THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL STRATEGY.STRATEGY.

Securing European Influence in a Changing Securing European Influence in a Changing World.World.

EU CENTRE, EU CENTRE, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORENATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE

August, 22 2013.August, 22 2013.Dr. David Garcia Cantalapiedra. Dr. David Garcia Cantalapiedra.

Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Spain.Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Spain.

““YOUR LACK OF FAITH IS YOUR LACK OF FAITH IS DISTURBING”DISTURBING”

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

WHY AN EU GRAND WHY AN EU GRAND STARTEGY AND WHY NOW.STARTEGY AND WHY NOW.

RATIONALERATIONALEThe European Council meeting in December next The European Council meeting in December next will include, for the first time in five years, a will include, for the first time in five years, a thematic discussion on defence issues. thematic discussion on defence issues. The The European Council will discuss three clusters of European Council will discuss three clusters of issues. These are:issues. These are:

(a) increasing the effectiveness, visibility and (a) increasing the effectiveness, visibility and impact of CSDP; impact of CSDP;

(b) enhancing the development of defence (b) enhancing the development of defence capabilities; and,capabilities; and,

(c) strengthening Europe’s defence industry.(c) strengthening Europe’s defence industry.

INITIATIVEINITIATIVE From this point of view, it is imperative create a From this point of view, it is imperative create a strategic guideline for those issues.strategic guideline for those issues.

This was an initiative This was an initiative of the foreign ministers of of the foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden in July 2012 in Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden in July 2012 in a bid to foster and structure debate about the a bid to foster and structure debate about the European Union’s role as a global actor at a time European Union’s role as a global actor at a time of sweeping international changes”. of sweeping international changes”.

JOINT EFFORTJOINT EFFORT Thus, there has been an effort from 20 European Thus, there has been an effort from 20 European foundations and think-tanks but carried out mainly by foundations and think-tanks but carried out mainly by four of them: International Affairs Institute (IAI ), the four of them: International Affairs Institute (IAI ), the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PI SM), the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PI SM), the Elcano Royal Institute (RIE) and the Swedish Institute of Elcano Royal Institute (RIE) and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI ). International Affairs (UI ).

This effort tries to reflect some debate and, to certain This effort tries to reflect some debate and, to certain point, certain guidance, from the academic and civil point, certain guidance, from the academic and civil society point of view, even from the strategic community. society point of view, even from the strategic community.

VALUABLEVALUABLE

This document is trying to offer a view about the This document is trying to offer a view about the challenges faced by the EU and some ideas about the challenges faced by the EU and some ideas about the role and policies that the EU should undertake to firmly role and policies that the EU should undertake to firmly establish the European Union in that changing establish the European Union in that changing international system. international system.

Thus, the effort to develop a proposal for a “Grand Thus, the effort to develop a proposal for a “Grand Strategy” for the European Union must be recognized Strategy” for the European Union must be recognized and congratulated for the difficulty of the task, the and congratulated for the difficulty of the task, the creation of working groups at this level and the creation of working groups at this level and the conciliation of ideas, mentalities, perceptions, interests conciliation of ideas, mentalities, perceptions, interests and procedures across Europe.and procedures across Europe.

THE EGS: THE EGS: VIRTUES AND PROBLEMS VIRTUES AND PROBLEMS

AS GRAND STRATEGYAS GRAND STRATEGY

GENERAL CONCEPTIONS GENERAL CONCEPTIONS AND AND

STRATEGIC GOALSSTRATEGIC GOALS

GRAND STRATEGYGRAND STRATEGY

““TThe direction and coordination of all he direction and coordination of all resources of the nation, or group of resources of the nation, or group of

states, for obtaining political objective states, for obtaining political objective pursued. A feasible Grand Strategy pursued. A feasible Grand Strategy

must include coordinated mobilization must include coordinated mobilization of the political, economic, military and of the political, economic, military and

moral of the nation”.moral of the nation”.

Characteristics of a Grand Characteristics of a Grand StrategyStrategy

This design pays great attention to the non-This design pays great attention to the non-military aspects of the strategy: economic-military aspects of the strategy: economic-industrial mobilization, internal political culture industrial mobilization, internal political culture and diplomacyand diplomacy– Any strategy must begin with Any strategy must begin with the definition of what the definition of what

constitutes the national interest.constitutes the national interest. – Security policy, military and defense should be anchored in Security policy, military and defense should be anchored in

the essential intereststhe essential interests. . – The choice of a policy becomes even more important because The choice of a policy becomes even more important because

all interests are not actually permanent. all interests are not actually permanent.

Kennedy, Paul (ed). Kennedy, Paul (ed). Grand Strategies in War and Grand Strategies in War and PeacePeace. Yale Un. Press. New Haven. 1991. pp 4-5. Yale Un. Press. New Haven. 1991. pp 4-5

Structure of the EGS reportStructure of the EGS report

An introduction and a chapter for Values An introduction and a chapter for Values and Interests. Both offer really a world and Interests. Both offer really a world vision that is necessary for a real Grand vision that is necessary for a real Grand Strategy. Strategy.

Then, the largest part and the core of the Then, the largest part and the core of the report, Strategic Interests.report, Strategic Interests.

Finally, a part related to Capabilities and Finally, a part related to Capabilities and Instruments.Instruments.

EGS as Grand StrategyEGS as Grand Strategy Taking into account this, and according to the statement Taking into account this, and according to the statement delivers in the executive summary and the introduction, delivers in the executive summary and the introduction, the report defines the interests and structures the EU the report defines the interests and structures the EU vision and mission, focusing in all the aspects in strategy vision and mission, focusing in all the aspects in strategy to obtain 3 main aims: peace, well-being of the to obtain 3 main aims: peace, well-being of the population and shared values including human rights, population and shared values including human rights, freedom, equality, non-discrimination, democracy and freedom, equality, non-discrimination, democracy and the rule of law.the rule of law.

Thus, the EGS seems to comply the structure of a Thus, the EGS seems to comply the structure of a Grand Strategy or his guidelines. However, the problem Grand Strategy or his guidelines. However, the problem rest in the content of some arguments and concepts that rest in the content of some arguments and concepts that it develops or, in some cases, do not really develop.it develops or, in some cases, do not really develop.

