the economic situation - mercatus center• housing will be strong; autos down. • the pace of...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE ECONOMIC SITUATIONBRUCE YANDLE | THURSDAY, MARCH 2, 2017
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-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990-01-01
1991-01-01
1992-01-01
1993-01-01
1994-01-01
1995-01-01
1996-01-01
1997-01-01
1998-01-01
1999-01-01
2000-01-01
2001-01-01
2002-01-01
2003-01-01
2004-01-01
2005-01-01
2006-01-01
2007-01-01
2008-01-01
2009-01-01
2010-01-01
2011-01-01
2012-01-01
2013-01-01
2014-01-01
2015-01-01
2016-01-01
2017-01-01
2018-01-01Real GDP Growth
Compounded Annual Rate1990 – 2016
Estimates for 2017, 2018%
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990-01-01
1991-01-01
1992-01-01
1993-01-01
1994-01-01
1995-01-01
1996-01-01
1997-01-01
1998-01-01
1999-01-01
2000-01-01
2001-01-01
2002-01-01
2003-01-01
2004-01-01
2005-01-01
2006-01-01
2007-01-01
2008-01-01
2009-01-01
2010-01-01
2011-01-01
2012-01-01
2013-01-01
2014-01-01
2015-01-01
2016-01-01
2017-01-01
2018-01-01Real GDP Growth
1990 – 20162017-2018 estimate%
-
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990-01-01
1991-01-01
1992-01-01
1993-01-01
1994-01-01
1995-01-01
1996-01-01
1997-01-01
1998-01-01
1999-01-01
2000-01-01
2001-01-01
2002-01-01
2003-01-01
2004-01-01
2005-01-01
2006-01-01
2007-01-01
2008-01-01
2009-01-01
2010-01-01
2011-01-01
2012-01-01
2013-01-01
2014-01-01
2015-01-01
2016-01-01
2017-01-01
2018-01-01Real GDP Growth
Compounded Annual Rate1990 – 2016
Estimates for 2017, 2018%
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990-01-01
1991-01-01
1992-01-01
1993-01-01
1994-01-01
1995-01-01
1996-01-01
1997-01-01
1998-01-01
1999-01-01
2000-01-01
2001-01-01
2002-01-01
2003-01-01
2004-01-01
2005-01-01
2006-01-01
2007-01-01
2008-01-01
2009-01-01
2010-01-01
2011-01-01
2012-01-01
2013-01-01
2014-01-01
2015-01-01
2016-01-01
2017-01-01
2018-01-01Real GDP Growth
Compounded Annual Rate1990 - 2016
2017-2018 est.Looking for the 4% Solution%
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2025
U.S. Growth in Labor Force1950 - 2025(Estimates)
Author'scalculation usingBureauofLaborStatisticsdata.
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-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1950
-01-
0119
52-0
1-01
1954
-01-
0119
56-0
1-01
1958
-01-
0119
60-0
1-01
1962
-01-
0119
64-0
1-01
1966
-01-
0119
68-0
1-01
1970
-01-
0119
72-0
1-01
1974
-01-
0119
76-0
1-01
1978
-01-
0119
80-0
1-01
1982
-01-
0119
84-0
1-01
1986
-01-
0119
88-0
1-01
1990
-01-
0119
92-0
1-01
1994
-01-
0119
96-0
1-01
1998
-01-
0120
00-0
1-01
2002
-01-
0120
04-0
1-01
2006
-01-
0120
08-0
1-01
2010
-01-
0120
12-0
1-01
2014
-01-
01
U.S. Labor Productivity, 1950 - 2014% Change on Annual Rate10-Year Running Average5-Year Running Average
-
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1950
-01-
0119
52-0
1-01
1954
-01-
0119
56-0
1-01
1958
-01-
0119
60-0
1-01
1962
-01-
0119
64-0
1-01
1966
-01-
0119
68-0
1-01
1970
-01-
0119
72-0
1-01
1974
-01-
0119
76-0
1-01
1978
-01-
0119
80-0
1-01
1982
-01-
0119
84-0
1-01
1986
-01-
0119
88-0
1-01
1990
-01-
0119
92-0
1-01
1994
-01-
0119
96-0
1-01
1998
-01-
0120
00-0
1-01
2002
-01-
0120
04-0
1-01
2006
-01-
0120
08-0
1-01
2010
-01-
0120
12-0
1-01
2014
-01-
01
U.S. Labor Productivity, 1950 - 2014% Change on Annual Rate10-Year Running Average5-Year Running Average
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index1/2007 - 1/2017
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Here’s the picture that I see for the U.S. for 2017:
• 2017 GDP growth will be in the range 2.2% - 2.5%. • Inflation will rise a bit. Look for 2.0% – 2.5%.• Interest rates will nudge up. 10-yr. bond: 2.50%-3.00%.
Mortgage rate: 4.00%- 4.50%.• Housing will be strong; autos down.• The pace of manufacturing activity will accelerate from
hardly moving to slow, led by machinery.
Remember, what happens beyond 2017 is in the hands of the new Washington team. With acceptance of positive agenda elements, look for GDP growth approaching 3% in late 2018 and 2019.
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Beyond 2017: Trump Pluses and Minuses
• Cutcapitalgainsandcorporateincometaxes.• ReviseAffordableCareAct.• ReviseDodd-Frank.• Reversesome environmentalregulation.• RenegotiateNAFTA.• GettoughwithChina.• Imposebordertaxes.
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NASA.April– October,2012.
TheGeographicImprint
LOOKINGFORGOODNEWS
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Nationwide,214counties,or7%of3,069,hadrecoveredin2014toprerecessionlevelsonfourindicators:totalemployment,unemploymentrate,sizeofeconomy,andmedianhomevalues.
Countyrecoveryasof2014relativeto1/2008.Employment,unemploymentrate,GDP,medianhousingvalue.
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462morecountieshadfullyrecoveredby2016
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Bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems