the future of work...charlie chaplin modern times (1936) the conventional way of thinking about work...
TRANSCRIPT
Two Questions
Is thinking about
“the Future of Work”
the Right Question to be Thinking
about?
If so…
“work”
Are we
thinking about
the
right way?
The evolution of
“increasingly capable machines”
is THE Story of Our Times
Through History Many Great Thinkers Have Thought Deeply About the Relationship Between Man & Machine
Charlie Chaplin Modern Times (1936)
The ConventionalWay of
Thinking about Work
Headlines focus on
job losses and gains.
Relationship Between Man & Machine
wielding shovels and the lack of bull dozers,
tractors and large earth moving equipment.
In the 1960s, Herb Simon visited a construction site in Asia
He commented on the large number of workers
Relationship Between Man & Machine
Government official explained
the project was intended as a “jobs program.”
Relationship Between Man & Machine
Friedman responded,
“So then, why not give the workers spoons.”
Key Question Which Will Be Asked
in the Workplaces of the Future
Do workers have the tools that make them as
productive as possible?
Relationship Between Man & Machine
Friedman’s remark captures the skepticism and
outright derision
expressed by economists confronting fears about
the prospect of
machines destroying jobs and creating long-term
unemployment
Alternative View
On the one hand… General Discussion
“The deployment of new technology has eliminated
millions of jobs over the course of history.”
New technologies have also produced
millions of new jobs over that time.
What Labor Statistic Should We
Be Focusing on?General Discussion
Jobs Created?
Productivity per Individual Employee?
[Before jobs start disappearing] “My view is we are going to go through a door where the workers are
more productive because of the digital tools. They are not being replaced.
[Augmentation not automation]
Mad Money [15 FEB 2017]
“We are making workers more productive everyday. We are going to make our workers smarter.
And then we will see where we go after that.”
Mad Money [15 FEB 2017]
The ConventionalWay of
Thinking about Work
Technology is labeled
as “Villain”
Machines are becoming“increasingly capable”
.
Grant Wood, American Gothic [1930]
The “mainstream”is thinking about
“Robo”
Grant Wood, American Gothic [1930]
Alexa was the big news at CES 2017
Michael Keithleyand his team at CAA had spent
decades of millionsand thousands of man hours
trying to get senior management to use the data
provided by enterprise systems
AIIM ELC Costa Mesa, CA[14 DEC 2016]
As a last resort they cobbled together
3 key reports and coded up a SKL for Alexa
and showed it to the CEO
AIIM ELC Costa Mesa, CA[14 DEC 2016]
”I want all my direct reports to have this.”
AIIM ELC Costa Mesa, CA[14 DEC 2016]
“And by the way this is how I wantto interface with all of your systems. Not just Salesforce – EVERY system.”
Short TermFuture of Work
Rendering ALL Systems Accessible to Conversational AI
Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home[1986]
Observation“Increasingly capable machines”
[Systems of Intelligence]are now collecting information
about practically every facet of human activityon a continual, pervasive and
uncontrollable basis, with no option to ’turn off’ the activity.
Tatsuro Kiuchi
Hypothesis
There will be lots of work/job potential
associated with
Data ESP
[Exploitation, Sharing & Protection]
Hypothesis
There will be lots of work/job potential
associated with leading/managing data
management[e.g., ensuring appropriate
controls, processes and procedures are established]
Who would you point them towards?
90 secondexercise
If your CEO came to you and said,“I would like to talk to three provocative voices
regarding the “Future of Work”
Report Backs
9
John Fairhill, c. 1975
What Patterns/Trends[if any]
do you perceivein your responses?
Did Anyone Mention:
Economists?
Gartner?Politicians?
Academics?
Leading Edge Practicioners?
A Future With Too Much Free Time?
Time [31 DEC 1965].
IN 1930, when the world was
“suffering…from a bad attack of
economic pessimism”,
John Maynard Keynes wrote a
broadly optimistic essay,
“Economic Possibilities for our
Grandchildren”.
