1. The Elephant in the Room Issues in pastoralism research: An informal conversation Peter D. Little and Waktole Tiki Academic Workshop on Mobile Pastoralism, Index Insurance, Computational Sustainability and Policy Innovations for the Arid and Semi-arid Lands of East Africa ILRI Campus, Nairobi Kenya, June 10-11, 2015 2. Goals of the presentation Are there some big fundamental issues and trends in pastoralism research that are missed in micro-level, project based research? I will discuss 10. It builds on an earlier paper I wrote for a volume by Catley, Lind, and Scoones (2012). Present some of the evidence from our current research program on Climate-induced vulnerability: Pastoralism and livestock marketing chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya (CHAINS). Not heavy on empirics! Have an informal conversation! 3. 1. Population Issue Town and settlement growth Demography of mobile pastoralists vs sedentary pastoralists Labor absorptive capacity of Pastoralism: low? In the Borana case settle- ments often in dry season Grazing (deep well areas) Impacts on grazing patterns? 4. 2. Towns matter in pastoral areas For diversification: employment and investment Links to pastoral sector Markets Bring in large numbers of non-pastoralists Politics and policy! 5. 3. Governance and Democracy Issue Related to population and town growth Mobile pastoralists becomes minority in its own areas? Implications for decentralizationvoice of pastoralists? Elections and democracy 6. 4. Basic Services Issue Health, water, and education always rank highest priorities in participatory assessments. What are we missing here? Where do we start? 7. 5. Education Issue Formal education matters for jobsproductive diversification. Political representation and giving a voice to communities. Fundamental tasks require literacybasic math, etc. How to deliver education? The costs of education in loss of labor, settlement, etc. Promote sub-division of commons? Youth vs elders 8. 6. Employment issue Youth and unemployment Rural Informality (enormous employment) 9. 6. Employment issue (cont) Do we understand the employment multipliers of livestock trade, pastoralism, etc. 10. > 300 BUSINESSES AT HAROBAKE MARKET, BORANA, ETHIOPIA 11. 7. Domestic markets matter Where is the highest value market? Figure 2. Average prices for mature male cattle: source Ethiopian livestock market information system Source: W. Tiki, 2014, p. 23 12. 8. The credit Issue Credit flows up the market chain (from smallest to largest traders) Default on credit and risk is highthe smallest traders are hurt the mostmore than 30 percent of traders experience credit default Credit defaulters, amount (birr) in the second round of interviews N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Amount lost (in Birrs) 27 960 2000000 311709.3 545477 Times defaulted 27 1 6 1.2 0.97 Number of defaulters 27 1 5 1.3 0.92 Source: W. Tiki, Third year annual report, 2014. 13. 9. The Herd Structure Issue: why so little change? Evidence: Dairy and breeding herds, Borana, Ethiopia, 2013 Male camels Female camels Male cattle Female cattle Male goats Female goats Total number 35 100 294 1313 246 964 % of herd 26 % 74% 18.5% 81.5% 20.5% 79.5% SOURCE: DATA FROM CHAINS STUDY, 2013 14. ANIMAL Export Regional Cross- Bordera National Domestic Local Domestic Cattle 1. Bulls 3-7 year 340-380 kg 1. Bulls < 3 years; 2. Large Oxen and Bulls> 7 years 3. Heifers 1. Bulls (non- export quality) and oxen 3-7 yr. 2. Bulls > 7 years 3. Cows > 8 years 1. Bulls > 7 years 2. Cows > 8 years 3. Oxen > 7 years Camel 1. Males 3-8 years 1. Males 3-8 years Minimal Minimal Goats 1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg 1. Males 18-24 months and 24- 32 kg 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 years 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 years Sheep 1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg 1. Males 18-24 months and 24- 32 kg 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 yrs 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 yrs Contrast: Many Markets demand male animals? Southern Ethiopian Livestock Markets, 2013 15. Pastoralist Bush trader (male animals) Borana, 2013 Southern Somalia, 1988 16. Bush trader selling for export trade, Borana, Ethiopia 17. 10. Timing of livestock sales matter Determines benefits for producers Why do herders sellstill little change in past 30 years. What has changed? 18. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Kanicharo Dikale Total PercentageofHHReasons Research Sites Figure Reasons for Selling Livestock by Study Locations To buy clothes for the family To pay tax To buy food for the family To cover medication expense of the family To cover children's school expense To build a house To buy water for livestock For ceremonial expense (wedding) To buy other animal To pay back loan Animal's health problem/sick To buy livestock feed (salt......) To buy farm tools To pay for veterinary services/medicine To buy mobile phone Source: CHAINS Data, 2013 CHALLENGE The why & when herders sell animals 19. Gradual Asset Deaccumulation Accelerated Deaccumulation Massive Deaccumulation Reaccumulation Accumulation (+) Decummulation (-) Asset Poor Households Asset Rich Households Livelihood Strategies Sell livestock Grain stocks decline Food expenditures increase Search for off-farm employt Conserve cash Sell wood Borrow from merchants and family Maintain and invest in social networks Livestock distress sales and weight loss; livestock consumed Consume wild roots/leaves search for off-farm emplyt Out-migration Go to live with relatives Little investment in social networks Sell hhold items+implements Increased sharecropping Consume seed Extreme livestock mortality Grain stocks dry up Homes deconstructed to sell wood and corrugated iron Outmigration if health allows Families and communities unravel Social networks difficult to maintain Unknown Market Characteristics Land rental rates increase Borrowing costs increase Wage rate declines slightly Grain prices rise slightly Livestock prices begin to decline Diets and labor productivity maintained Wage rates fall; land rental rates rise Labor demand declines Grain prices spike in thin mkts Livestock prices plummet giving from the well-off to poor w/in community Borrowing costs spike Land rental rates fall Wood/livestock prices collapse Cereal prices uncertain due to food aid Community network collapses Malnutrition, disease, death Unknown Climate/Drought Risk (multi-year cycles) (Roth and Little, 1998) 20. Improve local bargaining/price and timing of sales Address feed problem 21. 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% Abattoirs Export traders Local traders Local pastoralists PercentageShareofBuyers Buyers Livestock Buyers (Access issue for herders), Borana, ETH Buyers 22. Mobility affects market access: Fixed markets are not where best grazing is, esp in droughts (map by Sarah Guagliardo) 23. Uneven Impacts and Losses due to Feed shortage (drought) Photos by Dejene N. Debsu 24. ASANTE SANA Acknowledgements: Support for this research was provided by the Climate-Induced Vulnerability and Pastoralist Livestock Marketing Chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya (CHAINS) Project of the Innovation Lab for Adapting Livestock Systems to Climate Change (ALS-CC) Collaborative Research Program (USAID Grant No. EEM-A-00-10- 00001). The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Thanks also due to members of CHAINS project: Dejene Negassa Debsu Polly Ericksen Uriel Kitron Hussein A. Mahmoud Workneh Negatu Carla Roncoli