financial andmoral support for the construction of Rogunhydroelectric power plant (Rogun HPP) andprohibited compulsory sales of Rogun HPP's shares.

The president expressed concerns about the lack ofconnection between ordinary citizens and heads ofministries, departments, cities, and regions of thecountry. The president pointed out that many officialsare unavailable for regular people and that officialsshould have regular meetings with ordinary citizensevery Saturday.

Another issue of concern in the president's speechwas improvement in management of labor migration.President Rahmon pointed out the necessity of a newstate agency responsible for migration problems.

The president also expressed concerns about the lackof knowledge of laws and legal procedures, educationfor youth, and healthy life style. In addition, thepresident suggested that the marriage age should beraised from 17 to 18 years old for women.

When addressing international politics, presidentRahmon confirmed the principle of "open doors,"which was announced 8 years ago. The presidentstressed out the sharpening of the geopoliticalsituation in Central Asia and the necessity of rationaland careful international politics for Tajikistan. "Weare planning to consolidate and enlarge cooperation,especially with Central Asian countries and Russia,

http://www.asiacentral.es

2

who is our strategic partner," said the president."Moreover, Tajikistan will develop its relations andconnections with USA, France, Germany, and otherdeveloped countries. Also we plan to maintaintraditional connections and good relations withMuslim countries, Arab nations and other regionssuch as Iran, Afghanistan, India, Turkey, Pakistan,and Japan," noted the president.

The president specifically dwelled on the events inKyrgyzstan. Rahmon pointed out that the change ofleaders in Kyrgyzstan is an internal business of thiscountry; Tajikistan, in turn, hopes for normalizingof the situation in Kyrgyzstan in the near future anddevelopment of regional cooperation.

In March-April, 2010, after 13 years of absence ofpoliomyelitis, several people were diagnosed withthis disease in Tajikistan. In 2002, Tajikistan wascertified as a country free from poliomyelitis. Theinfected individuals were registered in South-Westernpart of the country. By April 22, 2010, World HealthOrganization received information about 128 casesof poliomyelitis infection in Tajikistan, 12 of whichhad lethal outcomes. World Health Organizationurgently delivered 4 million doses of oral vaccinefrom poliomyelitis. The Ministry of Public Health ofTajikistan started mass immunization of childrenunder 6 years old in the country.

Foreign and international policy

The main topic of international relations in March-April, 2010, was worsening of relations betweenTajikistan and Uzbekistan in the context of the"water-energy" conflict in Central Asia. The conflictbetween Tajikistan and Uzbekistan was reflected inthe commercial and economic relations betweenthese two countries. During the first quarter of 2010,the trade turnover between Tajikistan andUzbekistan fell down to $19,4 million, which is only36,6% of the trade turnover in the first quarter of2009.

The General Secretary of United Nations Pan GiMoon paid close attention to controversies betweenTajikistan and Uzbekistan during his visit toTajikistan on April, 5, 2010. The General Secretaryof UN came to Tajikistan from Uzbekistan where hevisited disappearing Aral sea. While discussing theconstruction of Rogun hydroelectric power plant, hepointed out the importance and necessity of"independent and objective scientific estimation ofseismological, hydrological, and other issues relatedto the construction of Rogun HPP." The GeneralSecretary said, "Leaders of Tajikistan as well as ofUzbekistan will have to reconcile with the finaldecision made by the World Bank concerningtechnical evaluation of construction of Rogun HPP."The General Secretary also urged Uzbekistan toresolve the problem of blocking cargo trains headingto Tajikistan; he pointed out that Tajik farmers shouldbe receive fuel, fertilizers, and seeds on time. Thedelay in delivery of cargo may hinder the work ofTajik farmers and lead to future negativeconsequences for Tajikistan.

Another issue of the talks between General SecretaryPan Gi Moon and the president of Tajikistan EmomaliRahmon was de-mining of the border territorybetween Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (the border wasmined by Uzbek border guards unilaterally). Pan GiMoon named the mining of the border as anti-humane.

Other important issues of international politicsincluded the official visit to Tajikistan by the presidentof Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedovon March 18-19, 2010; the contacts betweenTajikistan and leaders of Persian-speaking countriesduring the celebration of Navruz; talks betweenTajikistan and China during official visit of theMinister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan to China.

During the visit of the president of TurkmenistanGurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to Tajikistan theprospective bilateral relations between the two

http://www.asiacentral.es

3

countries and issues of regional and internationalpolitics were discussed. The key themes of discussionwere the following: use of water resources andAfghan problems including possible integration ofAfghanistan into regional infrastructure projects.Presidents of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan discussedparticipation of Afghanistan in realization of suchprojects as road construction from Turkmenistan toTajikistan through the territory of Afghanistandetouring Uzbekistan, as well as construction ofelectric power lines and gas pipeline along this route.President of Tajikistan also met with many regionalleaders of Iran during the celebration of Navruz,which took place in many Muslim countries.

On February, 2010, the General Assembly of UnitedNations passed a resolution where March, 21, wasannounced to be an international day of Navruz. Inprevious years, presidents of Persian- speakingcountries (Iran, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan)celebrated this day at joint meetings in each countryby taking turns. A similar meeting was supposed totake place this year in Afghan city of Mazari-Sharif,but it did not happen. Instead, the celebration tookplace in Iran, where the following leaders werepresent: leaders of Iran, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan,president of Iraq Jalal Talabani and president ofTurkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov,Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey Cemil Cicek, andMinister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan ElmarMamediarov.

