the future of fgd gypsum in europe 25th ashtrans europe ...ashtrans.eu/onewebmedia/7 ashtrans europe...

ASHTRANS EUROPE 2015 - DE/KT

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Dr.-Ing. Jörg Demmich, Knauf Group

Chairman of the FGD Gypsum WG of Eurogypsum

The Future of FGD Gypsum in Europe 25th

ASHTRANS EUROPE 2015

7 – 8 September

Copenhagen


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1. Introduction

Eurogypsum presentation

Energy policy in Europe: Similarities and differences

2. Current status of FGD gypsum production in the EU

3. The German Energy Policy Concept

Steps to increase renewables in electricity generation

Decision to run out of nuclear energy generation

Estimated impact on FGD gypsum production

4. The European Energy Policy

European data basis

Estimation on prospective FGD gypsum production possible

5. Summary

Content


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Founded in 1961 in Geneva

Registered in Belgium since 2006

Full Members:

- National Gypsum Associations

11 covering Western Europe, Poland and Turkey

Associate Members:

- Companies in countries without associations

Five companies

The Gypsum Industry in Europe Eurogypsum AISBL


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With a turnover of over 7.7 billion EURO, the European gypsum industry

operates

- 154 quarries

- 164 factories (plaster powder plants, plaster block plants and

plasterboard plants) and

- generates employment directly to 28,000, indirectly to 300,000

people and indirectly for 1,000,000 plasterboard installers.

- It is one of the few fully integrated industries within the construction

products field.

The European Gypsum Industry covers the whole life-cycle of the

product (from extraction to recycling).

The Gypsum Industry in Europe Eurogypsum AISBL


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Common objective of the European energy policy is to reduce GHG1) emissions

EU-wide. The EU Climate & Energy Package3) defines 3 explicit targets “20 – 20

– 20” based on 1990 level and changed in 20144):

- 20% (40%) reduction of GHG emissions by 2020 (2030)

Current status (2012): 19,2%

- 20% (35%) share of RES2) in electricity generation by 2020 (2030)

- 20% (min. 27%) increasing in energy savings by 2020 (2030)

For 2050 the European Commission proposes a “competitive low-carbon

economy” with GHG emission reduction of 80-95%.

The most part of CO2-equivalents emission results from energy generation

(79% in 2012).

1) GHG: Green House Gas 2) RES: Renewable energy sources 3) European Commission: “An Energy Policy for Europe”, COM (2007) 1 4) European Commission: “A Policy Framework for Climate and Energy

in the period from 2020 to 203”, COM (2014) 15

Energy Policy in Europe –

Similarities and differences


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Energy Policy in Europe –

Similarities and differences

But the current situation differs from member state to member state

significantly:

- RES share (2012) of electricity generation in EU-MS1) from 6,1%

(Hungary) to Austria (65,5%), EU average 23,5%.

- Coal/lignite share (2012) of electricity generation in EU-MS from

1% (Sweden) to 92,5% (Poland), EU average 27%.

The current situation and the way how to achieve the EU goals is very

different from country to country. As only in Germany a clear roadmap

for energy policy until 2050 exists it has to be distinguished between

Germany and the EU in the following.

But at first let´s have a look on the current FGD gypsum production in

the EU and Germany as the main producer.

1) MS: Member State without small countries


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7,57,1 6,9 6,6

6,36,8 7,03

11,5 11,210,8

11,310,6

10,211,3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

FGD gypsum quantities 2005-2012 (EU151) and Germany2))

Germany

Europe

mill. tons/

year

1) ECOBA (15 Member states) EU: 28 Member states

2) VGB Powertech

Current status of FDG gypsum production in the EU

(EU 28: 18 mill. t)1)


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1) Energy concept of the German Government (28.09.2010): RES shares and gross power generation according to Energy Concept Germany.

Share of coal and others calculated/estimated. 2) RES: Renewable Energy Sources

Why separate assessment of Germany? Biggest FGD gypsum producer in

the EU

Energy Concept Germany (28.09.2010)

(Gross power generation and RES2) shares before exit-decision of nuclear

power generation)

The German Energy Policy Concept


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Gross power generation in Germany- after exit-decision of nuclear power

generation (2011)

(Basis: Energy Concept of German Government, 28.09.2010, changed by lead

scenario 2012)

Source: Long term scenarios and strategies for development of renewable energies in Germany taking into consideration the development in Europe and worldwide (scenario A).