ANALYSISANALYSIS The languageThe language: ins and outs: ins and outs

1.The EU and the International System1.The EU and the International System– EU World View: MultipolarityEU World View: Multipolarity– EU identity: Economic block-community of valuesEU identity: Economic block-community of values– Goals: peace, EU population well being and shared Goals: peace, EU population well being and shared

values values – Value-based InterestsValue-based Interests

2. Geopolitical/Geo-economic Vision:2. Geopolitical/Geo-economic Vision:– Strategic Neighbourhood Strategic Neighbourhood

3. Security conception: 3. Security conception: – Comprehensive Security and Comprehensive Comprehensive Security and Comprehensive

ApproachApproach

LanguageLanguage The language and conceptions used The language and conceptions used commonly and conceptually in EU commonly and conceptually in EU “doctrinal” language has almost “doctrinal” language has almost disappeared from the report: United disappeared from the report: United Nations (2), normative power (1), civil Nations (2), normative power (1), civil power, soft power, human security and power, soft power, human security and Effective Multilateralism (0).Effective Multilateralism (0).

However it has adopted a “realist” However it has adopted a “realist” language and concepts as multipolarity.language and concepts as multipolarity.

1.The EU and the 1.The EU and the International SystemInternational System

EU World View: EU World View: MultipolarityMultipolarity

‘‘World order’’ as “the regimes of values, morals, World order’’ as “the regimes of values, morals, and rights that extend to all mankind and infuse and rights that extend to all mankind and infuse

the international order with a sense of justice and the international order with a sense of justice and purpose. It connotes the complex of Western purpose. It connotes the complex of Western liberal international law and economics that is liberal international law and economics that is currently institutionalized through international currently institutionalized through international

organizations, like the United Nations”. organizations, like the United Nations”.

The Anarchical SocietyThe Anarchical Society

Hedley BullHedley Bull

International System, regimes and International System, regimes and “Democratic Peace”“Democratic Peace”

In the report still could be envisaged (and running In the report still could be envisaged (and running underneath all the report) an unconscious vision of a underneath all the report) an unconscious vision of a favorable system that saw the birth of the EU in a favorable system that saw the birth of the EU in a western liberal order (as Headly Bull said in his classical western liberal order (as Headly Bull said in his classical The Anarchical SocietyThe Anarchical Society) under the US leadership and ) under the US leadership and then the US Unipolarity, then the US Unipolarity,

But there is a realist assumptions about the current But there is a realist assumptions about the current dynamics and actors, and a disputable idea about dynamics and actors, and a disputable idea about multipolarity (in real terms or as useful theoric concept) multipolarity (in real terms or as useful theoric concept) than the report itself deployed in some points. than the report itself deployed in some points.

Saying “Securing European Influence in a Changing Saying “Securing European Influence in a Changing World”, the case is not anymore to march on Paris or World”, the case is not anymore to march on Paris or Berlin, the case is who is marching onto us.Berlin, the case is who is marching onto us.

International System, regimes and International System, regimes and “Democratic Peace” (II)“Democratic Peace” (II)

Some of the assertions and assumptions in the report Some of the assertions and assumptions in the report on Human Rights, values, rule of law, democracy, on Human Rights, values, rule of law, democracy, stability and cooperation, are more recognizable 20-30 stability and cooperation, are more recognizable 20-30 years ago more than now. years ago more than now.

However, his reaffirmation seems to be directed to a However, his reaffirmation seems to be directed to a “soft” recognition about the decline of his supremacy in “soft” recognition about the decline of his supremacy in the international system. the international system.

International System, regimes and International System, regimes and “Democratic Peace” (III)“Democratic Peace” (III)

From this point of view, if there is really a multipolar From this point of view, if there is really a multipolar system, then these assumptions should be changed: system, then these assumptions should be changed:

they could be the same affirmed values than 20-30 years they could be the same affirmed values than 20-30 years ago, but the international system is a less liberal by far ago, but the international system is a less liberal by far now, even recognized by the report in several points. now, even recognized by the report in several points.

Still, if the structure of the international system is still Still, if the structure of the international system is still dubious, then there exists a clear double and dubious, then there exists a clear double and incompatible narrative in the report with grave incompatible narrative in the report with grave consequences in terms of misperception and consequences in terms of misperception and mismanagement in EU strategic vision.mismanagement in EU strategic vision.

Misperceptions, multipolarity and EU Misperceptions, multipolarity and EU international position.international position.

It seems that the EU perception of a multipolar system It seems that the EU perception of a multipolar system rests more on the belief about the decline of the United rests more on the belief about the decline of the United States than for a EU decline and the reduction of his role States than for a EU decline and the reduction of his role and weight in the “Unipolarity Club”, as much as at and weight in the “Unipolarity Club”, as much as at global level; it could be also added the idea of creating global level; it could be also added the idea of creating an ”identity” of his own, for opposition to the US’.an ”identity” of his own, for opposition to the US’.

(The “Unipolarity Club” could be formed by the US and his closest allies in (The “Unipolarity Club” could be formed by the US and his closest allies in Europe, Asia and America: probably the NATO states, EU states, Israel, Europe, Asia and America: probably the NATO states, EU states, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zeland, Canada and maybe some Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zeland, Canada and maybe some others)others)

Misperceptions, multipolarity and EU Misperceptions, multipolarity and EU international position. (II)international position. (II)

The EU (the report) accepts a redistribution of power The EU (the report) accepts a redistribution of power assuming the reduction of the US position, but not the assuming the reduction of the US position, but not the EU´s, within the dynamic of the rising of other great EU´s, within the dynamic of the rising of other great powers. powers.

This reduction in US power regarding these “new” This reduction in US power regarding these “new” powers and to the EU, lead us to establish necessarily a powers and to the EU, lead us to establish necessarily a multipolar system, where the distribution of relative multipolar system, where the distribution of relative power left the EU in a “better relative position” regarding power left the EU in a “better relative position” regarding the US at global level, reinforced by the reduction of the the US at global level, reinforced by the reduction of the US relative position globally regarding to the rising US relative position globally regarding to the rising powers. powers.

Misperceptions, multipolarity and EU Misperceptions, multipolarity and EU international position. (III)international position. (III)

But this is an illusion. The EU position in terms of But this is an illusion. The EU position in terms of relative power also has been reduced, and then the EU relative power also has been reduced, and then the EU relative position is worse in any of the categories used relative position is worse in any of the categories used here, that is, regarding the US and related to the rising here, that is, regarding the US and related to the rising powers. powers.

The question is why the report (and politically the EU) The question is why the report (and politically the EU) could accept this idea. It could be contested in the case could accept this idea. It could be contested in the case of US position (despite real certain relative decline), but of US position (despite real certain relative decline), but it is almost an acceptation of a it is almost an acceptation of a fatum fatalemfatum fatalem by the EU. by the EU.

