The Economic Impact of School Closures in Malaysia

Abel Benjamin Lim, Fariq Sazuki, Benedict Weerasena, Carmelo Ferlito

CME Policy Brief No. 1June 2021

Photo by MChe Lee on Unsplash

The Economic Impact of School Closures in Malaysia2

Abel Benjamin Lim Economist at Bait Al-Amanah, Malaysia.

Fariq Sazuki Economist at Bait Al-Amanah and Fellow of the Center for Market Education, Malaysia.

Benedict Weerasena Economist at Bait Al-Amanah and Fellow of the Center for Market Education, Malaysia.

Carmelo Ferlito CEO of the Center for Market Education, Malaysia.

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The Pandemic known as Covid-19 has come to affect the Malaysian education system, which was already suffering from several problems, mainly as a result of centralization. The policies implemented by the Malaysian Government to attempt to curb the spread of the virus – namely, the closures of educational institutions, and in particular schools, associated with several lockdowns – have heavily weighed on the Malaysian society and life. The present paper addresses the most critical effects of school closures on the Malaysian socio-economic system, proposing a list of policy prescriptions for a safe return to face-to-face education.

Main findings:

• School closures seem to be a disproportionately heavy measure in addressing the spread of Covid-19 as the number of Covid deaths among individuals at school age is extremely low (for example, current mortality statistics illustrate that 0.02% of the total Covid-19 deaths in Italy and 0.04% in the United States of America) and therefore the risk can be minimized with less radical measures.

• According to therelevantscientific literature, schoolclosureshavenotbeenprovedtobesignificantlyimportantincontainingthe spread of the virus.

• The enforced closing of schools, however, instead are a source of heavy cost. First of all, in terms of educational losses in the learning process: even in an optimistic scenario of high effectiveness of remote learning relative to classroom learning, Malaysia’s learning losses comprises a low rate of loss of 0.45 years (5.4 months). However, in the pessimistic scenario, Malaysia has the highest learning losses across all the Asian developing countries surveyed, with an alarming rate of loss of 0.95 years (11.4 months). It has to be stressed that learning is only one part of the larger scope of education, which includes social interactions among peers and the dynamic relationship between teachers and pupils.

Executive Summary

The Economic Impact of School Closures in Malaysia4

• School closures are extremely regressive, as they affect mostly families in which both parents must work and most Malaysian families are those with an inferior degree of accessibility to electronic devices and proper internet coverage.

• From the economic perspective, school closures could cost, in terms of GDP losses, RM 80 billion per year ; in other words, each year of disrupted physical school operations will cost Malaysia the equivalent to 33.3 days (1.11 months) of MCO 1.0-type lockdown or 114.3 days (3.81 months) of MCO 2.0-type lockdown. Under the current scenario, whereby it seems that hiccup education will last three years, the expected total future loss in terms of GDP is RM 240 billion.

• Thiswill be reflected also in termsof future expectedearning losses. Each year of disrupted physical school operations could bring an expectedeconomic loss per worker of between RM 464.26 and RM 1,121.95. For individuals with a degree, such a loss could reach up to RM 2,054.24 per year.

Policy recommendations:

• Given such a trade-off analysis, we advocate for an immediate reopening of schools.

• The gold standard for a safe reopening is given by an activity of mass and frequent covid-screening, which means testing each student every Monday; this approach would allow early detection and the isolation of positive cases, preventing asymptomatic contagions and the development of heavy symptoms.

• Theprogramcouldbefinanciallysustainablethankstotheintroductionofrapidtesting,whoseefficacyisdiscussedin the paper.

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• The limited cost of a program based on rapid testing (USD 5/test) could easily be borne by schools and families, while the government should provide subsidies only for real poverty situations.

• We call for an immediate interruption of generalized policies, where future school closures should be decided on acasebycaseandonthegroundsbackedupbyscientificevidence.Inthisregard,engagementwithhealthofficialsiscrucial.

• Education authorities must consider an inclusive approach to reduce the disparities between students once schools begin reopening, addressing the inequality created by lockdowns and school closures.

• Asafinalmeasure,creativemeasuresshouldbeintroducedin order to keep schools open; among them, creating larger spaces, outdoor schooling, protective bubbles and effective communication.

The Economic Impact of School Closures in Malaysia6

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit Malaysia in early 2020, there were already so many issues with the Malaysian education system. For example, the problem of centralisation of education has always been a a matter of big debate within Malaysia. The fact that the Ministry of Education (MOE) oversees all schooling decisions makes it challenging for policymakers to find a one-size-fits-all set of policies for each school from Sabah to Perlis.Theperilousandunbalancedweightof scientificdisciplinesover(properly taught) humanities is yet another source of concerns. The is because the lack of humanities compromises the possibility for critical thinking for students and therefore innovative minds to emerge. As a result, the pace of change in our education system hasbeeninsufficient,becausepeopleintheFederalGovernmenttend to not to understand the needs and challenges on the ground.

