the evolving and growing eu berry sector by rabobank
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The evolving and growing EU berry sector
Cindy van Rijswick
Burgeoning & blossoming
Berries actually show that this is not true!
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A common thought:
“healthy food is never tasty and tasty food is never healthy”
Source: Rabobank, 2015
Berry market will grow at least 7% a year, strawberries 1-‐2%
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EU consumption of fresh berries is outpacing total fruit consumption
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
f
2017f
2018
f
2019
f
2020
f
Inde
x, 200
4=10
0
Fruit Blueberries Strawberries Raspberries
Source: Rabobank calculations based on Euromonitor, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, 2016. Forecast based on polynomial trend forecasting.
Various drivers will further boost the sector
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Opportunities
Better varieties, planting materials
Extension of seasons
Vertical cooperation
Competition
Sustainability, resources: water, chemical use
International trade
Quality
Category management
Investment capital
Threats
International trade
Quality
Pests
Northern EU countries lead the pack in consumption
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Huge differences within the EU in berry consumption growth rates
-‐2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
EU UK
German
y
Fran
ce
Spain
Italy
Nethe
rland
s
Belgium
Den
mark
Swed
en
Poland
Czec
h Re
p.
CAGR %, 2
010-‐15
Blueberries Strawberries Fruit
Source: Euromonitor, 2016.
EU berry patch will change
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Strawberries still dominant in EU berry patch (volume-‐based, 2015)
Source: Rabobank estimate, 2016.
Per capita consumption
Strawberries
Raspberries
Blueberries
Other
Future berry patch
The US fresh berry market has also risen and broadened
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US consumption of fresh berries
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
million pounds
Strawberries Highbush blueberries Raspberries Blackberries
90% 76%
7% 15%
2% 5%
1% 4%
Source: USDA (NASS, ERS & FAS), Rabobank, 2015
Organic berry market is a rapidly growing niche
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Organic berries: 34 percent growth!
Production of organic berries in Eastern Europe, Germany, Spain
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Area of bush berries in the EU
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
Poland
Lith
uania
Spain
German
y
Esto
nia
Bulgaria
Hun
gary
Czec
h rep.
Italy
ha
2008 2013
Source: AMI, 2015.
International trade and local production are inextricable
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Some of the new kids on the block
Chile will remain a strong global blueberry player
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0102030405060708090100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thou
sand
tonn
es
Chile (LH-‐axis) Argentina (LH-‐axis)
S.Africa (RH-‐axis) Peru (RH-‐axis)
Southern Hemisphere blueberry exports
Sources: Rabobank 2016, based on UN-‐Comtrade, FAOSTAT, Chilean Blueberry Committee.
Regional EU sourcing is growing faster than global sourcing
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0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thou
sand
tonn
es
Thou
sand
tonn
es
EU external trade EU internal global trade
Global blueberry trade versus EU internal trade and EU external imports
Sources: Rabobank 2016, based on UN-‐Comtrade, FAOSTAT and EUROSTAT.
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Local or imported berries?
Source: Rabobank, 2015
Quality has increasingly become a differentiator in strawberries
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thou
sand
tonn
es
Thou
sand
tonn
es
Netherlands Morocco Spain
Strawberry exports compared
Sources: Rabobank 2016, based on UN-‐Comtrade
USD 1.99/kg
USD 2.18/kg
USD 5.74/kg
New (increasingly private) varieties and more capital-‐intense production systems are changing berry production
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EU raspberry and blackberry sector are still in transformation
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Thou
sand
tonn
es
ha
Netherlands (LH-‐axis) UK (RH-‐axis)
Raspberry production in the UK and the Netherlands
Sources: DEFRA, 2015 and CBS, 2016.
Spain, Portugal and Morocco are quickly expanding production
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Raspberry and blackberry exports
Sources: UN-Comtrade, 2016.
And the winners are…
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1Sizeable (international) year-‐round
fresh berry packers/marketers: < 15 suppliers to EU food retail
chains
Players that cooperate vertically
Small growers that focus on organic or
niche berries
Sizeable and sustainable quality-‐focused breeders, propagators and
growers
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Conclusions
Ongoing investments to increase efficiency and sustainability : new varieties, substrates, alternative crop protection, mechanisation
EU consumption growth of strawberries ca. 1%, other berries > 7% , but likely to be further propelled
Production of local (efficiently-‐produced & high quality or niche) as well as imported berries viable in EU: production will remain very diverse
Competition will increase, but (in most weeks of the year) market will be able to absorb production increase, as long as quality is all right
There is a shift in the industry playing field towards more vertical integration and larger players
How is Rabobank involved in the berry sector?
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Rabobank does not have pots of gold… but is one of the world’s leading F&A banks
• Global F&A lending: > EUR92 bn• International network in 42
countries• All-‐finance partner for berry
growers and packers in the Netherlands, California, Australia
• Global financing of large packers, marketers, distributors
• Large F&A network, F&A knowledge base
Banking with food & agribusinessknowledge
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Rabobank’s Global Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory team
Grains andOilseeds
F&A SupplyChains
Animal Protein
Beverages Dairy Farm Inputs SugarConsumer
FoodsFresh Produce
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