the forecast chief economist’s commentary and find out why

95
February 11, 2005 Welcome to the 4th Quarter, 2004 edition of the MRIS Quarterly Economic and Market Watch Report. What a year! Housing sales reached another record high; nearly 6.7 million existing home sales were registered nationally, an increase of 9.4%. There’s still no bubble in sight, although NAR predicts that rising mortgage rates will have an effect in 2005. Will double-digit appreciation gains continue for the MRIS region in 2005-2006? NAR Senior Research Forecaster Lawrence Yun makes a prediction in The Forecast. NAR Chief Economist David Lereah says that “Real estate markets have turned conventional wisdom on its head…job gains are sluggish, the U.S. dollar is falling, but the housing sector is still healthy.” Take a look at his Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why this unlikely formula is working and whether it’s likely to fare as well in 2005. In his Trends report, NAR Economist Ken Fears says it’s time for REALTORS® to hone in on areas of strong and soft demand. Ken cautions that “…a bulge in supply at the lower price ranges could cause some price softening in this area.” The Economic Monitor examines the likely impact that fuel and home heating costs will have on the housing market in 2005. MRIS brokers and agents are welcome to quote text or recreate charts from this report for their internal use and to include selected elements in their respective marketing efforts. We ask only that you provide MRIS and NAR with the appropriate credit in the body of the new document or web page. Best regards, David Charron President/CEO www.mris.com METROPOLITAN REGIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC. 9420 Key West Avenue, Suite 200 T 301.838.7100 Rockville, Maryland 20850-3334 F 301.838.7171

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Page 1: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

February 11, 2005

Welcome to the 4th Quarter, 2004 edition of the MRIS Quarterly Economic and Market Watch Report.What a year! Housing sales reached another record high; nearly 6.7 million existing home sales wereregistered nationally, an increase of 9.4%. There’s still no bubble in sight, although NAR predicts thatrising mortgage rates will have an effect in 2005.

Will double-digit appreciation gains continue for the MRIS region in 2005-2006? NAR Senior ResearchForecaster Lawrence Yun makes a prediction in The Forecast.

NAR Chief Economist David Lereah says that “Real estate markets have turned conventional wisdom onits head…job gains are sluggish, the U.S. dollar is falling, but the housing sector is still healthy.” Take alook at his Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why this unlikely formula is working andwhether it’s likely to fare as well in 2005.

In his Trends report, NAR Economist Ken Fears says it’s time for REALTORS® to hone in on areas ofstrong and soft demand. Ken cautions that “…a bulge in supply at the lower price ranges could cause someprice softening in this area.”

The Economic Monitor examines the likely impact that fuel and home heating costs will have on thehousing market in 2005.

MRIS brokers and agents are welcome to quote text or recreate charts from this report for their internal useand to include selected elements in their respective marketing efforts. We ask only that you provide MRISand NAR with the appropriate credit in the body of the new document or web page.

Best regards,

David CharronPresident/CEO

www.mris.com METROPOLITAN REGIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC.

9420 Key West Avenue, Suite 200 T 301.838.7100Rockville, Maryland 20850-3334 F 301.838.7171

Page 2: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Economic and Market Watch Report

4th Quarter, 2004

*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level

© 2005 MRIS, Inc. and NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 3: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

MRIS, Inc. Economic and Market Watch ReportMRIS, owned by 25 REALTOR® Shareholder Boards/Associations, is one of the largest real estateinformation services in the nation with over 48,000 licensed agents, brokers and appraisers. Our customershave access to more than 34,000 active listings and we have an archive of over 768,000 comparable and soldproperties. In excess of 3,830,000 public records containing tax information about properties in our area areavailable. Over 169,000 properties, (Residential, Lot/Land, Commercial , Multi-Family) representing $62Billion in sales volume, have been sold through MRIS in 2004.MRIS is pleased to introduce the Economic and Market Watch Report designed to help real estatepractitioners identify current and future economic and real estate trends that affect our industry.

Washington DCWashington DC……………….....……………………………......…..….6

MarylandAllegany County………………………......……...………..….............…8Ann Arundel County……………………………...………….............…10Baltimore City……………………...……………………….......….......12Baltimore County………………….…………………………............…14Calvert County…………………........…………………………............16Caroline County………………………………………...….…..….........18Carroll County…………………………..……………………..….....….19Cecil County…………………..........………………………….........….21Charles County……………………...……………………….…............23Dorchester County…………………………...……..………....….........25Frederick County…………………………….......................................27Garrett County……………………………...........................................29Harford County……………………........………...……….............…...30Howard County…………………...…...………………………..........…32Kent County..........…………....………………………………….......…34Montgomery County…………………...........…………………........…35Prince George’s County………………………...….…...……..…….....37Queen Anne’s County……………………...………………….........….39St. Mary’s County…………………….....….....……………….............40Talbot County……………........……………...……..…………….........42Washington County………………………………………………......…44

PennsylvaniaFranklin County…………….......………………...………….........…...46Fulton County……………………………............................................48

IndexTrends……………………………………………………….....…………..............................1Chief Economist’s Commentary*……....................…………..................…….............2Local Forecast………………………………………………….....……...........................3Economic Monitor*………………………………………….....…….....................….....5

Page 4: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

*Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights, ©2005 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Usedwith permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500

VirginiaAlexandria City….......……………........………...…………….....……49Arlington County………………………….……………….…..........….50Caroline County……………..........…………………………...........….51Charlottesville City…….....……….......……………………...........….52Clarke County……………………....………………………….............53Culpeper County…………...………………...……..…………….........54Fairfax City……….....……………………...........................................55Fairfax County…....………………………….......................................56Falls Church City……………....…........………...………….........……58Fauquier County…………………...…...………………………......…..59Frederick County..........…………....……………..……………........…61Fredericksburg City…………....…........………...………............……62King George County….............…………..………………..…........….63Loudoun County……………....……………...…..……………….........64Madison County.....…………..…………………………………........…66Manassas City…………....…........………...……….....................……67Manassas Park City…………….....................…….…..…..…….........68Orange County……….........…………....……………………..........….69Page County……….........……………..…….………………...…..........70Prince William County…………..........………………………..............71Rappahannock County…………..........……………………….............73Shenandoah County……....………...........…………….………............74Spotsylvania County.....…………..………….………………..…..........75Stafford County…......................…………………..………..….............76Warren County……….........…………....…………………............…...77Westmoreland County……….........….…….....…………….....…........78Winchester City …………….................…….…...........…....…….......79

West VirginaBerkeley County……………………………………………...…...........80Grant County……………….........……………………………...….......81Hampshire County……………....…..,.....…..…..……………...….......82Hardy County………….........................……………………................84Jefferson County.....…………..…….…………..……………..….........85Mineral County……....………..................……….…………...............86Others…...................................……………..……….....….............….97

Page 5: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

1

Trends Back to the Basics: Supply and DemandBy Ken Fears, Economist

The year 2004 was a historic one for the housing industry. Nearly 6.7 million existing home sales wereregistered nationally, an increase of 9.4%. Amazingly, 2004’s record came on the heels of a record 6.1 millionhome sales in 2003. While sales shot up, mortgage rates did not. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged5.8% in 2004, unchanged from 2003. The strong buying was likely driven by buyers who anticipated anincrease in rates and wanted to get in on the improved affordability while it lasted. In deed, indicators of thegeneral price level are beginning to show mild increases and the Fed is hinting that it could take a moreaggressive stance to hamper any inflation by raising the Federal funds rate. Mortgage rates are likely to rise asa result. The rates are forecast to rise to 6.2% by the National Association of Realtors .

Price

Number of Homes Sold in 2004 Q4

Number of homes for sale on 12/31/04

Months Supply

<$100K 2,577 2,880 3.4 $100K-$199K 8,238 4,979 1.8 $200K-$299K 12,228 6,060 1.5 $300K-$399K 8,986 5,072 1.7 $400K> 12,188 11,247 2.8

With such strong sales in recent months and mortgage rates likely to creep upward over the coming years,Realtors must begin to hone in on areas of strong and soft demand, in order to maximize their profits. To thisend, the table above presents the homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2004; these numbers can be viewed asrecent demand in the area covered by MRIS. In addition, numbers are given for the stock of homes that werestill on the market as of December 31st 2004. These figures measure the stock or supply of homes. Bycomparing the two, one can see that,

• The largest number of homes sold, are sold in the middle price ranges.

• The supply of homes is largest in the upper price ranges.

• The number of months supply, the number of months it would take to exhaust the given inventory, waslowest in the middle price ranges.

The low months-supply indicates that demand is strongest relative supply in the middle price ranges, whilesupply is outpacing demand at the lower price ranges. Though it is common to have a higher months supply atthe upper end, the bulge in supply at the lower price ranges could cause some price softening in this area. Butany price concessions would be mild as long as mortgage rates remain low. Consequently, one can expect afaster turnover at the middle price ranges and it may require price concessions in the lower price ranges.

Overall, 2005 looks to be another strong year for home sales. The ebb and flow of demand (along with priceconcessions and increases) will work any bulges out of the supply chain. Arming yourself with the knowledgeof where these bulges are today and how to move through them will help you maximize your business throughthis period.

Page 6: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Chief Economist’s Commentary

2

Jobs, Dollars, and Fannie, Oh MyBy David Lereah. Chief Economist

Real estate markets have turned conventional economic wisdom on its head. Job gains are sluggish, the U.S. dollar is falling invalue and the largest housing company in the world—Fannie Mae—has been hit by scandal. But REALTORS, lenders andhomebuyers could not be happier. The housing sector is still healthy, and its future prospects are still bright.

Astonishingly, non-farm payroll gains have risen a scant 0.9 percent since the economy began expanding three years ago. Thisgrowth in jobs pales compared with the three-year periods after the last two recessions. Non-farm payrolls posted 4.2 percentgrowth during the 1991-1994 recovery and a hefty 10.9 percent during the 1982-1985 recovery. The notion that you need ahealthy job market to sustain a healthy housing market no longer applies today. What’s going on here?

One reason why housing is thriving during a period of weak job creation is because the link between job growth and housingactivity is no longer as strong as it once was. Productivity gains and global competition have diluted the role of domestic jobgains in influencing economic activity. Today’s 5.4 percent unemployment rate is virtually the same as it was a decade ago. Inrecent years, the economy has been growing at a three to four percent pace, despite the sluggish performance of the domesticjob market. Relating this to the housing market is not difficult. What is important is that households possess the financialwherewithal and confidence to purchase homes; and as long as economy is growing at a healthy pace, the housing sector willcontinue to perform at acceptable, and even better-than-usual levels.

Housing markets also benefit from a less than robust job market because sluggish job growth keeps economic growth sustain-able and so inflation is held at bay. As a consequence, the Federal Reserve can follow a “measured” approach to raising interestrates because both economic growth and inflation are not off to the races. Simply stated, modest gains in jobs translate into amore favorable interest-rate environment for housing activity.

As for a weak dollar, a different story may unfold for the housing markets. The dollar has lost about five percent of its valueagainst the euro this year, while losing about three percent against the Japanese yen. This makes the price of imported goodsand services more expensive. If this weakness of the U.S. dollar persists throughout 2005, there will be upward pressure oninflation, raising eyebrows at our nation’s central bank. There is also the possibility that China will revalue its currency, the yuan,sometime next year. This will add fuel to current inflationary pressures. All of this could force the Fed to act more aggressivelynext year, raising interest rates at a pace, not compatible with the desires of housing market participants.

