The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates

How Do We Make Sense of it All?

Patrick J. Kelly

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

• Federal Gainful Employment

• Effective utilization of federal SLDS grants

• College attainment/completion goals – state retention of graduates and economic returns

• Increased focus on “credentials of value” – the attainment of credentials of less than two-years in length (primarily) that yield living/competitive wages

• Meeting employment demand in key areas – e.g. health, education, STEM, trades

• Increasing need for employment outcomes data to make the case for continued investment (state and federal policymaking environments)

Environmental Pressures

The Data are Simple

• Employed – record in the database (excludes self employed, military, and employed out-of-state)

• Earnings

• Industry of Employment

• Region of Employment

Employment/Wage Records

Data Available Quarterly

• Completions

• Level of Award (Certificate, Associates, Bachelor’s Masters, Doctorate, Professional)

• CIP Code of Award – Field of Study

• Continued Enrollment

Institution Records

Data Available by Term

LinkSSN

• What percentage of the graduates are employed in-state – by level and type of award?

• Are the graduates employed in the region in which they graduate?

• What are their quarterly earnings?

• What industries are the employed in? (only relevant in a few fields)

• What percentage continue to enroll/persist in postsecondary education?

Major Questions Answered

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (United States)(Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Residents Who Earned Graduate/ Professional Degrees)

Employment Outcomes Metrics/

UI Data Match

AgeSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)

STEM

Health

Business and Communications

Psychology and Social Sciences

Liberal Arts

Education

• State brain drain. Is the state retaining the graduates it produces? How is it changing over time? (the impact on the degree and attainment goals of the state).

• State-level supply and demand. What is the employment status of graduates in key areas of demand for the state? E.g. health and STEM fields, certain trades. Don’t fall into the trap of overly detailed program-to-occupation supply and demand studies.

• Regional supply and demand. Are institutions producing graduates that meet local employer needs? What are the employment status and wages of the graduates they produce?

• Information for students and families. What programs provide the highest wages in the short-run? What programs are more likely to require continued education upon completion?

Most Effective Uses of the Data

• Small numbers of graduates for many programs

• It is very difficult to calculate the “value added” by institution – i.e. the likely employment and wages of students had they not completed their college credentials

• The state economy treats graduates from some institutions better than graduates from others (with the same credentials) – the “prestige” factor

• Institutions serving large numbers of place-bound students are victims of their local economy (e.g. a part of the state that has low wages relative to other parts of the state)

• The difficult balance between directing students into programs with competitive wages and providing student choice

Institutional Accountability (Difficult at Best)

• Voluntary participation of 20 institutions – represented by nearly all sectors

• Pilot a few employment outcomes metrics using the match between graduate student unit records and the state unemployment insurance (UI) databases

• Data Captured: Employment, continued enrollment, and wages one and five years after graduation (by level and field of study)

• Documentation of the results, barriers, what the data tell us, what they don’t, and the most responsible/effective uses of the data in policy and practice

Gates Foundation Voluntary Metrics Project

Context

Why Indiana?

Career and training opportunities associated with:

• Levels of education that are greater than high school and less than a bachelor’s degree.

• Typically requiring undergraduate postsecondary certificates, certifications, associates degrees.

Focus of IndianaSkills.com

Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey

Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level (2005-09)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

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2,815 2,6113,085

1,127

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Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage (2010)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

24.9

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22.9

22.8

22.7

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20.2

20.2

19.9

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18.9

18.6

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17.9

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16.7

16.5

15.9

15.6

15.5

15.4

14.6

14.6

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13.7

13.7

13.7

13.7

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11.8

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Change in Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage – Since 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Supply DemandInformation and Analysis Imposed –

A “Study”

Employers – “I’ve been telling you this for years, we can’t find people with the skills we need”

Education/Training Providers – “This is great information but you’re asking us to cut programs that generate revenue, restructure/change faculty resources, add programs that cost more to provide, and change student choice?”

Policymakers – “Interesting report but the college in my district doesn’t like it”

Potential Students – “I have no clue the report even exists, and wouldn’t read it if I did”

Information Made Accessible – Creating an Environment for Change

Information

Students Employers

Providers Policymakers

Access to Data and Information that Inform Users and Generates the

Public Will for Change

• Job seekers find career opportunities and short term training programs that best match their skills and interests, are in high demand, with competitive wages.