One of the worries Keynes
admitted was a “new disease”:
“technological
unemployment…due to our
discovery of means of
economising the use of labour
outrunning the pace at which we
can find new uses for labour.”
Can’t one welcome the trend and be worried at the same time?
The community is divided, a Gartner report finds,
between those who welcome the trend
and those who are worried about
what it means to the human work force.
Futurists
are a non-homogeneous bunch
Some Futurists are:
“Entertainers” [Gerd Leonhard]
“Vendor-Friendly” [Brian Solis, Ray Wang]
“Exponential” [Ray Kurzweil]
“Intuitive” [Alvin Toffler]
“Crowd Sourced InfoFusers” [Intelligence Community]Christopher A. Kojm, Chairman, National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds [17 March 2014]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GQOImyctdkhttp://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf
“Aspirational” [Moshe Rubenstein]
“Dystopic” [Focus on Preventing Bad Things from Happening]
People thinking about Future of Work
13 FEB 2017
People thinking about Future of Work
Peter Fingar, Cognitive Computing: A Brief Guide for Game
Changers [https://goo.gl/YnURiq]
Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots and the Threat of a Jobless Future
[https://goo.gl/yU862g]
Jerry Kaplan, Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in an
Age of Artificial Intelligence [https://goo.gl/i6LsQ9]
John Markoff, Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground
Between Human and Robots [NPR Fresh Air https://goo.gl/o9ftmI ; PBS
News Hour https://goo.gl/CY3EDY]
Daniel and Richard Susskind, The Future of the Professions: How
Technology Will Transform the Work of Experts [https://goo.gl/lfh8sc]
“the social importance of what we are talking about is getting exponentially big.
We have just now crossed the Rubicon from the point of which this is just an expert
subject to where the public is engaged for better or worse.”
The “mainstream”is thinking about
“Robo”
Michael Froomkin, the Laurie Silvers &
Mitchell Rubenstein distinguished professor
of law at the University of Miami
School of Law, concluded
the WeRobot 2016 Conference by observing:
[April 2016]
The “mainstream”is thinking about
“Robo”
Amy Bernstein, HBR [October 2016]
“Labor Markets in a Tizzy”
As soon as you can get a robot for $5,000 instead of $100,000,
as soon as you can get AI with better voice recognition,
and as soon as you can get full contextual AI
that can anticipate and answer questions
without human intervention—
that’s going to throw the labor markets into a tizzy.
Amy Bernstein, HBR [October 2016]
Prediction
When full-scale robotics and AI arrive
in a broad-based, affordable, easily justifiable way,
we’ll see enormous waves of workers
put out of work.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/519241/report-suggests-nearly-half-of-us-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-computerization/
Prediction
2013 Oxford research report says that
45 percent of America’s occupations
will be automated within the next 20 years.
Longer TermThinking about Work
100 years from now〰When animals start to work
for even less money than robots…
Robots will be put out of work
“IncreasinglyCapable Machines”
are removing humansnot just from the
workforce
but from thebuyforce as well
Wild Cards
http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/18/amazon-pre-ships/
Algorithms
Revolution Showcase [retailing]
AMZN is linking second-to-none fulfillment service
with algorithmic strategy.
Scott Galloway @ DLD 2017 [16 JAN 2017]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFxdgZ1az9s
Revolution Showcase [retailing]
Amazon has built a fulfillment network
within 20 minutes of 45% of all
US households
Scott Galloway @ DLD 2017 [16 JAN 2017]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFxdgZ1az9s
Those 45% of households represent 70-80%
of disposable income.
See Many Workers?
Revolution Showcase [retailing]
Amazon’s next offer “Prime Squared”
AMZN knows so much about you –and has so much product within 20 minutes of you
they are going to begin sending youtwo boxes twice a week.