Besides that, despite having a high percentage of enrolment in tertiary education and of university graduates, the unemployment of the youth is still a huge problem in Malaysia. In 2020, the estimated youth unemployment was 11.72 percent, which is the highest since theoldestavailabledata in1999.Thishighfigurecannotbe fullyattributed to the pandemic, because the unemployment of the youth has been around 11 percent and rising since 2015 (O’Neill, 2021).

Thefindingsofseveralstudiesdemonstratethattheunemploymentof the youth may stem from the inadequacy of Malaysian educational governance policies. Our schools’ concentrated emphasis on examinations over cognitive skills, critical thinking, and creative reimagination has not prepared students for higher education and, ultimately, for the job market. Eventually, this problem will cause a structural mismatch between demand and supply in the Malaysian labour market.

Introduction1.

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Now, in the current scenario where the Covid pandemic is creating an economic crisis in Malaysia, the education crisis worsens. Since COVID-19 has arrived in Malaysia in early 2020, our education policies have been exposed and the outcomes to be more problematic than we realized. The uncertain decision surrounding the reopening of schools has created distress among students, teachers, and parents during the Movement Control Order (MCO). This policy uncertainty has also caused long-term damage to students’ educational growth and thus, the labour market in the future.

Atthismoment,thegovernmenthasdecidedtoindefinitelyreplacein-school education with remote learning as a new standard policy, which is shown to discriminate amongst students based on their socioeconomic backgrounds. The remote learning option would be convenient for students with a personal electronic device (either a smart telephone or a laptop) and a strong, stable Internet connection. Unfortunately, not every child in Malaysia enjoys this privilege, effectively causing further learning inequality among our students based upon household income levels.

Photo by Haseeb Modi on Unsplash

The Economic Impact of School Closures in Malaysia8

Furthermore, while we recognize the role that new technologies play in the new world, and we embrace the need for mastering them, despite the challenges posed by the recent Covid-19 emergency and the call for a more widespread use of remote learning. We also believe that a comprehensive education cannot be supplied without the fundamental interrelation between teachers and students. The word education comes from the Latin educationis, the activity of educare, which means “to pull out, to extract”. It is thus clear that education does not exist without the virtuous relationship between a pupil and a master, who has the delicate task to pull out of the pupil his or her best features, helping her or him in the discovery process of their very individual self. If education was only the transmission of notions, then we would not need schools and teachers at all, we could just supply students with learning materials. Instead, beyond the contents, the mission of education is precisely the hand-in-hand growth path that pupils and masters make together. For this reason, the role of teachers needs to be emphasized and they need to be trained according to the cruciality of their mission.

Therefore, while it is bad that Malaysia is facing a serious health pandemic at the moment, there is another severe problem that the government should worry about, which is the potential of mass learning loss due to school closures and irregular education policies. This grave situation cannot be neglected any longer because it affects the future generation of Malaysians1.

1 We recognize that there are other socio-economic problems linked to school closures. For example, families where both parents need to work are disproportionately more affected in terms of family financial and mental stability. However, this topic would deserve adequate treatment with a different paper and therefore it will not be discussed at length here.

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2.1. School closures and Covid-19 containment

Thefirstelementthatweshouldconsideraboutisthechoiceofclosing or opening schools during the Covid-19 pandemic, should there be a clear the demographic of Covid-19, in Malaysia. While we do not have an accurate series of data for the demographics of Covid-19 deaths in Malaysia (and the Center for Market Education is building it2), we can refer, as an accurate reference sample, to the case of Italy, one of the countries that was more severely hit by the pandemic. Since the beginning of 2020 until 28 April 2021, the Italian Istituto Superiore della Sanità (the Italian equivalent of CDC) recorded 118,592 people dead and positive to the SARS-CoV-2 virus; among them, and only 24 were individuals between 0 and 19 (school age), or 0.02% of the total (ISS, 2021). Similarly, in the United States of America, as per January 27, 2021, when the total Covid-19 deaths were 448,3133, only 207 (0.046%) were among subjects aged 0-184.Thesefiguressuggestaverylowvulnerabilityto Covid-19 for individuals in school age, so that different policies should be preferred in lieu to school closures, as suggested in the last part of the present paper.

