The Future is NowMaking the Right Decisions

for Educating South Carolina’s Youth

First Steps Executive Director Institute June 26, 2008

The Colonial Center

James T. Darby, Jr.Executive Director,

Santee-Lynches Regional COG

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

A Tale of Two CitiesCharles Dickens

1859

“Sweet are the uses of adversity.”As You Like It

William Shakespeare 1599-1600

U.S. Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Challenges Ahead

The United States faces economic, demographic, and fiscal realities that threaten our economic growth and competitiveness.

• The forces of globalization and technology continue to redefine the knowledge economy; tomorrow’s workers must rely more on brain than on brawn.

• Without a well-educated workforce, it will be difficult to maintain the increases in productivity that raise American standards of living.

Source:The Economic Promise of Investing in High Quality Preschool:Sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts, Committee for Economic Development, 2006

Demographic Changes will also make it Difficult to Attract and Retain the

Skilled Workers we Need

• Past increases in economic output were propelled in part by rapid growth in the size of the U.S. labor force.

• In the coming years, U.S. and local labor force growth will slow sharply as the Baby Boomer generation retires.

Source: The Economic Promise of Investing in High Quality Preschool: Sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts, Committee for Economic Development, 2006

MEDIAN AGE TRENDS: S.C., GEORGIA, & N.C. (2000-2030)

323436384042

2000 2010 2020 2030Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 Georgia N. Carolina S. Carolina

Projected Under 18, 65 & Over Population for 2030

Under 18Population

Under 18Percent ofTotal Population

65 & Over Population

65 & Over Percent of Total Population

Percent Difference Under 18and 65 &Over

Georgia 3,146,624

26.2% 1,907,837

15.9% 10.3%

North Carolina

3,080,611

25.2% 2,173,173

17.8% 7.4%

South Carolina

1,143,807

22.2% 1,134,459

22.0% 0.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Projections, 2005

South Carolina Age Group Trends 2000 to 2030

400

1,200

2,000

2,800

2000 2010 2020 2030Source: U.S. Census Bureau Projections 2005

In Tho

usan

ds

Youth Working Age Seniors

Note: These numbers used in this graphic are rounded to the nearest 1,000.

Improving labor force quality will also be difficult since high school and college graduation rates are lower than previous decades.

Overall 8th grade-to-graduation rate estimates by county and state

County ‘00-01 ‘01-02 ‘02-03 3-yr. avg. ‘03-04 ‘04-05 ‘05-06 3-yr.

avg.3-yr.

avg. hike ‘06-07

Clarendon 54.3% 57.5% 57.5% 56.4% 57.5% 61.3% 62.3% 60.4% +4.0% 66.4%

Kershaw 63.2% 64.7% 67.1% 65.0% 66.0% 65.0% 67.9% 66.3% +1.3% 68.5%

Lee 43.5% 50.6% 52.1% 48.4% 45.2% 55.8% 61.7% 54.2% +5.8% 47.3%

Sumter 53.1% 53.2% 58.8% 55.0% 60.2% 64.7% 66.7% 63.9% +8.9% 67.2%

STATE 56.8% 57.2% 64.8% 59.5% 60.9% 61.8% 66.2% 63.0% +3.5% 67.5%

Year Fall 2000

Fall 2001

Fall 2002

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 2007

Percent change ’00-’07

Enrollment of credit students*

2,546 2,962 3,265 3,191 3,259 3,244 2,931 3,283 +28.9%

542 (16.5%) are 18-19 year-olds

Central Carolina Technical College enrollment

* Credit students are enrolled in a formal program of study to earn a certificate, diploma or degree.

Year Fall 2000

Fall 2001

Fall 2002

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 2007

Percent change ’00-’07

Full-time freshmen from high school

265 267 282 270 231 205 247 299 +12.8%

Total enrollment

940 986 1,049 1,007 897 863 824 893 -5.0%

Morris College enrollment

USC Sumter enrollmentYear Fall

2000Fall 2001

Fall 2002

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 2007

Percent change ’00-’07

Full-time freshmen from high school

193 191 200 171 200 183 224 250* +29.5%

Total enrollment

1,173 1,184 1,149 1,184 1,042 1,020 1,088 1,174 +0.1%

* Increase in 2007 from 2006 due to new athletics program.

CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITIES for PEOPLE OF COLOR

• Most new workers will need to come from minority populations that have historically completed fewer years of school.

Source: The Economic Promise of Investing in High Quality Preschool: Sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts, Committee for Economic Development, 2006

56,72655,22957,94965,22474,89366,610

14.997 18,013 22,411 30,53636,379 44,604

020,00040,00060,00080,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

17 Yrs & Under 55 Yrs & Over

There is a racial dimension to the potential lack of sufficient young workers to replace the aging workforce. While the Black population accounts for 44.2% of the region’s total population, they account for 50.3% of the region’s youth 17-and-under. When combined with other traditional minorities, this percentage increases to 53.7% of the youth population.

Source: US Census Bureau – 1950-2000 Census

Clarendon, Kershaw, Lee and Sumter CountiesThe Santee-Lynches Region’s Population is Aging

Aging Population (continued)County Median Age by Race – Census 2000

Population Clarendon Co.

Kershaw Co. Lee County Sumter Co.

Black 31.7 Years 35.0 Years 31.5 Years 30.7 Years

White 43.3 Years 38.5 Years 42.3 Years 36.2 Years

Overall median age

37.0 Years 37.4 Years 35.7 Years 33.4 Years

The Black portion of the region’s population is significantly younger than the White population. Therefore, Black youth will make up a larger share of the future labor force available to fill jobs vacated by retirees. This will require a much greater commitment on the part of the minority youth, local educators and business leaders to insure these young people are fully prepared to meet this situation.

Poverty

“Two nations, between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other’s habits, thoughts, and feelings as if they were dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of different planets; who are formed by a different breeding, are fed by a different food, are ordered by different manners, and are not governed by the same laws … the rich and the poor.”

1845 , Benjamin DisraeliBritish Prime Minister and author

Source:The Impact of Poverty: The Poor Among Us; Leslie Cantu, Senior Staff WriterThe Item, October 8, 2006

“We’re going to have to look beyond ourselves, beyond our individual schools

and school districts, and work to put a better funding system in place. We may be uncomfortable in the short term, but in the long run it will be the only thing that saves

our state from ruin.”

Jim RexState Superintendent of Education

June 18, 2008

STATE Clarendon Lee SumterOverall poverty rate

14.1 23.1 21.8 16.2

White population 8.6 11.2 6.9 6.9Black population 26.4 32.1 30.7 26.5Hispanic population

25.4 53.6 15.3 24.6Source: US Census 2000

Poverty rates by ethnic group -- 2000

The basics of being “At-Risk”

• “Between birth and age six, children develop the essential language and cognitive skills required to learn reading and arithmetic.

• They also develop their ability to manage emotions

and stress, and to cooperate with others.

• Lack of school readiness puts children at risk of academic, social and behavioral difficulties in school, leaving before high school graduation, becoming involved in criminal behavior, becoming pregnant as a teenager, and becoming addicted to tobacco, alcohol and other drugs.”*

* Development Health and the Wealth of Nations: Social, Biological and Educational Dynamics (1999), Keating, HertzmanThe Case for an Early Childhood Development Strategy, Autumn 2000

Jim Rex’s State of Education speechJune 18, 2008

Percentages of children in poverty and children in single-parent families impede

educational attainment in our state.

(S.C. ranks 36th in both categories.)

