the future needs of mobile network operators
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The Future Needs of Mobile Network Operators
By : Antonis Hontzeas
Today’s mobile communication networks may be considered to be at a crossroad.
Current subscriber demand for high quality undisrupted mobile communication
service implies continual maintenance and upgrades of the existing circuit switched
voice networks. Increasing demand for multimedia communication services requires
high quality bandwidth and capacity availability in a resilient and cost effective
manner.
Mobile Market Transformation
According to the UMTS forum white paper Recognizing the Future of Mobile
Broadband , “Mobile broadband subscribers and revenues in the top five European
markets are forecast to nearly double by 2011. Subscriber numbers are predicted to
rise from about 22 million at the end of 2009 to over 43 million in 2011 and revenues
to rise from less than 6 billion in 2009 to more than 11 billion in 2011”
In any multimedia session, a laptop generates the equivalent signaling load as 1300 basic feature phones, a smartphone generates 10 times more traffic than a basic phone
and an iphone generates up to 30 times more signaling traffic and equivalent load than
a basic phone with speech capabilities.
In addition, mobile video capabilities consume 100 times more bandwidth than
normal speech calls and create a signaling load equivalent to sending 500,000 SMS
simultaneously from a basic mobile phone.
Canadian operator Rogers Wireless stipulates that network demand for mobile video
is expected to increase about 200% while network demand for music downloads by
about 160%.
Operators are thus facing increasing pressure from a plethora of new devices and peer
applications to upgrade their systems to high quality, high capacity broadband
capabilities; while revenues at the same time are leveling off (the commoditization
effect of voice and SMS traffic) putting financial pressure on the operator and the
mobile operator’s ability to preserve targeted Return on Investment (ROI), while
adequately maintaining and evolving the supporting network.
Converging Divergent Business Habits
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Mobile operators and internet companies have to somehow close the existing
negotiation range and converge to a commonly accepted business model and way of
working.
Telecom operators in the past and today, through technologies such as IMS focus on
quick and high quality service delivery, and interconnectivity,interoperability andinterworkability.
A service introduced into a mobile network is designed, tested and rolled out in such a
way that it remains transparently available through all cooperating networks, and with
the highest possible negotiated quality, always preserving network integrity.
Internet companies on the other hand design applications with a peer to peer strategy,
taking for granted network existence and resilience and many times strategically
positioning their products to limit the network to a carrier type of role.
Reducing Total Cost of Ownership
In response to the users' increasing demands for high quality wireless anytime
anywhere broadband connectivity, operators are gearing up and accelerating their
deployments of broadband access systems.
Where WCDMA took four years to reach 100 deployments, over 100 HSPA capable
access systems were deployed within a year's time. HSPA+ is anticipated to become
mainstream by 2013 and LTE a couple of years later.
In addition, new technologies have introduced innovative techniques to push morethroughput out of a communication session, without straining the limits of a particular
radio channel.
Since Shannon’s Laws put a limit on how much more throughput can be achieved
from an existing communication channel, new techniques such as MIMO and OFDM
increase communication in a cost effective manner respecting both engineering and
economic efficiencies.
A study by Analysis Mason using about 10,000 base stations has concluded while
WCDMA has a cost benefit of about 0.06 Euro per bit, HSPA+ increases this benefit
to 0.03 Euros per bit and LTE promises, in addition to Total Cost of Ownershipimprovements from self tuning self optimizing capabilities, to increase the stated
benefit to about 0.01 Euro/bit.
Networks First, Applications Soon
Mobile operators are thus challenged to provide high quality revenue generating
speech capabilities coupled with broadband network upgrades that will capture this
new incoming broadband application market. A common dilemma faced by operators
and technologist is whether to wait for new applications and then move towards the
broadband path, or install broadband capabilities first.
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History has shown broadband and powerful computing capabilities produce an
ecosystem that quickly incubates new ideas, new technologies and applications. In the
case of the personal computer, interesting multimedia applications appeared only after
the necessary computing power and multimedia technologies were in place.
In the case of telecommunications, broadband radio systems such as LTE, fixedtechnologies such as fibre and high speed DSL, and cost saving engineering and
economic practices such as convergent systems, network sharing, spectrum
harmonization, co sitting and perhaps network outsourcing and managed services
(with the respective legislative support to protect intellectual property rights and idea
ownership) will surely produce the necessary support environment to allow the
visionary, the entrepreneur and the dreamer to flourish.
This also means that the successful future players will be those ( regardless of whether
they are mobile operators, web companies, individuals or a healthy mix of all) that
will effectively and imaginatively combine the inventive entrepreneurial spirit with
the required team spirit to ensure that the target subscriber base is offered the bestservices possible, at the most representative price.
Sources:
1. UMTS Forum, Recognizing the Future of Mobile Broadband: July 10, p. 5.
2. Nikos Katinakis VP Strategy and Technological Development ,Technological
Solutions and Greater Use of Commercial Networks: Rogers 2010
3. UMTS Forum ,Mobile Broadband Evolution : the roadmap from HSPA to
LTE: Feb. 2009, pp. 5,12
4.
Analysys Mason, Wireless broadband forecasts for 2008–2015: HSPA,HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX, July 2008