Scott Galloway @ DLD 2017 [16 JAN 2017]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFxdgZ1az9s
Revolution Showcase [retailing]
One box full of stuff AMZN thinks you want. Another box you use to send stuff
you don’t want back.
The box via which you send stuff you don’t want back
will get smaller and smaller.
Scott Galloway @ DLD 2017 [16 JAN 2017]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFxdgZ1az9s
Revolution Showcase [retailing]What is Revolutionary is linking
second-to-none fulfillment service with algorithmic strategy.
AMZN anticipates that Prime Squared households
will go from $1300 dollars/year to $10,000.
Amazon stock will become anti-gravity and Amazon will become the first trillion dollar
market cap company in the history of business.
Predictions
Planning and managing your people
will be done more and more by algorithms, not humans.
Algorithms can increasingly predict things like
employee turnover and future job performance
better than typical supervisors or hiring managers.
An analysis of 17 studies on applicant evaluations
concluded that equations outperform
human applicant-selection decisions by 25%.
HR Jobs Will Be Impacted
Rob Uselman,Head of Data Product Development
60 data points(X, Y, Z coordinates)
per stroke;32,000 strokes per event
40 events a year
Tee Left
Tee Center
Tee Right
Fairway
Primary Rough
Building
Green Side Bunker
Native Area
Grass Bunker
Water
Bridge
Fringe
Green
Cart Path
Other
Dirt Outline
Intermediate Rough
Landscaping
Path
Fairway Bunker
Tee Box
Tree Outline
Waste Bunker
Wall
Walk Strip
Bush
Rock Outline
Step
Water Drop area
Around the Green
Left Rough
Right Rough
Left Intermediate
Right Intermediate
Left Fairway
Right Fairway
Front Center Green Side Bunker
Front Left Green Side Bunker
Left Green Side Bunker
Left Rear Green Side Bunker
Rear Green Side Bunker
Right Rear Green Side Bunker
Right Green Side Bunker
Right Front Green Side Bunker
The PGA has the X, Y, and Z grid coordinates down to the square inch along with the location attributes for every golf
course we have played since 2003.
Content Relevancy Engine
This tool sifts through PGA data and produces one or more paragraphs
of content that is relative to a given situation.
For example if a player is one stroke behind the lead going into hole 17
and the pin is located on the right center of the green. The application
would produce a paragraph indicating that the player has birdied this
hole 20% of the time when the pin is located right center of the green
It might also produce a paragraph that says this player has been one
stroke behind the lead with two holes to go 5 times and has won
2 of the 5.
Predictions
Tom Rosaforte
Golf Announcing Jobs
Will Be Impacted
Gary Mccord
Machines are Starting to Tell Their Own Stories With Data
Does Anybody Recognize This Guy?
Master Business Platform• Industry Structure
• Competitors
• Markets & Buyers
• Economics
• Capital Structure & Sources
• Regulation & Public Policy
Master IT Platform• Industry Structure
• Technologies Available
• Venture & Major Funding
• Vendors (Master, Supporting)
• Functions & Price Points
Business Architecture• Products
• Markets
• Financials
• Supply Chains
• Business Process & Organization
• Governance
• Culture & Behavior
IT Architecture• Systems & Services
• Data
• IT Processes
• Technologies & Vendors
• Standards
• Governance & Organization
• IT Skills & Sourcing
Bruce Rogow’s World View
[adapted from John Henderson @BCG]
Page 60
Master Business Platform• Industry Structure
• Competitors
• Markets & Buyers
• Economics
• Capital Structure & Sources
• Regulation & Public Policy
Master IT Platform• Industry Structure
• Technologies Available
• Venture & Major Funding
• Vendors (Master, Supporting)
• Functions & Price Points
Business Architecture• Products
• Markets
• Financials
• Supply Chains
• Business Process & Organization
• Governance
• Culture & Behavior
IT Architecture• Systems & Services
• Data
• IT Processes
• Technologies & Vendors
• Standards
• Governance & Organization
• IT Skills & Sourcing
Bruce Rogow’s World View
[adapted from John Henderson @BCG]
Page 61
Currently All The Inter-
Related Boxes Are
Changing Dramatically!
