ALTERNATIVE.EVERY

The Engine/Energy The Engine/Energy Transition to TomorrowTransition to Tomorrow

David LynchDavid LynchCummins Westport Inc.Cummins Westport Inc.

March 27, 2008March 27, 2008

What is changing ?

• Higher vehicle pricing for new technology

• Higher cost of Ultra Low Sulfur diesel fuel

• SCR for 2010 -- cost implications

• The shifting economics of diesel operation

• Concern about Green House Gases

What are your alternatives?• Get out your checkbook

• Conserve diesel fuel however you can

• Change vehicle specifications

• Bus and Truck specs for fuel economy

• Consider other alternatives

Diesel / NG Pathways to 2010

DieselULSDActive Diesel Particulate FiltersCEGR (ISC/ISL)NOx Adsorber or SCR

SCR more efficient but a liquid that will be regulated and taxed

Crank Case Ventilation (CV) ’07Lube Oil

Will require new, low ash oilNew Oil Filters

=1.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 20070.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2010

Natural Gas No change- CNG or LNG capable Replace Oxicat with Three Way Catalyst Add- CEGR (ISL G) No NOX adsorber required

No CV required–reduced maintenance vs. LBSI

No Change- Low Ash Oil in use today CES20074

Fleetguard Filter

= 0.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2007

Consider………

What to do until the

Psychiatrist Arrives

What are your alternatives?

Consider an Alternative to Diesel Fuel

What about natural gas ?• Cleaner burning than diesel• Abundant supply in North America• Engine efficiency improving over diesel• Renewable fuel – LFG to LNG• Can be less expensive to operate than diesel• Latest technology engines available

8.9 litre Stoichiometric EGR engine:- Lowest emissions

- 0.20 g/bhp-hr NOx- 0.01 g/bhp-hr PM

- Higher efficiency- Diesel-like reliability & durability- Improved performance - Higher clutch engagement torque-250-320 Ratings-Increasing OEM Availability-Fourth generation

ISL G – Next Generation Natural Gas Engine

Launched June, 2007

Peak Power Peak Torque Transmission Match Application

320 @ 2000 1000 @ 1300 Allison B500 Urban Bus Allison 4500RDS Truck

300 @ 2100 860 @ 1300 Allison 3500 RDS Truck280 @ 2000 900 @ 1300 Allison B400 Urban Bus

School Bus260 @ 2200 660 @ 1300 Allison 3500 RDS Sweeper

Yard Spotter250 @ 2200 730 @ 1300 Allison B300 Shuttle Bus

School Bus

2007 ISL G RatingsRating Matching Example

ISL G rated speed is the same as ISL diesel, eliminating the need to review and adjust final drive ratios

Four Generations of Natural Gas Engines1998

C8.3G Mechanical

•Introduced in 1998•Major improvement over 1st generation CNG L10 Series•Over 4000 still in service•Improved Reliability

2001

C Gas Plus•Introduced in 2001

•State of the art spark ignition/control system

•First engine 2004 EPA Certified

•Six fold reliability Increase

2004

L Gas Plus•Introduced in 2004

•Improved Ignition control system

•VG Turbo

•Based on 8.9 L ISL Block

•2007 NOx and 2010 PM levels

2007

ISL G•Introduced in June 2007

•Stoichiometric EGR combustion

•Wastegate Turbo

•Three Way Catalyst

•First HD engine certified 2010 NOx and PM levels

2007 ISL G Benefits

• Meets 2010 Emission Standards• More fuel efficient• No exhaust system related maintenance costs• Improved clutch engagement torque (+34%)• 80% of design based upon diesel engine platform• Uses a renewable fuel found in North America• Substantial GHG Reductions

GHG Well to Wheel Analysis - GH GeniusPost 2010 Results (Southern BC)