At present, the dollar’s slide against other major currencies has not meaningfully influenced interest-rate levels. Thirty-yearmortgage rates are still hovering below six percent. And recent inflation numbers (the November consumer price index wasonly 0.2 percent) continue to demonstrate that inflationary pressures remain relatively tranquil. However, fingers and toes willbe crossed, hoping the dollar’s slide will soon subside.

If sluggish jobs and a falling dollar have not slowed the housing sector, how about a scandal at the nation’s largest housingcompany? Fannie Mae has been hit with an accounting scandal of great magnitude (i.e., billions of dollars of restated earningsand capital depletion). Two of their top senior executives have stepped down, yet the financial markets took these events instride – even a yawn. It is business as usual in the housing industry. Both existing and new home sales activity continues tohover near peak levels, while mortgage rates remain below six percent.

Looking towards next year, expect more of the same—the Bush Administration just revised its projections for job growth in2005 downward, calling for slower job gains despite forecasting solid economic growth. This is the best of both worlds forhousing activity. It is my view that by the end of 2005, the Fannie Mae fallout will be a distant memory. The economy will humalong at a four-percent growth pace. Job gains will be strong, but modest. The dollar will have regained some of its lost strength,and the Fed will have raised interest rates in a measured, modest manner throughout the year, leaving 30-year mortgage rateswell below seven percent. This is the type of backdrop that will provide for a healthy operating environment for all housingparticipants.

Page 7: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

The ForecastBy Lawrence Yun, Senior Research Forecaster

Forecast

3

In January, many major media outlets give you a year-end review and a “what’s ahead for the next year” wrap-up. So, for thenew year, here is NAR’s top ten “predictions” for the U.S. economy and housing markets.

1. Home prices will rise twice as fast as the overall consumer price index in 2005. Any talk of a housing price bubbleand home price deflation should be dismissed. Home prices are firmly grounded in the fundamentals of demandoutstripping supply. Both the average number of months a newly constructed home sits on the market and the monthssupply of existing homes are at historic lows. Mortgage rates would have to surpass 9 percent before home pricesflatten out.

2. Both consumers and governments will be more disciplined. The all-important consumer spending will advance nicely– growing by 3.8% in 2005 and 3.4% in 2006. But these increases will be less than the income growth for the first timesince 2000. That bodes well for a higher savings rate. Government spending at all levels is set to grow under 2% for thefirst time since 1998. The federal budget deficit will shrink to $310 billion in 2005 from $415 billion in 2004.

3. Oil prices will sink below $40 per barrel. A lot of speculation had pushed the oil price alarmingly high in late 2004. Butwe should have known that it would be temporary. Oil companies can still turn a decent profit if the price is at $25 perbarrel. Anything above that induces more production to bring the price back in line.

4. The trade deficit will begin to shrink. While the U.S. will not by any means experience a trade surplus, the size of thetrade deficit will first stabilize in the early part of 2005 and then start to decline in the latter part of the year. Lower oilprices and the weaker dollar lessen import demand. U.S. manufacturers will see an export boom.

5. Over the next 24 months, 4.5 million net new jobs will be added to the economy. Outsourcing of jobs will continue asbefore. But with so many new job openings don’t expect to hear too many complaints. Look at the 1980s and 1990swhen we heard that giant “sucking sound” led by textile companies moving south of the border. Even then, theeconomy added 38.5 million net new jobs – including hamburger flipping jobs at McDonalds (et al.) and at companiesthat did not exist prior to those decades – such as Microsoft and Amgen (biotech company).

6. The fastest employment growth will be in South Florida. Look out Sunshine State. Naples, Ft. Myers, Sarasota, WestPalm Beach, Ft. Pierce and Port St. Lucie all look to benefit as well-to-do Yankee retirees march into town. These folkswill need plenty of service workers to pamper them. There will be a plenty of shopping money left after trading in their$800,000 home up north for a new and larger $300,000 air-conditioned home in South Florida.

7. Effective mortgage rates will stay well under 7 percent. Though the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will rise only to 6.7%by the end of 2005, more and more homebuyers will take advantage of even lower rates offered through hybridadjustable rate mortgages. Most American homeowners typically move every 7 to 10 years. And they are beginningto understand 7-year fixed ARMS are just as fixed for the first seven years as 30-year mortgages, but at a lower interestrate.

8. Today’s lofty home price will be look unimaginably cheap. In 1975, a typical home could be purchased for $35,300.NAR’s most recent figures report a median sales price (for an existing single-family home) of $188,200. Fast forward 30years down the road: a typical home will be around $800,000 to $900,000. (So what was that about a housing bubble???)

9. Home sales in the MRIS region will continue to rise in 2005 and 2006. Though home sales will decline a bit nationally,a favorable migration trend, particularly into northern Virginia, will bump up home sales. Healthy job creation alsohelps in light of a higher interest rate environment. No repeat of a double digit gains of the past two years, but a gainnonetheless.

10. Home prices in the MRIS region will continue to rise in 2005 and 2006. Fundamentals suggest absolutely no bubblein the local market. The rise in home price of near 7 percent in 2005 will mean about $20,000 housing wealth gain for atypical local homeowner in 2005.

Page 8: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Forecast

4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2003 2004 2005 2006U.S. EconomyAnnual Growth RateReal GDP 4.5 3.3 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 4.4 4.0 3.8Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 -0.3 1.0 1.8 1.8Consumer Prices 3.6 4.7 1.9 3.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.3Real Disposable Income 2.4 2.8 1.9 2.9 5.0 4.8 3.8 3.9 5.1 4.2 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.3Consumer Confidence 92 96 100 96 104 105 106 106 107 107 80 96 105 107

PercentUnemployment Rate 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 6.0 5.5 5.2 5.0

Interest Rates, PercentFed Funds Rate 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 1.1 1.3 2.9 3.93-Month T-Bill Rate 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 1.0 1.4 2.9 3.8Prime Rate 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 4.1 4.3 5.9 6.9Discount Rate 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.5 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.6Corporate Aaa Bond Yield 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.530-Year Government Bond 5.0 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.1

Mortgage Rates, percent30-Year Fixed Rate 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 5.8 5.8 6.2 7.01-Year Adjustable 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 3.8 3.9 4.9 5.8

National Housing IndicatorsThousandsExisting Single-Family Sales 6,203 6,787 6,677 6,858 6,558 6,508 6,469 6,389 6,419 6,487 6,100 6,644 6,481 6,595New Single-Family Sales 1,197 1,206 1,160 1,195 1,124 1,128 1,107 1,094 1,078 1,074 1,086 1,189 1,113 1,066Housing Starts 1,943 1,920 1,969 1,931 1,898 1,872 1,881 1,821 1,798 1,783 1,848 1,941 1,868 1,774Single-Family Units 1,570 1,596 1,632 1,575 1,556 1,516 1,521 1,457 1,429 1,406 1,499 1,593 1,513 1,393Multifamily Units 373 323 338 356 342 356 360 364 369 377 349 348 355 381Residential Construction* 543 564 566 559 557 552 550 546 539 535 560 558 551 533

Percent Change -- Year AgoExisting Single-Family Sales 6.6 16.0 4.0 8.9 5.7 -4.1 -3.1 -6.8 -2.1 -0.3 9.6 8.9 -2.5 1.8New Single-Family Sales 22.1 9.1 0.3 7.1 -6.1 -6.4 -4.6 -8.5 -4.1 -4.8 11.6 9.5 -6.4 -4.2Housing Starts 11.2 10.0 4.6 -5.1 -2.3 -2.5 -4.5 -5.7 -5.3 -4.8 8.4 5.0 -3.8 -5.0Single-Family Units 10.7 12.4 7.2 -5.0 -0.9 -5.0 -6.8 -7.5 -8.2 -7.3 10.3 6.3 -5.0 -7.9Multifamily Units 13.5 -0.4 -6.5 -5.6 -8.2 10.0 6.5 2.2 7.7 5.9 0.9 -0.3 2.0 7.3Residential Construction 11.3 13.2 8.0 4.4 2.7 -2.0 -2.8 -2.3 -3.2 -3.2 8.8 9.1 -1.3 -3.3

National Home PricesThousands of DollarsExisting Home Prices 170.8 183.5 188.2 186.3 183.9 193.1 198.2 193.2 192.0 200.6 170.0 183.1 192.8 200.9New Home Prices 212.9 216.6 213.4 218.4 224.0 229.2 225.9 229.6 233.4 235.9 195.0 215.3 227.2 236.6

Percent Change -- Year AgoExisting Home Prices 6.0 8.8 7.5 8.2 7.7 5.2 5.3 3.7 4.4 3.9 7.5 7.7 5.3 4.2New Home Prices 15.3 13.4 11.8 9.7 5.2 5.8 5.9 5.1 4.2 2.9 3.9 10.4 5.5 4.1

Local RegionJobs (in thousands) 2840.6 2897.5 2907.9 2937.2 2911.6 2964.1 2977.7 3013.6 2990.2 3047.1 2825.0 2895.8 2966.8 3048.3Home Sales 31566 54497 56471 48850 32766 55314 55567 48508 33355 56863 157633 191384 192155 199073Home Prices (in thousand $) 287.5 295.0 302.0 313.4 310.6 314.5 320.1 331.9 328.6 333.3 274.6 300.5 319.8 338.3

Percent Change -- Year AgoJobs 2.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8%Home Sales 10.0% 30.5% 20.0% 21.7% 3.8% 1.5% -1.6% -0.7% 1.8% 2.8% 12.5% 21.4% 0.4% 3.6%Home Prices 16.6% 8.9% 5.5% 10.1% 8.0% 6.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 12.7% 9.5% 6.4% 5.8%

Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.* Billion dollarsSource: Forecast produced using Macroeconomic Advisers quarterly model of the U.S. economy.Assumptions and simulations by Dr. David Lereah and Dr. Lawrence Yun.

U.S. Economic Outlook: January 2005

2005 20062004

Page 9: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Real Estate Outlook

Monthly Indicator Recent

Statistics

Likely Direction Over the Next

Six Months Forecast

Notes: All rates are seasonally adjusted. Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as month-to-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mortgage Bankers Association, and Freddie Mac.

Economic Monitor

This table reflects data available throughJanuary 7, 2004.

Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.75% in December,rising only slightly from November’s 5.73% level. One-year adjustable ratesrose to 4.18% from 4.15% in November. Since 1971, there have been onlyfour months when mortgage interest rates were lower.

Mindful of the Fedhikes throughout2005.

Existing Home Sales hit a new high in November of 6.94 million seasonallyadjusted annualized units, beating the previous record of 6.92 million set inJune of 2004. The inventory of homes for sale was unchanged at 4.3 monthssupply. 2004 will be a record setting year for resales.

Resales to take aslight breather.

New Home Sales declined 12% in November, posting 1.125 million units(seasonally adjusted annualized rate)-the lowest figure in five months. Thegoodnews: October’s sales figure was revised up by more than 50,000. Theinventory of new homes for sale rose significantly at 4.5 months supply.

Plentiful choice ofaffordable newhomes in theMidwest.

Housing Starts tumbled sharply in November to 1.77 million annualizedunits - the lowest level of new construction activity in more than 18 months.Still, the year-to-date figure for starts is strong and on pace to easily clip lastyear’s mark of 1.85 million total starts.

Tapering off anotch but athistoric highs.

Employment Growth Payroll employment advanced by 157,000 inDecember, somewhatslower than expected. The fastes job growth occurredin the service sectors. Education and health services added 47,000 jobs.

2.2 million in thepast 12 months,even more in the next 12.

Purchase Applications The Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchaseapplications index was 470.4 in December. While this is a slight decreaseoff November’s index, financing activity is still in healthy territory, withmortgage rates low and homebuying attractive.

