The Future of US Foreign Policy

And how Obama has dealt with it

Short Term

Iraq: Out

Afghanistan:

In and eventually out

Middle East Turmoil

Balancing US interests • counterterrorism • human rights and democracy • OIL • alliance with Israel

Policies• Encouraging Egyptian military to oust

Mubarak

• Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue

• Bombing Libya

• Diplomacy with Syria: many implications

• Saudi Arabia: silence

Longer Term

US Goals

• Preservation of US Leadership

• Democratization

• Global Free market capitalism

• Stable change where change is necessary

Trends and Transformations?

1. Unipolarity: Can it Last

2. New Cold War

3. Multipolarity

4. Leadership, not Dominance

5. Middle Power Challenges

6. Globalization: Interdependence

7. Decline of Nation-State Power

8. Uncertainties

1. Unipolarity

• Can it Last?

• It never has before

US Wealth

See World Bank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf

Global Military Expenditures• CountryCountry Military spending Military spending Budget Period Budget Period • World World $1100 billion $1100 billion 2004 est. 2004 est. • United States United States $623 billion $623 billion FY08 FY08 • Rest-of-World Rest-of-World $500 billion $500 billion 2004 est. 2004 est. • China China $65.0 billion $65.0 billion 2004 2004 • RussiaRussia $50.0 billion $50.0 billion • FranceFrance $45.0 billion $45.0 billion 20052005• United KingdomUnited Kingdom$42.8 billion $42.8 billion 2005 est.2005 est.• JapanJapan $41.75 billion $41.75 billion 20072007• GermanyGermany $35.1 billion $35.1 billion 20032003• ItalyItaly $28.2 billion $28.2 billion 2003 2003• South Korea South Korea $21.1 billion $21.1 billion 2003 est.2003 est.• IndiaIndia $19.0 billion $19.0 billion 2005 est.2005 est.• Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia $18.0 billion $18.0 billion 2005 est.2005 est.• AustraliaAustralia $16.9 billion $16.9 billion 2006 2006 • North Korea North Korea $5.0 billion $5.0 billion FY02FY02• IranIran $4.3 billion $4.3 billion 2003 est. 2003 est. • From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htmFrom: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm

2. New Cold War

• One nation catches up to the US

• Rising Challenger

• Declining hegemon

US vs. China

• President Obama and President Hu

Great Power Challenges• Rival Power

• Soft Authoritarian Ideology

3. Multipolarity

• Many nations catch up to the US

• The US falls back to the pack

A Multipolar System

US

Russia Japan

EU

China India

Or Another Bipolar System

US India Russia China

Sending a Message?Obama Administration’s first state dinner

• Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh

Trips to Asia

2009 2010

4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20

5. Middle Power Challenges• Iranian power

6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

Welcome to China

Welcome to the US

Welcome to New York

7. Decline of Nation-State Power

• The Nation-State System evolves– Governments weaken

• Financial Flows that governments can’t control

• Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against

Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows

(from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002, http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp

US GDP Growth

21st Century Challenges

Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al-Shabab in Somalia

AQAM Attacks 1995-2011

Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels

source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html

8. Uncertainties

• Climate Change

• Energy

• Food

• Population

• Over-urbanization

• Migration

• And…