POSSIBLE CONCLUSIONPOSSIBLE CONCLUSION

EU “RELATIVE DECLINE”?EU “RELATIVE DECLINE”?

Possible conclusion: EU “relative Decline”?. Possible conclusion: EU “relative Decline”?. It seems that the EU is more prone to believe in a multipolar It seems that the EU is more prone to believe in a multipolar system for maintaining a role among the great powers as system for maintaining a role among the great powers as such, than for the belief of a re-definition of the international such, than for the belief of a re-definition of the international system in less favorable terms, as a case of system in less favorable terms, as a case of BipolarityBipolarity, and a , and a more marginal role than during the Cold War. more marginal role than during the Cold War.

This is a trend entrenched in the belief that the ideational This is a trend entrenched in the belief that the ideational structure of the system and the “recognition” by other powers structure of the system and the “recognition” by other powers of that EU position really will create such position.of that EU position really will create such position.

The EU does not state “The EU will promote…”.etc but The EU does not state “The EU will promote…”.etc but “Securing European Influence in a Changing World”: the case “Securing European Influence in a Changing World”: the case is not anymore to march on Paris or Berlin, or “spread the is not anymore to march on Paris or Berlin, or “spread the Word” short of vision; the case is who is marching onto us.Word” short of vision; the case is who is marching onto us.

If anyIf any, it would be a nuclear multipolarity, , it would be a nuclear multipolarity, and this is also and this is also absent from the report and main concernsabsent from the report and main concerns

OPTIONSOPTIONS

LIVING BETWEEN BALANCING AND LIVING BETWEEN BALANCING AND BANDWAGONINGBANDWAGONING

OPTIONSOPTIONS The EU has been developing the CFSP and the The EU has been developing the CFSP and the CSDP, among other reasons as EU periphery CSDP, among other reasons as EU periphery security, for balancing (although an internal security, for balancing (although an internal balancing) mainly the United States: it is easier balancing) mainly the United States: it is easier to say the world is multipolar and using it as the to say the world is multipolar and using it as the main reason to strenghten CSDP. At the same main reason to strenghten CSDP. At the same time it has been maintaining a bandwagoning time it has been maintaining a bandwagoning posture through NATO/US when needed.posture through NATO/US when needed.

The EU/Member States has responded to the The EU/Member States has responded to the Alliance Security dilemma’s entrapment-Alliance Security dilemma’s entrapment-abandonment dynamic abandonment dynamic

The integration of the European The integration of the European defense industry defense industry

On July 24, the European Commission presented On July 24, the European Commission presented reform plans for the European defense sector. The reform plans for the European defense sector. The report points out that EU countries still spend more than report points out that EU countries still spend more than 75 percent of their investment for defense equipment 75 percent of their investment for defense equipment nationally and that Europe has 16 different frigate types nationally and that Europe has 16 different frigate types compared to one type in the United States. The compared to one type in the United States. The European Commission warned that the fragmentation in European Commission warned that the fragmentation in the European defense industry is threatening Europe's the European defense industry is threatening Europe's competitiveness in defense markets and capabilities in competitiveness in defense markets and capabilities in the field since defense spending has dropped in the the field since defense spending has dropped in the European Union while considerably increasing in the European Union while considerably increasing in the United States, Russia and China.United States, Russia and China.

EU vs. Member States.EU vs. Member States.

Countries still prefer to procure their hardware nationally Countries still prefer to procure their hardware nationally and want to keep investment in the country to sustain their and want to keep investment in the country to sustain their domestic defense industries. domestic defense industries.

This was highlighted in 2012 when Germany blocked the This was highlighted in 2012 when Germany blocked the merger of two defense industry heavyweights, British BAE merger of two defense industry heavyweights, British BAE Systems and Franco-German EADS, because Berlin Systems and Franco-German EADS, because Berlin reportedly believed it would lose influence in the new reportedly believed it would lose influence in the new company since most operations would be located in the company since most operations would be located in the

United Kingdom and France.United Kingdom and France.  

WHERE WE EUROPEANS WHERE WE EUROPEANS ARE?ARE?

VALUES AND INTERESTSVALUES AND INTERESTS

EU identityEU identity

Economic block-community of Economic block-community of valuesvalues

Definition of EuropeDefinition of EuropeThe European Union is defined as an economic The European Union is defined as an economic bloc, with a large population and the EU/Member bloc, with a large population and the EU/Member States duality. To define Values and Interests, it is States duality. To define Values and Interests, it is necessary to talk beyond the economic and necessary to talk beyond the economic and structure realm, although there is also a mention to structure realm, although there is also a mention to a community of values.a community of values.

66 “European vital interests” identified in the report. “European vital interests” identified in the report.

These will be secured by 11 strategic objectives. These will be secured by 11 strategic objectives.

The first “programmatic” problem is the very The first “programmatic” problem is the very beginning of the introduction. Furthermore, it beginning of the introduction. Furthermore, it repeated the same definition included in 2003 ESSrepeated the same definition included in 2003 ESS

VALUES AND INTERESTSVALUES AND INTERESTS

The principal aim of the EU , as the Treaty on European The principal aim of the EU , as the Treaty on European Union asserts, is:Union asserts, is:– to promote peace, to promote peace, – the well-being of its peoples and the well-being of its peoples and – its shared values including human rights, freedom, equality, non-its shared values including human rights, freedom, equality, non-

discrimination, democracy and the rule of law. discrimination, democracy and the rule of law.

Since peace and values-based well-being at home can Since peace and values-based well-being at home can only be secured by means of an ambitious international only be secured by means of an ambitious international agenda, this defines its external goals too: agenda, this defines its external goals too: – The EU is under a treaty obligation to base its external action on The EU is under a treaty obligation to base its external action on

the principles that inspired its own creation and to promote its the principles that inspired its own creation and to promote its values abroad.values abroad.

VALUES AND INTERESTSVALUES AND INTERESTS In a heavily Interdependent world where compromise In a heavily Interdependent world where compromise and cooperation with different kinds of partners are even and cooperation with different kinds of partners are even more necessary, an investment in the EU ’s collective more necessary, an investment in the EU ’s collective capacity for global action could help overcome this capacity for global action could help overcome this tensiontension..

Presumed cooperation in the interactions among the Presumed cooperation in the interactions among the actors, when interdependence produces also conflict s actors, when interdependence produces also conflict s and non cooperative actions.and non cooperative actions.