The second consideration to be made is – after 15 months from the start of the pandemic outbreak – whether school closures haveplayedaroleinfightingthespreadofCovid-19.Vineretal.(2020) used data from the SARS pandemic and concluded that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic; in particular, during the SARS outbreak school closures outbreak in China, Hong Kong and Singapore may have contributed to preventing only 2 to 4% of deaths.

Current Impact of School Closures2.

2 Preliminary results from the last 270 Covid-19 deaths in Malaysia show that, among them, only 1 subject was in school age; she was a three-year old child suffering from leukaemia.3 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/4 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html

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Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

Similarly, the findings of von Bismarck-Osten, Borusyak andSchӧnberg(2021)providedevidencefromGermanythatschoolclosures did not contain the number of infections among young people or adults in the summer of 2020 – when infection rates were low – or during the pandemic’s autumn resurgence. Thus – theyconcluded–thebenefitsofschoolclosuresmaynotoutweightheir costs to children and parents, particularly mothers, who will finddaily lifemore challenging inorder tomaintain thebalancebetween family and work.

TheconclusionsareconfirmedforthecaseofSwedenbythestudydone by Vlachos, Hertegård and Svaleryd (2021), who however warned about the higher risk for teachers, which therefore should be protected.

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2.2. Loss of Educational Learning

As a result of school closures and the effectiveness of remote learning strategies implemented in 2020, the average intermediate learning losses5 incurred in Malaysia is 0.66 years or 7.9 months, according to the Asian Development Bank (2021a, p. 10). In fact, Malaysia’s average learning losses is ranked second only to Myanmar in the Southeast Asian region. In the optimistic scenario6 of comparative effectiveness of remote learning relative to classroom learning, Malaysia’s learning losses is a lower 0.45 years (5.4 months). However, in the pessimistic scenario7, Malaysia has the highest learning losses across all the Asian developing countries surveyed, with an alarming rate of loss of 0.95 years (11.4 months), as shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Malaysia’s learning losses in the pessimistic scenario are the highest across Asian developing countries.

5 Learning losses are calculated using the two components of learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS): the expected years of schooling (EYS) and harmonized test scores (HTS), where LAYS = EYS × HTS. The length of school closures reduces average EYS (quantity effect). However, its effect on EYS is mitigated by the effectiveness of remote learning strategies. Besides this, school closures reduce harmonized test scores (HTS) (quality effect) by as much as the country’s average school productivity or what students learn in 1 year of going to school (Azevedo et al., 2021). 6 No significant difference in student performance between online and face-to-face teaching (Paul and Jefferson, 2019), based on internet access, access to television, the comparative effectiveness of television relative to online learning, and the relative shares of students undergoing online and television-based learning. 7 Pessimistic scenario estimates that distance learning over a 12-month period causes a learning penalty of 7 months if students receive remote instruction of lower quality (42% effectiveness) (Dorn et al., 2020).

Source: Asian Development Bank (2021a).

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The learning losses in the pessimistic scenario are alarmingly high. However, there are many factors which justify the relative ineffectiveness of online or remote learning when compared with face-to-face teaching in Malaysia, which contributed to the high learning losses.

2.3. Challenges faced by teachers and students

The first consideration to bemade at this regard is thatmanyteachersintheinitialstagesofthefirstmovementcontrolorder(MCO) faced substantial difficulties, including limited access toefficient applications and the lack of supporting technologicalinfrastructure as well as stable internet connections. In addition, the limitations posed by the virtual classroom inhibit personal interaction, which then reduces the teachers’ ability to fully meet the needs of students and the necessary engagement required for improved comprehension of concepts. Furthermore, teachers had to deal with additional stressors arising from the ambiguity of their roles, challenges in virtual class management and exhaustion from teaching online.

The second consideration, the challenges students faced affected the effectiveness of remote learning. For instance, the lack of stable connectivity, especially in rural areas, and the overall lack of access to devices in general. A Ministry of Education survey performed in April 2020 involving 670,118 parents and 893,331 students revealed that 36.9% of students do not possess or have any access to devices, while only 6% of students had personal computers, 5.76% had tablets, 9% had laptops and 46% had smartphones (Ong, 2020).

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Schoolclosurescertainlyhasdisproportionateimpactsonstudentsfromfinanciallyvulnerablehouseholds, worsening long-term socio-economic inequality. Challenges faced among students from lower-income families include limited access to technology and connectivity, in addition to the lack of a conducive environment to learn effectively. As many schools implemented real-time learning, many underprivileged students missed out due to unavailability of their parents’ devices during the scheduled lessons. The main reasons contributing to the ineffectiveness of online lessons among lower income urban households is shown in the Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Students from lower-income urban households face multiple challenges of online learning.