Following sales.

Housing Affordability The Housing Affordability Index dipped inNovember to 131.7. An increase in the median sales price of homes wasprimarily responsible. Still, the index shows that the typical family with themedian family income can afford to purchase a median priced home.

Income growthlagging behindhome price growth.

Inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in November. Thecore index (excluding food and energy) also increased 0.2%. Prices roseevenly across the board in November. Core prices are up 2.2% over thelast 12 months.

Not yet a concern,but need to bewatchful.

5

Oct 5.72Nov 5.73Dec 5.75

Sep 6,760Oct 6,760Niv 6,940

Sep 1,227Oct 1,278Nov 1,771

Sep 1,905Oct 2,039Nov 1,771

Oct 312Nov 137Dec 157

Oct 458.8Nov 471.7Dec 470.4

Sep 132.7Oct 132.2Nov 131.7

Sep 0.2Oct 0.6Nov 0.2

The latest inflation report has the usual good news/bad news. Coreprices remained stable while the headline number moderated fromlast month, but not as much as expected. Fuel prices remained higherthan expected. In fact, fuel prices eased in November, but the de-cline in prices was not passed on to consumers by as much as wasexpected. Rising heating costs offset some of the moderation in gaso-line prices. Fuel prices have since fallen sharply in early Decemberwhile temperatures remained warm, but will turn around again aswinter demand for heating oil rises and problems in Iraq escalate aselections there near. The good news? The Fed will maintain its policyof moderate rate increases as the core CPI ticks upward, but seriousinflation is not a worry as of yet. The CPI will continue to grow at aprojected average monthly rate of 0.2% for the next three months.

By Wannasiri Chompoopet and Hristina ToshkovaThis table reflects data available throughJanuary 7, 2005.

Page 10: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, DC

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 1,707 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 7.9% in the third quarter to 8.6% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Washington. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$453,600 $482,000Average Price

2,342 2,176# Homes on the Market *

2,140 2,400# Homes Sold **

37 17# New Homes Built ***

23 27Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20001 $410,800 14.24% 175 34.62% 100.1%2820002 $391,000 27.53% 275 -4.51% 101.3%2820003 $530,800 13.08% 107 -0.93% 100.7%3020004 $570,400 14.15% 5 -66.67% 99.3%2020005 $403,700 6.74% 80 8.11% 101.8%1820006 $827,100 380.59% 3 -40.00% 99.5%920007 $896,700 33.06% 173 -0.57% 97.8%2320008 $674,000 5.25% 137 -8.05% 100.9%2520009 $446,000 6.24% 350 8.02% 102.1%2020010 $451,500 48.08% 97 -15.65% 101.6%2620011 $371,600 21.28% 186 7.51% 100.5%29

6

Page 11: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, DC

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20012 $505,400 11.99% 38 26.67% 99.4%2020015 $803,600 27.03% 58 0.00% 102.1%2620016 $804,200 38.18% 193 16.27% 99.9%2420017 $282,400 16.12% 49 -5.77% 99.4%2720018 $284,100 26.83% 42 -23.64% 98.5%2620019 $174,100 37.85% 124 18.10% 101.9%5320020 $177,400 10.60% 91 1.11% 100.3%3420024 $305,500 52.75% 48 -18.64% 98.9%2820032 $158,400 9.47% 35 16.67% 102.5%5420036 $358,900 20.40% 60 -6.25% 101.0%2020037 $567,700 22.75% 66 15.79% 100.1%4920307 $313,300 - 3 - 95.9%9920374 $132,500 - 1 - 98.1%17720393 $529,900 - 1 - 100.0%720576 $334,000 - 1 - 98.5%23

OTHER $417,500 45.37% 2 -77.78% 95.4%11

7

Page 12: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ALLEGANY COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 549 jobs were added to the payrolls of Allegany County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.2% during the third quarter to 5.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$95,400 $90,700Average Price

300 305# Homes on the Market *

163 150# Homes Sold **

18 19# New Homes Built ***

84 94Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21502 $90,500 12.00% 107 -0.93% 95.4%8721521 $72,000 -40.00% 1 0.00% 96.1%721524 $142,000 79.07% 1 0.00% 97.9%3021528 $37,000 - 1 - 75.5%20121529 $155,000 138.46% 1 0.00% 96.9%6921530 $99,300 - 3 - 100.4%13021532 $106,400 43.78% 21 -30.00% 95.1%13321539 $60,000 -20.00% 4 100.00% 96.0%6121543 $74,000 - 1 - 98.7%11121545 $55,200 - 3 - 95.1%8721555 $85,000 -34.62% 2 100.00% 97.2%196

8

Page 13: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ALLEGANY COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21557 $72,500 -21.45% 4 -42.86% 91.7%6121562 $43,000 -26.62% 1 -66.67% 91.7%63

9

Page 14: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Anne Arundel County saw 1,330 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.5% during the third quarter to 3.2% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$335,100 $353,700Average Price

2,198 1,956# Homes on the Market *

2,597 2,285# Homes Sold **

480 272# New Homes Built ***

27 34Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20711 $459,500 -2.87% 11 10.00% 97.6%9720724 $289,800 21.31% 101 38.36% 100.1%1720733 $364,900 32.59% 17 21.43% 98.5%4420751 $302,800 22.54% 15 200.00% 97.8%3820758 $700,000 90.48% 1 -50.00% 88.1%9520764 $279,800 1.16% 39 77.27% 98.4%4320776 $824,800 112.91% 10 42.86% 98.6%8020778 $356,200 23.94% 4 -20.00% 97.4%7220779 $581,900 29.37% 7 133.33% 98.8%7721012 $386,500 18.05% 91 -6.19% 98.3%4621032 $570,300 35.59% 26 -13.33% 95.0%59

10

Page 15: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21035 $858,800 15.49% 17 0.00% 100.0%4421037 $468,900 34.47% 95 -9.52% 97.1%4521054 $407,400 8.64% 51 64.52% 99.3%2821056 $2,125,000 21.43% 2 100.00% 96.6%12021060 $232,100 41.70% 143 7.52% 99.4%3221061 $213,700 23.10% 158 -12.22% 99.8%2021076 $326,600 25.71% 29 7.41% 100.2%2021077 $282,500 -16.42% 2 100.00% 99.1%1421090 $276,000 21.05% 28 -17.65% 98.1%5121108 $427,400 23.17% 64 -1.54% 98.9%2921113 $285,200 17.32% 212 26.95% 99.7%2221114 $318,400 22.98% 137 -0.72% 99.4%1821122 $299,100 17.25% 282 20.00% 99.1%3821140 $334,100 -3.75% 13 18.18% 98.3%5121144 $303,600 25.30% 150 21.95% 100.0%2821146 $522,200 25.05% 95 20.25% 97.5%4521226 $244,300 14.48% 37 12.12% 99.6%4421401 $484,000 24.04% 235 -2.08% 96.6%4221402 $1,145,000 - 1 - 95.8%721403 $499,700 22.57% 129 -3.73% 97.3%44

OTHER $184,200 23.46% 83 20.29% 98.8%28

11

Page 16: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

BALTIMORE CITY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Baltimore City saw 1,374 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 8.5% during the third quarter to 8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$161,100 $143,600Average Price

3,000 3,291# Homes on the Market *

2,366 2,273# Homes Sold **

127 170# New Homes Built ***

43 49Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21201 $164,600 -12.07% 12 0.00% 96.5%2021202 $177,300 15.66% 31 10.71% 98.3%2921203 $97,000 - 1 - 100.0%1321205 $50,500 40.28% 36 227.27% 101.0%6421206 $106,800 22.48% 177 12.03% 99.0%5121209 $227,900 27.11% 30 20.00% 99.5%5621210 $332,600 10.98% 51 2.00% 99.1%4221211 $151,600 24.77% 93 24.00% 98.9%2021212 $175,000 -9.98% 94 77.36% 99.7%3521213 $61,900 15.70% 117 7.34% 99.0%8021214 $136,700 33.63% 115 7.48% 99.9%41

12

Page 17: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

BALTIMORE CITY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21215 $91,500 19.92% 122 16.19% 99.0%4521216 $59,100 5.72% 74 27.59% 98.4%7321217 $173,800 -17.24% 63 40.00% 98.4%7821218 $185,500 17.11% 152 18.75% 99.2%5021223 $60,400 19.60% 76 137.50% 97.8%5921224 $172,100 22.84% 306 21.43% 98.2%3921225 $70,300 7.66% 65 242.11% 100.9%8221229 $91,800 20.31% 143 40.20% 99.8%6021230 $208,500 17.33% 239 17.73% 98.1%4021231 $216,100 24.05% 92 5.75% 97.1%6021239 $100,200 26.68% 76 16.92% 101.7%36

OTHER $127,400 39.39% 108 63.64% 100.2%40

13

Page 18: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

BALTIMORE COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Baltimore County saw 2,052 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4.2% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$243,100 $242,100Average Price

2,551 2,361# Homes on the Market *

3,182 2,918# Homes Sold **

267 380# New Homes Built ***

23 28Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21013 $498,500 19.63% 7 16.67% 101.0%3221023 $982,500 - 1 - 94.0%2121030 $360,300 -4.76% 91 26.39% 98.3%2121053 $454,600 40.74% 7 75.00% 98.3%8121057 $471,200 -3.36% 8 -27.27% 97.6%5221071 $166,000 - 1 - 100.0%521082 $757,500 116.43% 2 100.00% 97.1%4421087 $497,300 102.81% 18 50.00% 96.4%6521093 $382,900 13.52% 134 14.53% 98.2%3221111 $529,100 9.16% 12 -20.00% 98.8%3021117 $280,000 31.64% 269 8.47% 98.6%27

14

Page 19: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

BALTIMORE COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21120 $422,200 1.05% 18 -10.00% 96.6%5021128 $325,300 10.38% 40 -18.37% 99.1%2821131 $653,800 30.16% 17 -29.17% 98.4%5721133 $205,400 22.41% 135 21.62% 100.7%2321136 $238,600 11.08% 168 28.24% 98.7%2721152 $349,300 20.03% 25 47.06% 99.8%2621153 $2,782,500 536.73% 2 0.00% 95.1%4621155 $326,600 0.62% 4 -50.00% 99.9%221156 $150,000 -40.12% 1 -50.00% 100.0%821162 $359,100 35.66% 8 166.67% 102.6%4321204 $422,400 19.90% 31 -18.42% 98.7%2921207 $151,500 10.26% 134 13.56% 100.1%3121208 $267,700 22.91% 124 8.77% 98.0%3121219 $205,000 14.46% 26 136.36% 96.3%2621220 $194,100 47.94% 135 35.00% 99.2%3221221 $164,100 23.94% 111 21.98% 98.8%2621222 $117,700 22.86% 178 -5.82% 98.5%2921227 $177,100 33.86% 111 9.90% 100.1%2721228 $260,900 29.41% 178 0.56% 99.1%2621234 $186,600 23.17% 213 0.95% 99.6%2721236 $203,800 19.95% 152 8.57% 99.5%2021237 $200,500 23.84% 112 5.66% 100.1%2921244 $178,400 22.36% 127 17.59% 100.2%2721286 $303,800 25.02% 55 3.77% 99.4%22

OTHER $245,100 35.49% 263 7.35% 99.2%32

15

Page 20: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CALVERT COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 18 jobs were added to the payrolls of Calvert County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.1% during the third quarter to 2.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$307,400 $329,300Average Price