VALUES AND INTERESTSVALUES AND INTERESTS The further development of the internal market would The further development of the internal market would increase the EU ’s capacity to act as a normative and increase the EU ’s capacity to act as a normative and standard-setting power beyond its borders at a time standard-setting power beyond its borders at a time when interdependence is growing and international when interdependence is growing and international norms are under strain. This will require not only a norms are under strain. This will require not only a deepening of internal cooperation deepening of internal cooperation in the neglected in the neglected services and telecommunications sectors, but services and telecommunications sectors, but also also closer ties with partners. closer ties with partners.

These ties can be achieved These ties can be achieved either by exporting the EU either by exporting the EU ’s own rules or by finding alternative routes towards ’s own rules or by finding alternative routes towards regulatory convergence, depending on the partner in regulatory convergence, depending on the partner in question. question. In developing its market and regulations, the In developing its market and regulations, the EU should be transparent, inclusive and vigilant about EU should be transparent, inclusive and vigilant about the external effects of its actions. (Strategic goal 1. the external effects of its actions. (Strategic goal 1. Internal market)Internal market)

VALUES AND INTERESTSVALUES AND INTERESTS The analysis could be realist in terms of “internal The analysis could be realist in terms of “internal balancing”: even though still the report sees the EU as balancing”: even though still the report sees the EU as mainly a normative power, to recognize growing mainly a normative power, to recognize growing interdependence and more anarchy (uncertainty) in the interdependence and more anarchy (uncertainty) in the International System in terms of reduction of ability to International System in terms of reduction of ability to behave according to international rules, is an important behave according to international rules, is an important change although still the only option is cooperation. change although still the only option is cooperation.

The report do not talk about other possible solutions as The report do not talk about other possible solutions as reconsidering the EU external and internal rules in terms reconsidering the EU external and internal rules in terms of stronger and more powerful protection and penalty of stronger and more powerful protection and penalty measures. measures.

In a world in which the behavior of states and states In a world in which the behavior of states and states companies is not to comply and/or is intended to bend the companies is not to comply and/or is intended to bend the international rules, it could be time to change the rules or international rules, it could be time to change the rules or act seemly. act seemly.

THEN WHAT ARE THEN WHAT ARE “EUROPEAN” INTERESTS “EUROPEAN” INTERESTS

AND WHERE….AND WHERE….

EUROPEAN VITAL EUROPEAN VITAL INTERESTSINTERESTS

6 EUROPEAN VITAL INTERESTS6 EUROPEAN VITAL INTERESTS European economic and social development; European economic and social development;

a secure and resilient EU; a secure and resilient EU;

a neighbourhood of democracy, human rights a neighbourhood of democracy, human rights and the rule of law; and the rule of law;

a sustainable environment and access to natural a sustainable environment and access to natural resources; resources;

Minimal constraints on the global flow of people, Minimal constraints on the global flow of people, ideas, goods and services; ideas, goods and services;

Just and effective governance systems at a Just and effective governance systems at a regional and global level.regional and global level.

2. A secure and resilient EU.2. A secure and resilient EU.

No definition of “strengthening social resilience”No definition of “strengthening social resilience”

Mix challenges and security threats: armed aggression, Mix challenges and security threats: armed aggression, state failure, regional conflicts, terrorism, proliferation of state failure, regional conflicts, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organized crime and weapons of mass destruction, organized crime and natural hazards. natural hazards.

Lack of definition of challenges, vulnerabilities, risks, and Lack of definition of challenges, vulnerabilities, risks, and threats.threats.

2. A secure and resilient EU.2. A secure and resilient EU.This is very illustrative as the inability to define clearly This is very illustrative as the inability to define clearly threats, whether deliberate ambiguity due to political threats, whether deliberate ambiguity due to political reasons or because misperception. Other option is the reasons or because misperception. Other option is the consideration of Comprehensive Security and consideration of Comprehensive Security and Comprehensive approach as a general cluster to face Comprehensive approach as a general cluster to face challenges and threats, using, as always referenced, challenges and threats, using, as always referenced, “civil and military means” together. But it not the same a “civil and military means” together. But it not the same a failed state than a WMD threat or use. failed state than a WMD threat or use.

The report seems more worried about to be able to The report seems more worried about to be able to deliver an institutional solution that to identify and solve deliver an institutional solution that to identify and solve the problem. But it not the same the challenge of Climate the problem. But it not the same the challenge of Climate change that the threat of a terrorist group eitherchange that the threat of a terrorist group either

3. A neighbourhood of democracy, 3. A neighbourhood of democracy, human rights and the rule of lawhuman rights and the rule of law

Human rights, the rule of law and democracy are, at the Human rights, the rule of law and democracy are, at the same time, shared European values and same time, shared European values and preconditions preconditions for deepened international cooperation and stability. for deepened international cooperation and stability. This paragraph envisages the concept of This paragraph envisages the concept of Democratic Democratic PeacePeace

This implies that the promotion of European values is the This implies that the promotion of European values is the promotion of European interests, that is, promotion of promotion of European interests, that is, promotion of these values on areas, regions or states that could reject these values on areas, regions or states that could reject them as an imposition; and what is worse, as a them as an imposition; and what is worse, as a precondition to cooperate and for stability!! It means that precondition to cooperate and for stability!! It means that could not exist cooperation without adopt our values; could not exist cooperation without adopt our values; then stability would be widely reduced. then stability would be widely reduced.

3. A neighbourhood of democracy, 3. A neighbourhood of democracy, human rights and the rule of law (II)human rights and the rule of law (II)

Probably other actors’ incentives to do it would be Probably other actors’ incentives to do it would be reduced in cases of non shared values actors. Then how reduced in cases of non shared values actors. Then how to match the necessity for cooperation (Shared values to match the necessity for cooperation (Shared values paragraph) due to a more interdependent world with a paragraph) due to a more interdependent world with a precondition for stability. This could result in less precondition for stability. This could result in less stability, confidence reduction, uncertainty or even stability, confidence reduction, uncertainty or even hostility.hostility.

Any action or policy following this trend could feed not Any action or policy following this trend could feed not only a “security dilemma in ideational terms” but also in only a “security dilemma in ideational terms” but also in power terms if this promotion policy through power terms if this promotion policy through an an investment in the EU ’s collective capacity for global investment in the EU ’s collective capacity for global actionaction, could means an investment on increasing crisis , could means an investment on increasing crisis management (security and defense) capabilities.management (security and defense) capabilities.

5th and 6th Vital Interests.5th and 6th Vital Interests. According to the Executive Summary, in order to secure According to the Executive Summary, in order to secure the vital interests, at home the EU needs: to reduce the the vital interests, at home the EU needs: to reduce the barriers between its internal market and the world beyond barriers between its internal market and the world beyond across all four freedoms – capital, services, people and across all four freedoms – capital, services, people and goods. Its energy market needs to be developed to improve goods. Its energy market needs to be developed to improve efficiency, resilience, independence and sustainability. efficiency, resilience, independence and sustainability.

