the future of clean coal -where can ucg fit in the mix?
TRANSCRIPT
The future of clean coal - where can UCG fit in the mix?
Dr Lesley Sloss FRSC FIEnvSciIEA CCC, UK
Products and services offered by the Clean Coal Centre
Membership status of the IEA Clean Coal Centre at August 2014
Italy Japan
UK
BHEL
Anglo American Thermal Coal
USA
S Africa
Austria
Canada
GermanyCEC
Beijing ResearchInstitute of Coal Chemistry
Australia
Coal Association NZ
Suek
Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute of China
Banpu
Poland
The foremost centre of excellence for all aspects of clean coal
knowledge transfer
International Workshops held in 2014
• 10th Workshop on Mercury Emissions from Coal, Clearwater, Florida, USA, 22-25 April – Lesley Sloss
• 3rd Workshop on Upgrading and improving power plant efficiency, Shanghai, China, 16-17 September –Geoff Morrison
• 2nd Workshop on Advanced Ultra-supercritical power plants development, Rome, Italy, 14-15 October –Geoff Morrison
• 4th workshop on Cofiring Biomass with Coal, State College, Pennsylvania, USA, 5-6 November – Deborah Adams
• The 3rd Workshop on Underground Coal Gasification took place on 7-8 November 2013 in Brisbane, Australia
CCT 2015
• 6th International conference on Clean Coal Technology, Krakow, Poland, May 2015 - Robert Davidson
The future of clean coal - where can UCG fit in the mix?
This presentation will cover:
• The case for coal• The drivers for cleaner coal• Current production and use• UCG – where does it fit?
The case for coal
Fossil energy resources by type
Total remaining recoverable resourcesProven reservesCumulative production to date
Coal Natural gas Oil
3 050 years
233 years178 years 142 years
61 years 54 years
World energy demand continues to rise
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
MtoeOilCoalGas
Biomass
Nuclear
HydroOther renewables
Source: IEA WEO, 2013
Electricity generation in non-OECD countries is rising at an incredible rate
Electricity generation by source
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1990 2035
TWhOECD
2011 1990 2035
Non-OECD
2011
Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil
Source: IEA WEO, 2013
Global energy is changing
Challenge:• Developed regions are focusing on energy
efficiency and CO2 reduction
… but
• 1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities whilst having access potential access to coal
Investment is needed in clean and affordable energy in emerging regions
The drivers for cleaner coal
World energy demand &related CO2 emissions by scenario
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Mtoe
20
40
60
80 Gt
CO2 emissions (right axis):
Primary energy demand:
New Policies Scenario
Current Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
New Policies Scenario
Current Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
Change in world energy demand by fuel & scenario, 2011-2035
-1 500
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Otherrenewables
Mtoe Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
HELE future for coal
HELE is the means by which coal can remain in the energy mix in a carbon-constrained future
HELE = High efficiency low emission technology
• High efficiency combustion (super and ultra-supercritical and gasification options)
• State of the art flue gas cleaning• Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
HELE Technologies
+
HELE – High efficiency low emission
Legislation is evolving at different rates
Permit based limits and caps for major
pollutants, GHG trading
Relatively lenient
Relatively lenientGHG but not SO2/NOx
Relatively lenient
Relatively lenient
Japan, China and some of SE Asia have emission limits
Permits - combination of trading and emission limits
Combination of caps and emission limits
New SO2/NOx limits
Legislation in the EU
Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control
Large Combustion Plant Directive
EmissionsCeiling
Industrial Emissions Directive (IED)
What does the IED mean in practice?
All coal-fired units in the EU must have:• efficient particulate control systems• flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) or equivalent
technology to reduce emissions down to 150-400 mg/m3 or achieve over 92% removal (depending on plant size and age)
• low NOx burners and/or selective catalytic/non-catalytic reduction (SCR/SNCR) to reduce NOx emissions below 150-300 mg/m3
Plants must either meet this, work under a trading bubble or opt-out and close following limited operation until 2023 - this could mean around 1/3 of coal plants in the EU closing or fuel switching
Legislation in the US - emission limits under MATS(Mercury and Air Toxics Standards Rule)
In practice? - Retrofitting in the US
Coal plant closures, USA
Comparison of air pollution emission limits
What effect is legislation having on the coal industry?