511 525# Homes on the Market *

459 371# Homes Sold **

103 73# New Homes Built ***

35 47Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20615 $488,900 50.90% 1 -50.00% 102.9%320629 $331,300 -26.78% 4 100.00% 99.5%520639 $419,100 19.44% 26 -46.94% 99.0%6020657 $244,300 20.88% 132 17.86% 99.7%4220676 $408,800 58.20% 11 -8.33% 98.0%10020678 $331,800 23.30% 36 20.00% 98.2%4820685 $330,800 20.60% 34 41.67% 97.6%5320688 $309,300 -23.44% 13 116.67% 99.0%9520689 $453,800 14.60% 5 0.00% 99.1%10420714 $256,800 30.03% 26 73.33% 97.4%2420732 $383,600 58.12% 38 11.76% 98.9%31

16

Page 21: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CALVERT COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20736 $445,100 21.08% 25 -19.35% 99.4%3920754 $543,000 28.55% 20 -9.09% 99.6%75

17

Page 22: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CAROLINE COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 317 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 3.9% in the third quarter to 4.1% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Caroline County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$201,700 $210,600Average Price

199 227# Homes on the Market *

131 100# Homes Sold **

52 23# New Homes Built ***

105 68Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21629 $190,400 7.88% 29 -27.50% 96.9%6021632 $138,400 -1.07% 15 -31.82% 98.7%8021636 $85,800 - 3 - 92.0%1421639 $204,100 31.85% 16 33.33% 98.2%4521640 $294,500 71.52% 3 0.00% 93.8%13321641 $126,000 -31.07% 1 -50.00% 97.0%13621649 $141,900 59.98% 4 33.33% 93.9%7121655 $199,900 22.26% 17 30.77% 97.5%8121660 $413,800 165.43% 12 -7.69% 97.1%78

18

Page 23: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CARROLL COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Carroll County saw 428 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3% during the third quarter to 2.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$310,600 $320,100Average Price

595 553# Homes on the Market *

718 581# Homes Sold **

208 156# New Homes Built ***

29 38Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21048 $418,100 18.04% 28 -20.00% 96.7%4821074 $255,700 24.49% 60 -18.92% 98.7%3021102 $306,400 10.61% 51 30.77% 99.1%6221104 $451,500 21.11% 6 50.00% 100.0%1521157 $306,800 23.46% 114 1.79% 98.8%3721158 $274,500 15.63% 79 5.33% 99.0%4021757 $191,200 4.37% 4 0.00% 98.8%5621776 $311,000 6.32% 20 11.11% 100.5%3421784 $357,100 16.43% 121 0.83% 99.7%2821787 $262,900 35.80% 39 -2.50% 98.6%4821791 $215,300 24.81% 3 -40.00% 96.4%57

19

Page 24: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CARROLL COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)OTHER $407,200 23.84% 56 12.00% 98.3%44

20

Page 25: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CECIL COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Cecil County saw 106 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.7% during the third quarter to 5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$230,200 $281,600Average Price

510 543# Homes on the Market *

398 356# Homes Sold **

181 102# New Homes Built ***

42 52Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21901 $239,000 8.59% 62 12.73% 99.0%4421903 $217,200 24.76% 25 47.06% 98.6%3321904 $261,100 35.21% 32 10.34% 96.6%7221911 $233,300 16.30% 34 25.93% 98.2%4121912 $334,600 93.97% 4 0.00% 98.3%7321913 $80,000 -23.81% 1 0.00% 89.0%8321914 $178,000 -38.62% 4 0.00% 92.0%6221915 $305,200 28.45% 8 -20.00% 98.4%14121916 $700,000 - 1 - 100.0%19021917 $316,700 96.34% 7 16.67% 98.3%3421918 $296,300 58.62% 10 -16.67% 96.5%37

21

Page 26: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CECIL COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21919 $1,302,300 440.15% 13 -45.83% 93.2%12021920 $160,000 - 1 - 94.2%2821921 $234,800 23.77% 154 6.21% 98.2%48

22

Page 27: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CHARLES COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 29 jobs were added to the payrolls of Charles County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.1% during the third quarter to 2.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$278,900 $292,000Average Price

558 494# Homes on the Market *

869 715# Homes Sold **

311 104# New Homes Built ***

21 27Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20601 $271,600 23.29% 143 10.00% 100.1%2420602 $225,700 28.24% 135 3.05% 100.2%2520603 $290,900 24.00% 160 17.65% 99.8%1820604 $276,000 16.46% 2 0.00% 100.4%320611 $380,000 24.63% 1 -66.67% 101.4%520616 $259,300 30.63% 40 25.00% 100.4%2820617 $399,900 - 1 - 100.0%520625 $208,300 -14.98% 3 0.00% 100.0%1220632 $104,000 - 1 - 100.0%020637 $485,700 29.52% 21 16.67% 100.0%5420640 $261,400 69.63% 34 -5.56% 98.8%51

23

Page 28: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CHARLES COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20643 $345,700 - 2 - 106.0%24120645 $383,500 -25.02% 7 133.33% 101.6%7020646 $361,300 30.25% 67 31.37% 99.9%2220658 $296,600 78.57% 5 150.00% 100.3%4820662 $536,200 193.01% 3 0.00% 94.4%5120664 $213,500 54.93% 9 80.00% 100.8%5820675 $352,300 1.82% 2 -71.43% 100.1%1620677 $501,200 8.53% 6 20.00% 101.0%13220693 $367,500 735.23% 5 400.00% 96.2%1420695 $327,700 37.46% 55 27.91% 100.4%24

OTHER $404,600 23.20% 13 30.00% 98.6%44

24

Page 29: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 112 jobs were added to the payrolls of Dorchester County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.8% during the third quarter to 5.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$242,100 $198,200Average Price

298 262# Homes on the Market *

148 162# Homes Sold **

106 51# New Homes Built ***

80 75Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21613 $207,400 1.17% 92 76.92% 94.4%7121622 $162,000 37.29% 1 0.00% 95.9%2821626 $127,500 163.98% 2 0.00% 98.8%13421627 $90,000 - 1 - 80.0%6721631 $235,900 -37.06% 10 150.00% 97.8%7821634 $86,000 -76.60% 1 -50.00% 80.4%5621643 $143,300 16.50% 26 0.00% 97.1%7721648 $545,000 - 1 - 96.5%4021659 $119,000 2.32% 5 150.00% 95.4%10321664 $232,800 50.68% 4 33.33% 100.2%2421669 $122,500 -41.11% 2 100.00% 96.1%74

25

Page 30: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21672 $52,000 -30.67% 1 0.00% 92.0%4021677 $468,800 -7.17% 4 300.00% 91.7%10521869 $154,900 70.22% 5 -28.57% 98.3%186

OTHER $190,700 13.44% 7 133.33% 101.4%36

26

Page 31: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FREDERICK COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 47 jobs were added to the payrolls of Frederick County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.7% during the third quarter to 2.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$292,300 $300,700Average Price

886 800# Homes on the Market *

1,414 1,106# Homes Sold **

308 328# New Homes Built ***

21 26Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21701 $287,200 30.01% 250 4.17% 99.0%2121702 $260,700 16.23% 187 10.00% 99.9%1921703 $264,500 32.12% 197 -4.83% 99.7%1921704 $425,300 19.43% 57 26.67% 99.6%3521710 $248,500 -20.76% 3 -57.14% 96.9%1021716 $200,900 43.30% 36 38.46% 97.8%2321727 $295,300 33.92% 10 -16.67% 89.5%4321754 $553,400 -2.48% 9 -35.71% 98.8%5421755 $327,500 4.27% 12 -58.62% 98.1%3621758 $361,700 72.16% 7 -46.15% 98.9%621762 $239,500 57.57% 2 100.00% 94.9%92

27

Page 32: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FREDERICK COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21769 $403,000 31.91% 35 0.00% 97.9%4821770 $392,900 18.99% 18 -10.00% 99.0%4121771 $386,100 24.67% 46 -23.33% 100.4%3821773 $386,100 -2.82% 15 50.00% 99.3%5421774 $373,300 27.97% 67 -5.63% 100.1%2421777 $314,100 22.12% 17 325.00% 101.1%4621778 $280,000 -9.68% 1 -50.00% 96.6%2921780 $336,200 62.97% 6 0.00% 99.5%7821788 $254,500 13.11% 57 9.62% 98.9%2721793 $241,400 17.99% 55 -5.17% 99.3%2721798 $416,200 11.25% 8 0.00% 98.2%44

OTHER $397,700 6.00% 11 22.22% 98.4%35

28

Page 33: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

GARRETT COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Garrett County saw 214 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.8% during the third quarter to 4.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$321,600 $367,300Average Price

413 391# Homes on the Market *

145 157# Homes Sold **

110 59# New Homes Built ***

105 132Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21531 $149,600 152.28% 5 150.00% 96.3%6421536 $217,800 159.29% 6 -25.00% 89.1%12521541 $428,000 26.10% 41 5.13% 98.6%10921550 $352,800 -5.89% 78 27.87% 96.2%14421561 $396,600 4.51% 25 47.06% 95.0%159

OTHER $317,500 - 2 - 98.6%63

29

Page 34: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

HARFORD COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Harford County saw 588 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.2% during the third quarter to 3.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$241,400 $243,200Average Price

951 881# Homes on the Market *

1,132 1,000# Homes Sold **

461 125# New Homes Built ***

24 32Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21001 $176,900 17.93% 73 52.08% 97.8%5321009 $214,500 18.25% 191 15.76% 99.1%2421014 $270,700 25.15% 134 14.53% 98.8%2821015 $273,500 6.46% 106 8.16% 99.2%2221017 $175,300 24.77% 46 -14.81% 99.5%1921028 $389,100 37.64% 10 66.67% 98.0%5821034 $352,100 30.36% 11 57.14% 97.3%3621040 $141,100 11.54% 146 33.94% 99.2%2621047 $390,000 6.62% 41 17.14% 96.9%8321050 $319,500 9.42% 87 58.18% 99.0%3421078 $240,600 25.77% 56 47.37% 98.7%39

30

Page 35: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

HARFORD COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21084 $379,500 5.98% 15 15.38% 97.1%4221085 $257,400 26.55% 58 31.82% 99.2%3821132 $249,800 -6.09% 5 0.00% 98.4%2921154 $371,700 -0.64% 12 20.00% 98.2%4321160 $448,200 141.88% 3 -57.14% 99.1%5721161 $315,500 20.88% 2 -60.00% 101.0%5

OTHER $527,000 33.38% 4 -33.33% 98.6%54

31

Page 36: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

HOWARD COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Howard County saw 768 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.7% during the third quarter to 2.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$377,700 $387,300Average Price

971 849# Homes on the Market *

1,489 1,206# Homes Sold **

165 136# New Homes Built ***

18 23Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20723 $345,700 23.29% 136 16.24% 100.4%2320759 $785,700 53.97% 14 100.00% 98.5%2920763 $307,100 27.43% 7 133.33% 100.0%2920777 $653,500 9.41% 10 150.00% 98.6%4420794 $298,900 20.57% 23 -23.33% 101.2%2021029 $668,700 38.42% 42 7.69% 99.7%3121036 $522,300 -26.72% 3 -57.14% 98.6%1821042 $510,100 19.41% 125 19.05% 98.2%3121043 $384,100 25.48% 155 13.97% 100.1%2421044 $326,100 22.23% 214 10.88% 99.7%1921045 $282,800 26.93% 223 10.40% 100.2%19

