7/2/2009 1

Future of HCI: Intelligent User Interfaces as Agents of Change

Dr Christopher KhalilNews Digital Media

Future is hard to predict

"I think there is a world market for maybe five com puters."

-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be s eriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."

-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out."

-- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."

-- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

Evolution of Man

Evolution slow

We have a Stone Age brain

The Brains we are born with today are practically identical to those of Cro-Magnon man of 40,000 years ago

“Since the time of Cro-Magnon man there has been no marked increase in man’s cranial capacity and probably little or no increase in his inherent intellectual ability… the intellectual evolution of the race, no less than physical, has slowed down until it has practically stopped”

The Direction of Human Evolution By Edwin Grant Conklin

If Cro-Magnon man was around today

He’d be just like us

Facing lots of information

http://www.softwaremag.com/images/2008-07-08/2008-07-08-cont-mgmt-fig1.jpg

Hitting us fast

http://www.theequitykicker.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/twitter-curve.jpg

But with a Stone Age brain

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3113/2595830716_1f928cc2a3.jpg

Cro-Magnon man met as many people in year as we do in one day, PLUS all the information we have to deal with

It’s like

Running the Internet

It’s possible but not necessarily desirable

On a Commodore 64

Information is: incessant, relentless

& everywhere

How can we cope?

We augment

I can’t see well

The physical

I can’t get to places quickly

Computer Augments the Memory

Who remembers phone numbers nowadays?

Computer Augments the Memory

Anyone else think their spelling has deteriorated?

“We shape our tools, whereafter our tools shape us. ” – Marshal Macluhan

Yet, augmentation is failing

Direct Manipulation is over 30 years old

Xerox Alto: 1973

Apple Lisa: 1984

Hasn’t changed much

Windows 7: 2009

Makes us do unnecessary interactions

GOAL: I want to store information for later retrieval:

‘Save’1. Open Save ‘Dialog’:2. Find appropriate file location (multiple appropriate places)3. Place file

‘Retrieve’1. ‘Open’ dialog2. Attempt recall at where you placed it3. Search multiple places/versions4. ‘Open File’

Not everything has a GUI

Internet of things: Ambient Intelligence

http://www.w3.org/2007/Talks/03-MW20/BigPicture.jpg

Augmented Reality/ UBICOMP

http://www.howstuffworks.com/augmented-reality.htmhttp://www.crunchbase.com/assets/images/original/00 02/7070/27070v2.jpg

Visual Bandwidth Limited Interfaces

• Mobile• How to perform

complex interactions?• On the move?

Another Metaphor

From inanimate objects:

To: Assistants

Indirect Management

An Intelligent Agent is an autonomous entity which observes and acts upon an environment and directs its activity towards achieving goals

Knows about you | Gets better with experience | Understands context | Proactive

Been tried before

Why now?

semantic web

recommendation engines

natural language processing

speech recognition planning and reasoning capabilities

social connectivity

computing power

multi-channel integration

location aware networked

Early Example: CALO

What is it like there?

Where should I go on holiday?

Where should I stay?

What do I need to know about it?

How do I get the best fare?

People who have been there

TravelInterests

Placesto go

Photos, blogs, news stories

TravelServices

http://caloproject.sri.com/

DARPA Project - CALO: Cognitive Assistant that Learn s and OrganizesGigantic Join: Composing and Integrating Data acros s Applications

What

Who

Where

What

How

Agents leverage their Networks

Me

Overcomes some problems

Ambient Intelligence:• ‘Keep it warm in here, stock up on food’Mobile on-the-go:• ‘Find me a cheap flight that leaves in 2

hours’Augmented:• ‘I know you hate driving in the CBD so I’m

going to try and find a better route, is that ok?’

10,20,50,100,500 years…

Technology will come

What’s the problem?

Trust

Disruptive technologies bring fear – loss of control

Gen Z

Never known a life without the internetNever known a life without mobiles

What for usContracts: Define boundariesWireframes: Specify literal behaviour

•Closer to Service Design than IxD

•Emergent System Intelligence

•Unpredictable

HCI or HCSymbiosis

Symbiosis of human/machine is not coming, its already here

Humans splintering their personality – Avatars live on in virtual world once they have ‘disconnected’

Human Evolution Pt 2

Symbiogenesis

The biologist Lynn Margulis contends that symbiosisis a major driving force behind evolution.

She considers Darwin's notion of evolution, driven by competition, as incomplete and claims that evolution is strongly based on co-operation, interaction, and mutual dependence among organisms .

According to Margulis and Dorion Sagan:"Life did not take over the globe by combat, but by

networking.”

Agents of Change

UI Agents could be agents of change:

For Worse:

For better:

Thanks

Email: christopherkhalil@yahoo.co.ukTwitter: chris_khalilWeb: www.chriskhalil.com