the future dr. chandu visweswariah ceo, utopus insights, inc. · annual energy policy summit 2...

The Future (of the Grid)

Dr. Chandu VisweswariahCEO, Utopus Insights, Inc.

August 6, 2017

www.utopusinsights.com National Conference of State LegislatorsAnnual Energy Policy Summit

http://www.utopusinsights.com/

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s aboutthe

future.”

"The Future," Chandu VisweswariahCEO, Utopus Insights Inc.

National Conference of State LegislatorsAnnual Energy Policy Summit

2

— Niels Bohr, physicist

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

— Abraham Lincoln / Peter Drucker

“The biggest risk is to not take any.”

— Kerrick Johnson, VP Strategy, VELCO

“The future is coming at us faster than ever before.”

— Chandu Visweswariah

Is the future coming at us faster? Why?



3

Googlesearches

2.4 M / minute 19 years

E-mail 150 M / minute 25 years

Snapchat 1.8 M / minute 6 years

Tinder 972 K / minute 5 years

1



4

Tipping points

2Future grid

3Digital energy revolution Call to action

4

Disruptive energy mega-trends

AD

OPTI

ON

TIME

We are here

20202010

$150/kWh

PMUs

Solar grid parity

Wind grid parity

Smart meterroll-out



5

Tipping point: Cost of delivered electricity

*“Natural Gas and Wind are the Lowest-Cost Generation Technologies for Much of the U.S.,” UT Austin report, December 8, 2016



6

$234,,000000,,0000,,00000



7

$268,000,000,000

Worldwide 2015 new electricity generation spend

4x 6x

Tipping point: Strategic electrification

8"The Future," Chandu VisweswariahCEO, Utopus Insights Inc.


3x 1.5 – 10x

Tipping points

Tipping points are followed by mass adoption

Tipping points are caused by economics!

Tipping points are inexorable



9

1



10

Tipping points

2Future grid


4

Energy transformation Sankey diagram 2015 2050

Courtesy Dr. Asa Hopkins from the Vermont CEP (Comprehensive Energy Plan), Planning and Energy Resources Division, Public Service Department

Internal combustion EV



11

Rate payersEngaged “prosumers,”democratized grid

Volumetric sales New business models

Generation follows load Load follows generation

Static planningDigitization with predictive

real-time optimization

What do these changes mean for the grid?

TODAY’S GRID TOMORROW’SGRID

Centralized, 1-way flow Distributed, omni-directional

Small-scale uncertainty Large-scale uncertainty



12

In short… we need a grand orchestration

Constrained/Scarce Energy Abundant/Plentiful Energy

“Later” “Run the dishwasher”

Discharge Charge the battery

Delay or vehicle-to-grid Charge the EV

Turn on expensive power Curtail expensive power

Post-heat, post-cool Pre-heat, pre-cool

DER = “Distributed Energy Resources” or “Digital EnergyRevolution?”"The Future," Chandu VisweswariahCEO, Utopus Insights Inc.


13

Three legs of the stool

Digitizatio

n"The Future," Chandu VisweswariahCEO, Utopus Insights Inc.


14

1



15

Tipping points

2Future grid


4

Need of the day: “a new intelligence”

Hyper-local



16


National Conference of State Legislators

Hyper-local

Use all datasources

Need of the day: “Cauranteedwataintelligence”

automatically into a common data model

Specialized high-resolution weather

Unsupervised deepmachine learning:Solar 94% accuracyWind 91% accuracy

Demand 98% accuracy

StochasticoptimizatiAonnnual Energy Policy Summit

"The Future," Chandu Visweswariah National Conference of State Legislators18

CEO, Utopus Insights Inc. Annual Energy Policy Summit

Smart meter penetration 2015



Institute for Electric Innovation

Number one in installed wind: 20 GW

Texas

Clean Energy Momentum, Ranking State Progress,Union of Concerned Scientists, April 2017

Alaskah

Hawaii"The Future," Chandu Visweswaria National Conference of State Legislators

Annual Energy Policy Summit20

CEO, Utopus Insights Inc.

Number one in solar per household: 960 W


Alaskah




Highest percent of renewable electricity: 76.3%

South Dakota


Alaskah




Highest increase in renewable fraction: 8% 24%


Alaskah




Most new renewables since 2011: 1.6 kW per capita


Alaskah




50% reduction of methane (a.k.a. natural gas)


Alaskah




Strongest energy efficiency savings/standard: 2.9%

RI


Alaskah




Most electric vehicle (EV) penetration: 3.5%


Alaskah




Friendliest to business for renewable adoption


Alaskah




1



29

Tipping points

2Future grid


4

Take-aways

Ignore exponential trends at your peril!

Winning technologies are determined by economics!

Embrace digital data and insights thereof!

Call to action

Long-term energy plan

Millennial focus groups

Business-friendly? Cloud-friendly?



39

Thank you!



31

the future dr. chandu visweswariah ceo, utopus insights, inc. · annual energy policy summit 2...

Documents