the future of services

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013

The Future for Services

Ian Miles

Research Laboratory for Economics of InnovationHigher School of Economics - National Research University Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

(and MIoIR, MBS, University of Manchester, UK)

Higher School of Economics Moscow 2013www.hse.ru


The Future for Services

• The Future for Service(s) versus the Futures is Service(s)• Service versus Services• Trends “we all know”• Transformations of Service• Challenges

• Foresight work ignores service developments at its risk.• Importance of:

• Grasping trends and transformations• Seeing services as users of Foresight• Seeing Foresight as service


Common Knowledge: Expansion of Service Industries

World Bank, 2000,Beyond Economic Growth at:www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/global/

chapter9.html


1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 20

30

40

50

60

70World

Developed Economies and European Union

Central and South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

South-East Asia and the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America and the Car-ibbean

Middle East

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: ILO, Global

Employment Trends,

January 2009

http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_101461.pdf

Service Sector Employment growing in all regions Services-Dominated Economies







Common Knowledge: Services are a Global Force

• Service Transnationals

• Service Offshoring


Common Knowledge: Services are being Transformed through IT use

• Service Industries as Major Consumers of new IT

• New IT as Technological and Industrial Revolution in Service Industries

• Service Innovation in Process and Products


Information Technology evolution

Inspired by Marc Weiser et al: - cf: I Miles (2005) “Be Here Now”, INFO Vol. 7 No. 2, pp49-71

Mainframe mini

VANs

Experts

Centralised

Numbers

Micro PC

LANs

Profess-ionals

“End-User”

Text/ graphics

Networks & laptops

Web

Public

Content

Commun-ication

Tablet, smartphone

WiFi, 3G

Wide public

Web2.0,

P2P

Multimedia

Sensors, Actuators

WiMax, 4G,cloud

Ubiquit-ous

Internet of things,

locations

Control

Biodevice

+ + +

Ambient

Semantic web

Enhance-ment


Mainframe mini

VANs

Experts

Centralised

Numbers

Micro PC

LANs

Profess-ionals

“End-User”

Text/ graphics

Networks & laptops

Web

Public

Content

Commun-ication

Tablet, smartphone

WiFi, 3G,

Wide public

Web2.0,

P2P

Multimedia

Sensors, Actuators

WiMax, 4G,cloud

Ubiquit-ous

Internet of things,

locations

Control

Biodevice?

+ + +

Ambient

Semantic web

Enhance-ment

Information Society

One for Many People

One for a Few People

One for Each Person/Place

A Few for Each Person/Place

Many for Each Person/Place

Isolation Connectivity Networking Ubiquity

Island Archipelago Continent Ecosystem

Sottware unbundling: new KIBS industry

Network and new Online Services

Apps Everyday services: health and lifestyleLocational

Services


Mainframe mini

VANs

Experts

Centralised

Numbers

Micro PC

LANs

Profess-ionals

“End-User”

Text/ graphics

Networks & laptops

Web

Public

Content

Commun-ication

Tablet, smartphone

WiFi, 3G,

Wide public

Web2.0,

P2P

Multimedia

Sensors, Actuators

WiMax, 4G,cloud

Ubiquit-ous

Internet of things,

locations

Control

Biodevice?

+ + +

Ambient

Semantic web

Enhance-ment

Information Technology Use is one shaper of Service Economy

One for Many People

One for a Few People

One for Each Person/Place

A Few for Each Person/Place

Many for Each Person/Place

Service Economy 1.0

Service Economy 2.0

Service Economy

3.0

Evolving Views of Service Economy (and Service Innovation)


Service Economy

1.0

Service Economy 1.0“Post-Industrial Society” - 1960s-’80s

• Economy of services sector(s)• Growth driven by consumer demand, welfare state

provision, low productivity growth

• Innovation relatively low, supplier-driven; MoT seen as adoption of technology from elsewhere

• Industries are pre- or post-industrial - too complicated or particularised for mass production

• Industrialisation of services via scale and modularisation

• Examples: Bell, Fuchs,Levitt, Touraine


Service Economy

2.0

Service Economy 2.0Knowledge-Based Economy: 1980s-2000s

• New Information Technology widely adopted in service organisations- especially back-office in large organisations.

• New IT-related services assisting this - supporting business processes and innovation across the economy.

• New services and service delivery, new e-services.• Information Society, Knowledge Economy• Examples: Barras, Gershuny, Quinn.


Service Economy

3.0

Service Economy 3.0 Economy of Service(s) 2010s-

• Service orientation (Service-Dominant Logic) to forefront: Synthesis viewpoint

• Continuing Emergence of Processes and Practices–will be invigorated by use of new technologies like sensors, data analytics, etc.

• Manufacturing – servicisiation and beyond.• Product-service solutions and Grand Challenges• Examples: Gallouj, Spohrer, Vargo/Lusch.


Received wisdom is evolving...

• But may still fail to adequately deal with several important factors and forces:– Diversity of services– Service is not necessarily upgraded– New technologies may play major roles– Manufacturing may be further transformed– New tools for design of service systems.


Three Transformational Types

Physical Transformations

e.g Cleaning, Transport

Often much manual, sometimes low-skill work

Environmental sustainability, “self-service”

Power and engine systems; technologies under repair

etc.

Business model change

Human Transformations

e.g. Health, Personal Services

High presence, often high involvement of Consumer/User

Human diversity, Interpersonal relations

Many specialised, from very low to very high-tech

Changing role of public sector

Informational Transformations

e.g Finance, Communications

Range of mass and customised services

Keeping apace of platforms and users,IP

IT and supporting systems (e.g. Batteries)

New functionality (e.g. Location) and knowledge

(e.g. Neuro...)

Manual Activity Knowledge-intensive activity

Examples

Features

Challenges

Technologies

Trends

Many activities, and most service industries, involve some mixture of all three


Services Innovation =/= Service Improvement

• Industrialisation and standardisation• Mass customisation and (a) choice dilemmas

(b) personal distance – overfamiliarity

• Scope for using social media, etc.


Manufacturing-Services

• Beyond servicsiation• Communications systems linking

manufacturing production processes with customers...

• ...and consumption processes with producers.

• Plus new modes of factoryless manufacturing, including 3-D printing, nanomanufacturing


Product-Service Systems

• Complex systems to analyse and model:• Need for new tools and new design

approaches.• Service design as critical for Future for

Services – and Future in general...• Innovation and innovation management for

tools.


New Service Technologies

• Neurotechnology/cognitive science• Information and biotechnologies for health,

sports, etc.


Conclusions

• Service thinking has evolved alongside growth of “service economy” (-> economy of services)

• Services need Foresight• Foresight is a service process and should be

approached as such• Foresight exercises and activities need to take

into account growth and changing nature of services.


End of Presentation