Bruce Rogow,former head of
Worldwide Research @Gartner
“The Path to Next Generation IT will take a decade.”
T = 2012
Does Anybody Recognize This Guy?
Tomas SoderstromCTIO NASA-JPL
Chief Technology and Innovation Officer
Has a Normal-Enough Sounding Title:
The Work of IT
Nothing Normal about his Interpretation of:
CTO = Chief Toy Officer
Technology Petting Zoos
Prototype in a very practical manner
An end user trying to solve a problem – Tomas will seed fund it. All they have to do is write a one pager.
What the one pager says is essentially whatever/however they want to write it. I learned this from Amazon.
They write a seven pager. We don’t have patience for 7 pages.
if people get excited about it – people get excited when they see something. It has to be something they can touch and see.
If they get excited – then end users show it to other end users. Then the magic comes. Are they willing to fund it? If they are not we drop it.
A lot of Experimentation Is Possible
The Question to Focus On
How to prosper fromthe revolutionary changes
precipitated by
“increasingly capable machines”?
The Question to Focus On
How to survive and thrive
in a worldWhere machinesdo everything?
Point One
Moving intoa new economic era, one that will change the nature of work
and thebasis of competition
in EVERY industryBehind the “Green Monster”
Fenway Park
Point Two
Emergence of “Know-It-All”Competitors
[Full awareness of ALL that is occurring]
Point Three
Moving from “big minds chasing
small ideas”to big brains
focused on big ideas
From:
Digital that Entertains
To:
Digital that Matters
SUB-POINT
Worldwide 1.2 million lives lost
in car accidents annually.
94% due to human error.
In U.S. costs of these wrecks to
society ~ $1 trillion.
Malcolm Frank, What to Do
When Machines Do Everything, Loc 413
Observation
Bringing personalized
wealth management services
to HENRY’s
[high earners, not rich yet]
Malcolm Frank, What to Do
When Machines Do Everything, Loc 413
CASE STUDY
Traditional competitors
[Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley,
Credit Suisse] do not offer
personalized WMS to anyone with
less than $1 MM
[too expensive for 1-to-1 advisory]From beginning of 2015 to mid-
2016, Betterment’s assets
under management grew from
$1.1 billion to $5.0 billion
Hypothesis
The jobs/tasks
that are available
will be easy to find
Hypothesis
Skills & Competences
Will be
Inventoried & Broadcast
Online talent platforms
such as
LinkedIn, Monster.com, Uber and TaskRabbit
connect individuals to the work opportunities.
Available Jobs/Tasks Will Be Very Visible
What will the “datafication” of work do to executive search firms?
2 minute exercise
“For workers
to win the race,
they will have to acquire
Creative & social skills.”
Action ItemThe Oxford Folk Suggest
Hypothesis
Future Employability
will increasingly be based on reputation
Historically, workers have used credentials, licenses and/or a brand-name degree to show their potential worth.
Future of Work
Moving forward, a much richer set of signals, from social media profiles to online reviews to portfolios, will be available to workers and employers.
Future of Work
There is a Downside to Skill/Competency
Transparency
Workers who don’t have skills or reputations that are in demand,
will be exposed as such
X-ray photograph of silk taffeta evening dress by
Cristobal Balenciaga, 1955, Paris, France. X-
ray by Nick Veasey, 2016. © Nick Veasey
Victoria & Albert Museum
A Real Time Market for Skills/Competencies
Will salaries change daily
based on market conditions?
Labor Fact:Status Quo
The status quo is not workingUnemployment rate in France is 9.5% [25.9% for people under 25]
“Enough, enough, enough of this society, where there’s only unemployment and insecurity!”
Labor Fact:Gig Economy
There are currently > 53 million Americans working as “freelancers