the future of the internet
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of the Internet
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Payam BarnaghiInstitute for Communication Systems (ICS)Electronic Engineering Department University of SurreyGuildford, United Kingdom
The Grand Challenge (Tracking 21st Century challenges together)University of Exeter, June 2015
2IBM Mainframe 360, source Wikipedia
Apollo 11 Command Module (1965) had 64 kilobytes of memory operated at 0.043MHz.
An iPhone 5s has a CPU running at speeds of up to 1.3GHzand has 512MB to 1GB of memory
Cray-1 (1975) produced 80 million Floating point operations per second (FLOPS)10 years later, Cray-2 produced 1.9G FLOPS
An iPhone 5s produces 76.8 GFLOPS – nearly a thousand times more
Cray-2 used 200-kilowatt power
Source: Nick T., PhoneArena.com, 2014
Computing Power
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−Smaller size−More Powerful−More memory and more storage
−"Moore's law" over the history of computing, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.
Smaller in size but larger in scale
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The Internet: A brief history
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− 1961: Leonard Kleinrock at MIT published the first paper on packet switching theory in July 1961.
− 1962: J.C.R. Licklider of MIT discussed his "Galactic Network" concept - a globally interconnected set of computers through which everyone could quickly access data and programs from any site.
− 1968: an RFQ was released by DARPA for the development of one of the key components, the packet switches called Interface Message Processors (IMP's).
− The RFQ was won in December 1968 by a group headed by Frank Heart at Bolt Beranek and Newman (BBN).
Source: Internet Society
The Internet: A brief history
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− 1970: the Network Working Group (NWG) working under S. Crocker finished the initial ARPANET Host-to-Host protocol, called the Network Control Protocol (NCP).
− 1972: Bob Kahn organized a large, very successful demonstration of the ARPANET at the International Computer Communication Conference (ICCC). − This was the first public demonstration of this new
network technology to the public.
− 1972: the first "hot" application, electronic mail, was introduced.
Source: Internet Society
The old Internet timeline
8Source: Internet Society
TCP/IP in the early days of the Internet
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− The original Cerf/Kahn paper on the Internet described one protocol, called TCP, which provided all the transport and forwarding services in the Internet.
− A 32 bit IP address was used of which the first 8 bits signified the network and the remaining 24 bits designated the host on that network.
− The assumption was that 256 networks would be sufficient for the foreseeable future…
− Obviously this was before LANs (Ethernet was under development at Xerox PARC at that time)
Expansion beyond estimation
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In November 1979, a proposal was submitted to NSF to fund a consortium of eleven universities at an estimated cost of $3 million over five years. This is viewed as too costly by the NSF.
Source: Computer History museum
4 node Arpanet
Predicting the future (in 1999)!
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− 1999: “The number of hosts (locatable through DNS) will exceed 100 M, very soon!”
− A few years later in 2013, 80 “things” per second were connecting to the internet. In 2014 that number was around 100 per second, and by 2020, more than 250 things will connect each second. (source Cisco)
− It is estimated that by 2020 there will be more than 50 billion internet connected devices. (source Cisco)
Submarine cables
12Image source: mail online
Fiber optic cables around the world
A single fibre can transmit as much as 100 billion bits per second (100 Gbps, about ten thousand times faster than a typical home broadband connection)
- A cable can contain hundreds of fibres, a single cable can have enough capacity for the communications of millions of users.
Source: http://www.vox.com/a/internet-mapsSource: http://www.vox.com/a/internet-maps
Countries at risk of getting disconnected from the internet
Source: http://www.vox.com/a/internet-maps
Connectivity and information exchange was (and is ) one of the main motivations behind the Internet; but Content and Services are now the key elements;
and all started growing rapidly by the introduction of the World Wide Web.
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The World Wide Web
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Tim Berners-Lee
Early days of the Web
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Search on the Internet/Web in the early days
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And there came Google!
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Google says that the web has now 30 trillion unique individual pages;
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Source: Intel, 2012
Source: http://www.techspartan.co.uk
Source: http://www.techspartan.co.uk
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AnyPlace AnyTime
AnyThing
Data Volume
Security, Reliability, Trust and Privacy
Societal Impacts, Economic Values and Viability
Services and Applications
Networking andCommunication
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Sensor devices are becoming widely available
- Programmable devices- Off-the-shelf gadgets/tools
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More “Things” are being connected
Home/daily-life devicesBusiness and Public infrastructureHealth-care…
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People Connecting to Things
Motion sensorMotion sensor
Motion sensor
ECG sensor
Internet
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Things Connecting to Things
- Complex and heterogeneous resources and networks
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Connected world
31Image courtesy: Wilgengebroed
DataData
SemanticsSemantics
Social
networksSocial
networksM2M
Communic
ations
M2M
Communic
ations
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Internet of Things (IoT)
− Extending the current Internet and providing connection, communication, and inter-networking between devices and physical objects, or "Things," is a growing trend that is often referred to as the Internet of Things.