Trade and innovation are key to sustaining the EU ’s Trade and innovation are key to sustaining the EU ’s societies and its global role, and should be further societies and its global role, and should be further developed by way of beneficial conditions for imports and developed by way of beneficial conditions for imports and exports and enhanced educational and scientific exports and enhanced educational and scientific cooperation programmes beyond its borders. cooperation programmes beyond its borders.

But regarding to 5But regarding to 5thth and 6 and 6thth vital interests this could be vital interests this could be problematic or even dangerous in a multipolar environment:problematic or even dangerous in a multipolar environment:

5. Minimal constraints on the global flow 5. Minimal constraints on the global flow of people, ideas, goods and servicesof people, ideas, goods and services

But the report recognizes a growing interdependence But the report recognizes a growing interdependence and more anarchy (uncertainty) in the International and more anarchy (uncertainty) in the International System in terms of reduction of ability to behave System in terms of reduction of ability to behave according to international rules. according to international rules.

Then Free flow in a situation of mutual recognition, and Then Free flow in a situation of mutual recognition, and free trade, with no mercantilism and hidden free trade, with no mercantilism and hidden protectionism used by some rising powers, could be protectionism used by some rising powers, could be excellent. But this is not the real situation. excellent. But this is not the real situation.

Minimal constraints on the global flow of Minimal constraints on the global flow of people, ideas, goods and services (II)people, ideas, goods and services (II)

There are no comments on tariff barriers, dumping and There are no comments on tariff barriers, dumping and unfair conditions, including problems related to copy rights, unfair conditions, including problems related to copy rights, intellectual property and patens widely used, and unfair intellectual property and patens widely used, and unfair actions in other internal markets related to discriminatory actions in other internal markets related to discriminatory conducts and corruption that makes unfair trade and conducts and corruption that makes unfair trade and avoiding international rules.avoiding international rules.

Still the solution (strategic goal 1) is Still the solution (strategic goal 1) is exporting the EU ’s exporting the EU ’s own rules or by finding alternative routes towards regulatory own rules or by finding alternative routes towards regulatory convergence, depending on the partner in question. convergence, depending on the partner in question. But But other measures could be tariffs and no tariffs measures, other measures could be tariffs and no tariffs measures, retaliatory measures, or higher quality standards, limitations retaliatory measures, or higher quality standards, limitations to takeover in certain strategic companies, etc.to takeover in certain strategic companies, etc.

6. Just and effective governance systems 6. Just and effective governance systems at a regional and global levelat a regional and global level

Effective systems of cooperation and governance at the Effective systems of cooperation and governance at the regional and global levels are critical because regional and global levels are critical because advancing many of the EU ’s principles and shared advancing many of the EU ’s principles and shared values requires cooperation with other international values requires cooperation with other international actors and institutions.actors and institutions. Many of today’s challenges are Many of today’s challenges are emerging at the regional level, which often makes emerging at the regional level, which often makes regional institutions best placed to take effective action.regional institutions best placed to take effective action.

The problem is the asymmetry in governance The problem is the asymmetry in governance mechanisms. Cooperation will not assure the advance of mechanisms. Cooperation will not assure the advance of EU principles and shared values. EU principles and shared values.

Furthermore, uncertainties make governments reluctant Furthermore, uncertainties make governments reluctant to enter into comprehensive agreements that make to enter into comprehensive agreements that make substantial policy substantial policy demands.demands.

Just and effective governance systems at Just and effective governance systems at a regional and global levela regional and global level

To the contrary, if you are in multipolarity To the contrary, if you are in multipolarity and in a position of “relative decline”, and in a position of “relative decline”, probably EU should have to assume no probably EU should have to assume no cooperative behaviour and probably accept cooperative behaviour and probably accept other conditions, precisely not in the vein of other conditions, precisely not in the vein of EU principles and shared values (see Doha EU principles and shared values (see Doha round for instance). round for instance).

INDIA position in the negotiations with the INDIA position in the negotiations with the EU about a free trade agreement. (rejecting EU about a free trade agreement. (rejecting WMD clause)WMD clause)

2. Geopolitical/2. Geopolitical/Geo-economic VisionGeo-economic Vision

STRATEGIC GOALSSTRATEGIC GOALS

11 Strategic Goals 11 Strategic Goals Furthering the internal market Furthering the internal market – Developing the external dimension of internal European policies;Developing the external dimension of internal European policies;– Enhancing energy efficiency and resilience; Enhancing energy efficiency and resilience;

Establishing the neighbourhood as the basis for a global role; Establishing the neighbourhood as the basis for a global role; – Staying the course on EU enlargement; Staying the course on EU enlargement; – Engaging with the strategic neighbourhood; Engaging with the strategic neighbourhood;

Taking comprehensive security responsibility in the strategic Taking comprehensive security responsibility in the strategic neighbourhood; neighbourhood; – Forging a new Atlantic community with the United States; Establishing targeted Forging a new Atlantic community with the United States; Establishing targeted

partnerships; partnerships; – Co-shaping global governance; Co-shaping global governance; – Promoting human development and preventing conflict;Promoting human development and preventing conflict;

Boosting international economic and environmental problem-solving; Boosting international economic and environmental problem-solving;

Anticipating new domains of global action; Linking regional and global Anticipating new domains of global action; Linking regional and global governance.governance.

““STRATEGIC STRATEGIC NEIGHBOURHOOD” NEIGHBOURHOOD”

GEOPOLITICS PLUS GEOPOLITICS PLUS GEOECONOMICS?GEOECONOMICS?

AOI-AORAOI-AOR In today’s multipolar world, the EU is thus situated within an In today’s multipolar world, the EU is thus situated within an ever more complex region – a geopolitical space that ever more complex region – a geopolitical space that includes not only its traditional neighbourhood, comprising includes not only its traditional neighbourhood, comprising states whose geographical proximity connects them to the states whose geographical proximity connects them to the EU, but also broader areas that are functionally linked to EU, but also broader areas that are functionally linked to vital European interests: vital European interests:

The Sahel, the Horn of Africa, The Sahel, the Horn of Africa,

the Middle East, the Middle East,

Central Asia, Central Asia,

the Arctic and the Arctic and

Adjacent sea-lanesAdjacent sea-lanes..