• Employers learn a great deal more about the occupations they are hiring for, the skills and credentials they should be requiring, and the wages being paid to similar employees around the state.

• Students become better informed about short-term training programs that lead to gainful employment in the state and regions in which they live.

Website Designed to Help:

• General information about occupations – U.S. Department of Labor, MyNextMove.org, MySkillsMyFuture.org, Bureau of Labor Statistics, O’net

• Real-time data on occupation demand – Burning Glass

• Status of recent college graduates – Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System (IWIS).

Data Sources

Most Job Postings for Sub-Baccalaureate Occupations(Source: Burning Glass)

1,829 1,908 1,962 2,089 2,100 2,140 2,186 2,212 2,221 2,334 2,338 2,428 2,491 2,500 2,512 2,536 2,541

2,826 3,104

3,358 3,460

3,935 4,042

4,304 4,523 4,609 4,837

5,079 5,097

8,198 11,501

11,952 13,059

14,938 17,374

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Receptionists and Information ClerksPersonal Financial Advisors

Production Workers, All OtherCooks, Restaurant

Health Technologists and Technicians, All OtherAutomotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

Insurance Sales AgentsJanitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All OtherBookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

CashiersMerchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers

Food Service ManagersComputer User Support Specialists

TellersFirst-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers

Industrial Production ManagersStock Clerks and Order Fillers

Nursing AssistantsFirst-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational NursesOffice Clerks, General

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, HandGeneral and Operations Managers

Secretaries and Administrative AssistantsExecutive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving WorkersLight Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

Maintenance and Repair Workers, GeneralCustomer Service Representatives

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales WorkersSales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing

Registered NursesRetail Salespersons

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Most Requested/Required Certifications(Source: Burning Glass)

167169174186194195200201210214230241249300329335338376379418452461489505511557563586

8431,118

1,9622,0392,077

2,1937,528

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

SERIES 7HOME HEALTH AIDE

INDIANA CERTIFIED NURSE AIDEREGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION ADMINISTRATOR

FIRST AID CPR AEDFORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATION

REGISTERED RESPIRATORY THERAPISTINSURANCE LICENSE

CERTIFIED A+ TECHNICIANADVANCED CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT (ACLS) CERTIFICATION

REGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNICIANCERTIFIED SURGICAL TECHNOLOGIST

CERTIFIED PHARMACY TECHNICIANCOMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE

PHLEBOTOMY CERTIFICATIONBASIC CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT CERTIFICATION

CERTIFIED MEDICAL ASSISTANTREGISTERED NURSE

INSURANCE LICENSECDL CLASS A

SERIES 6LICENSED VOCATIONAL NURSE (LVN)

AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATIONFIRST AID CPR AED

COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSECERTIFIED OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY ASSISTANT

FORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATIONFIRST AID CPR AED

AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATIONFIRST AID CPR AED

CDL CLASS ACERTIFIED NURSING ASSISTANT

COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSELICENSED PRACTICAL NURSE (LPN)

REGISTERED NURSE

Status of Recent College Graduates(Source: Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System)

4,521

465

3,665

391

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Graduates from 2008-09 to

2009-10

Continued Education

Employed in Indiana

Not Employed, Self Employed,

Employed Out of State

31,856

56,200

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Average Earnings One Year After Graduation

Average Earnings for All Registered Nurses

Example – Registered Nurses

Evansville

Indianapolis

Fort Wayne

South BendGary

Bloomington

Lafayette

Richmond

Terre Haute

New Albany

Columbus

Data and Information Available by Region

Additional Features• “Top 10 Lists” – e.g. Occupations with greatest

demand, highest earnings, highest percentage of employability, most requested certifications by Indiana employers, most requested specialized skills by Indiana employers, etc.

• Job Description Creator – an easy-to-use tool that enables employers to generate job descriptions for occupations they are hiring for – utilizing the data and information on the website (e.g. typical level of education required, certifications associated with the occupation, wages earned by Indiana employees, etc.)

Add Screenshots of IndianaSkills.com