Youth, Adult & Single-Parent

Statistics

Percent of students meeting standards on 2007 PACTGrade Curric. Lee Clar. 1 Clar. 2 Clar. 3 Sum. 17 Kershaw STATE

3 English 75.1 95.2 86.8 86.0 82.4 87.7 85.8Math 56.3 83.3 73.1 65.2 76.7 82.4 78.4

4 English 49.7 74.2 79.2 88.5 79.5 87.2 82.7Math 38.5 61.3 68.2 90.9 72.7 79.0 78.1

5 English 37.4 41.9 59.8 75.7 77.2 79.5 77.2Math 38.7 45.2 57.8 76.0 76.3 77.4 77.7

6 English 42.3 48.0 66.9 56.8 60.2 74.6 70.9Math 49.4 52.0 77.0 73.4 69.7 83.2 77.2

7 English 46.6 58.8 56.7 67.0 68.0 78.4 69.8Math 54.6 67.6 70.5 79.6 69.6 84.3 76.8

8 English 57.4 48.8 61.9 59.6 61.7 76.2 71.3Math 44.8 36.3 56.9 62.9 54.5 74.8 67.9

Red totals indicate less than 60 percent of students scored Basic or better.

Orange totals indicate percentage of students scoring Basic or better was over 60 percent but still more than 10 percent below state average.

48.1%

21.4%

35.0%

20.4%

45.5%

26.1%

35.5%

17.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Clarendon Kershaw Lee Sumter

Note: White percentages are for White Non Hispanic Population

Percent of Persons 25 Years & Over Without a High School Diploma by Race (Santee-Lynches Region)

African-AmerWhite

Source: U.S. Census 2000

Percent of children in single-parent families

17.8

21.8

33.7

41.9

18.820.6

30.0

39.3

15.9

20.6

26.2

34.0

14.5

18.9

25.1

31.3

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1970 1980 1990 2000

Perc

ent

Lee Clarendon Sumter State

The continuing rise in out-of-wedlock births and the divorce rate have resulted in a phenomenal increase in single-parent families throughout the state. Our three counties have a very high percentage of children in single-parent families, with 40% of all children in Lee and Clarendon living in single-parent families.

Single-parent families

The percentage of children in single-parent families has more than doubled in each county and the state since 1970.

U.S. Census 1970-2000

Single-parent families and poverty

Area Minority childrenin single-parent

families

White childrenin

single-parentfamilies

Children in single-parent

families inpoverty

Children inmarried families

in poverty

Clarendon 53.2% 17.9% 42.7% 11.5%

Lee 51.6% 18.1% 39.9% 9.0%

Sumter 49.0% 17.3% 36.6% 7.2%

STATE 52.0% 19.0% 34.0% 6.2%

Source: U.S. Census 2000

Single-parent families are a major component of poverty at the state and local levels. A majority of these families are headed by single females and many are likely to be poor. Race plays another key role in the overall numbers with minorities having significantly higher levels of single-parent families and the associated poorer living conditions.

Why is this important?

Generational Poverty and Situational Poverty are Different

“Generational poverty is defined as being in poverty for two generations or longer. Situational poverty exists for a shorter time and is caused by circumstances like death, illness, or divorce.”

Source:No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from PovertyPayne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

ThresholdCounties (4)

Average 22.3%Persistent Poverty

(12)

(34) Average 12.7%Other

“The environment of generational poverty (two generations or more) requires that an individual become reactive, sensory-based (physical) and dependent on non-verbals as a primary information source because those three things help one survive the environment.”

Source:No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from PovertyPayne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

“To survive in the school and work environment, one needs to be proactive, verbal and abstract.”

Source:No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from PovertyPayne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

“Being proactive (ability to plan), verbal (use of specific language) and abstract (ability to represent the sensory) are all learned. They can be taught. Many students who are assigned to special education are from poverty and cannot do these three things. Rather than teach these things, educators tend to assign the student to a different placement.”

Source:No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from PovertyPayne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

“Please understand that students from poverty are much more capable than students from middle class in surviving a reaction, non-verbal, sensory-based (physical) environment. This is not about intelligence. It is about what the environment requires.”

Source:No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from PovertyPayne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

According to author Ruby K. Payne, ‘being poor brings out a survival mentality, and turns attention away from opportunities taken for granted by the middle class and wealthy.’

Source:A Framework for Understanding Poverty; Payne, Ruby K.Aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

“Planning is key to the tasks that get finished and to the control of impulsivity. Even more importantly, brain research indicates that the primary filter for what gets noticed by the mind is closely correlated with the goals of the person. So when there is no planning, there are no goals. Emotional need or association, then, determines activities.”