Online learning not accessible to children with disabilities

Cannot get access to the free 1GB internet access for education

No Internet

Child does not want to learn

Internet connection not stable

No laptop, computer or tablet

I cannot supervise my children to learn / Children need face-to-face interaction with teachers

Children are not able to concentrate because there are no places to study

0 10 20 30 40 50

2%

7%

12%

14%

22%

23%

43%

49%

Source: UNICEF (2021).

Besides these factors, the burden of adapting to the new learning model in isolation, in addition to the uncertainty affecting academic performance has taken a huge toll on the mental health of students. A survey done of 958 students across 16 universities in Malaysia revealed that 31.1% were experiencing moderate anxiety, while a worrying 26.1% experienced severe anxiety (Irfan et al., 2020).

Furthermore, face-to-face extra-curricular activities in schools cannot be replicated online. The cancellation of most of these activities inhibits peer socialization and impedes the holistic developmentofreal-worldskillsincludingself-confidence,leadership,teamwork,problemsolving,analytical and creative thinking, among others.

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2.4. The rate of students dropping out of school

The dropout rates among school-going children at primary and secondary levels in Malaysia have registered a slight increase in 2020. As of November 2020, the primary school dropout rate increased from 0.12% to 0.13%, while the dropout rate for secondary school students increased from 1.14% to 1.26% during thepandemic(Malaysiakini,2020).Morealarmingly,nearlyonefifthof the 500 urban poor families surveyed revealed that their children had lost interest in schooling since the movement control order (MCO) was imposed, with 7% of upper secondary students opting not to return to classes (UNICEF, 2020). All in all, the impact that these student dropouts are more likely to face is future economic hardship, social stigma, fewer job opportunities and lower salaries.

3. Future Impact Of School Closures3.1. An overview of the need for quality education for a brighter future

The uncertainty posed by school closures will inevitably disrupt the advancement to new education levels and institutions. It is essential for everyone to have opportunities to access education. The SDG repeatedly expresses the importance of ensuring access to and completion of quality education for all children and youth, besides promoting lifelong learning opportunities. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, accessibility to equitable quality education and learning must be strategized appropriately. Education is about being holistic. Human personality is shaped in the development of one’s educational pathway. As UNESCO (2019) pointed out, it is for the promotion of understanding, tolerance, friendship and peace.

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The former Secretary-General of The United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, expounded that education is a fundamental right and the foundation for progress in every country (UNESCO, 2015). This is in line with health and nutrition, skilled and educated workers, sustainable development and climate change, partnership and collaboration. The country develops more progressively with the greater number of individuals receiving quality education. All the 17 SDGs are in relation to education. Using SDG-1 No Poverty as an example, the prevention of poverty to be transmitted between generations and the ability to escape chronic poverty births from education. Education is the enablement for paid formal employment to earn higher wages.

A notable 2020 report, Towards Universal Access to Higher Education: International Trends, explained that enrolment into higher education has doubled in the last two decades – 19% to 38% between the years 2000 and 2018 (IESALC, 2020). In Southeast Asia, the percentage stood at 45% in 2018 and we are soon reaching 50%. This evidence clearly signals more universal access to tertiary education. Notably, Malaysia should formulate policy recommendations to include the excluded and discriminated groups, combining academic provision with psychological and financial support. The report indicated that, “an increase in university enrolment tends to coincide with the increase in GDP per capita” (IESALC, 2020). With that, there is a need to address learning and access to higher education as education is seen as the catalyst for a country’s development and social justice reconciliation. A fair distribution of educational opportunities should also be part of the equation and keeping schools open would create a sustainable education.

© www.cas2021.com

Former Secretary-General of The United Nations,

Ban Ki-moon

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3.2. Future economic and social impact

How would the closing of schools widen the gap in learning, thus causing an economic impact? The losses in educational learning amongst students will lead to losses in potential earnings, disruption of work productivity and skills, as well as lifetime earnings. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Outlook (2021b) presented an estimated loss at $1.25 trillion present value for developing Asia, which is equal to 5.4% of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.

For Malaysia, this means a yearly GDP loss of around RM 80 billion8; such a loss is almost equivalent to the total GDP loss recorded between 2019 and 2020 (-5.6%; Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2021). Therefore, the losses produced by school closures weigh on Malaysia’s economic performance like another year of Covid-19 pandemic and related lockdowns. We can conclude that each year of school closure and educational disruption is adding a GDP loss equivalent to the ones recorded during the first year of Covid-19. If, as it seems likely, school disruptions may last until the end of 2022, this would produce GDP losses equivalent to RM 240 billion.