This vision is very interesting because comprises exactly This vision is very interesting because comprises exactly the the US concept of Greater Middle East.US concept of Greater Middle East.

Regional ViewRegional View EU should continue the enlargement process, but change the guiding EU should continue the enlargement process, but change the guiding rationale for relations with its neighbours. It should look on its rationale for relations with its neighbours. It should look on its surroundings as a surroundings as a Strategic NeighbourhoodStrategic Neighbourhood::

Strategic NeighbourhoodStrategic Neighbourhood:: a geopolitical space that includes not a geopolitical space that includes not only its traditional neighbourhood, states whose geographical proximity only its traditional neighbourhood, states whose geographical proximity connects them to the EU , but also broader areas that are functionally connects them to the EU , but also broader areas that are functionally linked to vital European interests.linked to vital European interests.

In this space, In this space, the EU should work in partnership with local the EU should work in partnership with local governments and societies for democratic transition, human rights governments and societies for democratic transition, human rights and free trade and take security responsibilityand free trade and take security responsibility..

This will demand the ability to deploy effective military and civilian This will demand the ability to deploy effective military and civilian capabilities and the political will to use them. capabilities and the political will to use them.

The EU should permit smaller groups of member states to initiate and The EU should permit smaller groups of member states to initiate and implement EU policies, but must sharpen political coordination by implement EU policies, but must sharpen political coordination by strengthening the High Representative’s coordinating power and by strengthening the High Representative’s coordinating power and by developing the role of its external delegations. developing the role of its external delegations.

““Securing European Influence….”Securing European Influence….” The The European Union does not claim to rely principally or European Union does not claim to rely principally or heavily on its ability for power projection. Instead, the EU heavily on its ability for power projection. Instead, the EU prides itself for being a model for prosperous and peaceful prides itself for being a model for prosperous and peaceful reconciliation. Europe ‘leads’ as an example for the rest of reconciliation. Europe ‘leads’ as an example for the rest of the world. There is a powerful logic behind this notion.the world. There is a powerful logic behind this notion.

The problem is that the influence of European leadership The problem is that the influence of European leadership on other countries diminishes rapidly with any increase in on other countries diminishes rapidly with any increase in geographic distance. geographic distance. – Those countries that join the European Union feel the influence Those countries that join the European Union feel the influence

most strongly;most strongly;– those on its borders feel it considerably less; those on its borders feel it considerably less; – and those in other parts of the world hardly realize that such a and those in other parts of the world hardly realize that such a

thing as European leadership exists.thing as European leadership exists.

That is the problem of a lack of Power Projection, and not That is the problem of a lack of Power Projection, and not only in military terms.only in military terms.

Competing visionsCompeting visions There are other strategic visions as the US Pivot or There are other strategic visions as the US Pivot or the “Greater Middle East”, the Russian “Near the “Greater Middle East”, the Russian “Near Abroad” or the Chinese “Strategic Frontier”, but as Abroad” or the Chinese “Strategic Frontier”, but as instruments of power projection or global capacity.instruments of power projection or global capacity.

In the Chinese case, China does not adhere to the In the Chinese case, China does not adhere to the western Westphalian concept of nation states with western Westphalian concept of nation states with stationery borders. Rather, its concept is based on stationery borders. Rather, its concept is based on “strategic frontier” of geopolitical landscape, whose “strategic frontier” of geopolitical landscape, whose flexible territorial borders expands or contracts flexible territorial borders expands or contracts according to a nation’s power projectionaccording to a nation’s power projection

The report also expresses surprisingly ideas of The report also expresses surprisingly ideas of regime change (of course, veiledly) and talks with regime change (of course, veiledly) and talks with non-states actors. non-states actors.

ALLIANCESALLIANCES

If that conception responds to a long term vision, If that conception responds to a long term vision, it is overlapping on areas of interest (and it is overlapping on areas of interest (and friction) with other powers in Middle East-friction) with other powers in Middle East-Persian Gulf, Caucasus-Central Asia or even the Persian Gulf, Caucasus-Central Asia or even the Mediterranean, Sahel-Horn of Africa. Mediterranean, Sahel-Horn of Africa.

In this situation, and from a realist point of view, In this situation, and from a realist point of view, the report faces the necessity to reinforce or the report faces the necessity to reinforce or recreate alliances with the United States or with recreate alliances with the United States or with other members from the former West (Canada, other members from the former West (Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc). Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc).

POWER PROJECTIONPOWER PROJECTION

This is very interesting because the creation or This is very interesting because the creation or recreation of alliances respond to an idea for recreation of alliances respond to an idea for rebalance the system against a hegemonic rebalance the system against a hegemonic challenger, a coalition of states, for security or challenger, a coalition of states, for security or for influence, among others. for influence, among others.

Really, the idea seems to reinforce the former Really, the idea seems to reinforce the former “Unipolarity Club” (the former “West”), and to “Unipolarity Club” (the former “West”), and to accommodate when needed (lack of support or accommodate when needed (lack of support or interest by the United States) to other great interest by the United States) to other great powers as Russia and China. powers as Russia and China.

Strategic FrictionStrategic Friction This posture in vital regions as Middle East-This posture in vital regions as Middle East-Persian Gulf or Caucasus-Central Asia (origin of Persian Gulf or Caucasus-Central Asia (origin of 70% of EU oil imports, counting with imports from 70% of EU oil imports, counting with imports from Russia) is not sustainable, strategically or from a Russia) is not sustainable, strategically or from a resilience point of view: how much resilience the resilience point of view: how much resilience the EU could sustain paying Eur 500-600 billions/year?EU could sustain paying Eur 500-600 billions/year?

The lack of real capacity in the area, as The lack of real capacity in the area, as demonstrate during the Arab Spring and the Syrian demonstrate during the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war, it is a lack of correlation between the Vital civil war, it is a lack of correlation between the Vital Interests, the concept of Strategic Neibourghhood Interests, the concept of Strategic Neibourghhood and the point Capabilities and Instruments.and the point Capabilities and Instruments.

Global viewGlobal view

In linking the EU’s regional and global ambitions, four In linking the EU’s regional and global ambitions, four countries are of particular importance: countries are of particular importance:

the United States, which is the EU ’s only global partner the United States, which is the EU ’s only global partner and with which it should forge a new Atlantic community; and with which it should forge a new Atlantic community;

Turkey, with which an enhanced political partnership Turkey, with which an enhanced political partnership should be agreed even before its EU accession; should be agreed even before its EU accession;

and China and Russia, with which targeted partnerships and China and Russia, with which targeted partnerships should focus on mutual interests.should focus on mutual interests.