32

Page 37: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

HOWARD COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21046 $319,600 23.25% 68 -2.86% 99.7%1821075 $363,200 46.39% 108 2.86% 101.1%2321163 $475,100 27.41% 19 18.75% 98.5%2621723 $848,000 115.23% 5 150.00% 97.2%1321737 $754,200 37.68% 3 50.00% 98.4%5021738 $814,400 25.02% 6 -40.00% 99.0%3821765 $685,000 163.46% 1 0.00% 100.0%4321794 $839,500 37.13% 9 200.00% 99.4%1621797 $560,000 -16.17% 12 -14.29% 99.0%30

OTHER $494,600 24.65% 23 -14.81% 98.7%52

33

Page 38: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

KENT COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Kent County saw 154 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.6% during the third quarter to 3.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$339,000 $287,300Average Price

196 182# Homes on the Market *

85 97# Homes Sold **

22 32# New Homes Built ***

126 90Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21610 $145,000 52.63% 2 100.00% 95.1%7721620 $293,500 13.67% 45 55.17% 95.8%7921635 $265,900 24.43% 7 133.33% 91.8%4621645 $241,500 -67.80% 2 100.00% 87.9%8021650 $100,000 -13.04% 1 0.00% 97.2%18421651 $196,700 -9.52% 5 0.00% 88.8%17921661 $332,900 102.99% 21 5.00% 96.9%10621678 $282,200 -24.91% 14 133.33% 97.2%87

34

Page 39: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 216 jobs were added to the payrolls of Montgomery County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.3% during the third quarter to 2.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$439,000 $438,900Average Price

3,464 2,765# Homes on the Market *

5,185 4,330# Homes Sold **

705 321# New Homes Built ***

19 24Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20812 $867,100 50.80% 3 200.00% 96.9%2220814 $587,800 1.15% 103 -19.53% 100.6%2320815 $850,800 22.29% 125 2.46% 100.1%2220816 $764,100 4.53% 86 13.16% 101.7%2020817 $803,000 15.29% 170 16.44% 98.5%2420818 $764,200 8.71% 4 33.33% 99.5%1620832 $422,800 18.43% 128 9.40% 99.5%2820833 $630,100 13.02% 17 0.00% 99.3%5020837 $416,200 29.62% 25 8.70% 98.0%3320839 $155,000 -67.54% 1 -50.00% 79.5%3420841 $601,500 36.46% 32 60.00% 99.2%23

35

Page 40: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20842 $1,215,000 101.16% 1 -75.00% 97.2%4820850 $497,400 21.29% 174 16.00% 99.4%2720851 $339,100 24.71% 53 6.00% 100.2%1920852 $398,600 14.18% 159 -7.02% 99.8%1920853 $430,600 23.84% 136 30.77% 99.5%3020854 $975,600 16.85% 140 -15.66% 98.3%3120855 $405,400 3.60% 46 -6.12% 99.5%3120860 $631,400 37.56% 4 0.00% 100.4%220861 $674,100 40.70% 8 -33.33% 97.5%4920862 $677,500 -15.21% 2 100.00% 96.5%820866 $322,100 22.94% 91 7.06% 100.3%1720868 $375,000 -42.35% 1 0.00% 98.7%720871 $527,200 33.64% 26 160.00% 99.1%3320872 $338,600 15.56% 62 5.08% 99.0%3620874 $309,800 24.22% 469 20.26% 99.9%2220876 $338,400 17.01% 133 9.92% 100.3%2320877 $298,500 17.06% 145 22.88% 100.1%2120878 $444,000 13.96% 325 15.25% 99.3%2620879 $295,600 25.10% 277 -11.22% 100.3%2120880 $547,000 73.10% 2 0.00% 99.5%1120882 $585,200 18.75% 54 58.82% 99.4%3820886 $284,700 11.12% 150 70.45% 100.5%2020895 $430,800 8.76% 81 -5.81% 99.2%2420896 $770,700 96.11% 6 100.00% 99.7%1720901 $358,200 17.29% 130 15.04% 100.8%2220902 $360,800 30.63% 177 11.32% 99.9%2220903 $375,600 24.37% 38 -2.56% 99.5%2420904 $370,700 16.61% 186 14.81% 100.0%2420905 $550,900 20.31% 63 8.62% 98.8%3920906 $320,000 25.44% 349 -3.32% 101.0%2220910 $418,600 24.58% 83 -26.55% 101.5%1620912 $389,700 30.86% 60 -3.23% 99.9%32

OTHER $294,600 -30.89% 5 -37.50% 99.9%22

36

Page 41: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 196 jobs were added to the payrolls of Prince George's County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$247,500 $255,100Average Price

2,809 2,234# Homes on the Market *

4,098 3,784# Homes Sold **

435 307# New Homes Built ***

26 29Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20607 $331,000 28.64% 45 15.38% 99.5%3720608 $251,500 - 2 - 98.2%1120613 $299,300 -12.82% 32 88.24% 101.2%7120623 $302,900 19.91% 11 -26.67% 101.7%1620705 $283,500 19.47% 113 0.00% 99.8%1820706 $282,600 25.60% 138 -7.38% 100.4%2620707 $258,300 40.08% 171 -0.58% 100.5%1420708 $307,800 28.63% 82 -1.20% 99.8%2820710 $164,300 22.16% 16 -20.00% 101.4%3220712 $264,300 41.26% 24 26.32% 100.4%2720715 $324,100 28.15% 132 -1.49% 100.0%21

37

Page 42: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20716 $285,700 27.26% 147 -10.37% 100.0%1620720 $372,500 32.47% 99 6.45% 100.7%2820721 $380,600 18.20% 124 0.81% 100.0%2320722 $215,600 42.31% 21 -30.00% 100.0%3420735 $280,300 25.19% 190 13.10% 100.3%3720737 $238,800 31.64% 70 11.11% 100.5%1820740 $287,300 29.47% 92 1.10% 100.1%1820743 $161,000 26.47% 273 39.29% 101.0%5620744 $296,700 25.03% 273 30.00% 101.5%3920745 $182,500 38.99% 93 9.41% 101.1%2420746 $179,700 21.34% 82 0.00% 101.2%3020747 $192,000 20.91% 194 -8.06% 100.6%2620748 $202,100 25.14% 180 25.00% 100.5%2920769 $435,800 43.31% 28 40.00% 100.7%2320770 $183,700 21.82% 89 -18.35% 100.7%1720772 $279,000 23.73% 280 4.09% 100.6%2920774 $298,100 46.56% 148 -31.48% 100.8%3520781 $234,100 30.13% 53 1.92% 99.7%3120782 $257,800 25.57% 82 26.15% 100.4%2920783 $226,000 29.14% 144 13.39% 100.4%2020784 $204,100 24.76% 163 17.27% 101.0%3020785 $185,600 24.73% 169 23.36% 100.9%36

OTHER $256,800 44.59% 24 71.43% 100.5%27

38

Page 43: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 111 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 3% in the third quarter to 3.1% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Queen Anne's County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$396,000 $405,200Average Price

387 416# Homes on the Market *

270 212# Homes Sold **

62 70# New Homes Built ***

70 69Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21607 $1,044,000 461.89% 3 0.00% 76.2%8821617 $337,800 5.33% 34 6.25% 98.1%5621619 $357,200 20.84% 19 -38.71% 98.7%2821623 $161,200 -17.54% 2 -33.33% 100.0%1121628 $498,000 500.00% 1 0.00% 100.0%21021638 $484,300 40.78% 45 50.00% 98.8%9021657 $204,000 -38.61% 3 0.00% 96.7%9821658 $428,700 -20.60% 19 58.33% 96.3%6821666 $472,200 36.55% 61 -4.69% 96.0%7921668 $193,500 -23.12% 6 0.00% 97.9%37

OTHER $166,400 -29.82% 19 -9.52% 99.0%60

39

Page 44: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ST. MARY'S COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 689 jobs were added to the payrolls of St Mary's County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.8% during the third quarter to 2.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$251,800 $283,700Average Price

448 511# Homes on the Market *

412 361# Homes Sold **

265 210# New Homes Built ***

29 44Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20606 $335,000 - 1 - 95.7%14120609 $550,000 58.00% 1 -75.00% 92.4%320619 $220,800 19.55% 35 -16.67% 99.3%1920620 $298,200 56.78% 4 -42.86% 99.8%1320621 $596,300 132.66% 3 -25.00% 99.1%12520622 $374,800 21.10% 3 -25.00% 100.0%3620624 $439,100 - 2 - 100.0%3920626 $235,000 - 1 - 104.4%3220628 $525,000 169.65% 1 -66.67% 95.6%19520630 $488,000 10.28% 3 50.00% 97.3%4620634 $233,000 19.43% 36 -25.00% 100.8%39

40

Page 45: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ST. MARY'S COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20636 $359,000 27.58% 36 24.14% 99.7%3120650 $340,000 17.65% 50 25.00% 98.5%4120653 $241,400 19.62% 113 26.97% 99.2%5620659 $269,300 21.36% 51 -40.00% 99.8%2920667 $334,100 98.28% 2 100.00% 99.9%020674 $265,000 3.48% 1 -80.00% 102.3%2920680 $275,500 -9.67% 4 300.00% 96.7%6320684 $280,000 9.80% 3 -25.00% 96.0%8620686 $404,500 - 2 - 99.9%2120687 $282,500 14.14% 2 -33.33% 83.7%42220690 $452,600 43.00% 4 0.00% 98.0%4220692 $398,800 85.49% 3 200.00% 94.8%57

41

Page 46: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

TALBOT COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 379 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 2.7% in the third quarter to 2.8% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Talbot County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$497,500 $592,000Average Price

449 447# Homes on the Market *

238 209# Homes Sold **

203 95# New Homes Built ***

85 102Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21601 $438,200 39.55% 117 12.50% 94.4%10221612 $875,000 85.22% 1 -75.00% 94.6%421624 $352,500 - 1 - 98.2%021625 $263,800 75.87% 6 200.00% 98.1%6421647 $282,500 -83.13% 2 0.00% 89.1%6621652 $232,000 - 2 - 92.8%7221654 $1,014,200 6.77% 12 0.00% 88.5%14721662 $1,747,800 39.02% 10 233.33% 92.1%4821663 $653,900 26.95% 31 24.00% 93.0%10821665 $1,231,000 472.56% 5 400.00% 98.0%6821671 $423,000 -18.64% 8 14.29% 92.1%166

42

Page 47: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

TALBOT COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21673 $818,000 74.15% 9 -18.18% 97.5%8421676 $386,100 -2.01% 4 -33.33% 95.7%188

OTHER $245,000 40.40% 1 0.00% 100.0%9

43

Page 48: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

WASHINGTON COUNTY, MD

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 801 jobs were added to the payrolls of Washington County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.6% during the third quarter to 3.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$211,700 $216,100Average Price

553 614# Homes on the Market *

550 485# Homes Sold **

294 201# New Homes Built ***

43 42Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21711 $149,900 -21.39% 1 -66.67% 100.0%7621713 $280,400 22.34% 26 -3.70% 97.6%3621719 $193,200 -50.19% 6 500.00% 98.7%2821722 $202,500 -0.39% 15 15.38% 98.4%7421733 $317,000 27.31% 6 200.00% 97.5%8221734 $222,200 10.55% 3 0.00% 97.8%2821740 $174,600 19.43% 213 17.03% 98.4%4021742 $248,400 24.82% 117 -7.14% 97.9%4521748 $175,000 - 1 - 100.0%521750 $102,200 -20.90% 5 -50.00% 93.5%4221756 $356,400 35.62% 9 50.00% 98.3%56

44

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Local Report

WASHINGTON COUNTY, MD

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)21767 $176,000 8.98% 4 100.00% 95.1%2121779 $267,800 -19.24% 5 25.00% 96.4%3921782 $266,500 81.17% 20 66.67% 98.5%4021783 $234,100 12.66% 23 -11.54% 98.1%3921795 $241,500 18.32% 25 8.70% 96.6%36