Photo by Kelvin Zyteng on Unsplash

8 Ministry of Finance (2020, p. IX) estimated, for 2021, a GDP of around RM 1,450,830 million.

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To put it in other terms, each year of school closure and educational disruptions will cost Malaysia like 33.3 days (1.11 months) of MCO 1.0-type lockdown (whose estimated losses were RM 2.4 billion per day; Lee, 2021) or 114.3 days (3.81 months) of MCO 2.0-type lockdown (whose estimated losses were RM 700 million per day; Lee, 2021).

The report further explained that «a person’s earnings increase with more years of schooling». Averagely, the loss of each schooling year is equivalent to 9.7% less in potential learnings. In Southeast Asia, every student affected by school closures will lose an estimated $167 on a yearly basis. This value is equal to 1.9% decline in average annual earnings as shown in Table 1 (Asian Development Bank, 2021b). This means that, by conservatively estimating school disruptions for three years, Malaysian future workers can have earnings almost 6% lower than the current level.

Table 1: Due to school closures, losses in earnings per student per year in Southeast Asia is $167.

Losses in earnings per student per year, current $

% decline in earnings per student per year

Baseline average earnings per

worker per year, current $Subregion Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic

Central Asia 39 56 78 1.1 1.6 2.2 3,552

East Asia 332 771 1,344 1.7 4.0 7.0 19,182

South Asia 68 78 92 3.5 4.0 4.7 1,948

Southeast Asia 105 167 247 1.2 1.9 2.9 8,663

The Pacific 30 42 58 0.5 0.6 0.9 6,509

Developing Asia 99 180 286 1.3 2.4 3.8 7,637

Source: Asian Development Bank (2021b).

Table 2: Estimated losses in earnings per student per year in Malaysia.

Average Yearly Salary

% Decline in earnings per student yearLosses in earnings per students per year

Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic

General Average RM 38,688.00

1.20% 1.90% 2.90%

RM 464.26 RM 735.07 RM 1,121.95

No Certificate RM 21,120.00 RM 253.44 RM 401.28 RM 612.48

SPM and below RM 28,164.00 RM 337.97 RM 535.12 RM 816.76

STPM/Certificate RM 35,052.00 RM 420.62 RM 665.99 RM 1,016.51

Diploma RM 45,072.00 RM 540.86 RM 856.37 RM 1,307.09

Degree RM 70,836.00 RM 850.03 RM 1,345.88 RM 2,054.24

In Table 2, the same estimation is done with reference to Malaysia.

Source:OurelaborationsondatafromDzulkefli(2020).

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Using the parameters introduced by the Asian Development Bank and basing our analysis on the Malaysia’s average earnings per worker in 2019, we estimate that each year of school closure and educational disruption could bring to a loss per worker of between RM 464.26 and RM 1,121.95. For individuals with a degree, such a loss could reach up to RM 2,054.24 per year.

TheUnitedNations(2020),inapolicybrief,furtherconfirmedtheimpact on education workforce remuneration and employment, based on the Education International survey report. The ripple effect caused that goes beyond education loss itself will likely contribute to higher earning gaps, as presented in the UN report. Also, the loss in working hours represent around 400 million full-time jobs (statistics from the International Labour Organization).

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, institutional learning was affected indirectly through income shocks. Notably, the economic downturn forced many into a state of poverty with increasing rate of unemployment and decreasing incomes. The ADB estimated that 162 million more people in developing Asia will live below the poverty threshold of $3.20 a day. Certainly, the number of households who are unable to continue supporting their children’s education will see an increase. Also, knowing that the indirect effects caused by the pandemic will hinder children from going to schools, especially those in the B40 and underprivileged groups. Consequently, the closure of schools will add on to the learning losses described and reduce future productivity and lifetime earnings.

Against this backdrop, Malaysia has used alternative learning options to make up for the learning loss. The remote learning modes adopted are through online platforms, television and take-home packages, but not radio-related learning methods. With the adoption of online technologies, more cost will be incurred as a result of the need for greater consumption of communication technology tools, internet connectivity, special training for educators, and the

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necessary equipment and resources to receive learning such as computer, internet access, mobile device, television, space and other forms of home-based technology support.