Forging a new Atlantic community with the Forging a new Atlantic community with the United StatesUnited States

The U.S.-EU economic relationship dominates the world The U.S.-EU economic relationship dominates the world economy by the sheer size of the combined economies. economy by the sheer size of the combined economies.

The combined population of the United States and the EU The combined population of the United States and the EU members approaches 800 million people who generate a members approaches 800 million people who generate a combined gross domestic product (GDP) that is roughly combined gross domestic product (GDP) that is roughly equivalent to 40% of world GDP in 2010.equivalent to 40% of world GDP in 2010.

2 Combined EU and U.S. world trade accounts for over 2 Combined EU and U.S. world trade accounts for over 47% of all world trade.47% of all world trade.

“ “A New Atlantic community based on the right mix of A New Atlantic community based on the right mix of complementarity and commonality between the two sides, complementarity and commonality between the two sides, the first building block of which should be the timely the first building block of which should be the timely conclusion of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment conclusion of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership” (including Partnership” (including Canada, Mexico and Turkey!!Canada, Mexico and Turkey!!) )

3. Security conception: 3. Security conception: Comprehensive Security and Comprehensive Security and

Comprehensive ApproachComprehensive Approach

PERCEPTIONS, PERCEPTIONS, CHANLLENGES, THREATS CHANLLENGES, THREATS

AND COMPLEXITYAND COMPLEXITY

WHAT ARE THE WHAT ARE THE “EUROPEAN” THREAT “EUROPEAN” THREAT

PERCEPTIONS?PERCEPTIONS?

ARE THEY CONSISTANT ARE THEY CONSISTANT WITH COMPLEX THREAT WITH COMPLEX THREAT

DYNAMIC?DYNAMIC?

22ndnd EU Vital Interest, EU Vital Interest, a secure and resilient EUa secure and resilient EUChallenges and security threats are mixed: armed Challenges and security threats are mixed: armed aggression, state failure, regional conflicts, terrorism, aggression, state failure, regional conflicts, terrorism, proliferation of WMD, organized crime and natural hazards. proliferation of WMD, organized crime and natural hazards.

The 2003 European Security Strategy established clearly a The 2003 European Security Strategy established clearly a difference between Global Challenges and security threats.difference between Global Challenges and security threats.

The 2008 review offered the inclusion of cyber-security, The 2008 review offered the inclusion of cyber-security, energy security and climate change but as security risks. energy security and climate change but as security risks. None of them have been included now.None of them have been included now.

This could be a lack of consensus or a threat misperception This could be a lack of consensus or a threat misperception at the time to face these problems and develop a well-at the time to face these problems and develop a well-focused comprehensive security concept. focused comprehensive security concept.

It is not clear if it is a threat-centered or capabilities-It is not clear if it is a threat-centered or capabilities-centered concept, although the use of a comprehensive centered concept, although the use of a comprehensive approach is expected.approach is expected.

Strategic objective Strategic objective Anticipating new Anticipating new domains of global actiondomains of global action

This point is regarding toThis point is regarding to so-called “new domains” as so-called “new domains” as conventional weapons, WMD, space militarization, and conventional weapons, WMD, space militarization, and cyberspace/cyberwar, cyberspace/cyberwar,

But these areas and their integration, are not discussed in But these areas and their integration, are not discussed in the report. It focused instead on preventive measure the report. It focused instead on preventive measure through legal instruments when the space militarization is in through legal instruments when the space militarization is in progress, nuclear disarmament only has been carried out by progress, nuclear disarmament only has been carried out by US and UK/France, and EU WMD strategy (EU Non US and UK/France, and EU WMD strategy (EU Non Proliferation policy) has not worked properly, about all in Proliferation policy) has not worked properly, about all in Iran’s caseIran’s case

Finally, Cyberspace is absent from the point related to Finally, Cyberspace is absent from the point related to security challenges or threats. It is not seen as a security security challenges or threats. It is not seen as a security threat.threat.

We are not fighting so that We are not fighting so that you will offer us you will offer us

something. something. We are fighting to We are fighting to

eliminate you.eliminate you.

Hussein Massawi, Hussein Massawi, HizbullahHizbullah

LA PROLIFERACIÓN NUCLEARLA PROLIFERACIÓN NUCLEAR

The integration of several of The integration of several of these dynamics is creating…these dynamics is creating…

…….an Offensive-Dominance .an Offensive-Dominance World, and according to World, and according to

Clausewitz….Clausewitz….

Karl von ClausewitzKarl von Clausewitz““The first, the supreme, the most far-The first, the supreme, the most far-

reaching act of judgment that the reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make statesman and commander have to make is to establish by that test the kind of war is to establish by that test the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature.”something that is alien to its nature.”

Source: Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Michael Howardand Peter Paret, editors and translators. (Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press, 1976, p. 88

MAIN PROBLEMMAIN PROBLEM

28 different positions.28 different positions.

Example at high political level-Nuclear Example at high political level-Nuclear Policy-experience on different positions-Policy-experience on different positions-Germany, Holland and Nordics, Austria-Germany, Holland and Nordics, Austria-Then Italy and Turkey- Spain- UK/FranceThen Italy and Turkey- Spain- UK/France

Different Threat Perceptions and security Different Threat Perceptions and security interests.interests.

Security conceptionSecurity conception

Comprehensive SecurityComprehensive Security: : there is no definition of the there is no definition of the concept or content in the concept or content in the

reportreport

Security Threats or Challenges?Security Threats or Challenges? In this vein the second EU Vital Interest, In this vein the second EU Vital Interest, a secure and a secure and resilient EUresilient EU, security challenges with clear security threats , security challenges with clear security threats are erroneously mixed: armed aggression, state failure, are erroneously mixed: armed aggression, state failure, regional conflicts, terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of regional conflicts, terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organized crime and natural hazards. mass destruction, organized crime and natural hazards.

This is a real threat misperception at the time to face these This is a real threat misperception at the time to face these problems and develop a well-focused comprehensive problems and develop a well-focused comprehensive security concept. It is not clear either if the Comprehensive security concept. It is not clear either if the Comprehensive Security concept (and the Comprehensive Approach) are a Security concept (and the Comprehensive Approach) are a threat-centered or capabilities-centered concept. threat-centered or capabilities-centered concept.

Moreover, it seems to relinquish real operative capability Moreover, it seems to relinquish real operative capability (and even political) on NATO. (and even political) on NATO.

Security OverviewSecurity OverviewThe main problem is not only to define the structure of the The main problem is not only to define the structure of the international system (several times) as multipolar .international system (several times) as multipolar .