BMU-FKZ 03MAP146, 29.03.2012 (BMU Lead Scenario 2012)

1) Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 2012


/lignite


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Estimated impact on FGD gypsum production

Goals for GHG1)- reduction and RES2) share of gross electricity generation

Current status

Germany 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2014

GHG reduction 3) 40% 55% 70% 80-95%

RES share 3) 35% 50% 65% 80% 26,20%

RES share 4) 39-45% 48-64% 54-77% 65-85%

RES share 5) 17%6) 28% 42% 53% 64% 77% 85%

coal / lignite share 4) 26-42% 15-41% 7-28% 2-15% 43,40%

coal / lignite share 5) 42%6) 38% 26% 25% 15% 7% 2%

1) GHG = Greenhouse Gas

2) RES = Renewable Energy Sources

3) Energy Concept German Government (2010) 4) Different studies (2012-2014) after phasing out of

nuclear energy; best case: Federal Ministry of

Economical Affairs BMWi “Energy Reference

Prognosis June 2014”

5) BMU Lead Study 2012


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Prospective development of FGD gypsum production in Germany

Fuel-shares of electricity production


17

28

42

53

64

77

85

17

39

47 48

54

65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Renewable energies (%)

BMU Lead Study 2012(worst case)

BMWI Energy Referenceprognosis/Trend scenario

2014 (best case)

42 38

26 25

15

7

2

42 42 4241

28

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

Coal/lignite %


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Prospective development of FGD gypsum production in Germany

7

3,9

2,2

1,1

0,3

7 7,0

6,7

4,3

2,2

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

mill. tons/year

BMU Lead study 2012 (worst case)

BMWI Energy Reference prognosis 2014(best case)



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In the European Union there are some official publications and a lot of unofficial

studies on the European energy policy, e.g.

- An Energy Policy for Europe, COM (2007) 1, European Commission.

- Energy Road Map 2050, COM (2011) 885 — 6 different scenarios, European

Commission.

- EU Energy Trends to 2050 (2013), European Commission, EU Reference

Scenario 2013.

- Thermal Power in 2030 (2015), EPPSA European Power Plant Suppliers

Association, including 7 different studies.

- Prognos-Report: „Supply of Gypsum to industry in the context of energy

turnaround in Europe, Ashtrans Europe 2014, Berlin.

Against this background it is not easy which scenario should be taken as a basis for

estimation of the prospective FGD gypsum production.

The European Energy Policy


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Prospective development of FGD gypsum production in the EU


Goals for GHG1)- reduction and RES2) share of gross electricity generation

Current status

EU 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012

GHG reduction 3) 20% 40% 80-95%

RES share 3) 20% 35% 40,3-83,1% 22,4% 5)

RES share 4) 36% 45% 53%

coal and lignite share 3) 2,1-15,2 %

coal and lignite share 4) 20% 12% 7% 27,4% 5)

1) GHG = Greenhouse Gas

2) RES = Renewable Energy Sources

3) EU Commission "Energy Road Map 2050", COM (2011) 885

4) EU Commission "EU Energy Trends to 2050 - EU Reference Scenario 2013" (2013)

5) Eurostat


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Prospective development of FGD gypsum production in the EU


(1) Prognos-Report: „Supply of Gypsum to industry in the context of energy turnaround in Europe, Ashtrans Europe 2014,

Berlin

(2) European Comission: “EU Trends to 2050 – EU-Reference Scenario“ (2013)

19,6 19,7

17,3

15,2

11,7

18(Estimation ECOBA)

13,1

7,8

4,6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

FGD Gypsum (1)

FGD Gypsum calculatedfrom (2)

mill. tons/ year


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EU

The European Union follows a strict “decarbonisation objective” in electricity generation in the

time period 2010-2050:

Nuclear share will be stable at 20% (2012: 27%).

Coal/lignite share will decrease from 27% down to 7%.

RES share will increase from 22% up to 53%.

Starting from these background data the FGD gypsum production will decrease from

estimated 18 mill. tons/year down to almost 5 mill. tons/year.

But the databasis is not reliable enough.

Can the EU achieve these ambitious aims in terms of significantly increasing RES share

regarding the substantially different situation in the EU-MS?

Germany

The data basis in Germany is based on a couple of studies with a large variety.

Nuclear share will be zero in 2022.

Coal/lignite share will decrease from 43% down to 2-15%.

RES share will increase from 26% up to 65-85%.

Starting from these background data the FGD gypsum production will decrease from 7 mill.

tons/year down to 0,3-2,2 mill. tons/year.

Summary I


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Beside a reduction in quantity another issue is important for the use of

FGD gypsum: the quality.

Due to LCP-BREF process the emissions of mercury and other heavy metals (?)

have to be reduced tremendously.

The enrichment of these pollutants in the FGD gypsum has to be

avoided by all means.

Otherwise the European gypsum industry cannot guarantee the further

use of this secondary raw material.

What are the counteractive measures for the European gypsum industry

for raw materials supply protection?

Increasing activities for recycling gypsum waste, first of all plasterboard waste

(estimated medium-term 2 mill. tons/year).

As the recycled gypsum cannot compensate decreasing FGD gypsum

quantities: Increased use of natural gypsum will be necessary.

Summary II


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Thank you for your attention !

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