The Delve Initiative Report (2020) further reiterated the disruption of skills with the closing of schools. It is estimated that a quarter of the labour market in the UK will experience lower skills beyond 2080 due to the learning losses incurred during the lockdown. This will lead many young people into losing out on critical skills and growth in the future. Future generations will face severe negative economic consequences with the increase in the loss of learning as «earning levels are directly linked to education and skills». Even so, it depends on the provision that schools and families have, taking the requirements imposed on them to support the various ways of remote learning, which determines the actual loss of learning. Children from different socioeconomic backgrounds will be impacted with greater existing inequalities due to this gap in provision. Surely every student will be impacted by the closure of schools, but children from vulnerable and lower socioeconomic groups will face a much worse effect.

Photo by Thomas Park on Unsplash

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TheOECD2020 report confirmed that economieswith a lessskilled labour force will experience lower economic growth and that will negatively impact the whole welfare of society (Hanushek and Woessmann, 2020). In a knowledge-based economy, education equips people with the necessary skills which in return increases productivity. The disruption of learning will hinder the transmission of knowledge and skills to enhance and apply new ideas and innovations. This results in slow economic growth and technological progress. An average of about 10% higher income is associated with each schooling year, as stated in the report.

A school is a place for children to go to be educated. Unavoidably, any closure of schools will also elevate associated social costs, even more so for the vulnerable and marginalised groups. Various aspects of their lives will be deeply impacted, knowing the already existing inefficiencies, disruptions and disparities within the educationsystem. UNESCO (2021) pointed out the closing of schools will deprive growth and development opportunities for children and youths, especially with the underprivileged learners trapped in the lack access to educational opportunities beyond school.

Ultimately, we need to ensure that children and youths have the adaptability to return and stay in school once the closure is lifted. A school is a social hub for human interaction and social/curricular activity. An essential and experiential learning comes from the value one receives via social contact. Learning from peers within the school environment would create a better vibrancy of learning culture, which encourages the learning of knowledge, the application of skills and the instilling of values. Schools have to be rooted in the society as an entity to understand and advance intellectual, scientificandartisticknowledgetoeveryone.Startbyopeningthedoors for students, educators and parents to enter, and provide continuous teaching and learning.

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At this point, the government’s paramount focus should be on the mechanism to prevent learning losses from becoming a generational disaster to our labour market in the future. Certainly, this decision very much depends on current health circumstances. However, our main suggestion is that schools should be reopened, so that children can have a proper space for education as well as personal growth. Hence, the action recommendation proposed by this study is in support for school reopening in Malaysia.

Given the demographic of Covid-19 related deaths, it seems that schools are indeed the places where something more can be risked in terms of going back to normality. The trade-off analysis here presented points in the direction of the necessity to reopen schools, with the suggestions that are given below.

4.1. Mass testing

The gold standard for a safe reopening of schools under the current vaccination path can only be mass testing. Our way to see this is more radical than the usual way in which it is conceived; in fact, we have in mind not simply testing a large number of individuals (students, in this case), but to work in order to achieve the possibility of testing all students at the beginning of each school week (on Monday).Suchamethodwouldallowofficialstodetectinfectionsat an early stage and to isolate positive subjects before they have either chance to extensively spread the disease and develop severe symptoms.

Early detection, in fact, is key if we want to properly tackle the spread of the virus. At the current stage of research, the prevalence of asymptomatic cases is not precisely established. Despite early studies reported that asymptomatic cases accounted for 30 to 80%

Policy Recommendations4.

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of infections, more recent data suggest a rate of asymptomatic cases between 17 and 30% (Rasmussen and Saskia, 2021, p. 1206). With regard to the infectivity of symptomless individuals, instead, the findingsof various sourcesof data arequite conflicting:whileone study suggested that at least 65%of transmissionsoccurs prior to the onset of symptoms, another one recorded only 12.6% of cases resulting from asymptomatic transmission (Rasmussen and Saksia, 2021, p. 1206).These elements aremakingmore it difficult to implementmeasures ofan effective widespread prevention. Such a challenge can be moderated only by scaling up testing activity.

However, to step up activity, in terms of testing, it is necessary to adopt a change in perspective with regard to the tests themselves. The clinical tests currently being used are designed for use with symptomatic people, they are not cheap (and they do not need to be), while they require high analytical sensitivity to return a definitiveclinicaldiagnosis(Mina,ParkerandLarremore,2020,e120(1)).Instead,toproperlyfightasymptomaticspread,testsneedtoproduceresultsquickly,tobecheap and easy to execute. (Mina, Parker and Larremore, 2020, e120(1)-e120(2)). As explained by Mina, Parker and Larremore (2020, e120(2)-e120(3)):