One of the significant events of the internationalpolitics was talks between Tajikistan and Chinaduring the official visit of the Minister of ForeignAffairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi to China onApril 25 – 29. The parties discussed the level ofbilateral cooperation between Tajikistan and Chinaas well as cooperation of two countries in theframework of SOC (Shanghai Organization forCooperation). The realization of economic andcommercial projects and further prospects ofrelations between Tajikistan and China were also

discussed. The parties pointed out that despite thefinancial crisis the turnover between two countrieshas been growing at a high rate. In 2009, it exceeded$1.450 billion. The turnover between Tajikistan andChina increased 116 times during the past 16 years,which is also an evidence of developing economicrelations between two counties.

Since 2005, China has become one of the three majoreconomic partners of Tajikistan. Currently, China isthe major investor into economy of Tajikistan.Government of China supports large-scaleinfrastructure projects realized in Tajikistan, which,according to experts, is related to rapid developmentof bilateral commercial and economic relationsbetween Tajikistan and China. According to Ministerof Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Zarifi, since 2006Chinese corporations have been trying to participateactively in most important fields of economy ofTajikistan: metal mining and textile industry,telecommunications and construction.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Zarifi andMinister of Foreign Affairs of China Yang Jiechidiscussed issues interesting for both parties and theoverall situation in Central Asian region, especiallyin Kyrgyzstan. The ministers shared the opinion thatthe situation in Kyrgyzstan is an internal issue, whichdoes not require external interference. Another issueof discussion during the talks was a prospectivemeeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of participantsof SOC. After the meeting between Ministers of Chinaand Tajikistan, bilateral agreements including theprogram of cooperation between Tajikistan and Chinawere signed.

During the period, Tajikistan took part in activitiesensuring security in the region. At the end of April,Tajik military participated in joint military exercisesof heads of staffs of the collective forces of rapidresponse of the system of collective security of CentralAsian region. The name of the military exercises is"Rubezh 2010." The military exercises were under

http://www.asiacentral.es

4

command of the Minister of Defense of TajikistanSherali Hairulloev.

More than a thousand soldiers from participatingmembers of Organization of Agreement of CollectiveSecurity (OACS) which includes Tajikistan, Russia,Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Byelorussiatook part in the exercises. The goal of the exerciseswas to practice counter-terrorist activities in regionsalong the border with Afghanistan.

Economy and business enterprises

A stable growth of economy was observed in the firstquarter of 2010. GDP increased by 6,8 % andcurrently is $909 million. Currently GDP consistsof manufacturing sector - 30 % of GDP, services –57.9 % of GDP, and tax collections - 12,1 % of GDP.

The rate of inflation over the three months was 1,6%. Somoni appreciated with respect to the US dollar by 0.09% since beginning of the year. The foreigntrade turnover of Tajikistan in January-March 2010reached $793,9 million, which is 0,9 % less than inthe same period last year. The press-release of theState Statistical Agency informs that over this periodthe trade balance is negative $288.3 million.

Exports of goods reached $252.8 million and importsof goods reached $541.1 million. In general importsof goods exceeded export 2.1 times, or by $288.3million. The main trading partners of Tajikistanamong the CIS countries are Russia with $196,5million of total trade turnover, Kazakhstan - $62,1million, Ukraine - $28,4 million. Among othercountries the main trade partners are China with$138,5 million of total trade turnover, Turkey - $99,6million and Iran $49,8 million. The volume ofremittances in this period was increased by 5.6 %in comparison to the similar period last year.Currently the bank refinancing rate is 8%.

Despite the negative consequences of the worldfinancial crisis the bank system of Tajikistan continuesto develop. According to National Bank of Tajikistanthe number of banking organizations in has 2010increased. Currently there are 14 banks, 7 non-bankcredit organizations, 31 depositary microcreditorganization, 42 microcredit organizations, 43microcredit funds. In the first quarter of the currentyear the volume of deposits has grown by 31.5%.

In the first quarter of 2010 the price index for foodproducts increased by 1.1%, the price index of non-food consumer goods increased 1.4%, the prices ofservices increased by 3.9%. The cost of a monthlyconsumer basket per person at end of March reached$23.5 dollars.

Prices for air service on internal airlines weredrastically raised by 12-20%. The introduction of apaid Dushanbe-Chanak road, which connectsnorthern Tajikistan with the capital city Dushanbe,also raised prices of transportation services . Thegovernment decided to introduce tolls for the use ofthis newly constructed road to repay the Chinese loanof 280 million US dollars which was spent onreconstruction of this road.

The government of Tajikistan hired the companytitled Innovative Road Solution (IRS) to manage thetolling booths and collect fees. IRS was registered inthe end of 2009 on Virgin islands, which is one ofthe offshore zones. Residents of settlements locatedalong the road were forced to pay daily hefty fees toused the road. However, after the local residentsblocked traffic on the road, the fees for using the roadby local residents were lowered. Nevertheless, localresidents and journalists continue arguing to cancelor lower the toll fees.

http://www.asiacentral.es

5

The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the positions of the Central Asia Observatory (CAO).The institutions that constitute the CAO are not responsible for the useof these contents.

© Central Asia Observatory