22.6% GHG reduction Including vehicle material and assembly - 21.9% GHG

Extraction Processing Transportation and storage

End user Total

Natural Gas

115 g/km 49.5 g/km 53.9 g/km 1,183.9 g/km

1,402.4 g/km

Diesel

268.8g/km 179.5 g/km 9.7 g/km 1,353.7g/km

1,811.7 g/km

ISL G Applications/OEMsREFUSE VOCATIONALURBAN TRANSIT FUTURE

What about the cost of change?• Standard CWI LCC model default assumption set

– Not whole vehicle cost– Incremental natural gas related capital, and engine, fuel system, detection maintenance– Also includes capital and maintenance required for fuel infrastructure, and maintenance facilities

• $1 Million facility modifications for both refuse and transit• 50 truck fleet refuse and 70 bus fleet transit - actual property-southern US• Urban Bus analysis assumes CNG• Refuse analysis assumes LNG Fuel Prices:

– Diesel Fuel (refuse): $2.30 / gallon ($0.05 added for ULSD)– Diesel Fuel (urban bus): $2.20 / gallon ($0.05 added for ULSD)– Liquid Natural Gas (refuse): $1.72 DGE (prior to application of Highway Bill excise tax credit)

• $675,000 LNG infrastructure capital not included in fuel price but included in model– Natural Gas (transit): $1.70 DGE (prior to application of Highway Bill excise tax credit)

• Includes commodity, O&M, electricity and $2 Million station 80% FTA funded

• Assume that Highway/Energy Bill tax credit flows fully & completely to end-user – Actual impact on end-user TBD

• Assume Energy Bill credit applies to net incremental cost after FTA funding (83%) is applied (Urban Bus only)• Maximum $12,000 Energy Bill Credit to OEM for Hybrid (no Highway Bill credits)• Assume that Energy & Highway Bill provisions remain in effect beyond 2010• Diesel Electric Hybrid fuel economy benefit assumed to be 20%, based on recent projections from fleets (e.g.

Ottawa)

LCC Analysis – US Urban Bus

($15,000)

($10,000)

($5,000)

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

2004-2006 2007-2009 2010+

Rel

ativ

e A

nn

ual

Co

sts

(US

$/u

nit

/yr)

Diesel Diesel Electric Hybrid Natural Gas

Model Year

$1472$2269

$655

$3191

($836) ($955)

Natural Gas with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions

($9263)($10,305) ($10305)

$1746

Diesel Electric Hybrid with Energy Bill Provisions

$2786

$1067$1370$1496

LCC Analysis - Refuse Collection

($15,000)

($10,000)

($5,000)

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

2004-2006 2007-2009 2010+

Rel

ativ

e A

nn

ual

Co

sts

(US

$/u

nit

/yr)

Diesel Cummins Westport

Model Year

Cummins Westport with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions

Private($4144)

Private($4144)

Private($3337)

$5743

$1675$2498

$2573$2498

Public($5962)

Public($6644)

Public($6644)

Baseline

NO

x E

mis

sio

n L

eve

l (g

/bh

p-h

r)

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

US P&D with Federal Incentives

($7,500)

($5,000)

($2,500)

$0

$2,500

$5,000

$7,500

Model YearCurrent

Model Year2010+

Rel

ativ

e A

nn

ual

Co

sts

(US

$/u

nit

/yr)

NO

x E

mis

sio

n L

eve

l (g

/bh

p-h

r)

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Diesel Natural Gas

Natural Gas with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions

$6.3K

$1K

$5.3K

$2.5K$3.3K

Model Year2007-2009

$5.3K

$3.3K

$1.7K

Baseline

What is over the Horizon ?

• LCNG

• LFG to LNG

• HCNG

Conclusions• The economics of vehicle operations

are shifting

• Energy/Highway Bill funding makes Natural Gas a Bargain.

• Some businesses will profit from the opportunity.

Why Natural Gas Engines for Buses & Trucks?

Emissions LeadershipISL G is the only Urban Bus and Truck engine

that met 2010 EPA Emissions at launch in 2007

Energy SecurityReduced reliance on imported

oilLower fuel costsPathway to hydrogen

Emerging Economic BenefitsContinuous reliability improvementISL G Improved EfficiencyGreatest benefits in high fuel use

applications