OTHER $273,200 41.26% 6 100.00% 97.7%41

45

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Local Report

FRANKLIN COUNTY, PA

1 2 3 4 5

Franklin County saw 218 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.3% during the third quarter to 3.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$160,000 $158,200Average Price

601 573# Homes on the Market *

589 498# Homes Sold **

229 95# New Homes Built ***

63 55Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)17201 $159,700 17.43% 218 10.66% 98.2%6417210 $90,000 -23.92% 1 -66.67% 97.3%3417214 $220,900 99.55% 4 33.33% 101.5%1117219 $105,000 - 1 - 96.3%2717221 $57,500 -60.32% 1 0.00% 82.3%21317222 $144,100 28.09% 38 -5.00% 97.7%5917224 $80,300 -10.78% 5 25.00% 98.5%3817225 $202,600 22.42% 55 -3.51% 100.3%3917235 $112,000 - 4 - 95.4%517236 $223,500 47.82% 17 -19.05% 97.5%7317237 $109,000 -12.73% 7 16.67% 100.6%27

46

Page 51: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FRANKLIN COUNTY, PA

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)17244 $107,700 - 2 - 102.4%817251 $76,500 - 5 - 98.2%6517252 $234,100 65.56% 5 -16.67% 92.4%4617262 $52,000 - 1 - 94.7%31417268 $139,000 9.88% 87 12.99% 99.3%4817271 $200,000 0.00% 1 0.00% 97.6%5717272 $164,700 - 1 - 99.8%42

OTHER $145,000 7.57% 45 80.00% 98.5%48

47

Page 52: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FULTON COUNTY, PA

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 22 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4.5% in the third quarter to 4.8% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Fulton County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$129,100 $132,500Average Price

49 44# Homes on the Market *

22 23# Homes Sold **

3 1# New Homes Built ***

92 92Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)15536 $152,600 - 3 - 97.1%11316689 $189,900 - 1 - 100.0%1217229 $137,500 38.19% 2 100.00% 96.3%917233 $123,200 26.49% 11 120.00% 96.3%11017238 $50,500 -75.49% 1 -66.67% 101.2%43217267 $143,700 -60.58% 5 150.00% 97.8%21

48

Page 53: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ALEXANDRIA CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Alexandria City saw 694 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.2% during the third quarter to 1.9% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$409,400 $423,400Average Price

680 564# Homes on the Market *

963 856# Homes Sold **

2 74# New Homes Built ***

15 19Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22301 $514,500 19.93% 64 0.00% 100.5%1322302 $366,500 16.76% 138 32.69% 100.3%1422304 $360,600 28.42% 272 21.97% 100.0%1822305 $406,400 21.82% 54 -26.03% 100.0%1822311 $454,000 12.04% 27 22.73% 100.5%1822314 $569,300 16.64% 224 5.66% 98.7%26

OTHER $248,000 47.71% 77 14.93% 99.8%17

49

Page 54: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

ARLINGTON COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Arlington County saw 977 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 1.8% during the third quarter to 1.7% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$465,900 $479,100Average Price

674 596# Homes on the Market *

1,100 880# Homes Sold **

0 1# New Homes Built ***

13 16Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22201 $493,100 16.11% 132 0.00% 100.3%1422202 $570,800 44.03% 57 3.64% 99.1%2722203 $389,900 9.99% 101 -12.93% 99.9%2122204 $367,200 31.66% 202 3.06% 100.5%1422205 $659,000 24.93% 74 23.33% 100.8%1622206 $347,500 23.80% 95 -13.64% 101.0%922207 $696,500 13.75% 125 -8.76% 100.0%1922209 $427,900 19.96% 83 -4.60% 99.7%1822213 $555,300 19.94% 11 -42.11% 101.2%6

50

Page 55: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CAROLINE COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 174 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4% in the third quarter to 4.1% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Caroline County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$192,700 $208,400Average Price

135 126# Homes on the Market *

99 122# Homes Sold **

119 112# New Homes Built ***

70 26Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22427 $187,800 -8.97% 12 140.00% 99.2%3222514 $211,400 29.77% 3 -40.00% 99.2%422535 $287,700 95.71% 4 300.00% 99.9%6222546 $206,300 41.69% 93 78.85% 99.5%2422580 $220,100 62.68% 10 -9.09% 97.1%33

51

Page 56: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 120 jobs were added to the payrolls of Charlottesville City. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.5% during the third quarter to 2.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

NA $175,000Average Price

NA 1# Homes on the Market *

NA 2# Homes Sold **

NA 18# New Homes Built ***

NA 21Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22902 $175,000 - 2 - 92.4%22

52

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Local Report

CLARKE COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Clarke County saw 56 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.1% during the third quarter to 1.9% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$361,400 $454,800Average Price

86 84# Homes on the Market *

73 79# Homes Sold **

26 13# New Homes Built ***

74 65Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20130 $476,300 -12.44% 3 50.00% 99.3%2420135 $380,800 17.39% 8 14.29% 97.7%5622611 $484,600 53.79% 56 107.41% 96.1%7122620 $351,700 20.36% 9 0.00% 98.9%6922663 $385,600 97.95% 3 50.00% 97.6%33

53

Page 58: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

CULPEPER COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Culpeper County saw 150 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.6% during the third quarter to 2.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$301,200 $302,400Average Price

346 351# Homes on the Market *

238 195# Homes Sold **

368 198# New Homes Built ***

35 40Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20106 $351,300 10.68% 13 18.18% 100.4%5822701 $275,400 20.53% 130 54.76% 99.7%3522713 $346,400 53.27% 3 200.00% 101.4%6922714 $391,400 38.89% 9 -30.77% 99.3%6422718 $260,000 140.74% 1 0.00% 96.3%322724 $440,800 2.16% 9 -47.06% 98.9%5122733 $214,300 18.07% 5 25.00% 100.4%1122736 $376,300 118.78% 5 400.00% 97.3%4622737 $348,100 40.70% 13 62.50% 99.4%60

OTHER $333,900 36.40% 7 0.00% 99.1%46

54

Page 59: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FAIRFAX CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Fairfax City saw 110 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2% during the third quarter to 1.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$395,700 $402,000Average Price

84 79# Homes on the Market *

116 136# Homes Sold **

7 9# New Homes Built ***

12 17Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22030 $417,600 25.93% 102 52.24% 99.8%19

OTHER $355,200 13.45% 34 41.67% 99.8%12

55

Page 60: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FAIRFAX COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Fairfax County saw 4,768 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2% during the third quarter to 1.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$448,300 $459,100Average Price

4,500 3,477# Homes on the Market *

7,195 6,172# Homes Sold **

750 380# New Homes Built ***

14 18Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20120 $394,600 12.65% 391 47.55% 99.8%1720121 $357,100 31.97% 247 -2.76% 100.0%1820124 $569,300 7.11% 65 -9.72% 99.1%2320151 $434,700 27.14% 93 -24.39% 99.7%1520170 $398,300 24.35% 219 10.05% 100.0%1420171 $505,600 22.01% 179 4.68% 99.8%1520172 $196,500 - 1 - 103.5%420190 $374,100 22.18% 128 13.27% 99.4%1220191 $334,900 17.26% 239 3.02% 100.3%1520194 $480,800 4.30% 92 -14.81% 99.7%1422003 $387,600 13.04% 267 -0.74% 99.8%17

56

Page 61: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FAIRFAX COUNTY, VA

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22015 $387,400 22.32% 269 35.86% 100.0%1722027 $805,300 17.72% 9 -62.50% 98.1%3122031 $497,400 36.31% 115 12.75% 100.3%1722032 $439,800 12.34% 119 -4.80% 99.8%1522033 $438,800 32.53% 301 37.44% 100.1%1622039 $798,500 25.27% 50 -13.79% 99.0%2122041 $324,800 27.02% 123 0.00% 99.8%2122042 $390,300 18.89% 173 7.45% 100.4%1822043 $418,200 9.30% 88 -10.20% 100.3%1522044 $390,900 21.28% 65 -9.72% 98.0%1522060 $607,000 32.22% 10 11.11% 100.2%522066 $1,318,800 22.03% 64 -5.88% 96.3%6122079 $453,100 44.99% 263 73.03% 99.8%1222101 $964,400 24.63% 150 27.12% 97.5%3122102 $723,300 38.56% 128 -18.47% 98.2%3422124 $638,200 6.51% 89 0.00% 99.9%2322150 $423,900 15.72% 100 1.01% 100.7%2522151 $419,800 20.91% 85 0.00% 100.2%1722152 $377,500 25.42% 197 8.24% 100.2%1622153 $415,700 29.22% 182 2.82% 100.0%1822180 $520,100 27.32% 109 -10.66% 100.0%1622181 $565,600 20.93% 90 45.16% 99.2%1822182 $705,400 15.49% 106 -3.64% 99.0%1622303 $299,000 9.48% 93 16.25% 100.0%1722306 $380,200 27.80% 141 25.89% 100.0%1922307 $490,500 42.79% 86 21.13% 98.6%1722308 $658,800 42.07% 57 11.76% 100.8%2322309 $351,000 33.87% 210 19.32% 99.5%2022310 $415,100 25.90% 216 24.14% 100.3%1622312 $417,600 24.77% 114 18.75% 100.0%1722315 $412,200 20.99% 201 -11.06% 100.1%15

OTHER $517,800 22.30% 248 15.35% 99.9%21

57

Page 62: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FALLS CHURCH CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Falls Church City saw 52 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.2% during the third quarter to 3.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$513,000 $556,100Average Price

52 43# Homes on the Market *

93 59# Homes Sold **

1 1# New Homes Built ***

12 23Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22046 $584,500 20.05% 50 19.05% 100.4%24

OTHER $398,300 23.66% 9 50.00% 100.9%17

58

Page 63: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FAUQUIER COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Fauquier County saw 257 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2% during the third quarter to 1.9% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$414,900 $405,800Average Price

370 379# Homes on the Market *

306 283# Homes Sold **

188 89# New Homes Built ***

39 40Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20115 $401,600 17.08% 24 -11.11% 97.0%4820119 $453,300 30.75% 8 -27.27% 100.3%3920137 $431,300 29.33% 6 20.00% 98.4%6720144 $683,100 61.37% 5 66.67% 97.5%11420184 $410,000 169.74% 1 0.00% 95.6%7320186 $418,300 28.91% 65 -5.80% 96.6%3820187 $428,000 16.12% 60 30.43% 99.1%2420198 $763,700 -20.70% 6 20.00% 92.8%4722639 $519,500 -71.53% 3 0.00% 98.7%3822712 $321,300 30.72% 56 100.00% 99.5%3122720 $456,600 52.20% 3 200.00% 98.6%82

59

Page 64: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FAUQUIER COUNTY, VA

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22728 $387,700 22.30% 10 -44.44% 99.7%7222734 $229,900 28.58% 14 -22.22% 99.3%1422739 $850,000 - 1 - 96.1%2122742 $328,600 41.88% 8 14.29% 98.4%86

OTHER $478,600 -44.47% 13 0.00% 92.7%73

60

Page 65: The Forecast Chief Economist’s Commentary and find out why

Local Report

FREDERICK COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Frederick County saw 218 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.5% during the third quarter to 2% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$260,600 $262,200Average Price