It is also to recognize that the security environment has changed It is also to recognize that the security environment has changed dramatically, not only because several challenges, threats and dramatically, not only because several challenges, threats and different actors (other matter for discussion in the report) but because different actors (other matter for discussion in the report) but because the main character of this environment in terms of security is the the main character of this environment in terms of security is the

change to an offense-dominance world,change to an offense-dominance world,

This happen due to, above all, cyberwarfare, but also for the This happen due to, above all, cyberwarfare, but also for the integration and the interrelation of this realm with integration and the interrelation of this realm with

Space systems, Space systems,

WMD, WMD,

Missile defense, Missile defense,

Conventional Global Strike capabilities, (Prompt Global Strike )Conventional Global Strike capabilities, (Prompt Global Strike )

Battlefield Battlefield robotizationrobotization (drones and other kinds of robots) and (drones and other kinds of robots) and nanotechnology. nanotechnology.

Meaning of a Offense-Dominant WorldMeaning of a Offense-Dominant WorldIn terms of the Security Dilemma model, the ODW, would be the In terms of the Security Dilemma model, the ODW, would be the worst world resulted from no differentiation offense-defense and a worst world resulted from no differentiation offense-defense and a situation where the offense has the advantagesituation where the offense has the advantage

This, in a dynamic international system, include:This, in a dynamic international system, include:– new alliances and alignments, including soft balancingnew alliances and alignments, including soft balancing– Lack of incentives and reduced interest convergence, and increased competition, Lack of incentives and reduced interest convergence, and increased competition,

It could makes the international system prone to :It could makes the international system prone to :– offensive visions and military doctrines, first-strike postures, offensive visions and military doctrines, first-strike postures, – and aggressive actions and postures even from an economic and technological and aggressive actions and postures even from an economic and technological

points of view (for instance conceptions as the Chinese points of view (for instance conceptions as the Chinese Unrestricted WarfareUnrestricted Warfare conception: use of the supply of rare earth elements, REEs, as coercive tool in conception: use of the supply of rare earth elements, REEs, as coercive tool in negotiations). negotiations).

This has changed for instance, the meaning (or even the utility) of This has changed for instance, the meaning (or even the utility) of Deterrence and the ability for recognizing offense-defense balance Deterrence and the ability for recognizing offense-defense balance and differentiation. and differentiation.

This dynamic is producing a major change in security environment This dynamic is producing a major change in security environment and definition, not discussed in the report, affecting the viability of and definition, not discussed in the report, affecting the viability of the Comprehensive Security concept and the chapter Instruments the Comprehensive Security concept and the chapter Instruments and Capabilities.and Capabilities.

Absence of Intelligence issuesAbsence of Intelligence issues

There is only one reference to There is only one reference to IntelligenceIntelligence issues in all issues in all the report; It is absent from the points: the report; It is absent from the points: Enhancing military Enhancing military and civilian capabilities; Promoting human development and civilian capabilities; Promoting human development and preventing conflict; Boosting international economic and preventing conflict; Boosting international economic and environmental problem-solving ; Taking and environmental problem-solving ; Taking comprehensive security responsibility in the strategic comprehensive security responsibility in the strategic neighborhood. neighborhood.

OnlyOnly a at the end of the report regarding institution building t the end of the report regarding institution building there is a reference: there is a reference: Intelligence support should rely on Intelligence support should rely on long-term trust-building efforts among national services long-term trust-building efforts among national services and EU agencies, as well as on better use of available and EU agencies, as well as on better use of available capabilities and the pooling of regional expertise within the capabilities and the pooling of regional expertise within the EU system.EU system.

Some problems for this security Some problems for this security conceptionconception

COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY, EU WMD COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY, EU WMD STRATEGIES, NATO DDPR (also US 2010 NPR) ARE STRATEGIES, NATO DDPR (also US 2010 NPR) ARE NOT RESPONDING TO:NOT RESPONDING TO:– STRUCTURAL, REGIONAL AND DOMESTIC DYNAMICS IN STRUCTURAL, REGIONAL AND DOMESTIC DYNAMICS IN

AREAS AS MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA AREAS AS MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA – NOR RESPONDING THE EXPECTATIONS CREATED BY NOR RESPONDING THE EXPECTATIONS CREATED BY

THIS POLICIES.THIS POLICIES.

THIS COULD BE PRODUCED BECAUSE OF:THIS COULD BE PRODUCED BECAUSE OF:– EXPECTATIONS ON MULTIPOLARITY BY SOME STATES EXPECTATIONS ON MULTIPOLARITY BY SOME STATES

ABOVE IN MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA,ABOVE IN MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA,– REDUCTION ON CONFIDENCE ON INTERNATIONAL REDUCTION ON CONFIDENCE ON INTERNATIONAL

REGIMES AND REGIMES AND – REDUCTION ON US EXTENDED DETERRENCE AND REDUCTION ON US EXTENDED DETERRENCE AND

ASSURANCE IN EUROPE AND ASIA.ASSURANCE IN EUROPE AND ASIA.

Conclusions??Conclusions?? To conclude, this posture takes us again to the start of the To conclude, this posture takes us again to the start of the report and of this analysis. These last ideas are not clearly report and of this analysis. These last ideas are not clearly helping to create an image of a more proactive European helping to create an image of a more proactive European Union; it could also be more realist that in the past, but Union; it could also be more realist that in the past, but new new convertsconverts rarely are convincing; rarely are convincing;

As the introduction of the report says, there is a As the introduction of the report says, there is a need for a need for a more strategic EU discourse, which might help to mitigate more strategic EU discourse, which might help to mitigate the shortcomings of today’s European narrative. The the shortcomings of today’s European narrative. The attraction and attractiveness of EU as alternative model is a attraction and attractiveness of EU as alternative model is a narrative that could not work anymore. narrative that could not work anymore.

Finally, in certain positions, more than adaptive, the report Finally, in certain positions, more than adaptive, the report prefers to accommodate. In times of crisis this posture may prefers to accommodate. In times of crisis this posture may be an intelligent posture, but not in long term, because be an intelligent posture, but not in long term, because irrelevance is around the corner.irrelevance is around the corner.

Though much is taken, much abides; and thoughThough much is taken, much abides; and thoughWe are not now that strength which in old daysWe are not now that strength which in old days

Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are;Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are;One equal temper of heroic hearts,One equal temper of heroic hearts,

Made weak by time and fate, but strong in willMade weak by time and fate, but strong in willTo strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

UlyssesUlysses Lord Tennyson Lord Tennyson