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Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada Conference 2015 Toronto, Canada March 1, 2015 Presented by John Kaiser www.KaiserResearch.com The Four Core Narratives

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Page 1: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s

Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada Conference 2015

Toronto, Canada

March 1, 2015

Presented by John Kaiser

www.KaiserResearch.com

The Four Core Narratives

Page 2: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 3: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 4: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 5: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s

Where do the Key Narratives stand today?

Commodity Cycle Security of Supply

Gold Bug Discovery Exploration

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Pebble

Oyu Tolgoi

Duluth-TMM

Page 7: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 8: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 9: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s

Chinese production from 2009-2014 was 2,281 t which would put China in third place if central bank bought it all.

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Potential Geopolitical Train Wrecks

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$1 billion buyout by Barrick What does it take these days to count as a major new discovery?

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Page 13: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
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• Usage Innovation

• Functionality innovation

• Policy Demand Drivers

• Policy Supply Disrupters

• Process Innovation

• Fashion Trends

• Deposit depletion

• Geopolitical supply disruptions

• Transportation supply disruptions

Security of Supply Narratives

Page 15: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
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Page 18: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 19: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
Page 20: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s
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Scandium

The shy metal that will steal the show.

Page 22: The Four Core Narratives - Kaiser Research Online - Home ... · PDF fileThe Four Core Narratives. Where do the Key Narratives stand today? Commodity Cycle Security of Supply ... Aluminum’s

• Strengthens aluminum – allowing weight reduction without safety sacrifice

• Increases conductivity of aluminum – stronger high tension wires can have longer spans between support towers without wheeling losses

• Weld joints are as strong as the alloy material – important for high stress applications such as airplane struts and skins

• Amenable to 3D printing with AlSc powders

• Corrosion resistant – naval applications

• Raises the melt point of aluminum – allows weight saving applications such as car brake rotors

Scandium: Aluminum’s Perfect Alloy Spouse

Could scandium do for aluminum what niobium did for steel if there were a primary, scalable supply?

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During the past 50 years hundreds of patents involving scandium have been filed. To this day the holders and the media lament scandium’s scarcity.

Almost nobody gets what a game changer this is about to become.

During the last 6 years major enriched scandium deposits have been found by juniors that offer primary, scalable supply potential.

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Scandium Intl (SCY-T), CleanTeq (CLQ-ASX) and Platina (PGM-ASX) have the tonnage and grade needed for unlimited supply in the $1,000-$2,000/kg range. The next milestone is to deliver the goods.

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Aluminum Alloy Market

Solid Oxide Fuel MarketIf you build the supply the demand will come!

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Energy Efficiency is Apolitical

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