Source:No Child Left Behind: How do you Develop Intellectual Capital in Children from PovertyPayne, Ruby K.; Founder of aha! Process, Inc. News, Highland, Texas

“Problems cannot be solved … with the same thinking

that created them.”

Albert Einstein

There are pragmatic reasons to extend a hand to low-income Americans as well, said Sue Berkowitz, director of South Carolina Appleseed Justice Center.

“As we help others in our community, it helps our community as a whole,” she said.

If we invest in education, we’ll have a more educated workforce, which helps the business community, she said. Helping people with childcare allows them to work and be productive; ensuring that working people can earn enough to support a family can ease off on stressors that can sometimes lead to domestic violence, child abuse, or crime she said. In the long run, investing money upfront in helping people be self-supporting will save money on state programs and departments on the back end.

“You will see an effect on all of us,” she said.Source:

The Impact of Poverty: The Poor Among Us; Leslie Cantu, Senior Staff WriterThe Item, October 8, 2006

In 15 years since the school-funding lawsuit began much as changed in S.C. …

• Public school enrollment: In 1993, it was 630,100 students; today, 685,600.

• First-year teacher’s average salary: In 1993, it was $19,241; today, it’s $31,314 (62% increase).

• Average salary, all teachers: In 1993, $29,299; today, $45,526 (55.7% increase)

• Public school spending: In 1993, $1.8 billion; anticipated in coming year, $3.7 billion (105% increase)

Source: The State newspaper, June 23, 2008

Benefits from Public Investment strategy to generate positive returns

Strategic Public Policy & Investment

Savings

Reinvestment Options:

Impact

Negative Public Costs

(1) Wrong Policy & Investment/Cost Increase

Trend

(2) Breakeven – Maintain Policy

(3) Best Practice – Net Gain

SustainabilityNew Programs and ServicesGeneral Cost Reduction

Cost Reduction

Time

Cost $0.00

Examples:IncarcerationLoss of potential incomeHealth care

Incarceration costs

S.C. INMATE PROFILE23,434 inmates – June 30, 2007

• 59% don’t have high school diploma/GED• 48% are drug abusers• For 20% of inmates, drugs are the “most

serious offense.” (The offense with the highest severity level.)

• 62.3% are African American men• 23% are 25 years old or younger

Source: S.C. Department of Corrections

WEIGHING THE COSTSINCARCERATION - VERSUS - EDUCATION

1 Adult Inmate 1 Juvenile 1 StudentIncarcerated Incarcerated EducatedIn State In State In State$41.52/day $135/day $22.35/day$15,156/year $49,275/year $8,159/year

THE DIFFERENCES

Juvenile/Student Adult Inmate/Student

Cost per day more than Cost per day nearly double

six times expensive (1.86 times as expensive)

Sources: Fiscal 2006 statistics from S.C. Department of Corrections, S.C. Department of Juvenile Justice, and S.C. Department of Education

1 StudentEducatedIn State

$22.35/day$8,159/year

State incarceration rates

857

723682 670

611558 546 526

451

362

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

La. Miss. Texas Okla. Ala. Ga. Ariz. S.C. Stateavg.

N.C.

2007 state incarceration rates (per 100,000 residents) -- S.C. is 8th among 50 states --

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics 2007 report, U.S. Department of Justice

Income loss

Some College and Per Capita Income, 2000, for adults 25-and-older

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Percent of Population With At Least Some College

Per

Cap

ita P

erso

nal I

ncom

e

Marlboro

Beaufort

CharlestonRichland

Lee Clar-endon

• $16,121/yr No High School Diploma $644,840 (40 yrs)• $24,572/yr High School Diploma $982,880• $32,152/yr Associate Degree $1,286,080• $45,678/yr Bachelor Degree $1,827,120• $55,641/yr Master Degree $2,225,640• $86,833/yr Doctorate Degree $3,473,320

U.S. Census 2000

EDUCATION ATTAINMENT & EARNINGS POTENTIAL

Recent graduation rates study findingsSumter County dropouts or non-diploma recipients by cohort class

2000-‘01 2001-‘02 2002-‘03 2003-‘04 2004-‘05 2005-‘06 2006-‘07

698 679 580 592 480 459 488

During recent academic years (2003-04 through 2006-07), the three public high schools in Sumter County with a 64.7% graduation rate have combined to lose an average of 505 students annually who failed to graduate with a state diploma.