By several criteria, the benchmark standard clinical polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) test fails when used in a surveillance regimen.[…]ForaneffectiveCovidfilterthatwillstopthispandemic,weneedteststhatcanenable regimens that will capture most infections while they are still infectious. Thesetestsexisttodayintheformofrapidlateral-flowantigentests,andrapidlateral-flowtestsbasedonCRISPRgene-editingtechnologyareonthehorizon.Such tests are cheap (<$5), can be produced in the tens of millions or more per week, and could be performed at home, opening the door to effective Covid filter regimens.Lateral-flowantigen testsdonothaveanamplification step, sotheir analytic limits of detection are 100 or 1000 times higher than that of the benchmark test, but that is largely inconsequential if the goal is to identify people who are currently transmitting virus. SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that grows quickly inside the body, so by the time a benchmark PCR test becomes positive, the virus is well into exponential growth. At that point, it is probably hours, not days, before the virus grows by orders of magnitude, reaching the detection thresholds of currently available cheap and rapid point-of-care tests. It is after this point, when people would have positive results on both tests, that they would be expected to become infectious.

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Figure 3: High-Frequency Testing with Low Analytical Sensitivity versus Low-Frequency Testing with High Analytical Sensitivity.

Source: Guglielmi (2021, p. 203).

Figure 3 here below makes the point.

In the graph, a person’s infection trajectory (blue line) is shown in the context of two surveillance regimens (circles) with different analytic sensitivity. «The low-analytic-sensitivity assay is administered frequently and the high-analytic-sensitivity assay infrequently. Both testing regimens detect the infection (orange circles), but only the high-frequency test detects it during the transmission window (shading), in spite of its lower analytic sensitivity, whichmakesitamoreeffectivefilter.Thewindowduringwhichpolymerasechainreaction(PCR) detects infections before infectivity (green) is short, whereas the corresponding postinfectious but PCR-detectable window (purple) is long» (Mina, Parker and Larremore, 2020, e120(2)).

Furthermore, since the uncontrolled spread drives new strains, mass testing with rapid tests would reduce opportunities of the virus to mutate and improve our ability to detect emerging strains quickly. Such ability remains crucial since we cannot wait for the vaccination rollouttobecompletedandsincetheefficacyofthecurrentvaccinesonthenewstrainsis yet to be proven (Sparrow, 2021).

A population-wide rapid antigen testing has been used in Slovakia in late 2020. The observed prevalence decreased by 58% within one week in the 45 counties that were subject to two roundsofmasstesting;thefigure,whenadjustedforanepidemicgrowthof4.4%perdaypreceding the mass testing campaign, increased to 70% (Pavelka et al., 2021).

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The Rockefeller Foundation (2020, p. 15) was also advocating for mass testing as the key element in order to keep schools, workplaces and communities open, recognizing that the development of rapid tests is key for an effective and affordable screening. Furthermore, among the strong advocates formass and rapid testingwefindEconomics Nobel Laureate Paul Romer, who clearly explained how we should indeed move toward weekly testing and isolating those who are tested positive while allowing the others to get back to normal lives (Romer and Garber, 2020; Chotiner, 2020). This is the best way for achieving targeted immunity and avoid further economic losses.

An objection may be raised about the potential cost of the program. In Malaysia there are around 2.7 million students enrolled in primary schools and a little more than 2 million in secondary schools, for a total of around 4.7 million students9. Taking the lower estimation of the rapid cost test – USD 5 (RM 20.7) – the mass testing project would have a cost of USD 23.5 million (RM 97 million) per week, and the amount for school employees then needs to be added. However, we are not advocating here for a fully subsidized program, quite the contrary. With regards to private and internationalschools,webelievethat itwouldnotbedifficult toconvinceschoolsandparentstofinanciallysupporttheprogram.This is because international school fees in Malaysia range between approximately RM 15,000 and RM 100,000 per year (Prior, 2019), which means a regular cost of between RM 1,250 and RM 8,500

Medical photo created by freepik - www.freepik.com

9 MOE 2019 Quick Facts, elaborated by Bait Al-Amanah House of Trust.

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per month. The rapid test cost of RM 20.7 per week, or RM 82.8 per month, would represent an increase between 6.6% and 0.97% permonth.Withthesefiguresinmind,itisnotdifficulttoimaginethat schools and parents would easily be able to participate in the program (with parents paying for their children and schools paying for their staff), while the government could focus in only supporting mass testing with a subsidy for those situations in which affordability is really an issue.

4.2. Other recommendations

There are other general considerations which would help justify a safe reopening of the schools. First of all, the school reopening decision should be constantly monitored and evidence-based, so that it alleviates both health and safety as well as education concerns. One blanket general policy for the totality of schools should be avoided. Education authorities should engage with key officials and significant stakeholders, such as parents, teachers,and school administrations to identify the learning losses and the educational gaps that can be addressed when schools reopen. For instance, reopening of preprimary and primary schools should be prioritized because the returns to early childhood education are the highest (Asian Development Bank, 2021a).

