the future lambscape alex ball program manager, meat & livestock australia
TRANSCRIPT
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The future lambscapeAlex BallProgram Manager, Meat & Livestock Australia
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State of the industry today
• Flock size is recovering• Good returns over past 5-7 years• Strong sense of achievement• Confidence is high• Land use competition• Next phase of change about to begin
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Relative real price trends
1980-...1985-...
1990-...1995-...
2000-...2005-...
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Beef
Lamb
Wool
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Wool and lamb income (real)
1980-1984 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009$0.00
$10,000.00
$20,000.00
$30,000.00
$40,000.00
$50,000.00
$60,000.00
$70,000.00
Wool IncomeLamb Income
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The challenges
The customer
The peopleThe sheep
Leading the supply of premium lamb to
the world
• Nutritional and quality value• Environmental footprint• Water efficiency• Welfare compliance/requirements
• Labour – the handbrake to growth• Increased competition for resources• Information management• More complex terms of trade
• Genetic/genomic evolution• Managing key diseases• Balancing yield and eating quality• Optimum ewe size
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In 10 years time
Value and productivity doubled over the past 10 years
• New generation of producers• Three generations of sheep to affect
change• Only 5-10 million more sheep
– can this happen again?
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The industry in 10 years
• 60% of product to export markets• High cost product, high cost compliance • Essential to mixed farming enterprises• Limited intensive feeding for eating quality• National and international welfare standards• Natural resource management targets• Community and consumer driven
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The sheep in 10 years
Eating and nutritional quality - integral to all breeding programs
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Consumer Tested over 2 years200 sires
1,477 lambs tested (+ Dorpers)Short loin and topside as a grill
From a Fail to a 5* productAll at $38 kg
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The sheep in 10 years
Eating and nutritional quality - integral to all breeding programs
• Breeds morphed into Brands• 150% lambing and 95% survival• 500 grams per day growth rates• 45 kilograms at 8-10 months• Genomic selection imbedded• Non-visual traits dominating selection
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Improving productivity
Ewe Single Twin Change in Efficiency
Weight 60kg 60kg
Lambs 1 2
Lamb weight 55kg 45kg
Total weight 55kg 90kg
Weight /kg ewe
0.91 kg 1.5 kg 65%
Weight /dse 34.3 kg 37.5 kg 9%
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Management in 10 yearsMore complex, more opportunities
• Focused on pastures and pasture utilisation• Focussed on resource allocation
• Water and resource allocation (kg/ha/ml h20)
• 90% of decisions based on info from remote monitoring tools
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People in 10 years
More sheep, less people, more complex decisions
• Manage and use information• Embrace technology• Linked to product and brands
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The producer “action” pattern
Knowledge20%
Decisions(Tactical and
Strategic)70%
Data (easy)10%
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Change now for the future
Consumer and community satisfaction – know what they want, when and why
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Change now for the future
Consumer and community satisfaction – know what they want, when and why
• Perform to market requirements• Measure everything• Resource management • Invest in technology• Invest in yourself to transform• Information into decisions
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The future lambscape