the future of warfare: where do we stand? william reno northwestern university...
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The Future of Warfare: Where Do We Stand?
William RenoNorthwestern University
[email protected], www.willreno.org
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Studying change in warfare: Focus on components or logics?
1. Actors2. Goals3. Methods4. Resources
What changes the logics of violence and what are the consequences of these changes for the components of warfare?
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Past Futures of Warfare: Dar es Salaam, 1965: Why these particular actors, goals, methods, resources?US activist Cora Weiss with African liberation movement leaders. Back from left: Pascoal Mocumbi, Frente de Libertação de Moçambique [FRELIMO]; Eduardo Mondlane, President of FRELIMO; Weiss; Amilcar Cabral, President of the Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde [PAICG]. [African activist archive, MSU]
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Past Futures of WarfareNarratives of conflict [Solidarity Poster of Africa’s Future, c.1970, from Inkworks Press, Berkeley, CA]
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Present futures of warfare – What has changed?
• Networks: New or just more intense versions of old ones?
• Cultural narratives: These have always played roles in conflicts, but more now?
• Communication: A qualitative or a quantitative change?
• Internal character of state authority:
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Present Futures of Warfare: Incorporating more networks, such as cocaine trafficking[From David Blair, “Special Report: West Africa welcomes Latin America’s drug barons,” Telegraph, 3 Dec 2008.]
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Present futures: Shifts in global narratives, new ways of expressing identitiesFreetown, Sierra Leone street scene: West Side Boys & Tupac imagery
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Telecommunications: Mobile phone service reaches everywhere (Batkano, Sierra Leone in the 2000s.)
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State authority & symmetrical irregular warfare
Sierra Leone highway in 1990 Sierra Leone highway in 2013
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STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDANSTATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN
LEGENDThe locations/areas on this map are approximate. Names, sectors, locations,
alignements, affiliation are to be verified.
ADONGFORCE
John Mankoer100 (413)
17
DINNIFORCES
Hassan Doyak200 (500)
32
MOBILEFORCES
Vincent Kuany500 (866)
10
BALKOKPOP. DEF.
Hassan Doyak200 (500)
30
KALTOKFORCES
Gabriel Mding Fon50 (250)
31
CHAYOTFACTION
Saddam Chayot400 (950)
21/22
NASIRPOP. DEF.
John Jok100 (300)
20
CHOL GAGAGROUP
Hassan Doyak100 (500)
23
NASIRGROUP
Gordon Kong400 (3500)
7
AKOBOFORCES
Timothy Juoc300 (650)
34
SSLM/AGabriel Yoal Doc
500 (700)33
PIBORDEF. FORCEIsmael Konyi1000 (4000)
40/41
SIMONGATWICH
Simon Gatwich150 (2000)
35
BORGROUP
Kelia Deng Kelly100 (230)
46
BOYA/DIDINGAFORCES
Mahamed Losek 50 (180)
47
LAFONFORCES
Kamal R. Beligo 50 (100)
48
EDF-SSDF(EDF II)
Fabiano Odongi500 (2850)
43
TOPOSAFORCES
Chief Lokipapa 50 (600)
44
W. EQUATORIADEF. FORCE
xxx50 (150)
50
BAR EL JEBELFORCES
Paulino Lonyombe500 (950)
45
W. EQUATORIAPOP. DEF.
Steward Soroba50 (100)
49
MUNDARIFORCES
Clement Wani400 (4900)
39
JEBELFORCES II
John Both Tap500 (1350)
12
DOLEIBFORCES
Thomas Mabor100 (1127)
9
NATIONALPEACE FORCE
El Tom El Nur100 (3000)
36
FANGAKFORCES
Gabriel Tang500 (3350)
11
AWEILGROUP
Abdel Bagi200 (1500)
37/38
GADET’SFORCES
Peter Gadet100 (350)
5
SSUM/APaulino Matiep
500 (2500)1
THE UNITEDFACTION
James Othow500 (2116)
14
PARIANGFORCES
Samuel Mayiek300 (1500)
4
MABANFORCES
Musa Birima50 (250)
29
AKOKAFORCE
Thon Amum100 (410)
15
ALLAK DENGFACTIONAllak Deng500 (150)
27
ABOYGROUP
Paul Aboy100 (300)
8
MELUTPEACE FORCE
William deng2000 (300)
26
SOBATFORCE
Simon Yei300 (500)
19
MUSA DOULAFACTIONMusa Doula
500 (300)28
RENKPEACE FORCE
Chol Al Ahmar100 (400)
24
CHOL LEWISFACTIONChol Lewis200 (1227)
25
SSIM/APeter Dor400 (1900)
3
STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDANSTATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN
(K-7)
Aligned with SPLA.Aligned with SAF.
Reportedly aligned with SPLA. To be verified.Mainly aligned with SAF. Some sub-units aligned with SPLA.
Part of SSDF (prior to the Juba declaration). Associated, but not officially an integrated part of SSDF. Sometimes referredto as Central Equatoria Defence Forces. SSDF originators (Khartoum Peace Agreement).Originated from Anyanya 2
Mainly emerged after the Juba declaration. Splinter groups/re-hatted PDF. Originated from SPLA
SAF garrisons/locations. SAF/OAG/PDF/MI-elements often co-located.SPLA deployment areas/locations.
SABRI ACHOLFORCES
Sabin Achol100 (445)
16
SSDF – ABYEYThomas Thiel
50 (600)
6
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What is a “network” in the context of a state that has very weak bureaucracies? [And what is on Riek Machar’s reading table?]
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The uses of an AK-47 in the mind of the artistThe puzzle of why narratives in really awful places remain so parochial: [The wall of a medical clinic, Lofa County, Liberia during the LURD offensive, 2003]
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New social structures of Violence: Slightly demobilized RUF, Sierra LeoneObserve the attire: Distinguishing units and commander position and associations by footwear, 1999
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As go states, so goes the future of Warfare.Think of wars & states: Where one finds ‘Conventional’ states, one tends to find armed groups with bureaucratic hierarchies. Where modernist visions of states fail, so goes the vision of unified armed groups.
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The End: ECOMOG position, MonroviaSometime back in the ‘90s