Secondly, engagement with health officials is crucial as they can counselauthoritiesonthereopeningofschoolsbyusingscientificevidence as a base to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 transmission. To expedite schools reopening while curbing the spread of virus, health authorities should enforce strict health and sanitary protocol in schools as well as faster vaccination for students, school staff, and even parents (but always on a voluntary basis, recognizing that early testing remains the gold standard to avoid infections).

Thirdly, education authorities must consider an inclusive approach to reduce the disparities between students once schools begin reopening. Socioeconomic inequality has become a serious problem during the pandemic, causing educational inequality among students. Upon reopening, schools should use simple and

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quick diagnostic tools to assess each student’s learning gap from other students. Then, school curricula and examinations must adapt to remedy any losses and pick up where students have left off. On the non-academic side, schools should also include strategies for marginalized students, such as providing adequate health and nutritional assistances. In order to do this, the government should emphasize educational recovery as much as health recovery in their proposed economic stimulus packages (United Nations, 2020).

Finally, in addition to the existing established health measures set by the Ministry of Health, the following is a list of practical precautionary suggestions for each school:

(i) If available, schools should convert additional space into larger classrooms to maintain safe physical distancing among students and teachers.

(ii) If facilities cannot be expanded, consider staggered daily calendars for different students to avoid crowding.

(iii) Students should be grouped together in protective bubbles, where each group stays together throughout the school day and cannot mix with other bubbles.

(iv) Schools must ensure transparent communication lines with healthofficials.

The government must be aware that unprecedented situations, namely the coronavirus pandemic, can occur, and during those times the existing education policies are lacking and can cause a loss of learning in the long run. Therefore, this crisis is an opportunity for Malaysia to reimagine its education system and to improve the level of resilience in our students’ education.

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Covid-19 came to affect the Malaysian education system, which was already suffering from several problems, mainly due to centralization issues. The policies implemented to try to curb the spread of the virus – namely, the school closures associated to several lockdowns – has heavily weighed down on the Malaysian society.

It seems, however, that these measures were not necessary, first and foremostbecause thenumberofCoviddeathsamongindividuals in school age is extremely low and therefore the risk can be minimized with less radical measures; secondly, because schoolclosureshavenotbeenproventobesignificantlyimportantin containing the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

While producing very limited advantages, the enforced closing of Schools, however, instead are a source of heavy cost. First of all, in terms of educational losses in the learning process: even in an optimistic scenario of high effectiveness of remote learning relative to classroom learning, Malaysia’s learning losses comprises a low rate of loss of0.45 years (5.4 months). However, in the pessimistic scenario, Malaysia has the highest learning losses across all the Asian developing countries surveyed, with an alarming rate of loss of 0.95 years (11.4 months).

Furthermore, school closures are extremely regressive, as they affect mostly families in which both parents must work and most Malaysian families are those with an inferior degree of accessibility to electronic devices and proper internet coverage.

From the economic perspective, school closures could cost, in terms of GDP losses, RM 80 billion per year ; in other words, each year of disrupted physical school operations will cost Malaysia the equivalent to 33.3 days (1.11 months) of MCO 1.0-type lockdown or 114.3 days (3.81 months) of MCO 2.0-type lockdown.

Conclusions5.

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Thiswillbereflectedalsointermsoffutureexpectedearninglosses.Each year of disrupted physical school operations could bring an expected economic loss per worker of between RM 464.26 and RM 1,121.95. For individuals with a degree, such a loss could reach up to RM 2,054.24 per year.

Given such a trade-off analysis, we advocate for an immediate reopening of schools which should be accompanied by a planned implementation of mass and frequent testing, which means testing each student every Monday of each week. This approach would allow the early detection and isolation of positive cases, preventing the asymptomatic contagions from spreading through the student bodies of schools. The limited costs of the program could easily be borne by schools and families, while the government should provide subsidies only for real poverty situations.

We call for an immediate interruption of generalized blanket school closure policies, where future school closures should be decided oncasebycaseandonthegroundsofscientificevidence.Inthisregard,engagementwithhealthofficialsiscrucial.

Education authorities must consider an inclusive approach to reduce the disparities between students once schools begin reopening, addressing the educational and financial inequalitiescreated amongst students and families by government lockdowns and school closures in Malaysia.

Asafinalmeasure,creativemeasuresshouldbeintroducedinorderto keep schools open; among them, better use of larger spaces, outdoor schooling, protective bubbles and effective communication.

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