the face and wallet behind the suitcase assessing the ......3,012 average daily hotel population...

The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase:

Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Locations

Laura Schewel

Founder and Chief Executive Officer,

StreetLight Data

Alameda, CA

Holly Yonosko

Director, Retail Consulting

American Express

New York, NY

Robert Welch

President

Synergos Technologies, Inc.

Austin, TX

Brian J. SchumacherICSC Research Connections Conference Program Planning Committee

Senior Manager, Real Estate Research

Chico’s FAS, Inc.

Fort Myers, FL

The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase:

Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Markets

� Americans are on the move throughout the year:

o Memorial Day: 36.1 million

o July 4th: 41.0 million

o Labor Day: 34.1 million

o Thanksgiving: 43.4 million

o Winter holidays: 94.5 million

Everyone loves a vacation . . .

* Those traveling 50+ miles; source: AAA, Nov. 2013

** source: US Travel Association

� This isn’t only an American phenomenon. In 2013 alone,

69.6 million international visitors came to the U.S.**

� These are big numbers – and they’re growing:

o The domestic figures above are each y-o-y increases of between 1.5% - 2%*

o The International visitor count is projected to increase to 81 million by 2016**

Research Connections 2014

Top Leisure Activities for U.S. Travelers*

1 Visiting relatives

2 Shopping

3 Visiting friends

4 Dining

Proving once and for all that we care more about shopping than

about having friends or eating to sustain life itself. . . .

* source: U.S. Travel Association, March 2014

. . . and they love to shop while on vacation.

� According to the U.S. Travel Association, shopping as a planned activity

is included in 30% of all domestic trips – generating $94B in retail

expenditure!

� In fact, shopping is one of the primary activities for travelers


$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

US

$ M

illi

on

s

Retail Spending by Travelers

Retail Spending by Tourists Over Time

Aside from dips during Recession periods, retail spending by

tourists has been on an upward trajectory.

‘Retail Spending’ is defined as non-food, non-lodging, non-travel retail spending by people who travel for any reason

* source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 2014


Tackling the Tourist Market

So how do we assess markets where the majority of

your customers live hundreds of miles away?

How much will these visitors effectively increase the

population of the area’s customer base?

How much are they likely to spend?

And what will they spend it on?


Our Panel . . .


Robert WelchPopStats

Holly YonoskoAmerican Express

Laura SchewelStreetLight Data

Definition – Tourist/Visitor


A person who arrives in a locale for a short

duration, typically seeking entertainment or to

socialize with others.

Las Vegas, NV (S Las Vegas Blvd & Tropicana)


� Given a one mile radius

� Household population

3,012

� Average daily hotel

population 84,218

Issues


� Proxies

� Seasonality

� Economics

– Origination

– Length of stay

– “Household” size

– Spending power

Proxies


� Airport deplanements– Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov)

� Hotel occupancies– Smith Travel Research (www.str.com)

� Anchors– CVB (www.cvent.com)

– Conventions (www.eventsinamerica.com)

– Fairs (www.craftlister.com)

– Attractions (www.iaapa.org)

Seasonality


Key industries such as

hospitality and retail can

reveal seasonality in an

area.

www.bls.gov

Economics


� American Travel Survey (BTS)

� National Household Travel Survey (DOT)

� State of the American Traveler Survey (Private)


Where do people tourists go?


Turning Data Exhaust into Tourist Insights

Tourist Behaviors


Example 1: Sanibel Shopping Center

Shopping Center


Shoppers by Home State

In State = ~75%

Color Range

2 - 5%

1 - 2%

0.5 - 1%

0.1 - 0.5%

V. low


Center vs. All of Sanibel: Home State

Color Meaning

Sanibel

higher than

shopping

center

Sanibel

slightly higher

than shopping

center

Similar

Shopping

Center Higher

than Sanibel


Top MSAs as Percent Total Shoppers

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

Punta Gorda, FL

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

St. Louis, MO-IL

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN

Columbus, OH

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL

Rochester, NY

Ann Arbor, MI

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

Richmond, VA

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

Pittsburgh, PA

Madison, WI

Cleveland-Elyria, OH

Fort Myers (local)

is 41%


Deep Dive on Home ZIPs for 2 MSAs

Top 10 Minneapolis ZIPs

ZIP % Visitors who Live Here

55127 0.22%

54016 0.19%

55038 0.19%

55126 0.17%

55073 0.17%

55419 0.16%

55110 0.16%

55032 0.15%

55417 0.14%

55112 0.14%

2 Richmond VA ZIPs Dominate

ZIP % Visitors who Live Here

23188 0.47%

23226 0.42%


Possible Explanation: Income

63

53

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Thousands

Compare Median HH Incomes for these ZIPs

Minneapolis Richmond

14%

17%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

% Households in these ZIPs with greater than $150k/year income

Minneapolis Richmond


Vince Lombardi: Presumably No Locals


Top States for Rest Stoppers

Color Range

20+% (NJ = 66%)

10 - 20%

2 - 10%

<2%

V. low


Weaknesses of Our Approach

1. Long-term tourists

2. International Tourists

3. Stores that are very

close together or

small

4. Manhattan


Other Interesting Tourist Analyses

1. Airport or hotel tagging

2. Tourists looking at

billboards

3. Routes for car-based

tourists

4. Light up a 1km grid of the

city by where the most

tourists are

5. Audience question: what

do you want to know?

• ([email protected])


Questions?

the face and wallet behind the suitcase assessing the ......3,012 average daily hotel population...

Documents