470 443# Homes on the Market *

533 474# Homes Sold **

331 193# New Homes Built ***

40 36Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22602 $275,800 20.54% 221 23.46% 99.8%4322603 $289,600 14.42% 49 25.64% 98.9%3522624 $326,600 24.75% 9 -10.00% 98.3%3022625 $265,200 36.00% 27 68.75% 103.1%5522637 $420,500 225.46% 3 -25.00% 99.3%4722645 $232,300 -17.04% 7 133.33% 97.8%4622654 $242,500 166.48% 2 0.00% 86.8%5522655 $220,300 13.32% 128 -10.49% 99.1%2322656 $235,500 10.67% 6 100.00% 97.0%38

OTHER $274,300 71.65% 22 46.67% 99.5%14

61

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Local Report

FREDERICKSBURG CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Fredericksburg City saw 84 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.3% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$249,100 $263,900Average Price

89 102# Homes on the Market *

105 71# Homes Sold **

83 19# New Homes Built ***

30 34Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22401 $265,900 1.26% 68 38.78% 98.7%3522404 $161,000 - 1 - 100.7%23

OTHER $246,500 80.45% 2 -33.33% 99.2%39

62

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Local Report

KING GEORGE COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 72 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 2.1% in the third quarter to 2.6% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in King George County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$291,200 $269,400Average Price

115 131# Homes on the Market *

106 81# Homes Sold **

101 73# New Homes Built ***

39 35Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22448 $236,400 - 1 - 102.8%4222485 $269,800 34.03% 80 31.15% 99.1%36

63

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Local Report

LOUDOUN COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Loudoun County saw 998 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2% during the third quarter to 1.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$438,900 $460,600Average Price

1,844 1,588# Homes on the Market *

2,467 2,275# Homes Sold **

1,601 681# New Homes Built ***

17 19Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20105 $491,600 10.08% 103 30.38% 99.5%1220117 $734,200 -38.31% 24 242.86% 95.6%5820129 $445,000 95.09% 2 -60.00% 101.7%9620132 $488,100 14.39% 81 30.65% 99.4%2820141 $535,500 19.72% 40 48.15% 99.1%3220146 $363,000 - 1 - 102.8%5020147 $437,100 23.68% 400 17.30% 99.8%1620148 $556,800 14.76% 139 -24.04% 99.8%1120152 $529,900 35.35% 225 47.06% 99.8%1420158 $404,500 -0.22% 14 -33.33% 99.7%4520164 $344,400 30.90% 314 9.79% 100.1%19

64

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Local Report

LOUDOUN COUNTY, VA

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20165 $421,200 21.31% 254 1.20% 99.8%1720166 $393,400 35.66% 71 57.78% 100.0%1320175 $417,100 19.79% 152 -2.56% 99.3%2320176 $496,000 19.09% 382 22.44% 99.7%1820178 $468,900 - 1 - 100.4%020180 $592,200 52.79% 38 111.11% 100.5%6320197 $839,700 -3.12% 7 16.67% 95.0%89

OTHER $570,600 21.04% 27 0.00% 96.0%85

65

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Local Report

MADISON COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Madison County saw 16 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 1.6% during the third quarter to 1.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$239,900 $264,900Average Price

61 67# Homes on the Market *

37 31# Homes Sold **

21 17# New Homes Built ***

39 55Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22715 $569,000 217.35% 1 -66.67% 95.0%7522719 $280,000 23.89% 1 -50.00% 96.9%9422723 $118,000 - 1 - 100.0%2922727 $242,200 21.46% 17 41.67% 99.3%2622732 $349,900 99.94% 1 0.00% 97.2%17622735 $405,000 440.00% 3 200.00% 93.5%14122738 $225,000 95.65% 1 0.00% 100.0%6722743 $291,700 116.07% 3 200.00% 92.6%62

OTHER $154,300 -23.88% 3 -25.00% 98.9%81

66

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Local Report

MANASSAS CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Manassas City saw 176 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.5% during the third quarter to 2.3% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$285,100 $295,900Average Price

169 119# Homes on the Market *

354 292# Homes Sold **

36 21# New Homes Built ***

13 15Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20110 $295,200 29.19% 288 11.20% 100.0%15

OTHER $346,800 32.87% 4 33.33% 100.4%5

67

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Local Report

MANASSAS PARK CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Manassas Park City saw 49 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.2% during the third quarter to 1.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$297,500 $307,200Average Price

71 48# Homes on the Market *

117 123# Homes Sold **

20 12# New Homes Built ***

14 21Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)OTHER $307,200 25.70% 123 41.38% 99.9%21

68

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Local Report

ORANGE COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Orange County saw 28 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.6% during the third quarter to 2.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$250,300 $248,300Average Price

210 228# Homes on the Market *

191 148# Homes Sold **

137 79# New Homes Built ***

56 49Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22508 $269,400 11.18% 89 34.85% 99.0%4722542 $226,200 29.41% 7 -22.22% 99.7%6122567 $256,100 24.87% 17 183.33% 102.4%4722923 $211,500 - 4 - 97.9%3422942 $199,200 35.51% 3 -57.14% 98.8%3522960 $192,700 -1.28% 26 -7.14% 97.8%61

OTHER $188,800 -3.18% 2 100.00% 100.0%35

69

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Local Report

PAGE COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Page County saw 107 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.9% during the third quarter to 2.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$148,100 $204,600Average Price

24 30# Homes on the Market *

10 18# Homes Sold **

41 23# New Homes Built ***

37 64Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22650 $437,500 311.57% 2 100.00% 97.8%4122835 $180,600 27.00% 11 57.14% 93.3%8322849 $165,000 - 1 - 97.1%422851 $164,200 13.63% 4 100.00% 98.8%42

70

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Local Report

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Prince William County saw 1,379 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.4% during the third quarter to 2.3% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$336,500 $355,200Average Price

2,004 1,702# Homes on the Market *

3,099 2,877# Homes Sold **

1,772 701# New Homes Built ***

15 19Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)20109 $276,000 32.25% 288 6.67% 100.0%1820111 $380,000 46.44% 120 7.14% 99.6%2020112 $486,000 16.86% 128 26.73% 99.3%3020136 $415,600 29.47% 267 51.70% 100.1%1720143 $755,000 47.23% 7 16.67% 98.9%9420155 $441,800 15.29% 221 15.10% 100.0%2120168 $645,000 - 1 - 96.2%8820169 $535,500 9.31% 101 -14.41% 100.7%2120181 $512,000 21.38% 28 -6.67% 99.1%3620182 $442,900 - 1 - 100.0%022026 $320,800 30.73% 253 27.14% 100.0%16

71

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Local Report

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY, VA

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22125 $375,700 57.92% 6 -50.00% 98.5%2022172 $256,200 24.43% 22 0.00% 98.7%2422191 $319,700 33.15% 346 28.15% 100.0%2122192 $318,700 28.15% 466 20.10% 100.2%1622193 $321,800 30.65% 556 15.35% 100.0%18

OTHER $363,800 18.39% 66 -1.49% 100.3%16

72

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Local Report

RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 5 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rappahannock County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 1.6% during the third quarter to 1.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$788,400 $361,800Average Price

49 51# Homes on the Market *

33 20# Homes Sold **

20 6# New Homes Built ***

138 68Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22623 $195,000 - 4 - 98.3%2522627 $649,500 1.36% 2 -50.00% 96.7%29722716 $300,800 -51.73% 2 -33.33% 100.4%9922740 $238,500 16.63% 2 0.00% 114.9%522747 $451,700 -11.43% 3 200.00% 95.8%54

OTHER $388,900 -1.92% 7 40.00% 101.1%43

73

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Local Report

SHENANDOAH COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 165 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 2.6% in the third quarter to 2.7% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Shenandoah County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$199,600 $209,100Average Price

108 125# Homes on the Market *

101 94# Homes Sold **

86 75# New Homes Built ***

44 31Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22644 $196,200 9.43% 6 0.00% 99.7%1522652 $276,500 225.29% 2 100.00% 97.0%5422657 $229,400 73.39% 53 20.45% 114.8%2822660 $157,300 -42.06% 2 -50.00% 100.0%222664 $195,700 15.59% 14 7.69% 98.3%3622810 $158,500 -7.96% 4 300.00% 95.3%1722824 $197,100 33.72% 3 -40.00% 100.7%1522842 $98,500 -1.40% 3 -25.00% 101.0%3122844 $174,900 -5.97% 1 0.00% 97.2%16522847 $174,200 - 2 - 98.5%11

OTHER $166,100 40.05% 4 300.00% 98.5%90

74

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Local Report

SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Spotsylvania County saw 439 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.1% during the third quarter to 1.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$274,700 $282,200Average Price

650 584# Homes on the Market *

804 679# Homes Sold **

350 259# New Homes Built ***

22 25Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22407 $273,000 31.25% 324 20.45% 100.0%2022408 $275,100 28.01% 158 -5.39% 99.9%1822534 $205,700 22.29% 11 120.00% 101.3%6722553 $299,300 14.63% 153 10.87% 99.5%31

OTHER $353,700 22.73% 33 32.00% 98.0%60

75

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Local Report

STAFFORD COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

A decline in employment of 443 jobs was offset by a decrease in the number of persons looking for work during the first two months of the fourth quarter. The net effect was no change in the 1.9% average monthly unemployment rate from the third quarter. Despite the job losses, mortgage rates remain at or near historic lows. Mortgage rates will drive home sales this spring.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$312,700 $324,700Average Price

606 552# Homes on the Market *

789 661# Homes Sold **

403 301# New Homes Built ***

22 25Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22405 $277,800 23.47% 143 4.38% 99.5%2322406 $361,400 24.71% 95 37.68% 99.5%2722554 $330,400 29.06% 360 2.27% 99.9%2722556 $343,500 - 54 - 99.4%20

OTHER $341,200 11.69% 9 -67.86% 100.0%11

76

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Local Report

WARREN COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 135 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 2.9% in the third quarter to 3% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Warren County. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$216,200 $229,200Average Price

243 239# Homes on the Market *

246 234# Homes Sold **

129 77# New Homes Built ***

40 44Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22610 $233,400 102.60% 5 150.00% 100.2%9822630 $224,200 24.56% 171 -3.39% 99.2%4522642 $240,700 49.50% 54 58.82% 99.5%34

OTHER $279,100 28.62% 4 -50.00% 101.9%57

77

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Local Report

WESTMORELAND COUNTY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Westmoreland County saw 52 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.2% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$204,400 $180,900Average Price

98 114# Homes on the Market *

60 56# Homes Sold **

57 61# New Homes Built ***

45 53Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22443 $166,500 24.07% 44 -16.98% 96.4%5322488 $130,500 - 1 - 87.3%30422520 $276,100 50.87% 9 -10.00% 99.4%2822524 $139,900 - 1 - 100.6%96

OTHER $45,000 -71.88% 1 0.00% 89.1%20

78

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Local Report

WINCHESTER CITY, VA

1 2 3 4 5

Employment declined by 84 jobs in October and November. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 2.7% in the third quarter to 2.9% for the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in Winchester City. Combined with favorable low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a strong pace.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$221,300 $249,000Average Price

74 85# Homes on the Market *

118 88# Homes Sold **

34 27# New Homes Built ***

29 27Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22601 $246,200 31.31% 86 13.16% 98.1%28

OTHER $370,300 89.99% 2 100.00% 98.7%27

79

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Local Report

BERKELEY COUNTY, WV

1 2 3 4 5

Berkeley County saw 526 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 3.7% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$179,100 $184,500Average Price

529 492# Homes on the Market *

476 471# Homes Sold **

402 247# New Homes Built ***

47 39Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)25401 $174,100 13.72% 244 7.96% 99.5%3425413 $197,200 24.81% 28 64.71% 99.2%2625419 $257,700 73.89% 33 73.68% 99.2%5225420 $134,700 14.15% 25 38.89% 99.4%3225421 $75,200 - 1 - 95.2%1325427 $191,100 17.82% 75 31.58% 97.9%6225428 $190,700 17.07% 54 92.86% 100.0%40