505 students x $16,121 wages = $8.1M total wages per year

505 students x $24,572 wages = $12.4M total wages per year

A difference of $4.3M per year and $171M over 40 years.

Health Care Costs

Source: S.C. Budget & Control Board, Office of Research & Statistics, 2003-06 annual data

Totals don’t include ER outpatient services

$31.38

$41.06

$51.75$53.99

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00

$50.00

$55.00

$60.00

2003 2004 2005 2006

Santee-Lynches Region’s annual charges for “Uninsured” inpatient hospitalizations (in millions of dollars)

$22.6M increase

from 2003 to 2006 in 4 counties.

(Clarendon, Kershaw, Lee & Sumter)

So, What Are We To Do?We tease apart the fibers of chronic poverty:

• Develop a new understanding of what poverty is and the specific proven methods to overcome it

• Re-evaluate education methods used in rural areas of South Carolina that have historically demonstrated chronic social and economic poverty

• Community-wide early childhood development emphasis:– 0-3 years: at home– 3-5 years: pre-school

• Certified child daycare service accessibility • Adult education – minimum GED/HS equivalent for 18-55 year old population without a

High School diploma, emphasize reading and comprehension @ or > 9 th grade• Review with school district administrators the secondary curriculum to insure core

competencies: reading, math, and critical thinking to improve problem solving skills relevant to business

• Prioritize post secondary training accessibility, “no wrong door” approach to life long learning

• Enhance the linkages between education, workforce and economic development: must have jobs available to those persons who both qualify and are actively seeking employment

• Measure outcomes, demand accountability on behalf of individuals, the at-large community, and institutions

• Adjust the process to enable responding even more effectively [as knowledge and skills improve] to changing local and regional circumstances

Where to Begin?– Acknowledge the problem(s) and understand their factual basis; seek to

build community consensus as a foundation for future problem solving, accept responsibility locally for finding and implementing correct solutions

– Identify and raise up real community champions - persons committed to positive community change, ignoring who or what organization gets the credit

– Build strong, sustainable outcome-based partnerships within the community. Example: Education-friendly community model being developed by Clemson University.

– Recognize and accept the fact that there are no quick fixes, but consistent predictable progress is what is called for

– Find common ground and understanding between the races and different ethnic groups. From a geographic community perspective we are all in the same boat, floating in a global economic ocean. There are other boats there also. All are subject to the same winds, waves, the heat of the sun and the cold of the night. Those communities that have accepted leaders and choose to work together for the good of the whole, will not only survive, but will prosper!

Others will, over time, fade away to a lesser existence. This is the economic reality of the 21st century.

RULES1. Get to the table and stay at the table2. “You are entitled to your own

opinions, but not to your own facts.” Be prepared to test the facts that are presented or bring yours.

3. Enjoy the benefits of the information age. Get the best facts, analyze, interpret and develop best practices for applying the information.

4. Politics – the art of compromise – within the context of the intended direction, must have a “short game” and a “long game.”

5. Be prepared to compromise if it enables you to relocate to a stronger position.

TOOLS1. Advocacy – proactive engagement

within the context of the “Rules”.2. Investment versus “expenditures”

mindset - expect a return.3. Engagement – meaningful

dialogue – give and take with a deliberate message and a time to listen.

4. Partnerships – essential in today’s fiscal and multi special interest business environment.

Level 1: Working together toward an outcome of common interest.

Level 2: Policy of joint investment with specific, but realistic outcome expectations.

“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free,” Thomas Jefferson wrote in 1816, “it

expects what never was and never will be.”

Richard Stengel, Managing EditorTIME, Oct. 2, 2006

www.santeelynchescog.org

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