− “The technologies and solutions that enable integration of real world data and services into the current information networking technologies are often described under the umbrella term of the Internet of Things (IoT)”
Mobile Technologies
33Image courtesy: Economist
1G
AMPS, NMT, TACS
2G
GSM. GPRS, TDMA IS-136,
CDMA IS-95, PDC
3G
UMTS, CDMA2000,
4G5G
LTE, LTE-A
People
Things
Voice
Text
Data
5G technologiesand standards
Connection + Control M2M/IoT
Change in the communication technologies
Mobile Services and Applications
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Image courtesy: Economist
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Things, Devices, Data, and lots of it
image courtesy: Smarter Data - I.03_C by Gwen Vanhee
“delivering only data is not often sufficient, the systems should be able to provide machine-interpretable and/or human-understandable insights (actionable-information)”
Sinknode Gateway
Core networke.g. Internet
Core networke.g. Internet
What is the temperature at home?What is the temperature at home?Freezing!Freezing!
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Internet of Things: The story so far
RFID based
solutions Wireless Sensor and
Actuator networks, solutions for
communication technologies, energy
efficiency, routing, …
Smart Devices/Web-enabled
Apps/Services, initial products,
vertical applications, early concepts and demos, …
Motion sensor
Motion sensor
ECG sensor
Physical-Cyber-Social Systems, Linked-data,
semantics, M2M, More products, more
heterogeneity, solutions for control and
monitoring, …
Future: Cloud, Big (IoT) Data Analytics, Interoperability,
Enhanced Cellular/Wireless Com. for IoT, Real-world operational
use-cases and Industry and B2B services/applications,
more Standards…
The scale
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Things Data
Devices
2.5 quintillion bytes per day
Billions and Billions of them…
Estimated 50 Billion by 2020
The IoT is a dynamic, online and rapidly changing world
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isPartOf
Publishing content/data on the Web
Data in the IoT
Image sources: ABC Australia and 2dolphins.com
What type of problems we expect to solve?
43Source LAT Times, http://documents.latimes.com/la-2013/
Future cities: A view from 1998
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Source: http://robertluisrabello.com/denial/traffic-in-la/#gallery[default]/0/
Source: wikipedia
Back to the Future: 2013
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Applications and potentials
− Analysis of thousands of traffic, pollution, weather, congestion, public transport, waste and event sensory data to provide better transport and city management.
− Converting smart meter readings to information that can help prediction and balance of power consumption in a city.
− Monitoring elderly homes, personal and public healthcare applications.
− Event and incident analysis and prediction using (near) real-time data collected by citizen and device sensors.
− Turning social media data (e.g. Tweets) related to city issues into event and sentiment analysis.
− Any many more…
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The physical world data
− Multi-modal and heterogeneous− Noisy and incomplete− Time and location dependent − Dynamic and varies in quality − Crowed sourced data can be unreliable − Requires (near-) real-time analysis− Privacy and security are important issues− Data can be biased- we need to know our data!
− Data alone may not give a clear picture -we need contextual information, background knowledge, multi-source information and obviously better data analytics solutions…
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Some examples
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Live data visualisation
49P. Source: Lasse Steenbock Vestergaard, CityPulse Project
Live event visualisation
50P. Source: Lasse Steenbock Vestergaard, CityPulse Project
Learning form data
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F. Ganz, P. Barnaghi, F. Carrez, "Information Abstraction for Heterogeneous Real World Internet Data", IEEE Sensors Journal, 2013.
Ontology learning from real world data
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Extraction of events and semantics from social media
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City Infrastructure
Tweets from a city
P. Anantharam, P. Barnaghi, K. Thirunarayan, A. Sheth, "Extracting city events from social streams,“, 2014.
https://osf.io/b4q2t/
The Future of the Internet
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In next 5 years
The rise of sharing economy
55Source: the Economist
More broadband in remote areas
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More people getting connected
57Source: the Economist
More connected wearable devcies
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The rise of village notebook/internet kiosks
59Source: wikipedia, green diary
More privacy/control issues
60Source: wikipedia, the economist
Applications and Services
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Data-centric networking
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Smart Grid
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Source: Economist, http://www.economist.com/node/13725843
The Future of the Internet
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In next 25 years
Mind will be the machine
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Pushing the boundaries between human and the machine!
The borders blend
66Source: IEEE Internet Computing
Information will find you, instead of you finding the information
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Boundary between human, technology and devices
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Accumulated and connected knowledge?
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Image courtesy: IEEE Spectrum
Global Challenges
− Net neutrality− Openness and freedom of access− Privacy and control on personal data− Cyber security and trust− Dependability and resilience − Who owns what, and who controls what− Digital divide − Social impacts
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Technical challenges
− (Automated) data to actionable-information process
− Finding and linking complimentary and related information
− Energy resources and bandwidth − Quality of Service − (near-) real-time access to information for
everything/everywhere − Autonomous machine-to-machine interactions − Fast speed networking − Security, privacy, trust for applications and
servcies 71
Let’s hope
−The Internet of the Future will be −Open and accessible for everyone,
everywhere, available at anytime,−People will have control on their data−Data will be used for helping people−Smart applications will contribute to a
better life and to a better use of of our resources in the world!
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