OTHER $212,000 -32.44% 11 266.67% 100.4%39

80

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Local Report

GRANT COUNTY, WV

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 5 jobs were added to the payrolls of Grant County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 9.8% during the third quarter to 7.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$112,800 $118,700Average Price

50 50# Homes on the Market *

19 13# Homes Sold **

-53 22# New Homes Built ***

72 124Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)26731 $79,000 - 1 - 75.2%23626739 $27,000 -54.24% 1 -50.00% 98.2%7726833 $163,100 101.36% 6 500.00% 89.4%11526847 $108,000 48.97% 2 0.00% 94.9%11526855 $66,000 -83.60% 2 0.00% 92.3%196

OTHER $110,000 - 1 - 100.0%0

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Local Report

HAMPSHIRE COUNTY, WV

1 2 3 4 5

Hampshire County saw 137 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$134,000 $121,500Average Price

130 116# Homes on the Market *

77 76# Homes Sold **

NA NA# New Homes Built ***

68 94Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)25431 $200,000 - 1 - 100.0%7725444 $126,500 14.27% 4 -33.33% 98.7%11526704 $115,000 -4.80% 15 87.50% 96.8%12026711 $110,500 -12.51% 15 25.00% 98.1%5626714 $31,500 -59.35% 2 -60.00% 101.6%2126722 $258,000 578.95% 3 200.00% 96.9%26126755 $185,000 - 1 - 100.0%2826757 $101,100 27.97% 16 45.45% 96.8%9926761 $145,000 -44.23% 1 0.00% 100.0%15426763 $111,700 130.31% 5 150.00% 90.6%11026817 $190,800 226.15% 2 100.00% 99.3%92

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Local Report

HAMPSHIRE COUNTY, WV

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)26852 $128,000 - 1 - 91.4%1626865 $152,200 18.72% 5 150.00% 92.0%34

OTHER $106,400 -17.20% 5 150.00% 90.0%91

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Local Report

HARDY COUNTY, WV

1 2 3 4 5

Hardy County saw 95 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.7% during the third quarter to 2.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$126,400 $135,700Average Price

69 63# Homes on the Market *

35 38# Homes Sold **

29 20# New Homes Built ***

110 106Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)26801 $104,100 - 3 - 91.3%14926810 $168,000 150.75% 3 0.00% 99.0%9226812 $172,700 62.31% 7 40.00% 92.8%15726836 $131,500 46.93% 8 60.00% 91.1%15926845 $93,800 29.38% 3 200.00% 96.8%7126851 $132,700 -29.38% 13 30.00% 98.6%52

OTHER $72,500 - 1 - 81.0%63

84

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Local Report

JEFFERSON COUNTY, WV

1 2 3 4 5

Jefferson County saw 307 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 2.8% during the third quarter to 2.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving record low mortgage rates to drive home sales.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$274,900 $268,300Average Price

288 290# Homes on the Market *

297 250# Homes Sold **

134 50# New Homes Built ***

51 51Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)25410 $237,500 - 1 - 89.6%3925414 $266,300 17.78% 88 4.76% 99.6%5425425 $270,600 48.03% 68 0.00% 98.0%5425430 $260,600 39.66% 24 100.00% 98.5%5225438 $157,200 23.88% 20 -4.76% 97.3%3725441 $96,800 - 3 - 96.2%9425442 $346,300 -15.86% 3 -25.00% 99.0%1325443 $326,600 8.54% 32 77.78% 100.0%5325446 $371,200 11.81% 8 300.00% 109.9%58

OTHER $282,500 43.55% 3 -25.00% 100.0%4

85

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Local Report

MINERAL COUNTY, WV

1 2 3 4 5

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 101 jobs were added to the payrolls of Mineral County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 7% during the third quarter to 5.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05

$109,300 $108,500Average Price

115 106# Homes on the Market *

70 52# Homes Sold **

28 12# New Homes Built ***

83 98Avg # of Days on Market * Available as of Dec. 31, 2004. ** May not add to total of zip codes*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)26717 $91,000 - 1 - 100.0%5926719 $143,800 - 5 - 97.8%7526726 $79,100 -3.06% 22 -4.35% 95.0%10026743 $121,600 -37.48% 6 -14.29% 97.5%22826753 $146,400 13.75% 15 -6.25% 94.9%7226767 $56,300 -82.35% 3 200.00% 98.3%16

86

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Local Report

Others

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)15411 $181,600 - 1 - 100.9%3715459 $85,000 - 1 - 95.6%4915522 $101,000 - 3 - 94.4%6015535 $142,000 - 1 - 94.7%5615537 $115,000 - 1 - 92.0%16015558 $85,000 - 1 - 86.7%2415562 $117,500 - 2 - 97.9%3415564 $43,000 - 1 - 100.0%015821 $75,900 - 1 - 189.8%1616621 $221,700 - 1 - 88.7%017215 $35,000 - 1 - 90.0%23117222 $110,000 - 2 - 96.7%4817229 $150,000 - 1 - 94.3%3617240 $79,000 - 1 - 96.1%2917243 $390,000 - 1 - 100.0%017255 $54,900 - 1 - 100.0%717257 $120,600 - 26 - 95.6%5517264 $300,000 - 2 - 93.8%20717301 $122,000 - 1 - 96.1%9117314 $340,500 - 2 - 96.6%2117320 $265,200 - 4 - 97.3%5517321 $200,000 - 2 - 92.0%8317322 $375,000 - 2 - 97.5%4417325 $308,400 - 6 - 98.8%3817327 $290,000 - 1 - 93.9%4917329 $285,000 - 1 - 100.0%7317331 $307,300 - 3 - 99.4%4617349 $251,500 - 2 - 96.8%2017353 $176,000 - 2 - 94.5%18417360 $229,000 - 1 - 99.6%22117361 $271,000 - 1 - 96.8%1417362 $146,000 - 1 - 97.4%77

87

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Local Report

Others

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)17363 $198,900 - 4 - 98.3%2517372 $495,000 - 1 - 100.0%13017403 $67,900 - 1 - 94.4%017407 $140,000 - 1 - 96.6%2419362 $275,000 - 1 - 94.9%1919701 $182,500 -31.90% 1 0.00% 101.4%119709 $149,900 - 1 - 101.4%1319720 $132,400 - 1 - 98.1%3719734 $136,000 - 1 - 100.7%319805 $126,900 - 1 - 102.4%519808 $156,000 4.07% 1 0.00% 102.0%1119933 $130,000 - 1 - 83.9%8120001 $620,000 - 1 - 98.6%9320678 $235,000 - 1 - 100.0%121114 $409,100 - 1 - 100.0%021801 $223,500 - 2 - 100.4%1021804 $200,700 - 2 - 101.4%321811 $252,900 - 1 - 98.8%9121817 $341,700 - 3 - 91.7%19221821 $61,300 - 2 - 104.7%1221822 $50,000 - 1 - 89.3%6821826 $100,800 - 2 - 100.0%2121830 $61,200 - 1 - 100.0%4221837 $271,000 - 1 - 100.4%11121842 $348,900 - 3 - 97.5%2421853 $48,800 - 2 - 87.4%7021861 $97,000 - 1 - 97.1%12421875 $150,000 - 1 - 100.0%122435 $192,500 - 1 - 97.0%4222460 $65,000 - 1 - 76.6%12022511 $460,000 - 1 - 92.4%4922539 $290,000 -44.91% 1 0.00% 100.0%2822560 $212,000 - 2 - 89.6%5522572 $324,900 - 1 - 100.0%15

88

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Local Report

Others

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)22801 $188,300 - 2 - 100.0%022815 $74,000 - 2 - 98.7%7922830 $76,000 - 1 - 100.7%4022901 $628,800 -25.67% 2 -33.33% 98.7%022902 $239,900 - 4 - 103.1%022923 $220,000 - 3 - 97.9%8622939 $198,000 - 1 - 96.6%3622942 $101,000 - 2 - 97.8%1322968 $259,800 - 7 - 99.6%3222973 $203,600 - 7 - 98.2%8222974 $241,700 - 4 - 97.5%3123002 $395,000 - 1 - 100.0%023005 $315,600 - 6 - 97.7%2823015 $250,000 - 3 - 99.7%723024 $313,600 - 18 - 98.9%8023035 $1,375,000 - 1 - 94.8%23623059 $293,000 0.00% 2 100.00% 98.4%023060 $222,500 12.83% 6 0.00% 99.3%023063 $220,000 - 1 - 100.0%023075 $88,000 - 1 - 95.7%023093 $155,700 - 25 - 98.8%6023113 $260,300 - 7 - 98.7%023114 $143,000 - 1 - 99.3%023116 $238,800 - 3 - 98.9%123117 $266,200 - 28 - 97.8%7223139 $239,500 71.07% 1 0.00% 100.0%023177 $261,000 - 1 - 98.5%023188 $350,000 59.09% 1 0.00% 100.0%023192 $164,900 - 1 - 97.1%4623220 $286,500 221.91% 1 0.00% 96.3%023221 $390,800 - 1 - 97.9%023223 $122,000 - 3 - 95.2%023225 $177,800 -19.22% 3 50.00% 100.2%023226 $263,500 46.80% 2 100.00% 100.0%0

89

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Local Report

Others

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)23227 $275,000 -2.65% 1 -50.00% 95.5%023231 $156,500 - 1 - 100.0%023233 $133,800 -48.34% 2 -71.43% 97.3%023234 $159,000 69.15% 4 300.00% 100.2%023235 $203,000 41.46% 2 -33.33% 96.7%023236 $176,000 2.03% 1 -50.00% 100.9%023237 $93,500 -34.62% 1 0.00% 96.4%023238 $670,000 - 1 - 95.8%023693 $329,200 73.72% 2 100.00% 100.0%024012 $177,000 - 1 - 98.4%024016 $120,000 - 1 - 100.0%024018 $293,100 80.93% 3 200.00% 97.8%024084 $106,500 - 1 - 91.9%9024121 $442,000 - 1 - 98.3%024153 $169,000 - 3 - 96.9%024175 $215,000 -32.81% 2 100.00% 98.9%024184 $525,000 - 1 - 95.6%024450 $395,000 -73.40% 1 0.00% 99.0%024464 $192,000 - 1 - 98.5%024483 $810,000 - 1 - 95.3%34824551 $274,000 27.74% 1 0.00% 99.6%024556 $297,000 - 1 - 95.8%1724557 $45,000 - 1 - 100.0%39825411 $157,900 - 47 - 96.3%8225422 $166,200 - 15 - 95.3%6925427 $122,400 - 10 - 100.1%4425434 $46,700 - 3 - 91.5%13726241 $175,000 - 1 - 89.7%43326260 $365,000 89.61% 1 -50.00% 97.3%6426283 $49,900 - 1 - 100.0%6726287 $260,000 - 1 - 92.9%426301 $59,900 139.60% 1 0.00% 97.2%8726425 $86,500 189.30% 1 0.00% 100.0%1926525 $129,000 84.55% 2 100.00% 94.6%259

90

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Local Report

Others

Zip Code Average Price

Data by Zip Codes

Price Change(1 Year)

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

(1 Year)

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)26547 $145,000 - 1 - 93.5%826764 $139,000 42.86% 4 0.00% 95.7%9326807 $111,800 25.48% 3 -57.14% 93.2%28126884 $71,000 - 1 - 90.0%528

91