The future of Scottish Government Cross-Sectional

Population Surveys

Sara GraingerSurvey Methodology and Co-ordination,

Office of the Chief Statistician

LONG TERM STRATEGY FOR POPULATION

SURVEYS IN SCOTLAND 2009 -2019

1. To ensure that the Scottish Government’s population surveys meet key information needs while maximising the analytical potential of the data they generate, the precision of estimates and value for money.

2. To give full consideration to issues of survey participation, respondent burden, data quality and data security and to make recommendations that align survey practice across Government and promote good practice to other public bodies.

SHS

SHeS

SCJS

Local survey

Ad-hoc survey

n=11,000

n= 6,000

n=13,000

n= 1,000

n= 2,000

core questions

topic specific questions

Combined sample of core questions from all surveys

n=33,000+

Core Questions and Pooled Samples

Core Questions and Pooled Samples

• Household grid (household relationship matrix / household type)

• Gender• Age / Date of birth• Marital status• Ethnicity• Disability or long term

health• Self-assessed health• Smoking• Caring responsibilities• Mental wellbeing

• Sexual identity• Religion / Belief• Educational attainment• Household income• Economic activity• Tenure• Car ownership / access• Country of birth• Crime victimisation and

reporting• Perception of local crime

rate

Scottish Crime and

JusticeSurvey

SHS 2010 Review

• Full “roots and branches” review

• User questionnaire, focus groups & discussion at Survey Conference earlier this year

• Rejuvenated SHS Steering Group with wide representation

• Widely used for variety of purposes

• Competing demands for breadth and depth

• Dissatisfaction at 2 year sample design

• Most variables change little year on year

Options for the future

• Alternative sources • Different modes• Reduce content

– Merge surveys

• Reduce sample sizes– Precision– Sub-population breakdowns – Frequency

Household Health Crime & Justice

House Condition

Health

Crime & Justice

House Condition

Merging Surveys

SHCS questions

follow-up dwelling survey

Reducing Sample Sizes

Household 14,000 11,000?

Health 6,000

Crime & Justice 16,000 13,000every other year

House Condition 3,000 3,000

Implications of reduced sample sizes

1. Reduced precision

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

n=500 n=250

Implications of reduced sample sizes

2. Reduced capacity to drill into data sub-national geographies

sections of the population

Whole sample 10,000 5,000

Sample of adults age 60+ 2,400 1,200

Sample in social rented sector 2,200 1,100

Sample of adults age 60+ in the social rented sector

530 265

Implications of reduced sample sizes

3. Reduced frequency of reportingpotentially maintaining precision and capacity to drill into data

by combining 2, 3, 4 years of data together

What are your priorities and why?

1. Precision? Why?

2. Capacity to drill into data? Why?

3. Frequency of reporting? Why?

Would you prefer all 3 to be reduced a bit, or one to be reduced a lot? Why?

What would the implications be for your ability to deliver outcomes?

Further InformationThe Long Term Survey Strategy, papers and minutes from the Population

Surveys Co-ordinating Committeehttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/About/Surveys

Core and harmonised survey questionshttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/About/SurveyHarm

Information about the Scottish and UK surveys, and full topic guide to SG surveys

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/About/SurveyHarm/surveytopiccoverage

Survey Methodology and Co-ordination Branch Sara.Grainger@Scotland.gsi.gov.uk 0131 244 0329

Alexander.Stannard@Scotland.gsi.gov.uk 0131 244 3339

To be kept informed select “Population and Household Surveys” in your areas of interest on the ScotStat register