In the EU, North America, Japan and China, plants which wish to continue operating into the next decade must have efficient controls for particulates, SO2 and NOx (all regions) and mercury (N America and China, incoming elsewhere)
Despite coal being “cheap”, maintaining a compliant coal plant is becoming expensive and some older plants do not merit the investment to remain open
New plants – must meet even stricter emission limits including, in some regions, either efficiency standards or CO2 limits
Proposed CO2 limits for new build coal plants
Country Proposed CO2 limit
EIB target* 550 kg/MWhUSA 500 kg/MWh (1,100 lbs/MWh)Europe 500/450 kg/MWhCanada 420 kg/MWh
Current averagefor coal plant >900 kg/MWh
* Proposed target by the European Investment bank above which funding will not be given
Stricter legislation is resulting in capacity change
Capacity additions & retirements by selected region, 2013-2035
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2012
GW Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
United States2012
European Union2012
China
Addi
tions
Retir
emen
ts
Retir
emen
ts
Addi
tions
Retir
emen
ts
2035Ad
ditio
ns2035 2035
Source: IEA WEO, 2013
Getting funding is challenging
Last year the World Bank announced a new directive to limit financing of coal-fired power plants to “rare circumstances” (although this may be reviewed)
Similar policies issued by the Obama Administration have sought to prevent investments into coal-fired power plants by the Treasury Department and the Export-Import Bank
But … South Africa alone has some 30 billion t of coal reserves. Zimbabwe has another 500 Mt. Tanzania and other countries also have plentiful coal resources
…. BUT coal-fired fleet to grow considerably (an extra 600-700 Mt of coal demand?)
Platt’s Power Station Database, as of 2013
• 363 stations (711 units) are under construction (or repowered)
• Totalling ~293 GWe• versus 41 GWe of gas-fired new builds
Of the new coal projects:• 109 GWe in India• 106 GWe in China• 5-13 GWe in each of the following countries:
Germany (8), Indonesia (13), Korea (6), S Africa (10), Taiwan (5), Vietnam (13)
New challenges for coal
The current focus in the OECD is moving from traditional pollutants (particulates, SO2 and NOx) to GHG, especially CO2
Many regions have targets for renewables, efficiency and CO2 reduction
Coal faces a challenge to be seen as a feasible option in a carbon-constrained future
The future for coal?
In the developed world, the challenge is compliance - methods of coal combustion will need to change to meet HELE requirements to remain part of the future energy mix
In the emerging world, the challenge is often funding and accessibility, with environmental challenges for conventional coal
Will unconventional coal and gas be important?
Current production and use of unconventional coal and gas
Unconventional coal and gas options
• Fracking and shale gas
• Coal bed methane (CBM)
• UCG
Unconventional resources are widely distributed
Remaining unconventional gas resources in selected regions, end-2012 (tcm)
History of fracking in the USA
• Fracking since late 1800s and early 1900s to stimulate wells in hard rock
• Legislation to protect ground water introduced in 1970s by EPA
• Unconventional gas resources explored in 1970-80s
• 1999 – Barnett shale in Texas starts the modern high pressure process of fracking –by 2004 EPA queries environmental impacts
• 2005 – the most important date, Energy Policy Act exempts fracking from key legislative obstacles; but investigations into harmful impacts continue
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Ruhrfisch
Growth in US shale gas since 2005
• Discovery of shale gas has boosted US gas reserves by 750 tcf to 2300 tcf (+30% over conventional reserves); and 24 billion bbls of oil
• And production boosted by 20% over the last few years
Global transportation market as an application of CBM, market estimates and forecast
Can UCG be a means of moving coal into the “healthier” gas market?
Majuba
Anti-UCG propaganda
“Setting fire to coal underground could answer our energy prayers, or start an environmental disaster on a bigger scale than ever before.
If you thought shale gas was a nightmare, you ain't seen nothing yet ….To the horror of anyone concerned about climate change, modern miners want to set fire to these deep coal seams and capture the gases this creates for industry and power generation. Some say this will provide energy security for generations to come. Others warn that it is a whole new way to fry the planet.”
New Scientist, March 2014
But UCG can be cleaner than conventional coal
Can UCG be seen as a HELE option?
IEA comments:
• UCG using state of the art gas turbines could approach the efficiencies achieved by IGCC (up to 45% or more)
• UCG might offer a relatively simple and low-cost way of storing CO2; given favourable geological conditions, CO2from reacted syngas could be stored underground in the cavities created by the UCG process
Significant work on UCG continues
New developments being announced
• Linc Energy (MoU) for a 400 MW UCG project in Tanzania to provide power to the Tanzanian electricity grid by 2017 (announced 6th Aug 2014)
• On the 4th August 2014, it was announced that the Indian Government are preparing a draft policy on UCG. Several coal blocks have been identified for UCG purpose for government companies in the state and the applications for the same have been invited http://coal.steelguru.com/india/16921/india_govt_preparing_draft_policy_on_underground_coal_gasification
Challenges for UCG
• funding towards commercialisation
• prove potential as an unconventional gas source
• improved media and public perception
• proof of CCS potential and inclusion as a HELE option
Bridging required
HELE …. We’re only half way to where we need to be
HELE = High efficiency coal + CCSHELE = UCG + commercialisation + CCS
