the economic outlook for south carolina and the santee-lynches region 2012-2013 may 3, 2012 rob...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Economic Outlookfor
South Carolina and the
Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013
May 3, 2012
Rob SalvinoCoastal Carolina University
![Page 2: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
S.C. Total Employment (Millions)
![Page 3: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
S.C. Unemployment Rate
![Page 4: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
S.C. Aggregate Wages and Salaries by Sector ($ Millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
State and Local Govt
Manufacturing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Federal, civilian
![Page 5: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
S.C. Single Family Permits (number)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
History 40998 38895 29870 18604 12795 12142 12237 NaN NaN
Forecast NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13125 13975
2,500
7,500
12,500
17,500
22,500
27,500
32,500
37,500
42,500
![Page 6: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2012-2013
Presented by:The Santee-Lynches Regional Workforce Investment Board
&the BB&T Center at Coastal Carolina University
![Page 7: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Gross Retail Sales ($Billions)
![Page 8: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Net Taxable Sales ($Billions)
![Page 9: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Employment
![Page 10: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Labor Force
Labor Force = Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work
![Page 11: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Unemployment Rate
Number of Unemployed seeking work
Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work
![Page 12: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
4.3
6.37.0
7.5 7.78.1
7.6
6.7
7.8
12.612.2
11.5
3.5
5.25.9
6.7 6.8 6.86.4
5.6
6.8
11.5 11.2
10.3
4.04.8
5.86.0
5.55.1
4.6 4.6
5.8
9.3 9.69.0
Average annual unemployment rates, 2000 - 2011
Region STATE U.S.
![Page 13: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (3 qtrs avg.)
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000 19,868
18,174
16,547 16,49215,781
14,768
13,80713,254
12,178
10,4979,841 9,688
Region's manufacturing jobs by year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
![Page 14: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (3 qtrs avg.)
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
51,570
50,789
51,467 51,500
52,587 52,934
53,493
54,311
53,222
50,791 50,939 51,065
Region's non-manufacturing jobs by year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
![Page 15: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Projected Timeline
2011 2021
18 (key mgt. positions)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
150 (prod. leads)
240 130 130 130
800 totalhere
1,600 totalhereWages
$33,000 avg. production wage$55,000 avg. overall wage
![Page 16: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy
is education, education, education.”
Dr. JOHN S. BUTLERProfessor, University of Texas
![Page 17: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 2011 U6 Unemployment Rates for adults 25-and-older. U6 Rate measures the total unemployed, plus those employed part-time involuntarily, plus discouraged workers who have at least temporarily given up searching for work. Thus, U6 rates describe the real number of people in the U.S. who are feeling the effects of unemployment. U6 national rates applied to Santee-Lynches Region by COG calculation.
![Page 18: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Source: Employment Security Commission UI Unique Claimants* Approximately 18.2% of UI claimants during the years didn’t provide educational attainment level on claimant form; therefore their data isn’t included here.
High school diploma / GED or less
1 or 2 years of post-secondary educ.
3 or more years of post-secondary educ.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0% 76.9%
15.4%
7.7%
75.7%
16.2%
8.1%
76.4%
15.9%
7.7%
75.1%
16.2%
8.7%
Educational attainment of UI Unique Claimants in Region by Year*
2006 2007 2008 2009
![Page 19: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 201033.0%
36.0%
39.0%
42.0%
45.0%
48.0%
51.0%
54.0%
57.0%
45.1%46.2%
44.7%46.2%
47.9%46.4% 45.9%
47.8%
50.2%
47.2%
49.2% 49.4% 50.0%50.8%
51.7%53.1%
55.1%56.1%
Percentage of students enrolling in college, other postsecondary, or military in first fall term after expected high school completion date
Santee-Lynches STATE
Source: SC Dept. of Education’s 8th grade enrollment totals and College Freshman Report.Percentage estimates are likely within 5% margin of error of true rate of cohort entry into postsecondary and the military directly after high school.
![Page 20: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Single Family Permits
![Page 21: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Santee-LynchesSingle Family Permits – Value ($Millions)
![Page 22: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Santee-Lynches Mfgd/Mobile Homes - Number
![Page 23: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Santee-LynchesNon-Residential Permits – Number
![Page 24: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Santee-LynchesNon-Residential Permits – Value ($Millions)
![Page 25: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Forecast Summary• Gross Retail Sales rising because of higher employment,
income and inflation. High gas and food prices will still curtail discretionary spending to some extent.
• Employment improving more in 2012 and ’13, given pent-up demand, industrial expansions and other announcements creating more optimism.
• Educate and train workforce for 21st Century jobs. Importance of post-secondary education. Fewer and fewer opportunities for low-skilled workers.
• Residential Construction still low.• Nonresidential Construction improving.
![Page 26: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Real GDP (Growth Rate)
![Page 27: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
CPI (Inflation Rate)
![Page 28: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
![Page 29: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Prime Rate
![Page 30: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30-Year Mortgage Rate
![Page 31: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
10-Year Treasury Rate
![Page 32: The Economic Outlook for South Carolina and the Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013 May 3, 2012 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649c9a5503460f94957432/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
3-Month Treasury Rate